Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is ending 2025 in an unusual position: the business is firing on all cylinders, but the stock has badly lagged both the S&P 500 and its “Magnificent Seven” peers. At the same time, Wall Street targets are being ratcheted higher, Amazon has just unveiled a $35 billion India investment focused on AI, and multiple analysts are calling for a “monster” 2026 for the stock. [1]
Below is a detailed look at today’s Amazon stock price, the latest news from December 10, 2025, and what current forecasts say about AMZN for 2026 and beyond.
Amazon stock today: price and market snapshot
- Current price: about $227.92 per share in midday U.S. trading on December 10, 2025, up roughly 0.4–0.5% on the day. [2]
- Market cap: around $2.4 trillion, based on recent data. [3]
- Trend in 2025: most recent analyses peg Amazon’s year‑to‑date gain at only ~4–7%, versus roughly +16% for the S&P 500, leaving AMZN one of the worst performers among the big tech leaders. [4]
According to technical analysis from Investing.com published today, Amazon shares have cooled after a multi‑month rally and now sit just below their 50‑day moving average (around $228.65), while still well above the 200‑day moving average (~$214.93). The relative strength index (RSI) around 46 points to fading short‑term momentum but no major technical breakdown. [5]
- Short‑term technical view:
- Price slightly under the 50‑day average → near‑term neutral / mild bearish.
- Price comfortably above the 200‑day average → long‑term uptrend intact.
- A decisive break above $240 is seen as the next bullish trigger; a drop below $220 could invite a test of the 200‑day line. [6]
Big news today: fresh analyst upgrades and a $35 billion India AI bet
Guggenheim initiates Amazon with a Buy and a $300 price target
- Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel initiated coverage of Amazon today with a “Buy” rating and a $300 price target. The stock closed at $227.92 on Tuesday, implying roughly 31–32% upside to his target. [7]
- Data compiled by Quiver Quantitative shows 36 analysts have issued targets for AMZN in the last six months, with a median target of $300. Recent bullish targets include:
- Rosenblatt: $305
- Wedbush: $340
- Bank of America: $303
- Citizens: $300
- Wells Fargo: $295
- Oppenheimer: $305 [8]
Taken together, today’s Guggenheim call reinforces an already‑strong cluster of $295–$340 12‑month targets from major Wall Street firms.
Amazon announces a $35 billion India investment focused on AI and exports
Separately, Amazon has made one of its largest international commitments ever:
- The company announced it will invest more than $35 billion in India by 2030 to:
- Expand artificial intelligence capabilities and cloud infrastructure.
- Boost logistics and operations.
- Increase India‑based exports from over $20 billion to $80 billion.
- Help create around 1 million new jobs in India by 2030. [9]
Amazon says the investment aims to bring AI benefits to up to 15 million small businesses in India, underlining how central AWS, data centers and AI services have become to the company’s long‑term growth story. [10]
This move also keeps Amazon in lockstep with tech giants like Microsoft and Google, which have announced their own multibillion‑dollar AI and cloud commitments in India. [11]
What Wall Street thinks: consensus ratings and price targets for AMZN
Across major data providers, Amazon remains one of the most highly rated large‑cap stocks:
- MarketBeat:
- 61 analysts tracked.
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”.
- Breakdown: 3 Hold, 57 Buy, 1 Strong Buy.
- Average 12‑month price target:$295.43, implying roughly 30% upside from around $228.
- Target range: $218 (low) to $360 (high). [12]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 47 analysts → “Strong Buy” consensus.
- Average price target: about $284.19 (≈24–25% upside from current levels).
- Target range: roughly $195–$340. [13]
- 24/7 Wall St. (long‑term model):
- Cites a Wall Street median one‑year target near $296, consistent with other aggregators. [14]
In short: market data providers cluster around $285–$300 as the “typical” one‑year target for AMZN, with a handful of top‑end targets at $340.
