Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is back in the center of the AI-and-cloud investing narrative on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, after a Reuters report said the company is in talks to invest about $10 billion in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI—a potential deal that could value OpenAI at more than $500 billion. [1]
The headline hit a market already obsessed with who will supply the “picks and shovels” of generative AI: cloud capacity, power, and chips. In premarket trading, Amazon shares rose about 1.4% to roughly $225.68, according to a Refinitiv/Reuters market note. [2]
Below is what’s driving AMZN today, what the OpenAI angle could mean for AWS and Amazon’s custom silicon (Trainium), and how Wall Street forecasts are lining up into 2026.
Amazon stock today: why AMZN is moving on
The market’s immediate takeaway is simple: Amazon may be positioning AWS as a core infrastructure partner for OpenAI—not just as a cloud vendor, but as a capital partner tied to chip adoption and (potentially) product distribution.
Reuters reported that:
- Amazon may invest about $10 billion in OpenAI, though discussions are described as “very fluid.” [3]
- The deal could value OpenAI at more than $500 billion, with OpenAI also laying groundwork for an IPO that Reuters previously said could value the company at up to $1 trillion. [4]
- OpenAI signed a $38 billion deal in November to buy cloud services from Amazon. [5]
- The Information (cited by Reuters) said OpenAI plans to use Amazon’s Trainium chips, and OpenAI is also looking to sell an enterprise version of ChatGPT to Amazon—though it’s unclear whether this would include Amazon’s own in-app shopping features. [6]
This catalyst landed as broader U.S. equity futures edged higher while investors waited for more economic data and monitored geopolitical developments; in that same Reuters market wrap, Amazon was specifically singled out as a notable mover on the OpenAI investment report. [7]
OpenAI + Amazon: the strategic logic (AWS demand, Trainium validation, and “AI infrastructure economics”)
This isn’t just another “Big Tech invests in AI” headline. If the talks turn into a signed deal, it could reinforce three overlapping Amazon stock narratives:
1) AWS as the default “AI factory” for frontier-model customers
OpenAI’s compute appetite is enormous—training, fine-tuning, inference, enterprise deployments. Amazon already has the commercial relationship (the reported $38 billion cloud services agreement). [8]
Adding an equity investment would deepen the lock-in and likely strengthen Amazon’s hand in winning incremental workloads, expansion commitments, and long-duration contracts.
2) Trainium chips: from “cheaper alternative” to must-have enterprise standard
The Reuters report matters because it ties OpenAI’s potential fundraising to a very concrete hardware lever: Amazon Trainium. [9]
Amazon has been aggressively pushing its custom silicon into the AI stack, and its most recent quarterly update shows why management cares: in its Q3 2025 earnings release, Amazon said Trainium2 was fully subscribed, described it as a multi‑billion‑dollar business, and said it grew 150% quarter over quarter. [10]
If OpenAI adopts Trainium meaningfully, that’s a marquee validation point—especially in a market where Nvidia still dominates the “default” AI training narrative.
3) A broader OpenAI commercial partnership (beyond infrastructure)
Reuters also noted OpenAI is looking to sell an enterprise version of ChatGPT to Amazon. [11]
That matters because it hints at how Amazon might monetize AI beyond AWS usage—through enterprise productivity tooling, customer service, shopping experiences, advertising workflows, or internal operations.
One complication: Amazon is also a major investor in OpenAI rival Anthropic (a fact widely noted in tech coverage), which raises questions about how Amazon balances partnerships across competing model providers. [12]
Today’s forecasts and analyst views: what Wall Street is projecting for Amazon stock
Even before the OpenAI headlines, the Street has been building a more constructive AMZN setup into 2026, largely centered on AWS growth reacceleration and higher-margin businesses.
Consensus price targets
A widely followed compilation of analyst forecasts shows:
- Analyst consensus: “Strong Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target:$284.7
- Range:$195 (low) to $340 (high) [13]
That spread is a neat summary of the debate: bulls see AWS + ads + retail efficiency compounding, while bears worry about capex, competition, and the durability of AI demand.
A notable target increase tied to AWS checks
BMO Capital raised its Amazon price target to $304 from $300 in a note published December 16, 2025, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm cited channel checks suggesting accelerating cloud commitments and nudged its Q1 2026 AWS growth estimate to 24% (from 23%). [14]
Even though that note predates today’s OpenAI story by hours, it’s part of the same storyline: investors are trying to determine whether AWS growth is reaccelerating in a sustainable way as AI workloads scale.
