NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:52 a.m. ET — Market closed
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) stock enters the final stretch of 2025 with U.S. markets shut for the weekend and investors shifting their focus from intraday tape-watching to catalyst-spotting. AMD last traded around $214.99, essentially flat, after the post-holiday week wrapped up—keeping the chipmaker near the middle of a volatile end-of-year range where profit-taking and “buy-the-dip” interest have repeatedly traded places.
The broader backdrop is still constructive, but not calm. In its latest week-ahead outlook, Reuters noted that major U.S. indexes were pushing record territory and eyeing psychologically important milestones, while “light trading volumes can exaggerate” moves—an important caveat for mega-cap technology and semiconductor names like AMD. Strategists quoted by Reuters said market momentum remains bullish, but investors are also debating leadership rotation away from the tech complex after a choppy November. [1]
With the next regular session set to begin Monday morning, the key question for AMD shareholders isn’t simply where the stock opens—it’s which narrative dominates first: (1) a potential reopening of China-related AI accelerator revenue, (2) intensifying competition in AI inference, or (3) macro-driven volatility tied to the Federal Reserve and year-end positioning.
Where AMD stock stands going into Monday
AMD stock is coming off a holiday-shortened stretch that Reuters described as supportive for risk assets overall—yet prone to sharper swings because year-end liquidity can be thin. [2]
From here, investors are weighing two competing forces:
- Momentum and positioning: Reuters’ week-ahead piece highlighted that the S&P 500 was tracking a strong year and that “momentum” has favored bulls, while also flagging potential volatility around portfolio adjustments at year-end. [3]
- Semis and AI expectations: AMD remains tightly linked to investor expectations for AI infrastructure spending and the pace at which the AI boom transitions from training to inference—the segment where pricing pressure and competition tend to rise.
The last 24–48 hours: the AMD headlines investors are reacting to
Despite the weekend timing (when corporate news flow often slows), AMD still saw several meaningful investor-facing updates and analyses over the past two days:
1) A fresh rating change to “hold”
MarketBeat reported that Wall Street Zen shifted its view on AMD from “buy” to “hold” in an update published Saturday. The same MarketBeat coverage also summarized a still-positive broader Street stance on AMD, compiling multiple analyst ratings and price targets. [4]
2) A cautious-but-less-bearish tone from Seeking Alpha
A Seeking Alpha commentary published Sunday said the author is upgrading to “Hold”, citing stronger-than-expected AI infrastructure tailwinds and data-center demand—while also warning that operating leverage and valuation remain points of friction. [5]
3) A bullish “2026 upside” call tied to China
A widely circulated weekend piece argued AMD could have significant upside in 2026, explicitly tying the thesis to the possibility of regaining access to parts of the China market for advanced chips and to projected earnings acceleration. [6]
Taken together, the last 24–48 hours didn’t deliver a single, definitive “new catalyst”—but they did show a market that is actively re-litigating AMD’s valuation versus its AI opportunity, right before the final trading days of the year.
The big fundamental swing factor: China access and the MI308 storyline
For AMD investors, China is not a sideshow—it’s a lever.
Reuters has reported that China represented about 24% of AMD revenue in a recent fiscal year, underscoring why any reopening of AI-chip shipments can matter disproportionately to sentiment and forward estimates. [7]
But the opportunity is paired with real policy and execution risk:
- In AMD’s own SEC filing, the company disclosed that April 2025 U.S. export restrictions led to about an $800 million inventory and related charge tied to AMD Instinct MI308 products. The filing also said AMD applied for and received some licenses to ship MI308 to certain China-based customers—and noted it did not record MI308 China-based customer revenue in the quarter ended Sept. 27, 2025. [8]
- Reuters also reported earlier that AMD CEO Lisa Su said the company was prepared to pay a 15% fee/tax to the U.S. government tied to licensed shipments of MI308 to China, under arrangements connected to export approvals. [9]
This is why China-related headlines can move AMD quickly: the debate is less about whether demand exists, and more about how much of that demand can legally be served, under what licensing conditions, and with what timing.