Long‑term forecasts: 2026 and the 2030 horizon
“Monster 2026” and the sluggish 2025 setup
Multiple commentators today highlight the same paradox:
- Amazon’s stock is up only mid‑single digits in 2025, versus roughly +16% for the S&P 500, and is tied with Tesla as one of the worst‑performing “Magnificent Seven” names this year. [15]
- The Motley Fool authors (hosted on Nasdaq and elsewhere) argue that this underperformance is largely about valuation, not fundamentals: Amazon traded around 30x forward earnings for much of 2025 while only growing revenue about 10% annually, leaving limited room for multiple expansion in the short run. [16]
Those same analysts, however, expect 2026 to be much stronger, because Amazon’s fastest‑growing segments (AWS and advertising) are also its highest‑margin businesses, causing earnings to grow faster than revenue. [17]
A separate 24/7 Wall St. piece on December 9 notes that AMZN has returned only about 4% in 2025, but suggests this “slow” year may set the stage for a meaningful rally in 2026 as AI and advertising profits compound. [18]
24/7 Wall St. 2025–2030 model
In a detailed model published today, 24/7 Wall St.:
- Projects Amazon’s revenue rising to roughly $1.15 trillion by 2030, with net income around $131 billion, driven by AWS, advertising and more profitable e‑commerce. [19]
- Estimates the company could be worth around $2.6 trillion in enterprise value by 2030, even assuming the price‑to‑earnings multiple compresses from roughly 50x to 35x as the business matures. [20]
- Provides a year‑end share‑price path (rounded):
- 2025: ~$251 (≈10% upside from today)
- 2026: ~$263
- 2027: ~$306
- 2028: ~$357
- 2029: ~$430
- 2030: ~$525 (roughly 130% upside vs. current price) [21]
This is just one model, but it shows how bullish some long‑range forecasts have become if Amazon continues to execute in cloud, AI and advertising.
Seeking Alpha: “Next mega‑cap to move”
A fresh analysis on Seeking Alpha today frames Amazon as “the next mega‑cap to move”:
- Argues Amazon is positioned to outperform peers thanks to its expansive data center footprint and AI infrastructure leadership.
- Suggests AWS could see around 25% revenue growth in 2026, accelerated by AI workloads and government contracts.
- Highlights digital advertising — including ads on Prime Video and live sports — as a high‑margin growth engine, potentially supporting a sum‑of‑the‑parts valuation as high as $5.5 trillion over time, across AWS, advertising and e‑commerce. [22]
While those numbers are aggressive and far from guaranteed, they illustrate the degree of optimism some analysts have around Amazon’s AI leverage.
Under the hood: Q1–Q3 2025 fundamentals
Regardless of near‑term volatility, Amazon’s reported financials for 2025 have been consistently strong:
Revenue and profit growth
- Q1 2025
- Net sales: $155.7 billion, up 9% year‑over‑year (10% in constant currency).
- AWS revenue: $29.3 billion, up 17% year‑over‑year. [23]
- Q2 2025
- Net sales: $167.7 billion, up 13% year‑over‑year (12% in constant currency).
- AWS sales: $30.9 billion, up 17.5% year‑over‑year.
- Net income: $18.2 billion, or $1.68 per diluted share. [24]
- Q3 2025
- Revenue: about $180.2 billion, beating estimates near $177.8 billion and growing roughly 12–13% year‑over‑year. [25]
- EPS: $1.95, comfortably ahead of the $1.56 consensus. [26]
- Net income: $21.2 billion; this includes $9.5 billion of pre‑tax gains related to Amazon’s investment in Anthropic. [27]
- Trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow: $130.7 billion, up 16% from a year earlier. [28]
AWS and advertising: the real profit engines
Several recent deep‑dives emphasise that AWS and Amazon’s advertising business now drive the majority of profits:
- In Q3, AWS:
- Grew revenue around 20% year‑over‑year and
- Contributed only ~18% of total sales but about two‑thirds of operating income. [29]
- Amazon Ads:
- Generated roughly $17.7 billion in Q3 revenue, up 24% year‑over‑year, making it one of the company’s fastest‑growing, highest‑margin segments. [30]
This mix is critical for the bull thesis: even if top‑line growth “only” runs in the low double digits, earnings and free cash flow can grow much faster as AWS and ads expand.
Valuation, insider activity and institutional positioning
Premium but not “bubble” valuation
GuruFocus data around the Q3 earnings release showed: [31]
- TTM sales: about $670 billion (3‑year revenue growth ~9.3% annually).
- Operating margin: ~11.4%; net margin ~10.5%.
- Return on equity (ROE): ~24.9%, signalling strong capital efficiency.
- P/E ratio: ~34x, above the broader market but far below Amazon’s own historical median near 86x, and with a price‑to‑sales ratio (~3.6x) still at the higher end of its three‑year range.
