Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) stock is ending 2025 with a familiar “two-clock” story: a near-term tug-of-war around China AI-chip approvals, and a longer-term bet that AMD’s 2026 rack-scale roadmap (and big-name customers) can translate into durable market share in AI infrastructure.
As of Friday, Dec. 26, AMD shares were trading around $215.04 in U.S. trading, essentially flat on the day in a market session shaped by thin post-holiday liquidity.
Below is a full roundup of the notable Dec. 26, 2025 news flow, plus the latest consensus forecasts and price targets, and the key catalysts investors are watching next.
What’s happening with AMD stock on Dec. 26, 2025
With U.S. markets in the low-volume stretch between Christmas and New Year’s, the broader tape matters more than usual. Reuters flagged that index futures were subdued in thin post-Christmas trading, a setup that can exaggerate single-stock moves—especially in high-beta megacap tech. [1]
In the bigger picture, Reuters’ “Week Ahead” framing for late December is straightforward: investors are watching for an upbeat year-end finish after a strong 2025, with major index levels in focus. [2]
For AMD specifically, Dec. 26 didn’t bring a new company press release or earnings update. Instead, the day’s AMD narrative has been driven by a cluster of China-related AI chip headlines, analyst target recaps, and institutional-positioning stories—the kind of “market paperwork” content that tends to rise to the top when corporate news is quiet.
Today’s AMD news roundup: China MI308 headlines, institutional filings, and market chatter
Here are the main AMD-stock items published on Dec. 26, 2025 that are circulating across finance and tech outlets:
1) DigiTimes: AMD “wins” an Alibaba MI308 order (paywalled headline)
A DigiTimes item dated Friday, Dec. 26 reports that AMD won a major Alibaba MI308 chip order positioned as a competitive response to Nvidia’s China-focused H200 timeline. The full article is subscriber-only, but the headline itself is driving attention because it implies the conversation has moved from “possible” orders to something more concrete. [3]
2) MarketBeat: new 13F-style reads on AMD buying activity
MarketBeat published multiple same-day posts summarizing institutional activity filings. Two examples on Dec. 26 describe smaller advisory firms adding AMD shares during Q3, while also repeating a broader snapshot: institutional ownership remains high and mega-managers (e.g., Vanguard/State Street/Geode) are large holders. [4]
These pieces are not “new fundamentals,” but they do reinforce a key reality about AMD stock: it’s heavily institutionally owned, and flows can matter when liquidity is thin.
3) TS2.tech and AInvest: premarket-style explainers
Two opinion/aggregator-style write-ups published today lean into the same thesis: AMD’s near-term swing factor is the China-compliant MI308 story, while the longer-term valuation debate ties back to the OpenAI deal timeline and AMD’s Helios rack roadmap. TechStock²+1
4) QuiverQuant: “China market buzz” framing
QuiverQuant’s Dec. 26 post summarizes social/media chatter around AMD’s potential upside in China if large MI308 orders materialize. This is sentiment-focused rather than a primary source—but it reflects what’s being discussed by traders today. [5]
The big swing factor: China, MI308, and the “permission slip” economy
MI308 is designed for China—but revenue has been explicitly excluded
AMD’s own reporting makes the near-term tension unusually clear. In its Q3 2025 financial results, AMD stated that its third-quarter results did not include revenue from MI308 GPU shipments to China, and it also said its Q4 2025 outlook does not include MI308 shipments to China. [6]
That disclosure matters because it tells investors:
- The company is treating China MI308 revenue as uncertain enough to exclude from guidance; and
- Any restart (or acceleration) in MI308 shipments would likely be read as incremental upside relative to what’s modeled in that outlook.
The 15% “proceeds” term became part of the narrative
One of the strangest (and most consequential) wrinkles in this story is that China-compliant AI chips have been discussed alongside a 15% proceeds/tax-type arrangement connected to export licensing.
