AMD Stock Today (December 4, 2025): AI Mega‑Deals, China Tax Twist and Bold 2030 Price Targets

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is once again at the center of the AI chip story. On December 4, 2025, the stock is trading around $215–$216 per share, giving AMD a market capitalization of roughly $350+ billion and leaving it well below its recent highs near $260–$270 but still up dramatically for the year. ^[1]

Fresh headlines today span everything from new China export arrangements and record AI hardware demand to 2030 price predictions that imagine AMD as a potential trillion‑dollar giant. Here’s a structured look at the key news, forecasts, and analyses circulating on December 4, 2025.

1. AMD stock price and 2025 performance

As of late trading on December 4, 2025, AMD shares change hands at about $215.8. The stock has traded between roughly $76 and $267 over the past 52 weeks, implying it’s now sitting midway between its recent peak and the lower end of the range. AMD’s valuation remains rich, with a trailing P/E above 100 and a forward multiple in the 50–60x range depending on the estimate. ^[2]

Despite the recent pullback, AMD has been one of 2025’s standout semiconductor names:

Several reports note that AMD shares have roughly doubled in 2025, with some pieces citing gains in the 80–120% range versus the start of the year. ^[3]
A Motley Fool–syndicated analysis comparing AMD to Nvidia estimates AMD is up about 82% in 2025, while Nvidia has gained roughly 34%, even though Nvidia still dwarfs AMD’s three‑year performance. ^[4]
Since the Q3 2025 earnings report on November 4, however, AMD shares have fallen about 15%, underperforming the S&P 500 over the same period. ^[5]

In short: AMD is coming off a huge year, but the market is digesting big expectations and a very high valuation.

2. Fresh headline: AMD’s new 15% China tax arrangement on MI308 AI chips

The most eye‑catching news today comes from Reuters, which reports that AMD CEO Lisa Su told a Wired conference in San Francisco that the company has licenses to ship some of its MI308 AI accelerators to China and is prepared to pay a 15% tax to the U.S. government on those exports. ^[6]

Key points from that report:

The 15% fee stems from an August agreement between the Trump administration and both AMD and Nvidia, allowing limited chip shipments to China to resume if the companies pay the tax. ^[7]
Some legal experts argue that such a levy may conflict with the U.S. Constitution’s ban on export taxes, raising the risk that the arrangement could be challenged in court or revisited by lawmakers. ^[8]

This matters because export controls previously hit AMD’s results:

In Q2 2025, AMD took roughly $800 million in inventory‑related charges linked to U.S. restrictions on its MI308 data center GPUs for China. ^[9]
AMD’s Q3 results and Q4 guidance explicitly assume no revenue from MI308 shipments to China, underlining how conservative its official outlook remains on this front. ^[10]

If the 15% tax deal sticks, China could become a partial upside lever for AMD’s AI business – but political and legal risk around these exports remains high.

3. Q3 2025 earnings: record results and upbeat guidance

AMD’s current narrative is anchored in its blockbuster Q3 2025 earnings and the AI roadmap laid out at its recent Analyst Day.

3.1 Headline numbers

From AMD’s official Q3 2025 results: ^[11]

Revenue: $9.246 billion, up 36% year over year and 20% quarter over quarter – a company record.
GAAP EPS: $0.75, up about 60% YoY.
Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.20, up 30% YoY and 150% sequentially, beating Wall Street estimates by a few percentage points.
GAAP gross margin: 52%; non‑GAAP gross margin: 54%.

Segment performance was equally striking:

Data Center revenue came in around $4.3 billion, up 22% YoY and accounting for roughly 47% of AMD’s total sales, driven by 5th‑gen EPYC server CPUs and Instinct MI350 AI GPUs. ^[12]
Client + Gaming combined for about $4.0 billion, up over 70% YoY. Client revenue hit a record $2.8 billion (up 46% YoY) on strong Ryzen demand and AI‑PC momentum, while Gaming revenue surged roughly 181% YoY to about $1.3 billion on Radeon GPUs and console chips. ^[13]
Embedded revenue was approximately $857 million, down slightly year over year but still contributing just under 10% of sales. ^[14]

Cash‑flow metrics strengthened as well: free cash flow hit roughly $1.5 billion with a 17% FCF margin, and AMD ended the quarter with more than $7.2 billion in cash and short‑term investments versus about $3.2 billion in debt. ^[15]

3.2 Q4 2025 guidance

For Q4 2025, AMD guided to: ^[16]

Revenue around $9.6 billion, plus or minus $300 million (about 25% YoY and 4% QoQ growth at the midpoint).
Non‑GAAP gross margin near 54.5%, roughly flat to slightly above Q3.

