Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is trading slightly higher in Wednesday’s pre-market session, even as broader U.S. equity futures edge lower ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve rate decision later in the day. [1]
Shares closed on Tuesday at $227.92 and are changing hands in early trading around $228, up only a fraction of a percent but still showing relative resilience against modestly red index futures. [2]
Behind that quiet move is a loud news flow: a $35 billion commitment to India, a fresh wave of bullish AWS/AI research calls, big fee cuts for European sellers, and diverging short‑ and long‑term forecasts for Amazon’s stock.
How Amazon stock is trading before the opening bell
- Previous close (Dec. 9, 2025): $227.92
- Pre-market (around 6:15 a.m. ET): ~$228.10, up about 0.1% from Tuesday’s close [3]
- Context: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down roughly 0.1–0.2% as traders wait for the Fed’s latest interest-rate and projections update later today. [4]
Even a small pre-market gain stands out, given that Amazon remains about 12% below its early‑November all‑time high near $258.60, after delivering only a mid‑single‑digit percentage return so far in 2025 — a clear underperformance versus the S&P 500 and several other “Magnificent Seven” peers. [5]
1. $35 billion India AI mega‑bet grabs the headlines
The single biggest corporate headline around Amazon this morning is its plan to invest more than $35 billion in India by 2030, with a heavy emphasis on AI infrastructure and export growth. [6]
Key points from the latest reporting:
- Amazon aims to pour over $35 billion across its Indian businesses by 2030, including data centers, logistics, and export initiatives. [7]
- The company is targeting a jump in cumulative exports from India from about $20 billion to $80 billion by 2030, while supporting up to 1 million additional local jobs over time. [8]
- The move comes alongside a parallel multibillion‑dollar AI investment pledge from Microsoft, leading the Wall Street Journal to frame it as U.S. tech “betting billions on India” in a race for AI and cloud capacity. [9]
For Amazon shareholders, this India commitment does two things:
- Reinforces the AI story – India is a key region for data centers, talent and cloud customers.
- Signals long‑term capital intensity – investors must weigh the potential payoff from AI and export growth against higher capex and the risk of execution missteps.
The announcement doesn’t radically move the share price by itself this morning, but it anchors today’s narrative around Amazon as an infrastructure‑heavy AI and logistics powerhouse, not just an online store.
2. Wall Street doubles down on AWS and AI after re:Invent
Another big driver of sentiment today: a drumbeat of bullish analyst calls following Amazon’s recent AWS re:Inventconference.
Evercore and KeyBanc flag an AWS inflection
- Evercore ISI reiterated an “Outperform” rating and a $335 price target after re:Invent, saying the “AWS unlock” is real and that the unit’s acceleration to roughly 20% growth looks sustainable, not a one‑off blip. [10]
- The firm’s channel checks point to AWS growth of 20% or more in 2026, helped by easing supply constraints, ramping AI chips like Trainium 3, and accelerating cloud demand. [11]
- KeyBanc’s Justin Patterson likewise reaffirmed an “Overweight” rating and $303 price target, projecting +21% year‑over‑year growth into 2026 as AWS leans into flexible AI offerings across models and silicon. [12]
Both notes are landing just as investors re‑price mega‑cap tech around AI, and they reinforce the idea that AWS is re‑accelerating rather than structurally slowing.
Consensus price targets keep marching higher
Recent days have seen a flurry of fresh and updated targets:
- Guggenheim initiated coverage this morning with a “Strong Buy” and $300 target, implying about 32% upsidefrom current levels. [13]
- Rosenblatt kept a $305 target (Strong Buy) on Dec. 4. [14]
- Wedbush reiterated $340 (Buy) on Dec. 3. [15]
- Citizens, BofA, and others have moved targets into the $300+ range in recent days. [16]
Across the Street:
- StockAnalysis data show 72 analysts covering Amazon with a consensus “Strong Buy” rating and an average 12‑month target around $284, roughly 25% above current trading levels. [17]
- TipRanks counts 45 analysts, 44 of them rating Amazon a Buy and one a Hold, with an average target near $296, almost 30% potential upside. [18]
- GuruFocus reports a similar picture, with an average target around $290 and high estimates near $360. [19]
In other words, traditional Wall Street research remains decisively bullish on Amazon, especially as an AI‑leveraged cloud and advertising story.
