Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) heads into Friday’s Dec. 26 session with investors balancing two powerful forces: a fast-moving China export narrative around AMD’s MI308 AI accelerators, and a steady drumbeat of demand signals from the broader AI infrastructure buildout.
U.S. markets are set to reopen for a full trading day on Dec. 26 following the Christmas holiday, after the early close on Dec. 24—a detail that matters because holiday-thin liquidity can amplify headline-driven moves. [1]
Below is a comprehensive pre-market briefing—covering the latest news, the most relevant forecasts and analyst targets, the next catalysts, and the key risks that could move AMD stock when the bell rings.
Quick take: the 5 things most likely to move AMD stock Friday
- China export headlines (MI308): AMD has said it’s prepared to pay a 15% fee/tax tied to shipping MI308 AI chips to China under a licensing regime—an issue that remains politically and legally sensitive. [2]
- Alibaba order chatter: Multiple outlets are pointing to a report that Alibaba may order ~40,000–50,000 MI308 accelerators—a potential demand catalyst, but still not confirmed as a signed contract. [3]
- AI infrastructure spend remains the big tailwind: A $1B Vultr AI cluster plan using AMD Instinct GPUs reinforces that “neocloud” and hyperscaler-style spending isn’t just theoretical. [4]
- Near-term catalyst calendar: AMD’s CES 2026 keynote (Jan. 5) is the next major visibility event, while the next earnings date on many calendars is Feb. 3, 2026 (after close). [5]
- Where price action is clustering: AMD has recently swung through a wide December range (notably around ~$200–$220), meaning technical levels and “year-end positioning” could matter more than usual in a thin session. [6]
Where AMD stock stands heading into the Dec. 26 open
Because U.S. markets were closed on Christmas Day, the most current “official” reference point is the shortened Dec. 24 session and after-hours:
- Dec. 24 close (early close day): about $214.63
- After-hours (Dec. 24): around $214.68
- Dec. 24 volume: about 7.96M shares (often lighter in holiday conditions) [7]
In recent sessions, AMD has shown notable volatility. For example, data tracking recent closes shows a sharp move up on Dec. 19 and a meaningful drawdown earlier in the week—useful context for why traders may treat Friday as a “headline tape” session rather than a purely fundamentals-driven day. [8]
Also worth noting: market commentary going into Dec. 26 is unusually focused on seasonality. MarketWatch highlighted Dec. 26 as historically strong for the S&P 500 (while emphasizing seasonality is not destiny), and the day sits inside the “Santa Claus rally” window—conditions that can influence risk appetite for high-beta names like semiconductors. [9]
The biggest story for AMD right now: China AI chips, MI308 licensing, and demand signals
1) AMD and the 15% fee to ship AI chips to China
One of the most consequential AMD narratives heading into year-end is whether (and how smoothly) AMD can participate in China’s AI infrastructure demand without running afoul of U.S. export policy.
Reuters reported that AMD CEO Lisa Su said the company is ready to pay a 15% fee/tax to the U.S. government on shipments of its MI 308 AI chips to China, and that AMD has shipping licenses for the product—an arrangement that traces back to policy decisions that allowed limited resumption of certain advanced chip exports under specific terms. [10]
This sits on top of the Commerce Department’s broader export-control framework. Reuters previously reported new U.S. export licensing requirements covering chips including AMD’s MI308 (and equivalents), underscoring that approvals and compliance are not optional—and can tighten or shift quickly. [11]
Why it matters for Friday: Any incremental headline—licensing clarifications, policy commentary, or enforcement signals—can move AMD because China is both a revenue opportunity and a regulatory risk.
2) Alibaba order reports: big if confirmed, but still “report-driven”
Multiple market reports this week have pointed to a potential large Alibaba order for AMD’s China-compliant MI308 accelerators (often cited as 40,000 to 50,000 units). [12]
Investors should treat this correctly:
- It is directionally meaningful because large accelerator orders can translate into hundreds of millions (or more) of revenue across quarters depending on pricing, configuration, and delivery schedules.