Notably, AMD stated that this guidance excludes MI308 China revenue, leaving room for upside if export conditions evolve favorably. ^[17]

4. AI mega‑deals: OpenAI, Oracle and more

A big part of the AMD bull case in late 2025 comes from a series of large AI infrastructure wins.

4.1 OpenAI: 6 GW of AMD GPUs

During Q3, OpenAI chose AMD as a core “preferred partner” for its next‑generation AI infrastructure: ^[18]

OpenAI plans to deploy 6 gigawatts of AI compute using AMD GPUs, starting with 1 GW of Instinct MI450 accelerators in the second half of 2026.

Several analyses argue that this deal alone could translate into tens of billions of dollars in revenue over time if fully executed, though exact numbers vary by model and remain highly dependent on ASPs, timelines and utilization. ^[19]

4.2 Oracle and Helios rack‑scale systems

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) will deploy what it calls the first publicly available AI supercluster built around AMD’s new “Helios” rack design, featuring: ^[20]

Instinct MI450 GPUs,
EPYC “Venice” CPUs, and
Pensando “Vulcano” networking.

An initial rollout of about 50,000 GPUs is slated to start in Q3 2026, giving AMD a flagship reference customer at rack scale. ^[21]

4.3 Broader AI ecosystem momentum

Recent quarters also saw:

AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Alibaba and others launching or expanding EPYC‑powered instances. ^[22]
Vultr, DigitalOcean and other cloud providers rolling out AMD Instinct MI325X/MI355X GPUs globally. ^[23]
Partnerships with IBM, Cisco, G42, Oracle, Cohere and Zyphra around large‑scale AI clusters and multimodal models on Instinct GPUs. ^[24]

Collectively, these deals make a strong case that AMD is no longer just a CPU challenger, but a central player in emerging AI compute infrastructure.

5. AMD’s AI hardware roadmap: MI350 now, MI400 coming

AMD is pairing these mega‑deals with an aggressive GPU roadmap.

5.1 Instinct MI350 and MI355X (shipping now)

At its June “Advancing AI 2025” event and in follow‑up blog posts, AMD detailed the Instinct MI350 series, including the MI350X and MI355X accelerators: ^[25]

Up to 4x more AI compute versus the prior generation and up to a ~35x boost in inference performance.
Up to 288 GB of HBM3E per GPU and around 8 TB/s of memory bandwidth, enabling very large language models to run on fewer accelerators.
Dense configurations of 64–128 GPUs per rack (air vs. liquid cooled), supporting exaFLOP‑class mixed‑precision performance.

AMD also claims MI355X can offer notable tokens‑per‑dollar advantages in some LLM inference benchmarks compared with competing solutions – a key selling point for cost‑sensitive cloud platforms. TechStock²+1

5.2 Instinct MI400 & Helios rack (2026+)

From AMD’s Analyst Day and technical roadmaps: ^[26]

The Instinct MI400 series is slated for 2026, with expectations of HBM4 memory, higher bandwidth (on the order of ~20 TB/s) and substantial performance gains over MI350.
The Helios rack‑scale design aims to integrate MI400 GPUs with EPYC CPUs and advanced networking in turnkey AI racks, targeting order‑of‑magnitude performance improvements on certain Mixture‑of‑Experts workloads relative to current MI355X systems.

This roadmap underpins AMD’s extremely ambitious financial targets: management is guiding for >35% compound annual revenue growth over the next 3–5 years, ~60% CAGR in data center, ~80% CAGR in AI, non‑GAAP EPS above $20, and operating margins above 35% over time. ^[27]

6. What Wall Street is saying on December 4, 2025

Today’s research flow around AMD is unusually dense. Here’s how the latest notes line up.

6.1 Zacks: strong fundamentals, but a “Hold” after a 15% slide

A new Zacks report titled “Why Is Advanced Micro (AMD) Down 15.1% Since Last Earnings Report?” highlights that AMD’s Q3 beat on revenue and earnings hasn’t stopped the stock from dropping about 15% in the past month. ^[28]

Zacks emphasizes:

Robust segment growth, particularly data center (up 22% YoY), and triple‑digit gains in gaming.
Healthy cash flow and a free‑cash‑flow margin of 17%.
A Q4 outlook that points to continued double‑digit growth. ^[29]

Even so, Zacks assigns AMD a Rank #3 (Hold), citing:

A rich valuation and weak momentum score,
An overall VGM (Value‑Growth‑Momentum) score of D, and
Expectations for “in‑line” performance in the near term rather than market‑beating returns. ^[30]

6.2 TD Cowen: “Load up ahead of 2026”

On the bullish side, a new TipRanks‑hosted note titled “‘Load Up Ahead of 2026,’ Says Cowen About AMD Stock” highlights TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter’s view: ^[31]

Cowen keeps a Buy rating on AMD and a $290 price target, implying about 35% upside from current levels.
AMD is named a “Best Idea for 2026”, with Buchalter arguing that 2026 will be a breakout year as AMD starts shipping its first full Helios AI rack systems and MI450 GPUs at scale.
The note models Q4 2026 EPS above $10, nearly double last year’s level, and views the recent pullback as an opportunity for long‑term investors.

