New York — Friday, December 26, 2025, 12:05 p.m. ET.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) is trading in a typically thinner, post-Christmas U.S. session as investors look to year-end positioning and the “Santa Claus rally” window. On the tape around midday in New York, AMD shares are modestly higher at about $215.68, up roughly 0.3% on the day, after trading between $213.06 and $216.75.
While broad market moves matter for high-beta semiconductor names, today’s AMD narrative is unusually headline-driven: investors are balancing (1) new momentum in AMD’s AI roadmap and mega-deal pipeline, (2) renewed focus on China-compliant accelerators (MI308) and policy-related costs, and (3) Wall Street’s updated targets following AMD’s latest guidance and long-term outlook.
Is the U.S. stock market open right now?
Yes. At 12:05 p.m. ET, U.S. equities are in the core trading session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET).
The market was closed on Christmas Day (Dec. 25) and had an early close on Dec. 24, but Dec. 26 is a normal trading day.
What’s happening in the market today—and why AMD investors care
Wall Street is trading near record territory in a light post-holiday session, with investors still leaning into optimism around future rate cuts and the durability of corporate earnings. That backdrop tends to support mega-cap tech and semiconductors—especially during late-December seasonality that many desks watch closely.
Sector gauges are also slightly positive: the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is around $306.75 and the Invesco QQQ (QQQ) is around $624.20 midday.
For AMD specifically, market tone matters because the stock’s 2025 rally has left investors more sensitive to two things:
- AI demand “proof points” (orders, deployments, and software ecosystem traction)
- policy and supply constraints (especially China-related uncertainty)
The biggest AMD stock drivers right now
1) China AI accelerators are back in focus—along with the “15% fee” risk
A key near-term swing factor for AMD is its China-compliant MI308 AI accelerator—and the political/economic “toll” attached to selling it.
Reuters reported that AMD CEO Lisa Su said the company has licenses to ship some MI308 chips to China and is prepared to pay a 15% fee to the U.S. government if it ships them, following the Trump administration framework for limited chip exports. Reuters also noted legal debate around the fee structure and highlighted that China has issued guidance pushing state-supported data center projects toward homegrown AI chips, a potential demand headwind for U.S. suppliers.
Why investors care:
This is a rare case where AMD’s addressable market expansion is paired with a visible margin “tax” and geopolitical headline risk. For shareholders, the question is whether incremental China sales become a meaningful revenue lever—or a volatile, policy-sensitive stream with unpredictable costs.
2) Alibaba order chatter is emerging as a potential near-term catalyst
Multiple reports in recent days have suggested Alibaba is considering a large purchase of AMD’s MI308 accelerators—commonly cited in the 40,000–50,000 unit range.
Even if investors discount early reporting, the market is reacting because the direction of the story fits a theme: Chinese cloud and AI players still need high-performance accelerators, and AMD’s China-tailored products may be positioned as an alternative to restricted Nvidia offerings.
Important caveat:
This story sits at the intersection of commercial demand and government approvals—meaning the “what,” “when,” and “how profitable” remain fluid.
3) Nvidia-China headlines can move AMD by association
AMD doesn’t trade in a vacuum. A major sector story this week is Nvidia’s plan to resume shipments of certain AI chips to China by mid-February 2026, contingent on approvals—after a U.S. policy shift allowing exports under specified conditions.
That matters to AMD investors because any easing/tightening cycle in AI export policy tends to:
- reprice the whole AI semiconductor group
- shift investor expectations about competitive intensity in China
- amplify attention on AMD’s MI308 economics and licensing pathway
4) The OpenAI partnership remains a defining long-duration bullish pillar
A central pillar of the AMD bull case in late 2025 is the company’s strategic partnership with OpenAI.
Reuters reported that AMD will supply OpenAI with hundreds of thousands of AI chips (GPUs) over several years beginning in 2H 2026, describing this as six gigawatts of deployment scale. Reuters The agreement includes a warrant structure that could allow OpenAI to acquire up to roughly 10% of AMD over time based on milestones, and AMD executives characterized the deal as “transformative.” Reuters
One external expert cited by Reuters, Leah Bennett (Concurrent Asset Management), framed the deal as validating AMD’s technology after years of trailing Nvidia in AI.