- It is not the same as an AMD-confirmed purchase order or revenue guidance update.
What to watch Friday morning: whether any outlet reports confirmation (or denial), whether AMD issues any statement, and whether China-side regulators or large cloud providers comment on procurement.
3) Lisa Su’s Beijing meeting adds another layer of attention
Reuters reported that China’s commerce minister met with AMD CEO Lisa Su in Beijing, and that the two sides exchanged views on AMD’s business development in China and strengthening cooperation. [13]
That kind of headline can act as a sentiment catalyst even without concrete deal terms—especially during thin holiday trading.
AI infrastructure demand: the “underneath everything” driver for AMD
Vultr’s $1B AI cluster plan using AMD GPUs
One of the clearest near-term demand signals came from Reuters: cloud infrastructure provider Vultr announced a $1 billion investment to build an AI cluster in Ohio using AMD Instinct MI355X GPUs, describing a buildout that targets cost-sensitive AI customers looking beyond hyperscalers. [14]
Why it matters: It reinforces that AMD’s AI GPU story is not limited to the biggest hyperscalers. If “neocloud” providers scale meaningfully, that can broaden AMD’s customer base and reduce single-customer concentration risk over time.
HPE + AMD “Helios” rack-scale AI push
AMD and Hewlett Packard Enterprise announced an expanded collaboration around open, rack-scale AI infrastructure, tied to AMD’s “Helios” approach and open networking concepts, with availability aimed at 2026. [15]
Tom’s Hardware described the HPE adoption of Helios as a major OEM integration step, emphasizing an “open” Ethernet-based approach positioned against proprietary fabrics, and detailing a path to dense rack-scale GPU deployments. [16]
Why it matters for the stock: AI infrastructure is trending toward “systems,” not just chips. Anything that strengthens AMD’s ability to sell into rack-level deployments (CPU + GPU + networking + software) can support higher long-term revenue per deployment—and potentially stickier relationships.
AMD’s longer-term roadmap: why Wall Street keeps circling back to data center
Analyst Day targets: $100B annual data-center chip revenue ambition
Reuters reported AMD told investors it expects annual data center chip revenue could reach $100 billion within five years, with the broader data center chip market potentially reaching $1 trillion by 2030, and that AMD plans MI400-series AI chips and a full server rack in 2026. [17]
This “ambition gap” is key:
- Bulls see a credible roadmap with expanding TAM and improving ecosystem support.
- Skeptics point to Nvidia’s entrenched platform advantage and the difficulty of displacing incumbents at scale.
Earnings and guidance backdrop still matters
On the nearer-term fundamentals, Reuters reported that AMD forecast fourth-quarter revenue of about $9.6B ± $300M, above consensus at the time, with data center revenue growth supported by AI chip demand and strong PC chip sales in the prior quarter. [18]
What this means into Dec. 26: even though earnings aren’t imminent tomorrow morning, investors will keep mapping every China/AI headline back to whether AMD can hit (or exceed) its growth narrative without margin blowback.
The next big catalysts after Friday: CES 2026 and the Q4 earnings clock
CES 2026: AMD’s CEO keynote is scheduled for Jan. 5
AMD’s official CES page states Dr. Lisa Su will deliver the CES 2026 opening keynote on Jan. 5 at 6:30 p.m. PT, with AMD highlighting its “vision for AI solutions—from cloud to enterprise, edge and devices.” [19]
CES’s own schedule page also lists the AMD keynote for that same date and time. [20]
Why markets care: CES is often a venue for AMD to frame product roadmaps and partnerships (PC, gaming, edge AI, and sometimes data center narrative spillover). Even if no earnings numbers are involved, messaging and product direction can move sentiment.
