American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) is back in the spotlight this Thanksgiving week. By mid‑afternoon on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, the stock was trading around $13.5 per share, up a little over 3% on the day, after earlier gains of roughly 5% in midday trade. [1]
The move comes as investors weigh record (or near‑record) Thanksgiving travel, shifting expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, and new institutional positioning in the airline.
Below is a full roundup of the key AAL stock news dated November 25, 2025, along with the fundamental context long‑term investors are watching.
Key Takeaways
- AAL trades near $13.5, up more than 3% Tuesday afternoon after briefly jumping over 5% earlier in the session. [2]
- Historic Thanksgiving travel is supporting airline stocks: industry forecasts call for over 31 million air passengers in the Nov. 21–Dec. 1 period, with American planning about 80,759 flights, the most of any U.S. carrier. [3]
- A 43‑day U.S. government shutdown earlier this fall has trimmed some demand, with domestic flight bookings for the holiday period down roughly 4.5% year‑over‑year, but American still expects a record operational schedule. [4]
- Bets on a December Fed rate cut have surged, with futures markets pricing in roughly an 81% probability; that’s particularly important for American, which carries one of the highest debt loads among U.S. legacy carriers. [5]
- Hedge fund manager David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management added about 9.25 million AAL shares in Q3, while asset manager Creative Planning trimmed its stake by 10.4%, highlighting a mixed but active institutional backdrop. [6]
- Despite today’s bounce, AAL remains down more than 20% year‑to‑date and trades about 30% below its 52‑week high around $19.10, even after rallying some 60% off its 52‑week low near $8.50. [7]
American Airlines (AAL) Stock Price Today – November 25, 2025
As of the latest afternoon data:
- Last price: about $13.54
- Day’s move: roughly +3–3.5% versus Monday’s close around $13.10 [8]
- Intraday high (midday): around $13.78, up about 5% at the time Benzinga reported on the move. [9]
- Volume: over 57 million shares, roughly in line with its very active average daily volume. [10]
- 52‑week range: approximately $8.50–$19.10. [11]
That puts AAL well off its lows, but still notably below the highs it saw earlier this year. Even with Tuesday’s gains, performance is still negative for 2025: AAL is down more than 20% year‑to‑date, highlighting how volatile the year has been for airline investors. [12]
Record Thanksgiving Travel: A Big Tailwind for AAL
A major driver of today’s move is holiday travel demand.
A joint Zacks/Nasdaq analysis published this morning notes that trade group Airlines for America (A4A) expects more than 31 million passengers to fly on U.S. airlines between November 21 and December 1, an all‑time high, averaging around 2.8 million passengers per day. [13]
Within that bullish outlook, American Airlines stands out:
- AAL expects to operate 80,759 scheduled flights between Nov. 20 and Dec. 2 – more than any other U.S. carrier.
- The airline anticipates peak travel days on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 and expects to handle roughly 5.6 million checked bags during the period. [14]
Separately, AAA’s Thanksgiving travel forecast projects nearly 82 million Americans traveling across all modes (road, air, rail, cruise) over the holiday period, reinforcing the picture of very strong leisure demand. [15]
And a Seeking Alpha note this morning highlighted American among 10 airline stocks to watch as Thanksgiving travel ramps up, further boosting investor attention on AAL in particular. [16]
Shutdown Hangover: Travel Boom, With an Asterisk
The demand story is not entirely one‑way. A new Reuters report today points out that a 43‑day U.S. government shutdown earlier this fall forced the FAA to order flight cuts at 40 major U.S. airports, dampening some of the expected surge in air travel. [17]
Key points from Reuters:
- As of Nov. 24, flight bookings for the core five‑day Thanksgiving window were down about 4.48% year‑over‑year, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
- AAA still expects about 6 million domestic air travelers, up 2% from 2024, but bookings slowed sharply once the shutdown passed the one‑month mark. [18]
- Despite the pullback in bookings, American still plans nearly 81,000 flights for the period, up from 77,000 last year, and United is forecasting the highest Thanksgiving passenger volumes in its history. [19]
In other words: the schedule is record‑breaking, even if actual ticket sales are somewhat softer than they might have been in a no‑shutdown world. That combination still supports the bullish narrative for AAL stock today, but it adds nuance to the “record travel” headlines.