Competition is shifting toward inference—and AMD is in the middle of it
Another narrative that resurfaced this week is how AI competition changes as workloads shift from training to inference. A Reuters report on Nvidia’s licensing deal with Groq highlighted that while Nvidia dominates training, inference is a more contested battleground, where “traditional rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices” are trying to take share alongside well-funded startups. The same Reuters piece quoted Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who flagged antitrust and competitive considerations around these “license plus talent” structures. [10]
For AMD, this matters because inference is where customers scrutinize total cost of ownership, software maturity, and deployment friction—areas where AMD has been investing heavily to narrow the gap with Nvidia’s ecosystem.
AMD’s roadmap and partnerships: the “proof points” bulls point to
AMD has used recent corporate communications to emphasize rack-scale and full-stack ambitions—positioning itself as more than a standalone chip supplier.
- In a December 2 press release, AMD said HPE will be among the first OEMs to adopt AMD’s “Helios” rack-scale AI architecture, and AMD included quotes from CEO Lisa Su and HPE CEO Antonio Neri describing the goal of an open, scalable rack-level platform. [11]
- In an October 6 announcement, OpenAI and AMD disclosed a multi-year partnership for OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs, with an initial 1 gigawatt deployment of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs targeted to begin in the second half of 2026. [12]
- AMD has also highlighted at its Financial Analyst Day that it previewed “Helios” and discussed its accelerator cadence and software momentum (ROCm), all aimed at expanding AMD’s relevance in hyperscale AI deployments. [13]
These are longer-dated drivers—but they provide context for why many investors remain willing to pay a premium multiple for AMD even after a strong run.
Wall Street’s outlook: price targets, consensus, and the valuation tug-of-war
According to MarketBeat’s compiled analyst snapshot, AMD carries an average rating of “Moderate Buy” with an average price target around $277.06 (with a wide spread between low and high targets). Relative to the latest ~$215 trading level, that implies roughly ~29% upside if the consensus target is realized—but it also reflects meaningful disagreement on how durable AMD’s AI-driven growth will be. [14]
The near-term tension is straightforward:
- Bull case: AI accelerator momentum + rack-scale platforms + possible reopening of China shipments = faster revenue/earnings trajectory. [15]
- Bear/valuation case: Even with improving revenue, operating leverage and earnings conversion may lag expectations, leaving the stock vulnerable if growth decelerates or if AI spending narratives wobble. [16]
What investors should know before the next session
Because the market is closed now, the most practical edge going into Monday is being prepared for headline-driven gaps and thin-liquidity moves typical of year-end trade.
Here are the key items investors will likely watch before and into Monday’s open:
- Macro calendar and Fed messaging
Investors are looking ahead to key scheduled releases this week and the Fed’s next batch of signals. Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar flagged items including pending home sales (Monday) and FOMC minutes (Tuesday), among other events. Reuters likewise emphasized the importance of the Fed minutes and the rate outlook debate. [17] - Year-end liquidity and positioning
Reuters highlighted that year-end adjustments can stir volatility—especially when volumes are light. That matters for AMD because it sits in the intersection of mega-cap tech, semis, and AI—areas that have been central to 2025’s equity leadership. [18] - China/export-control headlines (and any licensing clarity)
Given AMD’s disclosed MI308 hit and the significance of China revenue exposure cited by Reuters, any incremental update—positive or negative—can move the stock quickly. [19] - Extended-hours dynamics
If investors choose to react outside regular hours, Nasdaq notes that pre-market activity generally runs 4:00–9:30 a.m. ET and after-hours 4:00–8:00 p.m. ET, where liquidity can be thinner and price moves sharper. [20]
Bottom line
AMD stock heads into the final full week of 2025 with shares parked near $215 and the market’s attention split between year-end risk appetite and the next set of AI-specific catalysts. The most consequential swing factor remains China access for advanced AI chips, while the competitive arena for AI inference continues to intensify—creating a setup where headlines and macro tone can matter as much as fundamentals in the very near term. [21]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. seekingalpha.com, 6. www.fool.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.amd.com, 12. openai.com, 13. www.amd.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.amd.com, 16. seekingalpha.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.sec.gov