Next earnings: widely listed as Feb. 3, 2026 (after close)
Several widely used calendars list AMD’s next earnings report for Feb. 3, 2026 (timing: after close). [21]
Why it matters now: between now and then, the market will react to:
- China export developments (licenses, approvals, restrictions)
- AI GPU demand signals (customer wins, ramp pace)
- Competitive headlines (Nvidia, Intel, and custom silicon news)
- Any margin or supply-chain updates
Wall Street forecasts and analyst targets: what the consensus is implying
Analyst targets are not guarantees, but they influence narrative and can shape where investors “anchor” expectations.
- MarketBeat shows an average price target around $277.06, with a wide range (low to high) and the Street-high cited at $380. [22]
- TipRanks lists an average price target around $279.94, also showing a broad high/low spread. [23]
- Zacks similarly reflects a target range that reaches up to $380 (with a lower bound that can differ by dataset and analyst coverage window). [24]
Recent analyst commentary around China/AI has been active. For instance, Investors.com noted Truist maintained a buy stance while slightly lowering its AMD price target (reported as from $279 to $277) amid broader AI infrastructure optimism. [25]
How to interpret this before Friday’s open:
- The target cluster in the high-$200s suggests many analysts are still underwriting meaningful upside versus ~$215 levels.
- The range is extremely wide, which is a fancy way of saying “high uncertainty”—usually tied to how fast AMD can scale AI GPU revenue, how durable margins are, and whether geopolitics caps the China opportunity.
The technical setup: practical levels traders are watching (not predictions)
Using recent price history, AMD has recently traded around several psychologically important zones:
- ~$220 area: recent resistance zone from late December highs
- ~$204 area: a recent support zone tied to a sharp rally day
- ~$200 round number: psychologically important and often defended/attacked in momentum names [26]
If Friday brings no major company-specific news, AMD may trade more like a “semiconductor beta” play on risk sentiment. If China headlines hit, those levels can break quickly—especially in holiday-thin conditions.
The risk section investors shouldn’t ignore (especially into 2026)
Export rules can tighten fast—and legislation is in the mix
Beyond current licensing policy, there’s also political momentum to codify or extend restrictions. Tom’s Hardware reported on the proposed SAFE Chips Act concept that would aim to curb leading-edge AI chip exports further (including constraining what can be sold into sensitive regions), which could materially affect how investors model AMD’s China opportunity. [27]
Competitive pressure remains real
AMD’s roadmap (MI400/Helios, CPU leadership, open networking) is ambitious, but the AI accelerator market remains intensely competitive, with Nvidia still the dominant platform in many deployments. Any Nvidia/Intel/custom-silicon headline can bleed into AMD trading even without AMD-specific news.
AI capex is strong—but markets will keep asking “ROI?”
Even AMD’s CEO has publicly pushed back on “AI bubble” fears, but the market will keep testing whether massive capex translates into sustainable cash flows across the ecosystem. [28]
Bottom line for the Dec. 26 open
If you’re watching AMD stock before the bell Friday, the most actionable mindset is this:
- China MI308 headlines are the swing factor—especially any confirmation/clarification around large customer orders or export approvals. [29]
- The structural bull case remains anchored to AI infrastructure scale-out (including non-hyperscaler demand signals like Vultr) and AMD’s longer-term data center ambitions. [30]
- The next major narrative checkpoints are already on the calendar: CES (Jan. 5) and earnings (Feb. 3). [31]
- With markets open for a full session on Dec. 26, expect lighter liquidity and potentially exaggerated reactions, particularly if breaking news hits the tape. [32]
This article is for informational purposes and reflects publicly available reporting and consensus datasets as of Dec. 25, 2025. It is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investors.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.amd.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. ir.amd.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.amd.com, 16. www.tomshardware.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.amd.com, 20. www.ces.tech, 21. finance.yahoo.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.zacks.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.tomshardware.com, 28. www.wired.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.amd.com, 32. www.reuters.com
