As of 4:43 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was trading around $214.99, down about $0.10 from the prior close, with the day’s range roughly $213.06–$216.75.
That “near-flat” print fits the broader tone of Friday’s U.S. market: a quiet, post-Christmas session with light volume and major indexes finishing slightly lower after a short rally, as investors looked for fresh catalysts into year-end. [1]
Below is what’s driving AMD’s story right now—from AI data center demand and product roadmaps to export-control headlines and Wall Street forecasts—and what investors should keep in mind heading into the next regular session (Monday, Dec. 29).
AMD stock price today: why “flat” can still matter in year-end trading
Friday’s tape had a distinctly seasonal feel. Reuters described the session as light-volume and near-unchanged, with strategists framing the action as the market “catching its breath” after recent gains. [2]
That context matters for AMD because big semiconductor stocks can see outsized moves on relatively modest news flow—especially when liquidity is thinner and positioning is already built for the year-end “Santa Claus rally” window (the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, per the market adage Reuters referenced). [3]
What AMD did Friday: It stayed close to unchanged around $215 shortly after the bell, a level that’s meaningful mostly because the stock has been moving on forward-looking AI expectations rather than near-term PC cycles alone.
The big AMD narrative: AI infrastructure, not just chips
AMD’s stock story in late 2025 is increasingly about whether the company can turn its momentum in data center CPUs (EPYC) and AI accelerators (Instinct) into a durable, multi-year share gain story in a market still dominated by Nvidia.
1) The OpenAI partnership is a headline catalyst (and a key investor debate)
In October, AMD and OpenAI announced a multi-year strategic partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs across multiple generations, beginning with an initial 1 gigawatt deployment of Instinct MI450 GPUs targeted for 2H 2026. [4]
The deal is notable not only for the demand signal, but also for the structure:
- AMD disclosed it issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares, with vesting tied to deployment milestones and share-price/technical-commercial targets. [5]
- OpenAI’s post emphasized the scale and the multi-generation nature of the agreement, quoting CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman on building compute capacity via deep stack collaboration. [6]
For investors, this creates two simultaneous implications:
- Validation: A high-profile AI customer publicly committing to AMD’s roadmap.
- Execution + dilution complexity: Large deployments are hard, and the warrant introduces a future share count consideration tied to success milestones.
2) “Helios” and rack-scale systems move AMD closer to Nvidia’s system-level playbook
AMD’s strategy is shifting from selling chips to selling (or enabling) rack-scale AI infrastructure—where much of the margin and lock-in can live.
- AMD has positioned “Helios” as a rack-scale reference system aligned with open standards and built around the Instinct MI450 series GPUs. [7]
- At its Financial Analyst Day, AMD said Helios systems with MI450 GPUs are expected to begin delivering rack-scale performance starting Q3 2026, followed by the MI500 series with a planned launch in 2027. [8]
Wall Street is watching whether AMD can pair hardware with software and systems integration fast enough to win meaningful AI infrastructure share beyond “secondary supplier” status.
What AMD just reported: record Q3 results and a confident Q4 revenue outlook
AMD’s latest earnings cadence is still central to the stock, because investors want proof that AI demand is showing up in revenue, margins, and guidance (not just product roadmaps).
Q3 2025 highlights (AMD reported Nov. 4)
AMD reported:
- Record revenue of $9.2 billion (up 36% YoY)
- Non-GAAP EPS of $1.20
- Data Center revenue of $4.3 billion (up 22% YoY)
- Client revenue of $2.8 billion (up 46% YoY) driven by Ryzen mix and strength
- A note that Q3 results did not include revenue from MI308 GPU shipments to China [9]
CEO Lisa Su called the quarter a “clear step up” in AMD’s growth trajectory, and CFO Jean Hu emphasized record free cash flow and ongoing AI/HPC investment. [10]
Q4 2025 guidance: revenue above Street estimates (per Reuters)
AMD guided Q4 revenue to about $9.6 billion ± $300 million, while Reuters cited an LSEG analyst average estimate around $9.15 billion at the time. [11]
Reuters also reported:
- Q3 adjusted per-share profit of $1.20, beating an estimate of $1.16
- Commentary that the AI buildout is driving demand, but AI “bubble” concerns and chip valuation questions remain a live investor debate [12]
China/export controls: a real swing factor for AMD’s AI accelerator revenue
One of the more market-moving uncertainties around AMD late in 2025 is the company’s ability to sell certain AI accelerators into China amid U.S. restrictions.
Reuters reported in early December that CEO Lisa Su said AMD has licenses to ship some MI308 chips to China and is prepared to pay a 15% fee to the U.S. government if it ships them—comments she made at an event hosted by Wired. [13]
The same Reuters report highlighted key geopolitical tension points for investors:
- A U.S. policy backdrop involving chip exports and fees/taxes
- China’s push to steer state-funded data center projects toward domestic AI chips, which can pressure long-term opportunity for U.S. suppliers [14]
Meanwhile, AMD’s own Q3 release and Q4 outlook explicitly stated the company’s outlook did not include revenue from MI308 shipments to China at that time. [15]
Investor takeaway: Any incremental clarity—positive or negative—on licensing, shipment timing, or China demand elasticity can move AMD because the market is trying to price not only how big AMD’s AI business can get, but also how reliable it is across jurisdictions.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: optimism, but with a wide range
Analyst expectations for AMD remain broadly constructive, but targets vary by dataset, timing, and assumptions about AMD’s ability to convert roadmaps into durable AI share.