“Best idea” calls heading into 2026
In commentary published today, Cowen’s research leadership described a constructive macro backdrop and highlighted Amazon as one of the firm’s “best ideas” for 2026, pointing to the company’s positioning in AI and cloud. [15]
Meanwhile, Zacks’ daily research roundup emphasized Amazon’s diversified revenue streams (e-commerce, AWS, advertising, streaming) but also flagged the obvious tradeoff: heavy AI/data-center investment can pressure margins and financial flexibility. [16]
Amazon fundamentals: the last quarter’s results and the key guidance investors keep quoting
To understand why “AI infrastructure” headlines move AMZN so fast, you have to look at what Amazon itself has been reporting.
In its Q3 2025 earnings release (for the quarter ended September 30, 2025), Amazon reported:
- Net sales:$180.2 billion, up 13% year over year [17]
- AWS segment sales:$33.0 billion, up 20% year over year [18]
- Operating income:$17.4 billion, but this included $2.5 billion related to an FTC legal settlement and $1.8 billion in estimated severance costs; Amazon said operating income would have been $21.7 billion without those charges [19]
- Net income:$21.2 billion, or $1.95 per diluted share [20]
- Free cash flow (TTM):$14.8 billion, down versus the prior year, driven primarily by a $50.9 billion year-over-year increase in property and equipment purchases (capex) [21]
For investors, that last bullet is the mood music: Amazon is spending heavily to build capacity for AI and cloud demand, which can be bullish for long-term competitive position—but messy for short-term free cash flow optics.
Q4 2025 guidance (still the baseline heading into the next earnings report)
Amazon’s Q3 release also included Q4 2025 guidance of:
- Net sales:$206.0 billion to $213.0 billion
- Operating income:$21.0 billion to $26.0 billion [22]
Zacks echoed those same guidance ranges in its December 17 research roundup, underscoring how central they remain to near-term sentiment around AMZN. [23]
AWS leadership’s “2026 thesis”: less hype, more measurable enterprise outcomes
Adding to today’s Amazon stock narrative, AWS CEO Matt Garman used a wide-ranging interview to push a theme investors have been demanding: less “cool demo,” more “provable ROI.”
In a Wired interview published today, Garman discussed:
- A strategic focus on enterprise AI integration (rather than consumer-facing tools)
- The introduction of Nova Forge (positioned as enabling deeper customization by letting companies embed proprietary data earlier in the model-building process)
- His view that AI should not be framed as a blunt replacement for junior developers
- Expectations that 2026 will emphasize measurable business outcomes from AI [24]
For AMZN stock watchers, this matters because it aligns with the big question behind every AI capex cycle: Are customers buying durable, high-margin services—or just renting GPUs for flashy experiments?
What to watch next for Amazon stock: catalysts and risks
Near-term catalysts
- Confirmation (or denial) of the OpenAI investment talks, and whether Trainium adoption is explicitly part of any finalized agreement. [25]
- Updates on AWS growth and capacity buildout, including how quickly new power and compute come online. [26]
- Next earnings date (unconfirmed): several major market calendars estimate Amazon will report around February 5, 2026 (after market), though this is algorithm-based and subject to change until Amazon confirms. [27]
The risks investors keep circling
- Deal uncertainty: Reuters stressed the OpenAI talks are “very fluid,” meaning terms could shift—or talks could dissolve. [28]
- AI ROI skepticism: Reuters also noted investors are watching for signals that AI demand could tail off or that massive spending won’t pay back as hoped. [29]
- Capex vs. cash flow tension: Amazon’s own disclosures show free cash flow pressure driven by sharply higher investment in property and equipment. [30]
- Competition: AWS faces intense competition from Microsoft and Google in cloud and AI services, while the retail business is perpetually in knife-fight mode on price and logistics. [31]
Bottom line for AMZN investors on December 17, 2025
Amazon stock’s move today is a reminder that AI infrastructure is now a first-order driver of AMZN sentiment. The reported OpenAI talks connect three things investors care about most: AWS demand, Trainium chip adoption, and the credibility of Amazon’s long-term monetization path in generative AI. [32]
At the same time, the market’s not handing out free points for “AI vibes.” The next phase—especially into 2026—hinges on whether Amazon can translate giant capex into durable operating leverage, while navigating competition and the always-fun uncertainty of mega-deals that are still “fluid.” [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. s2.q4cdn.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.theverge.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. s2.q4cdn.com, 18. s2.q4cdn.com, 19. s2.q4cdn.com, 20. s2.q4cdn.com, 21. s2.q4cdn.com, 22. s2.q4cdn.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.wired.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. s2.q4cdn.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. s2.q4cdn.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com