Reuters reported earlier this month that AMD’s chief said the company was ready to pay a 15% tax on AI chip shipments to China, and described MI308 as a downgraded product designed to comply with U.S. export controls. [7]
Separately, a Congressional Research Service report states that in August 2025, BIS approved Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 for sale to China under terms in which the U.S. government would receive 15% of proceeds, while also noting policy concerns and questions about authority. [8]
Alibaba order reports keep stacking up
Over the past week, multiple outlets have pointed to Alibaba as a potential anchor customer for MI308:
- Investors.com reported that Alibaba planned to purchase 40,000 to 50,000 MI308 accelerators, framing it alongside China export developments for Nvidia. [9]
- Yahoo Finance summarized an MLex report saying Alibaba was considering a purchase in that same 40,000–50,000 range. [10]
- Barron’s also referenced Alibaba planning to purchase 50,000 MI308 chips as AMD’s China-compliant accelerator nears rollout. [11]
- And today’s DigiTimes headline goes a step further by implying AMD won that order. [12]
Important nuance: none of these public snippets, on their own, confirm final quantities, pricing, margins, delivery timing, or regulatory conditions. But collectively, they explain why China MI308 is the dominant near-term catalyst for AMD stock into year-end.
The long-duration bull case: OpenAI, Oracle, and AMD’s rack-scale push in 2026
While China headlines can move AMD day-to-day, AMD’s strategic pitch to investors in late 2025 has centered on something bigger: becoming a credible rack-scale alternative in AI infrastructure rather than a chip-by-chip challenger.
The OpenAI supply deal sets a 2026 “start line”
Reuters reported that AMD signed a multi-year AI chip supply agreement with OpenAI, including an option structure that could allow OpenAI to acquire up to a 10% stake via warrants, and that the deal involves supplying hundreds of thousands of GPUs starting in the second half of 2026. [13]
AMD echoed key elements of this in its Q3 results press release, describing OpenAI as a strategic partner and pointing to a planned first deployment of MI450 GPUs beginning in the second half of 2026. [14]
Oracle and the “Helios” rack are part of the same thesis
In the same Q3 release, AMD also highlighted a planned Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offering built around AMD’s “Helios” rack design, including an initial deployment of 50,000 GPUs starting in Q3 2026. [15]
AMD’s own targets: aggressive, explicit, and very AI-coded
At its Financial Analyst Day, AMD laid out long-term targets that set the valuation debate:
- Company-level target of greater than 35% revenue CAGR and non-GAAP EPS exceeding $20 over the next 3–5 years
- Data center growth target of greater than 60% revenue CAGR
- “Helios” systems with MI450 expected to begin in Q3 2026 (per AMD’s release) [16]
Reuters, covering AMD’s analyst-day messaging, described the company talking about a $100 billion annual data-center revenue target and pointing to next-generation chips and the Helios rack system due in 2026 as part of the plan to challenge Nvidia in AI. [17]
Fundamentals snapshot: AMD’s last reported quarter and near-term guidance
To ground all the narrative heat in actual numbers, AMD’s most recent official financial update (as of Dec. 26) is its Q3 2025 report:
- Revenue: record $9.2 billion, up 36% year-over-year
- Non-GAAP EPS:$1.20
- Data Center revenue:$4.3 billion, up 22% year-over-year
- Client and Gaming revenue:$4.0 billion, up 73% year-over-year
- Q4 2025 guidance: revenue around $9.6 billion ± $300 million, with non-GAAP gross margin expected around 54.5%
- And again: Q3 and the Q4 outlook exclude MI308 shipments to China [18]
This is why the market is treating China as a meaningful “option value” in AMD’s story: the company has explicitly kept it out of the baseline forecast.
AMD stock forecast: what analysts are projecting now
“Forecast” is not one thing; it’s a collage of models, assumptions, and risk tolerances. Still, the consensus picture can be summarized.