Long-term targets AMD itself is putting on the table
At its Nov. 11 Financial Analyst Day, AMD outlined ambitious 3–5 year targets, including:
- >35% revenue CAGR (company level)
- Non-GAAP EPS exceeding $20
- >60% revenue CAGR in Data Center business
- A stated aim to reach >50% server CPU revenue share and >80% revenue CAGR in data center AI [16]
Reuters separately reported AMD expects $100 billion annual data center chip revenue within five years and described AMD’s view that the data center chip market could reach $1 trillion by 2030, with AI driving much of the growth. [17]
What analysts are saying right now
- Reuters quoted Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon calling AMD’s targets “somewhat aggressive/aspirational,” hinging on whether Helios can help AMD shift from a marginal AI player to one with much larger share. [18]
- A recent MarketBeat compilation put AMD’s average 12‑month price target around $277.06, with a range cited from $140 to $380. [19]
- Nasdaq’s Zacks-authored piece (published Dec. 26) described an average brokerage recommendation around 1.61 (between Strong Buy and Buy) based on 44 brokerage firms, while also warning readers about historical optimism bias in sell-side ratings. [20]
- An Investing.com recap of a Piper Sandler note said the firm maintained an Overweight stance and framed Helios (mid‑2026) as a key driver in the next leg of the story. [21]
Investor takeaway: The Street is effectively split into two camps:
- “AMD is a credible #2 (or better) AI platform with system-level ambition,” and
- “AMD still has to prove it can win enough ecosystem/software and supply-chain scale to materially dent Nvidia’s dominance.”
What to watch next: catalysts that can move AMD stock
Here are the most market-relevant signposts investors are tracking into early 2026.
1) The next earnings report window (Q4 2025)
AMD’s next earnings date is widely projected for Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026 (after market) based on historical patterns, though the exact timing can change until confirmed. [22]
Given how AI-driven valuations behave, investors often focus less on the backward-looking quarter and more on:
- data center/AI revenue trajectory,
- gross margin trend (especially with system ramp costs),
- and any update on China-related shipments and licensing.
2) CES 2026: Lisa Su keynote on Jan. 5
AMD’s site confirms CEO Dr. Lisa Su is scheduled to deliver the CES 2026 opening keynote on Jan. 5, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET, with expected updates on AI solutions from cloud to edge and devices. [23]
CES is historically more “product + narrative” than “numbers,” but for AMD it can still affect sentiment—especially around client AI PCs, GPUs, and platform partnerships.
3) Macro backdrop: “Santa Claus rally” psychology and AI valuation sensitivity
Reuters noted the market is still within the Santa Claus rally window and quoted strategists saying there may be upward bias into early January—while also cautioning that volatility and headlines remain the “toll” for strong returns. [24]
For AMD, the macro sensitivity tends to show up through:
- rates and discount-rate expectations (growth multiple compression/expansion),
- overall AI capex appetite, and
- “AI bubble” narratives that can quickly rotate investor flows within semiconductors. [25]
The exchange is closed now: what investors should know before the next regular session
At 4:43 p.m. ET, the U.S. regular session has ended. Nasdaq defines the Regular Market Session as 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with a Post-Market Session running afterward. [26]
Extended-hours reality check (especially for AMD)
- After-hours trading can run to 8:00 p.m. ET, but liquidity is typically thinner and price moves can be more volatile. [27]
- AMD, like many liquid mega-cap tech stocks, often trades actively after the bell—particularly on headline news (export controls, major AI partnerships, analyst notes).
What to do before Monday’s open (Dec. 29)
If you’re positioning ahead of the next session, consider these practical points:
- Watch for weekend headline risk
For AMD, that often means anything related to U.S.–China chip policy, licensing, tariffs/fees, or major hyperscaler AI capex signals. [28] - Don’t over-interpret thin, late-December moves
Friday’s broader market was described as light-volume with few catalysts—conditions where even strong stocks can drift without clear information content. [29] - Know your venue and order type
If you trade extended hours, use limit orders and expect wider spreads. General extended-hours dynamics—fewer participants, more volatility—are well documented. [30] - Have the next “fundamental checkpoints” on your calendar
AMD’s CES keynote (Jan. 5) and the projected earnings window (Feb. 3) are the next widely watched moments when AMD may refresh its narrative and numbers. [31]
Bottom line: AMD’s stock thesis is increasingly a “rack-scale AI execution” bet
At today’s levels near $215, AMD stock is being priced less like a mature PC chip company and more like a company trying to become a full-stack AI infrastructure supplier—chips, systems, and software—competing for a market AMD itself frames as heading toward trillion-dollar scale later this decade. [32]
The near-term setup is straightforward:
- Bull case: AI accelerators + EPYC share gains + rack-scale systems (Helios/MI450) + marquee customers like OpenAI drive a multi-year growth step-change. [33]
- Bear case: Export constraints, ecosystem lock-in challenges, and AI valuation sensitivity keep AMD in a “credible #2” lane without enough share/margin expansion to justify the most aggressive targets. [34]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. openai.com, 5. ir.amd.com, 6. openai.com, 7. www.amd.com, 8. www.amd.com, 9. ir.amd.com, 10. ir.amd.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. ir.amd.com, 16. www.amd.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.amd.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. listingcenter.nasdaq.com, 27. listingcenter.nasdaq.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. www.amd.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. ir.amd.com, 34. www.reuters.com