3. Holiday spending and beauty dominance support the near-term fundamental story
With the peak holiday quarter underway, investors are watching for any sign that consumer demand might wobble. So far, the data is encouraging for Amazon.
- WWD reports that Amazon captured more than 40% of online beauty sales during Cyber Week, putting it far ahead of other retailers in one of the season’s hottest categories. [20]
- Research firm Numerator found that a stunning 87% of Cyber Weekend shoppers bought at least once from Amazon, even as 64% of respondents said rising prices affected their shopping behaviour. [21]
Strong share in beauty and broader online spending bolsters the case that Amazon’s core retail flywheel is still spinning hard, giving it:
- More data to feed AI‑driven recommendations and advertising, and
- More scale benefits across logistics and subscriptions (Prime).
Those dynamics feed directly into some of the bullish 2026 narratives we’re seeing today from equity research and financial media.
4. Big European seller fee cuts: demand tailwind, margin question mark
Not all of Amazon’s latest moves are purely margin‑accretive. Investors are also digesting one of the company’s largest-ever fee reductions for sellers in Europe, designed to blunt competitive pressure from ultra‑low‑cost platforms like Shein and Temu. [22]
According to Amazon’s own update and multiple news outlets:
- Referral fees on clothing and accessories in European marketplaces will fall to 5% from 7–8% on items priced up to €15/£15, and to 10% from 15% for pieces between €15–20/£15–20, starting Dec. 15. [23]
- Fulfilment by Amazon (FBA) parcel fees will drop by an average of about £0.26/€0.32 per parcel across key EU markets, with overall per‑unit fees reduced by about £0.15/€0.17. [24]
Strategically, these cuts:
- Help Amazon keep third‑party merchants loyal in the face of aggressive discount competition.
- Should make low‑priced fashion and other discretionary categories more competitive on Amazon’s platform.
But they also raise questions about near‑term margin pressure in international retail — an issue long flagged in bear‑case scenarios for the stock. [25]
For today’s pre-market session, the fee cuts look more like a slow‑burn structural story than a direct trading catalyst, but they do affect how investors model 2026–2030 profitability in Amazon’s non‑U.S. business.
5. 2026 and 2030: wildly different long-term forecasts
Today’s newsflow is also dominated by fresh long‑term forecasts for Amazon, and they don’t all agree.
The bullish camp: 2026 “monster year” and 2030 upside
- A new Motley Fool piece titled “Prediction: Amazon Stock Will Have a Monster 2026” (Dec. 10) argues that Amazon’s robust third‑quarter performance sets the stage for a powerful 2026, with success hinging on two key high‑margin engines — widely understood to be AWS and advertising. [26]
- Another Motley Fool article, highlighted by Finviz, calls Amazon one of the best AI stocks to own for the next 10 years, noting that AWS sales growth accelerated to 20% year‑over‑year in Q3 and that AI‑related businesses already generate a run‑rate in the hundreds of billions of dollars. [27]
On the formal forecast side:
- 24/7 Wall St. lays out a 2030 bull/base/bear roadmap:
- Bull case: ~$431 per share
- Base case: ~$250
- Bear case: ~$77 [28]
- In its bull scenario, AWS, e‑commerce and advertising collectively drive operating profits high enough to justify a multi‑trillion‑dollar valuation; the base case leans on Street forecasts for revenue and net income through 2030. [29]
Taken together, bullish commentators see meaningful upside from today’s ~$228 share price if Amazon successfully executes on AI, cloud and ad monetisation.
The cautious and bearish algorithms
By contrast, quantitative and technical‑driven models are flashing warning signs:
- CoinCodex’s algorithmic forecast projects Amazon’s price drifting down about 4.3% to $218.09 by early January 2026, with a one‑year projection of $119.37, implying a roughly 48% decline. [30]
- Its long‑term model sees Amazon closer to $151 in 2030, also well below today’s levels. [31]
- CoinCodex labels current sentiment “bearish”, with 58% of tracked indicators flashing sell, and notes that most short‑ and medium‑term simple moving averages (SMAs) for Amazon now sit above the current price. [32]
This creates a striking divergence:
Human analysts broadly see double‑digit upside; at least one algorithmic system sees double‑digit downside.