6.3 Consensus ratings and 12‑month price targets

Across major aggregators, Wall Street remains broadly positive:

MarketBeat lists AMD as a “Moderate Buy”, with no Sell ratings, about 11 Holds and 31 Buys/Strong Buys (roughly 42 analysts tracked). TechStock²+1
MarketBeat’s average 12‑month price target sits around $278–$279, implying roughly 25–30% upside from today’s price, with individual targets ranging from about $140 to $380. TechStock²+1
TipRanks data points to a similar $280+ average target, also implying high‑20s to low‑30s percentage upside. TechStock²+1
StockAnalysis.com shows a somewhat more conservative street average of around $240, based on 34 analysts, with a range from $120 to $345. ^[32]
Retail‑facing platforms such as Public and eToro cite average analyst targets in the $245–$285 range, again clustering around double‑digit upside. ^[33]

Individual calls include:

Recent target hikes to $300–$345 from firms like Wells Fargo, HSBC, Roth Capital and others following AMD’s Analyst Day and Q3 results. ^[34]

The big picture: most analysts expect AMD shares to rise further, but the spread between low and high targets has widened, reflecting higher uncertainty around execution and AI spending.

7. Long‑term AMD stock forecasts: 2030 and beyond

December 4 has also brought a flurry of long‑term scenario analysis.

7.1 $600–$700 per share scenarios for 2030

A widely cited Motley Fool article (also carried by Nasdaq) uses AMD’s own long‑term EPS goal to build a 2030 scenario: ^[35]

If AMD delivers $20 in earnings per share and trades at 30x earnings, the stock could reach about $600 by 2030, nearly tripling from current levels and putting its market cap near $1 trillion.

The TS2 “AMD Stock Today” deep‑dive published this morning takes a similar idea further: TechStock²+1

Using AMD’s 35% revenue CAGR target, Ts2 models revenue approaching $150+ billion, mid‑20s net margins, and an earnings multiple in the 30x range.
In this more aggressive setup, AMD’s implied market cap could exceed $1.1 trillion, with a share price north of $700 by 2030.

Both authors stress that these are scenarios, not guarantees – and that small changes in growth, margins or multiples would dramatically alter the outcome.

7.2 Trillion‑dollar “contender” and 2035 projections

Another new Motley Fool piece, syndicated on Nasdaq under the headline “Could This AI Chipmaker Be the Market’s Next Trillion‑Dollar Contender?”, takes an even longer view: ^[36]

From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect AMD’s revenue to grow at about 34% CAGR and adjusted EPS at 45% CAGR, driven by data center expansion.
If AMD then manages ~20% annual EPS growth over the subsequent nine years and still trades at 30x forward earnings in 2035, the article estimates a potential share price in the ballpark of $1,500+ and a market cap approaching $2.5 trillion.

Again, these are highly speculative, long‑dated projections. The underlying message across today’s bullish pieces is that AMD has a plausible path to the “12‑zero club”, but success depends on it sustaining unusually high growth rates in an intensely competitive market.

7.3 Quant and algorithmic models

Algorithm‑driven forecast sites offer more mechanical (and less nuanced) outlooks:

CoinCodex models place AMD somewhere in the $210–$240 range for 2025 and a very broad $130–$400 band by 2030, illustrating just how wide the uncertainty is in quantitative price projections. ^[37]
Long‑range monthly forecasts from LongForecast show AMD zig‑zagging higher through 2027–2029 with large swings, reinforcing the idea that volatility is likely to remain high. ^[38]

These tools can be useful for scenario thinking, but they’re not a substitute for fundamental analysis.

8. How AMD stacks up against Nvidia and the rest

Even after its AI wins, AMD is still fighting from behind in GPUs.

8.1 Market share snapshot

Fresh data from Jon Peddie Research (JPR) for Q3 2025 shows: ^[39]

Nvidia holding about 92% of the discrete GPU (add‑in‑board) market.
AMD at roughly 7%, up about 0.8 percentage points from the prior quarter.
Intel cracking 1% share for the first time.

In CPUs, AMD’s long campaign against Intel has paid off: one recent analysis pegs AMD’s share of the x86 CPU market at about 38–39%, versus roughly 60% for Intel. ^[40]

The takeaway is clear: AMD has made substantial CPU gains and is slowly chipping away in discrete GPUs, but Nvidia’s dominance in AI accelerators remains overwhelming – which is precisely why AMD’s potential share gains could have outsized impact on its earnings.