Other analysts, including 24/7 Wall St., note that Amazon’s 2025 P/E around 32–33x is meaningfully lower than the 40–50x band it traded in during 2024 — a key reason some see the stock as more attractive heading into 2026 even after the massive post‑pandemic run. [32]
Heavy insider selling vs. strong institutional demand
Quiver Quantitative and MarketBeat together paint a nuanced picture of who is buying and selling AMZN: [33]
- Insiders (executives and directors)
- 73 insider sales and zero insider purchases over the last six months.
- High‑profile sellers include Jeff Bezos, who sold about 25 million shares (~$5.65 billion), and top executives like CEO Andy Jassy and CFO Brian Olsavsky, who have also sold shares.
- Institutional investors
- A Quiver snapshot shows 2,937 institutions increased their AMZN positions recently vs. 2,286 that reduced them. [34]
- A MarketBeat report today notes that Howe & Rusling Inc. increased its Amazon stake by 4.5% to 139,838 shares, making AMZN about 2.3% of its portfolio and its 10th‑largest holding. [35]
- Another filing shows Napean Trading & Investment Co Singapore PTE Ltd cut its stake by 27.3%, to 72,567 shares, illustrating that not all funds are leaning the same way. [36]
- Overall, Amazon’s institutional ownership stands around 72%, with insiders holding roughly 11%. [37]
Heavy insider selling often worries investors, but large, scheduled sales are also common at mega‑cap companies after long rallies. The net increase in institutional holders and continued analyst upgrades suggest that professional money is still broadly constructive on AMZN, even as some funds take profits.
How analysts are framing the opportunity and the risks
Across the latest December 10th coverage, several themes repeat:
Key bullish drivers
- AI‑driven AWS growth
- AWS is seeing reaccelerating growth, powered by generative AI workloads, data‑intensive cloud migrations and big‑ticket government contracts. Some analysts now model around 20–25% AWS growth in 2026, up from the mid‑teens. [38]
- High‑margin ad business
- Amazon’s ad arm is now a $17+ billion‑per‑quarter business, compounding at mid‑20s growth and with margins likely comparable to Alphabet and Meta. [39]
- E‑commerce and logistics efficiency
- Retail growth has re‑accelerated, with Q3 showing about 10% growth in online stores and 12% growth in third‑party seller services, while logistics robotics and regionalized networks help lift margins. [40]
- Global expansion and India strategy
- The $35 billion India plan is not just about more warehouses; it is designed to:
- Build AI and cloud infrastructure.
- Support millions of small businesses.
- Quadruple exports from India over the next five years. [41]
- The $35 billion India plan is not just about more warehouses; it is designed to:
Main risks highlighted
- Valuation & multiple risk
- Even after some compression, AMZN still trades at a premium to the market; if growth slows or margins disappoint, there is room for multiple contraction. [42]
- Cloud competition
- AWS growth, though strong, is being compared against very fast‑growing rivals such as Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. If Amazon cannot stabilise or grow share over the next few years, some long‑term forecasts may prove optimistic. [43]
- High capex for AI and data centers
- Building out global AI infrastructure and data centers is capital‑intensive. Analysts flag that free‑cash‑flow growth could be lumpy as Amazon balances aggressive capex with shareholder returns. [44]
- Insider selling and volatility
- Heavy insider selling and recent technical cooling — the stock slipping below its 50‑day average — underscore that short‑term drawdowns are very possible, especially around macro events like Federal Reserve decisions. [45]
Bottom line: how today’s news changes the Amazon (AMZN) story
As of December 10, 2025, the picture that emerges is:
- Business performance: very strong across cloud, advertising and e‑commerce, with double‑digit revenue growth and expanding margins.
- Stock performance:lacklustre in 2025, up only mid‑single digits and trailing both the S&P 500 and other mega‑cap tech names. [46]
- Street view: still firmly positive, with consensus one‑year targets clustering around $285–$300, implying roughly 25–30% upside from current levels, and several high‑profile calls framing 2026 as a potential “monster” year for AMZN. [47]
- Strategic developments: the new $35 billion India AI investment underscores Amazon’s intent to be a global AI infrastructure leader, not just an online retailer. [48]
For investors and market‑watchers, the core debate now is not whether Amazon’s business is healthy — the numbers are clear — but whether today’s price already discounts that strength, or whether the combination of AI, cloud, ads and global expansion still leaves meaningful upside over the next 12–60 months.
Either way, the latest batch of research, forecasts and news suggests that Amazon will remain one of the most closely watched stocks on Wall Street in 2026, with AI‑driven cloud and advertising growth at the center of the story.
References
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