Amazon (AMZN) Stock Today: AI Chips, Italy Settlement and 2030 Price Targets – What Investors Need to Know (Dec 5, 2025)

Updated December 5, 2025

Key takeaways

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is trading around $229, down roughly 1.4% today, leaving the stock up only low‑single digits for 2025 and lagging the S&P 500’s mid‑teens gain. ^[1]
Fresh December 5 headlines include a €180 million ($210 million) settlement in Italy over tax and labour probes and continued investor skepticism despite bullish AI commentary from AWS re:Invent 2025. ^[2]
Wall Street remains firmly bullish: 46 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis rate AMZN a Strong Buy with a $283.85 average 12‑month target (~24% upside), while MarketBeat’s survey puts the consensus nearer $296 (~29% upside). ^[3]
Long‑term AI and cloud story: new Trainium3 UltraServers, Graviton5 CPUs, and Amazon Nova models were unveiled at AWS re:Invent 2025, alongside a plan to invest up to $50 billion in AI and supercomputing for U.S. government clients. ^[4]
A new 2030 scenario analysis from 24/7 Wall St. pegs AMZN at $431 (bull), $250 (base), or $77 (bear), highlighting how outcomes hinge on AWS growth, ad margins, and capital discipline. ^[5]

Amazon stock today: price, performance and valuation

As of mid‑day trading on December 5, 2025, Amazon shares change hands near $229 on the Nasdaq, down about 1.4% on the session.

Recent data from MarketBeat shows: ^[6]

Last close: ~$229
52‑week range: roughly $161 – $259
Forward P/E: low‑30s
Market cap: around $2.4–2.5 trillion

Despite a powerful rebound from 2022–2023 lows, AMZN has spent most of 2025 moving sideways. One recent analysis notes that, after staging a ~60% rally earlier in the year, the stock is now on track to finish roughly flat for 2025, even as peers in the “Magnificent Seven” press to new highs. ^[7]

CoinCentral’s performance breakdown tells a similar story: AMZN is up only about 6% year‑to‑date, while the S&P 500 has gained more than 16% in 2025. ^[8]

That combination—strong earnings but muted share price progress—is exactly why several strategists describe Amazon as a potential “catch‑up trade” rather than a momentum name.

On basic valuation metrics, the market is still paying a premium for Amazon’s growth and cash‑flow profile, but not at the nose‑bleed multiples seen earlier in the decade:

Forward revenue growth expected in the low‑ to mid‑teens
EPS growth projected in the low‑30% range for 2025 and low‑teens for 2026 ^[9]
P/E in the low‑30s – richer than the S&P 500, but below some AI and cloud peers

Today’s biggest AMZN headlines (Dec 5, 2025)

1. Italy settlement removes a legal overhang – at a price

The most traditional “risk” headline hitting Amazon today is coming out of Europe.

According to Reuters, an Italian logistics unit of Amazon has paid about €180 million (around $210 million) to the Italian tax authorities and scrapped a staff‑monitoring system as part of a settlement that ends a probe into alleged tax fraud and illegal labour practices. ^[10]

Prosecutors had previously seized €121 million from the unit in 2024 as part of an investigation into the use of cooperatives that allegedly helped avoid VAT and lower social security contributions. ^[11]
Amazon says it has “clarified” its position with authorities and that regulators recognized the standards of its delivery‑partner model. ^[12]

Why it matters for the stock:

The payout is immaterial relative to Amazon’s cash flows, but it reinforces a pattern of regulatory and labour scrutiny in Europe.
Investors may see this as removing one near‑term legal uncertainty, while also reminding markets that regulatory risk is an ongoing cost of doing business at Amazon’s scale.

2. Sansiri gen‑AI launch on AWS vs. weak share reaction

Separately, CoinCentral highlights that Thai developer Sansiri PLC has launched a generative‑AI “ChatX Assistant” on Amazon Bedrock, using AWS infrastructure in Thailand to support over 500 real‑estate projects and automate more than 50,000 invoices per month. ^[13]

Yet AMZN fell about 1.4% on that news, underscoring how positive product announcements are not automatically rewarded in the current market tape. ^[14]

The gulf between deepening AI adoption and short‑term stock reaction is a recurring theme in today’s commentary.

3. “Show‑me” mode on AI: Gene Munster vs. AWS

A widely read piece on Benzinga captures this disconnect. Tech investor Gene Munster argues that Wall Street is now in a “show me” phase on AI, even as AWS CEO Matt Garman describes AI demand as “skyrocketing.” ^[15]

Key points from that report: ^[16]

At AWS re:Invent 2025, Amazon emphasized that:
- AWS added 3.8 gigawatts of data‑center capacity over the past year.
- AI demand remains strong, and AWS is “not slowing anything down” in AI infrastructure.
- New Trainium3 AI accelerators and AI Factories are meant to anchor enterprise AI for years.
Munster notes that despite some of the most bullish AI commentary yet, mega‑cap AI names—including Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta—barely budged following the speeches.
He believes investors now want hard numbers in upcoming earnings and 2026 capex guidance, not just optimistic commentary.

In other words, Amazon’s AI story is big and getting bigger, but markets want to see sustained revenue and profit acceleration before rerating the shares.

4. Trainium3, Graviton5 and the AWS AI hardware roadmap

At AWS re:Invent 2025, Amazon laid out one of its most detailed AI hardware roadmaps to date.

From AWS’s own recap and external coverage: ^[17]

Trainium2 today, Trainium3 next, Trainium4 on the horizon
- CEO Andy Jassy has said Trainium2 is already a multi‑billion‑dollar run‑rate business, with capacity fully subscribed and delivering 30–40% better price/performance than rival options for many AI workloads. ^[18]
- Trainium3, built on 3‑nanometer process technology, is expected to roughly double per‑chip performance vs. Trainium2 and improve energy efficiency by about 40%. ^[19]
- The Economic Times reports that Amazon is positioning Trainium3 as up to 4.4x faster and roughly 50% cheaper for AI training versus prior generations, underscoring its aim to push down the cost of training large models on AWS. ^[20]
AWS Trainium2/Trainium3 at massive scale
- A NextPlatform analysis estimates 500,000 Trainium2 chips are already deployed in “Project Rainier,” Anthropic’s supercluster on AWS, with a plan to scale that to 1 million chips. ^[21]
- AWS expects Trainium3 to ramp in volume beginning early 2026, with AI capacity likely doubling again by 2027 as AWS data‑center power roughly doubles. ^[22]
Graviton5 CPUs
- On the compute side, AWS introduced Graviton5, its fifth‑gen ARM‑based CPU, promising its best price/performance yet for a wide range of workloads on new M9g instances. ^[23]

Together with new Amazon Nova models (Nova 2 Sonic, Lite, Forge and Omni), and upgrades across SageMaker, Bedrock, S3 Vectors, and AgentCore, the message from re:Invent is clear: AWS wants to be the default platform for training and running advanced AI agents. ^[24]

5. Long‑term AI and government cloud spend: $50B infrastructure plan

Looking beyond commercial cloud, Amazon has also announced a plan to invest up to $50 billion from 2026 onward to build dedicated AI and high‑performance computing infrastructure for U.S. government agencies. ^[25]

The program will add roughly 1.3 GW of compute capacity across AWS Top Secret, Secret and GovCloud regions.
Agencies will get access to SageMaker AI, Bedrock, Amazon Nova, Anthropic Claude, Trainium chips and Nvidia GPUs on secured AWS regions. ^[26]

From an equity perspective, investors see this as:

A strong vote of confidence from the U.S. government in AWS security and performance.
A signal that AI infrastructure capex will remain intense, with large, long‑lived projects that can support AWS revenue but weigh on free cash flow in the short term.

6. The OpenAI deal and AWS capacity crunch narrative

CoinCentral also points to a seven‑year, $38 billion cloud deal with OpenAI, under which AWS will provide large‑scale Nvidia GPU capacity for model training and deployment. ^[27]

Combined with earlier Business Insider reporting about AI capacity crunches that temporarily pushed some workloads to rival clouds, the partnership suggests: ^[28]

AWS has moved from playing defense on AI capacity to locking in marquee AI tenants.
Amazon is aggressively scaling both homegrown silicon (Trainium) and Nvidia GPU clusters to stay competitive with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud.

Earnings backdrop: Q3 2025 numbers look strong

Underneath this torrent of AI news, Amazon’s Q3 FY 2025 results show a company firing on multiple cylinders.

Independent analysis of the quarter highlights: ^[29]

Net sales:$180.2 billion, up 13% year‑over‑year, beating the roughly $177.8 billion consensus.
Segment revenue:
- North America: $106.3B (+11% YoY)
- International: $40.9B (+14% YoY)
- AWS: $33.0B (+20% YoY), marking a notable re‑acceleration in cloud growth.
Operating income: about $17.4B, with margins just under 10%; excluding roughly $4.3B in special charges, underlying operating income would have been about $21.7B. ^[30]
Net income:$21.2B, up around 38% YoY, with diluted EPS of $1.95, up mid‑30s percent from a year earlier. ^[31]

AWS remains the profit engine, with ~20% revenue growth and mid‑30s operating margins, even as Amazon pours billions into AI‑heavy capex. ^[32]

At the same time, Amazon’s retail and advertising businesses continue to benefit from logistics efficiencies and Prime ecosystem scale:

Over the past decade, Amazon’s revenue climbed from about $89 billion to $638 billion, while net income swung from a small loss to more than $59 billion in 2024. ^[33]
The advertising segment generated about $56.2 billion in 2024 revenue, making Amazon the third‑largest digital ad platform behind Alphabet and Meta, with higher margins than its retail operations. ^[34]

The big caveat: several commentators note that free cash flow has been temporarily pressured by a surge in AI and data center capital spending, and that investors are closely watching whether those investments translate into sustainably higher cash flows in 2026–2027. ^[35]

Wall Street forecasts: 12‑month targets and 2030 scenarios

12‑month analyst targets

Across major data aggregators, analyst sentiment toward Amazon stock remains decidedly positive.

StockAnalysis (Benzinga/Finnhub data): ^[36]

Coverage: 46 analysts
Consensus rating:Strong Buy
Average 12‑month price target:$283.85
Implied upside from recent price: about 24%
Range:
- High: $340 (roughly 49% upside)
- Median: $295
- Low: $195 (~15% downside)

MarketBeat (in its “Wall Street’s Sleeping Giant” and institutional‑flow coverage) shows similar optimism: ^[37]

Coverage: ~61 analysts
Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy” (virtually all Buy/Strong Buy, with a handful of Holds)
Average target: ~$296.11, about 29% above recent prices
Target range:$250 – $360

Several high‑profile firms have reiterated or raised their targets in the last few days:

Rosenblatt: $305 (Strong Buy)
Wedbush: $340 (Buy)
Citizens: $300 (Buy)
BofA Securities: raised from $272 to $303 (Strong Buy)
Wells Fargo: nudged its target from $292 to $295 (Buy) ^[38]

The average of these fresh targets sits comfortably above $300, implying that many analysts think Amazon can re‑rate higher once the market sees more evidence of durable AI‑driven growth and margin resilience.

Wall Street’s fundamental forecasts

Beyond price targets, consensus models show a still‑healthy growth profile: ^[39]

Revenue 2025: ~$729B (up ~14% vs. 2024)
Revenue 2026: ~$811B (up ~11%)
EPS 2025: about $7.28 (up ~32%)
EPS 2026: about $8.13 (up ~12%)

In other words, analysts expect double‑digit top‑line and earnings growth through at least 2026, even after the huge scale Amazon has already reached.

2030 bull, base and bear scenarios

For a longer‑term lens, a new 24/7 Wall St. deep dive lays out three explicit 2030 price scenarios for Amazon stock: ^[40]

Bull case – $431 per share
- Assumes AWS grows revenue at about 18% CAGR through 2030 and generates roughly $86B in operating profit by then.
- E‑commerce margins expand as robotics and logistics efficiencies compound, contributing around $30B in operating profit.
- Advertising keeps compounding at mid‑teens growth with ~40% margins, reaching roughly $50B in operating profits.
- Total operating profit near $150B, with Amazon valued at 35x that figure for a $5.25T market cap—about 88% above today’s share price.
Bear case – $77 per share
- Cloud competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud erodes AWS share, slowing profit growth.
- International and new‑venture losses re‑emerge, and investors tire of “moonshot” spending.
- The market applies a much more modest 20x P/E multiple to a still‑growing but lower‑expectation Amazon, implying ~66% downside from current levels.
Base case – $250 per share
- Uses Wall Street forecasts that see revenue rising from ~$710B in 2025 to about $1.15T by 2030, and net income climbing from about $48.9B to ~$110.7B.
- Haircutting that to $100B in net income and applying a 26x P/E, 24/7 Wall St. lands at around $250—only about 9% above today’s price.

The punchline:

Upside is meaningful if Amazon can convert its AI, AWS and advertising investments into accelerating profits.
Downside exists if competition or capital misallocation keeps margins from scaling, despite massive revenue growth.

Bull vs. bear case for AMZN right now

Bull case: why optimists like Amazon here

AWS re‑acceleration and AI tailwinds
- AWS has re‑accelerated to around 20% year‑on‑year growth as GenAI demand scales, reversing the deceleration seen in 2022–2023. ^[41]
- Heavy investment in Trainium, Nova, and AI Factories positions AWS as a full‑stack AI infrastructure provider, not just another GPU renter. ^[42]
Advertising and retail still have room to run
- Amazon controls a massive share of U.S. e‑commerce and has grown ad revenue to more than $56B per year, with structurally higher margins than retail. ^[43]
- As Prime Video ads and live sports ramp, advertising can continue to outgrow the core retail business.
Valuation vs. peers and growth profile
- A low‑30s P/E for double‑digit expected revenue and EPS growth, plus strong network effects and a dominant cloud franchise, looks reasonable—even conservative—to many growth investors. ^[44]
Massive AI and government contracts
- Deals like the OpenAI $38B cloud agreement and the planned $50B government AI/HPC buildout create sticky, long‑duration revenue streams in AI infrastructure. ^[45]
Stock “consolidation” instead of euphoric melt‑up
- After a big rebound off the 2022 lows, AMZN has spent much of 2025 moving sideways while fundamentals improved—some analysts see that as healthy consolidation that could set up a catch‑up move if risk appetite remains strong into 2026. ^[46]

Bear case: what could go wrong

Enormous capex and free‑cash‑flow risk
- NextPlatform and others estimate AWS may be on track to double data‑center power again by 2027, implying hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spend across the industry. ^[47]
- If AI spending outruns realized demand—or pricing pressure intensifies—Amazon could see compressed returns on invested capital and lower free cash flow than bulls expect.
Cloud share and margin pressure
- Azure and Google Cloud are fighting aggressively for GenAI workloads; earlier in 2025, reports suggested AWS capacity issues pushed some customers to rivals. ^[48]
- To defend share, AWS may need to cut prices or offer more incentives, pressuring margins.
Regulatory and labour risks
- The Italy settlement shows how costly labour and tax disputes can be; more could emerge in other geographies. ^[49]
- Ongoing antitrust scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe remains a structural overhang for big tech platforms.
Multiple already embeds a lot of optimism
- At a low‑30s P/E, Amazon is not “cheap” on traditional metrics. If growth slows even modestly, the stock could de‑rate toward a market‑like multiple, especially if sentiment toward AI cools further.
Execution risk on AI roadmap
- Winning the AI infrastructure race requires flawless execution—from chip tape‑outs to data‑center buildouts, software ecosystems and go‑to‑market. Any misstep (delays, outages, security issues) could hand share to Microsoft, Google or emerging GPU‑rich challengers.

Is Amazon stock a buy after today’s news?

From a news and forecast standpoint, December 5, 2025 represents a microcosm of the broader Amazon story:

Fundamentals: Q3 showed robust double‑digit growth and strong profitability, especially at AWS. ^[50]
AI roadmap: AWS is doubling down on custom silicon, Nova models and AI Factories, plus signing giant customers like OpenAI and the U.S. government. ^[51]
Risks: Regulatory settlements (Italy), capital‑intensive AI infrastructure, and a market that is excited about AI but increasingly in “prove it” mode. ^[52]
Valuation: The sell‑side still sees 20–30% upside over the next year, but longer‑term scenario work shows everything from sharp downside to nearly doubling by 2030, depending on how AWS, ads and margins evolve. ^[53]

Whether AMZN is a buy for you depends on:

Your time horizon (multi‑year vs. short‑term trade)
Your tolerance for volatility in high‑capex, AI‑exposed names
How confident you are that AWS will remain a profit‑rich leader in cloud and AI infrastructure through the second half of the decade

For long‑term investors comfortable with large‑cap tech and AI infrastructure risk, today’s combination of strong underlying numbers, ongoing AI build‑out, and sluggish 2025 share performance is exactly why many analysts continue to rate Amazon a Buy/Strong Buy. For more risk‑averse or income‑focused investors, the heavy AI capex, regulatory noise and still‑premium valuation may justify waiting for a clearer entry point.

Important: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.