8.2 AMD vs. Nvidia in recent analysis

Several pieces published today and this week frame AMD relative to Nvidia:

A re‑syndicated article “Better AI Stock for 2026: Nvidia vs AMD” notes that AMD shares have outperformed Nvidia in 2025 (82% vs. 34% gains) and trade at lower sales multiples, leading the author to favor AMD for 2026 upside if its AI roadmap executes. ^[41]
Another Motley Fool piece, “Should Investors Buy AMD Stock Instead of Nvidia Stock for 2026?”, explores whether AMD’s cheaper valuation and faster projected growth justify choosing it over Nvidia for the next couple of years, while acknowledging Nvidia’s entrenched AI lead. ^[42]
The “trillion‑dollar contender” article explicitly compares AMD to Nvidia and Broadcom, arguing that AMD’s smaller current AI share and lower valuation could give it more room to grow if it successfully scales Instinct GPUs and Helios racks. ^[43]

Overall, current commentary paints AMD as the higher‑beta challenger: more upside if everything goes right, but more sensitive to any missteps or AI spending slowdown.

9. Key risks AMD investors are watching

Even the most bullish analyses out today flag several important risks. Many of these are summarized in the TS2 article and echoed by Reuters, MarketWatch, and others: AMD+3TechStock²+3Reuters+3

Valuation risk
- AMD trades at triple‑digit trailing earnings multiples and around 50–60x forward EPS, versus more mature chipmakers at far lower valuations. A modest disappointment in AI demand, margins or execution could trigger multiple compression even if revenue continues to grow. ^[44]
Dependence on AI capex cycles
- AMD’s growth plan assumes continued hyper‑scale spending on AI data centers by cloud providers, enterprises and sovereign AI programs. Any delay in deployments by big customers like OpenAI, Microsoft or Oracle, or a general slowdown in AI capex, could derail the >35% CAGR targets. ^[45]
Intense competition
- Nvidia remains the dominant AI GPU vendor and is also signing its own multi‑gigawatt deals.
- Major AI operators are simultaneously pursuing custom accelerators with partners like Broadcom, potentially shrinking the addressable market for standard GPUs. ^[46]
Regulatory and geopolitical risk
- U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips have already cost AMD hundreds of millions of dollars in inventory charges and forced it to exclude China revenue from some forecasts. ^[47]
- The new 15% export tax deal for MI308 shipments to China could itself be challenged by lawmakers or the courts, adding further uncertainty. ^[48]
Execution complexity
- AMD is simultaneously ramping MI350, preparing MI400/Helios, expanding EPYC in servers, pushing Ryzen AI PCs, and growing its embedded portfolio – all while scaling its ROCm software stack and manufacturing supply chain. That’s a lot of moving parts, and mis‑execution in any one area could weigh on results. ^[49]

10. Bottom line: What AMD stock looks like on December 4, 2025

Putting everything together, here’s the snapshot of AMD stock right now:

Price & valuation: Around $216 per share, roughly 15–20% below recent highs but still up sharply year‑to‑date, and trading at a premium valuation that bakes in years of strong growth. ^[50]
Fundamentals: Q3 delivered record revenue, expanding margins and strong free cash flow, with Q4 guidance pointing to continued double‑digit growth even excluding China MI308 shipments. ^[51]
Strategic position: AMD has secured headline AI deals with OpenAI, Oracle and other cloud providers, and is rolling out a competitive GPU roadmap (MI350 now, MI400/Helios in 2026) while continuing to gain CPU share in servers and PCs. ^[52]
Street view: Most analysts rate the stock a Moderate/Strong Buy, with 12‑month targets clustered between about $240 and $285, implying 10–30% upside. A growing set of long‑term scenarios imagine AMD as a trillion‑dollar‑plus AI champion with potential share prices from $600 to over $1,500 over the next decade, depending on growth and margin assumptions. Nasdaq+4TechStock²+4StockAnalysis+4
Risk profile: At the same time, cautious voices (including Zacks and some Wall Street analysts) emphasize that AMD faces execution, valuation, competitive and regulatory risks that could significantly impact returns if the AI investment cycle cools or if rivals defend their turf more effectively than expected. ^[53]

For investors, AMD on December 4, 2025 is best viewed as a high‑quality, high‑beta AI and compute play:

It may appeal if you
- have a long time horizon,
- believe the AI data center super‑cycle will remain strong for many years, and
- think AMD can carve out a meaningful, durable slice of that market from Nvidia, Intel and custom silicon competitors.
It may be too risky if you
- are uncomfortable with triple‑digit trailing P/E ratios,
- worry about an AI bubble or export‑control shocks, or
- prefer companies with more diversified, less cyclical revenue streams.

As always, this article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Before buying or selling AMD stock, consider your own financial situation, risk tolerance and time horizon, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser.