New York, Jan 22, 2026, 20:19 EST
KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating on Advanced Micro Devices, signaling expectations the stock will outperform, and held firm on a $270 price target ahead of the chipmaker’s Feb. 3 earnings. The firm noted hyperscalers—the massive cloud providers—are already securing capacity through 2026, leaving AMD nearly sold out of server CPUs well into that year. This tight demand could drive 10%-15% price hikes. KeyBanc also forecasted 2026 AI GPU revenue between $14 billion and $15 billion. AMD shares rose 1.6% to $253.73 in after-hours trading, notching roughly a 90% gain over the past year. 1
The note arrives amid bets that the AI data-center buildout will continue driving chip demand through 2026, despite the broader semiconductor sector wobbling over growth concerns. For AMD, the immediate issue is whether constrained server supply allows it to hike prices and protect margins—not simply boost shipments.
A MarketMinute analysis noted the stock surged past its $228 to $230 range in mid-January, following a five-day rally of roughly 11%. The report highlighted chart targets around $260 and $277, which would bring the share price close to KeyBanc’s $270 projection. 2
Valuation indicators paint a mixed picture. Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow model, which projects future cash flows, puts the stock’s intrinsic value at $327.26 per share—roughly 24% higher than the recent close of $249.80. Yet, the company’s price-to-earnings ratio hovers near 130, far exceeding those of its peers. 3
KeyBanc’s John Vinh said demand for AMD’s Turin data-center CPUs has nearly sold out the company’s inventory for the year. He described sentiment as “mixed,” citing concerns about AMD’s AI GPUs compared to Nvidia’s. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon pointed out that OpenAI remains the only major Helios customer announced, cautioning that “the entire narrative” for AMD’s AI efforts hinges on securing more buyers. 4
AMD is pushing hard to expand beyond its PC roots, targeting data centers with its EPYC server CPUs and Instinct accelerators—areas traditionally dominated by Intel and Nvidia. Cloud providers are eager for options, which plays into AMD’s hands, but it also means the company must deliver flawlessly.
Tight supply works both ways. A hiccup in product ramps, a drop in GPU shipments, or weaker cloud buyer spending could quickly reveal just how much optimism the stock is pricing in.
Investors will get a clearer picture once AMD reports, shedding light on server pricing, capacity, and its AI chip plans for 2026.