What investors should take away today:
OpenAI is not a “next quarter” story. It’s a multi-year capacity, roadmap, and execution story—and it’s one reason AMD tends to trade on long-term AI platform credibility (hardware + software + systems), not just near-term PC cycles.
5) AMD’s Analyst Day targets reset expectations for the rest of the decade
At AMD’s Financial Analyst Day, the company outlined ambitious long-term goals tied to a data center chip market it expects to expand dramatically.
Reuters reported AMD expects its earnings to more than triple by 2030 and laid out a vision that includes $100B in annual data center chip revenue within five years and long-term EPS targets (cited as $20 per share in that Reuters summary).
AMD’s own Investor Relations materials also emphasized rapid ramp dynamics and a multi-generation accelerator roadmap:
- MI350: described as the fastest-ramping product in AMD history and already deployed at scale with major cloud providers including Oracle Cloud Infrastructure
- MI450 / “Helios” systems: expected to arrive beginning Q3 2026
- MI500: planned launch in 2027
Why it matters to the stock today:
AMD is being valued less like a cyclical CPU vendor and more like an AI infrastructure platform—so investors are constantly mapping price moves to whether AMD is on track for that long-term curve.
AMD financial performance: the latest numbers Wall Street is using
AMD’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025) delivered record results:
- Revenue: $9.246B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $1.20
- Data Center segment revenue: $4.3B (up 22% YoY, per AMD’s release)
On the outlook, Reuters reported AMD guided for Q4 revenue of about $9.6B ± $300M, above an LSEG-compiled analyst estimate cited around $9.15B at the time.
Reuters also captured an investor psychology point worth repeating into today’s session: Michael Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital, said short-term profit-taking and concerns about valuations can weigh even after strong prints—especially when parts of the market worry about an “AI bubble.” Reuters
AMD stock forecast: what analysts are saying now
Wall Street’s view on AMD remains broadly constructive, but not uniform—especially after a big year.
Investopedia summarized post-earnings analyst commentary including:
- Jefferies and HSBC: “buy” (or equivalent) ratings and $300 price targets
- Wedbush: raised its target to $290
- Visible Alpha mean target: around $275 (per Investopedia’s calculation and cited dataset)
Separately, a Nasdaq.com piece (from Zacks Equity Research) pegged AMD’s average brokerage recommendation around 1.61 (between Strong Buy and Buy) based on 44 brokerage firms—while also cautioning that brokerage ratings can be overly optimistic and highlighting Zacks’ own rating framework.
How to read these forecasts (without overreacting):
- Price targets tend to move with sentiment and multiples, not just fundamentals.
- For AMD, analysts are increasingly underwriting an “AI infrastructure scale-up” model—meaning targets can shift quickly on evidence of shipments, cloud deployments, and software ecosystem traction.
What investors should watch into the close and the next session
Because the market is open now, the more actionable question is what could change between midday and the next few sessions:
Near-term watchlist for AMD stock
- China policy headlines: Any updates on export license terms, fees, or approvals—especially around AI accelerators—can move AMD quickly.
- Credibility of large-order reports: Confirmation (or credible pushback) on Alibaba/MI308 size and timing could affect near-term sentiment.
- Sector beta into year-end: In thin holiday liquidity, semis can overshoot in either direction, particularly if macro narratives (rate cuts, growth, inflation) swing.
Key upcoming AMD catalysts to know before you trade 2026 headlines
- CES 2026 keynote: AMD confirms Dr. Lisa Su will deliver the keynote on Jan. 5 at 9:30 p.m. ET, spotlighting AMD’s AI vision across cloud, enterprise, edge, and devices.
- Next earnings window: Several market calendars list AMD’s next earnings around Feb. 3, 2026 (after market) (not always formally confirmed by the company this far out).
Bottom line: the AMD stock story is “AI scale + policy risk” right now
At midday on Dec. 26, AMD is trading slightly higher in a constructive tape, with semiconductors supported by late-year seasonality and a market hovering near peaks.
But the real AMD debate heading into 2026 is not whether PCs rebound or whether gaming cycles normalize—it’s whether AMD can convert:
- headline partnerships like OpenAI into durable, high-margin revenue at scale
- a fast-moving accelerator roadmap (MI350 → MI450/Helios → MI500) into consistent deployment wins
- China-compliant product opportunities (MI308) into net-positive growth despite fees, export controls, and local industrial policy
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