For investors, the spread between these forecasts underlines just how sensitive Amazon’s valuation is to assumptionsabout AI capex, AWS growth, international margins and long‑run P/E multiples.
6. Technical picture heading into today’s session
From a pure chart and technical‑indicator standpoint, Amazon’s setup remains mixed going into the open:
- CoinCodex notes that Amazon has logged green closes on only 12 of the last 30 trading days, with 4.13% volatility and a Fear & Greed Index reading of 39 (“Fear”). [33]
- The 50‑day SMA sits around $228.53, almost exactly at the current price, while the 200‑day SMA is near $214.87, suggesting the stock is in a longer‑term uptrend but short‑term consolidation. [34]
- Technical service StockInvest currently categorises Amazon as a “sell candidate”, citing a cluster of negative short‑term signals and a recent pivot top, even as it acknowledges a rising short‑term trend and only moderate daily risk. [35]
In practical terms, the chart says:
- Short‑term traders may see Amazon as range‑bound and vulnerable to pullbacks, especially if macro news (like today’s Fed decision) disappoints.
- Long‑term investors are more likely to focus on the fundamental trend — above the 200‑day moving average, with accelerating AWS growth and heavy AI investment.
7. What to watch for Amazon stock today
As the regular session approaches, here are the main things likely to steer AMZN:
- Fed tone and big‑tech risk appetite
If the Fed’s projections hint at fewer or later rate cuts in 2026, high‑multiple tech names like Amazon could see renewed pressure, regardless of company‑specific news. [36] - Follow‑through on India and AI headlines
Investors will parse commentary about how quickly the $35 billion India plan translates into AWS bookings, export growth, and local partnerships — and whether it boosts or drags margins in the next 2–3 years. [37] - Updates or commentary on European fee cuts
Any detail from management or third‑party analysis on how Europe’s fee reductions affect seller behaviour and profitability could tweak models for Amazon’s international segment. [38] - Ongoing AWS/AI sentiment
Additional research notes similar to those from Evercore and KeyBanc, or new data points on AI demand, could further entrench the idea of an AWS inflection going into 2026. [39]
Pre-market takeaway for AMZN on December 10, 2025
- Price action: Amazon stock is slightly up in pre-market trading, outperforming broader index futures but still hugging Tuesday’s close. [40]
- Bullish drivers:
- A $35B India investment narrative that reinforces Amazon’s AI and cloud ambitions. [41]
- Reinforced confidence in AWS, with Evercore, KeyBanc and others projecting around 20%+ cloud growth into 2026 and setting price targets well above $300. [42]
- Strong holiday data, with Amazon dominating Cyber Week online beauty sales and attracting the vast majority of U.S. holiday shoppers. [43]
- Headwinds and risks:
- Margin pressure from deep European fee cuts as Amazon wages a pricing war with Shein and Temu. [44]
- Regulatory and antitrust overhangs plus heavy AI capex that figure prominently in bear‑case 2030 scenarios. [45]
- Bearish algorithmic forecasts (CoinCodex) that see Amazon significantly lower over the next 1–5 years, in sharp contrast to human analyst consensus. [46]
For traders and investors watching Amazon stock pre‑market today, the message is nuanced:
The story is getting bigger and more global — from India to Europe to AI data centers — but so are the stakes. Short‑term technicals look cautious, while long‑term human analysts remain firmly bullish and algorithms flash red.
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering AMZN should weigh these moving pieces against their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs.
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. coincodex.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.wsj.com, 10. www.insidermonkey.com, 11. www.insidermonkey.com, 12. www.insidermonkey.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.gurufocus.com, 20. wwd.com, 21. www.numerator.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.aboutamazon.eu, 25. 247wallst.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. finviz.com, 28. 247wallst.com, 29. 247wallst.com, 30. coincodex.com, 31. coincodex.com, 32. coincodex.com, 33. coincodex.com, 34. coincodex.com, 35. stockinvest.us, 36. www.barrons.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.insidermonkey.com, 40. www.marketwatch.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.insidermonkey.com, 43. wwd.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. 247wallst.com, 46. coincodex.com