Consensus rating and price target ranges
Two widely-followed aggregator snapshots show a broadly bullish Street, but with meaningful dispersion:
- MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” (based on 42 analyst ratings) and an average 12‑month price target of $277.06 (range: $140 to $380). [19]
- StockAnalysis lists a consensus “Buy” rating and an average price target of $239.97 (range: $120 to $345). [20]
With AMD around $215 today, those imply roughly:
- ~28.8% upside to ~$277
- ~11.6% upside to ~$240 [21]
A fresh example of “target math” in the wild
Investors.com highlighted a Truist note that kept AMD in the conversation as an AI infrastructure name while trimming AMD’s target slightly (from $279 to $277). [22]
This kind of small cut is easy to ignore—but in practice, it signals something important: analysts are actively recalibrating targets even as they maintain bullish long-term stances, often reflecting short-term uncertainty (China, supply timing, competition) layered on top of strong secular demand.
Technical context: AMD’s late-December volatility band
AMD’s recent price history shows a stock that can move fast when headlines hit.
Investing.com’s historical table shows AMD trading from the high-$190s earlier in the month to the low-$210s by Dec. 19, and hovering around $215 into Dec. 24 (the last full regular session before today’s post-holiday Friday). [23]
That range matters because it frames how traders will interpret China/MI308 updates: in a low-liquidity tape, AMD can gap and run—up or down—faster than fundamentals change.
Product and platform backdrop: Zen 6 details add to the 2026 narrative
Not all AMD stock drivers are GPUs. AMD’s CPU roadmap remains a key pillar for data centers, and there’s been fresh technical evidence of what’s coming next.
Tom’s Hardware reported that AMD released a developer-focused document that reveals architectural details of Zen 6 (including EPYC “Venice”), describing it as a more substantial redesign and highlighting throughput-oriented design choices. [24]
Separately, Tom’s Hardware also pointed to signs of AMD EXPO 1.2 moving toward fuller support for next-gen memory modules (CUDIMMs), tying the platform story to a market environment where AI/data center demand is pressuring the memory ecosystem. [25]
For stock investors, the takeaway is not “buy because dispatch width,” but rather: AMD is trying to line up CPU + GPU + networking + software into a coherent stack by 2026—because that’s what hyperscalers buy.
What investors will watch next
1) Any confirmation (or denial) around Alibaba + MI308
Today’s DigiTimes headline adds fuel; the market will look for harder confirmation via:
- additional reporting from major wires,
- supply-chain commentary,
- or AMD/customer disclosures (which can lag).
2) Export policy stability (the rulebook can change mid-game)
The CRS discussion of licensing terms and policy debate is a reminder that AI chip exports are not a normal commercial market—they’re a policy market. [26]
3) The next earnings date window
Several calendars estimate AMD’s next earnings report around Feb. 3, 2026, but note that dates may be unconfirmed until the company announces. [27]
4) 2026 delivery credibility: MI450 + Helios + customer deployments
AMD has placed a lot of narrative weight on second-half 2026 deployments (OpenAI) and Q3 2026 ramp points (Oracle/Helios). [28]
As those dates get closer, the stock will increasingly trade on:
- supply assurance,
- software maturity (ROCm adoption),
- and whether customers talk about AMD as “planned capacity” vs. “installed capacity.”
Bottom line for Dec. 26: AMD stock is trading on two timelines
On Dec. 26, 2025, AMD stock’s center of gravity is split:
- Short-term: MI308 and China—where order-size rumors, licensing terms, and geopolitical friction can move the stock quickly. [29]
- Long-term: the 2026 rack-scale roadmap (MI450/Helios) and flagship partnerships (OpenAI/Oracle), where execution and delivery will determine whether AMD’s “credible #2 in AI infrastructure” thesis becomes cash flow rather than just a slide deck. [30]
As always with semiconductor stocks: the future arrives unevenly—first as rumor, then as capex, then as shipments, and only later as margins.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.digitimes.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.quiverquant.com, 6. ir.amd.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.congress.gov, 9. www.investors.com, 10. finance.yahoo.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.digitimes.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. ir.amd.com, 15. ir.amd.com, 16. ir.amd.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. ir.amd.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.investors.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.tomshardware.com, 25. www.tomshardware.com, 26. www.congress.gov, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