Rate‑Cut Hopes: Why the Fed Matters So Much for American
Today’s rally is not just about planes being full. It’s also about interest rates.
A midday Benzinga piece titled “What’s Going On With American Airlines Stock? Record Crowds Meet New Rate Cut Hopes” ties AAL’s move directly to a sharp jump in the odds of a December Fed rate cut. [20]
According to that report and futures market data:
- Fed officials have recently sounded more dovish, acknowledging a softening labor market.
- Futures now price in roughly an 81% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting. [21]
For American Airlines in particular, that matters because:
- AAL carries one of the heaviest debt loads among major U.S. legacy carriers, a burden that grew through pandemic survival financing and fleet modernization. [22]
- A lower federal funds rate directly eases pressure on interest expense, especially on variable‑rate obligations and future refinancing. [23]
Benzinga also notes that a rate cut would support consumer discretionary spending, which is crucial for airlines at a time when some data are hinting at “consumer fatigue.” [24]
So today’s stock move reflects a double boost:
- Near‑term revenue tailwind from heavy holiday travel.
- Medium‑term balance sheet relief if the Fed indeed starts trimming rates.
Big Money Moves: Tepper Adds, Creative Planning Trims
Another notable November 25 headline: billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper is leaning into American Airlines.
An article published today by Insider Monkey reports that Tepper’s firm, Appaloosa Management, added about 9.25 million AAL shares in the third quarter, based on its latest 13F filing. [25]
The piece also highlights:
- AAL is counted among “8 Best Airline Stocks to Buy Heading into 2026” in Insider Monkey’s broader airline coverage. [26]
- TD Cowen analyst Thomas Fitzgerald reiterated a Buy rating on AAL on October 27 with a $18 price target, suggesting meaningful upside from today’s ~$13.5 level. [27]
On the other side of the ledger, MarketBeat reports today that wealth manager Creative Planningtrimmed its AAL stake by 10.4% in Q2, selling about 25,299 shares and leaving it with 217,035 shares valued at approximately $2.44 million at the time of filing. [28]
That same piece notes a cluster of other institutional investors modestly increasing their positions, and estimates that about 52% of AAL’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, underscoring that professional money remains deeply involved in the stock. [29]
Taken together, Tepper’s sizable buy and Creative Planning’s partial trim paint a picture of a name where sophisticated investors are actively repositioning rather than walking away.
Fundamentals After Q3: Narrower Loss, Profit Guidance and Premium Demand
Today’s news sits on top of a fundamental story that turned more constructive after October’s earnings.
Q3 2025 Results
In late October, American Airlines reported:
- An adjusted loss of $0.17 per share for Q3 2025 – significantly better than Wall Street’s expectation for a $0.27 loss.
- Quarterly revenue of about $13.69 billion, slightly ahead of consensus estimates around $13.65 billion. [30]
Reuters notes that the company also raised its full‑year 2025 profit forecast, now targeting adjusted EPS between $0.65 and $0.95, a sharp improvement from its prior guidance range of a potential loss to a modest profit. [31]
MarketBeat’s recap adds that AAL’s own guidance for Q4 2025 adjusted EPS is $0.45–$0.75, implying a return to profitability in the holiday quarter. [32]
Premium Seats Still Doing the Heavy Lifting
Both Reuters and other commentary emphasize that premium cabins and loyalty revenue remain the star performers:
- Premium unit revenue growth is outpacing the main cabin, as higher‑yield customers pay up for better seats and benefits. [33]
- American plans to expand premium seating at roughly twice the pace of main‑cabin seats and invest in lounges and airport infrastructure to close the margin gap with rivals like Delta and United. [34]
In the Zacks/Nasdaq holiday travel piece published today, analysts note that earnings estimates for American have been revised sharply higher in the past 60 days – up about 81% for the current year and 13% for next year, signaling that the Street’s expectations are improving even if its official rating remains cautious. [35]
Analyst Sentiment and Valuation Snapshot
The MarketBeat 13F article also compiles the latest views from Wall Street analysts: [36]
- Ratings mix: 2 “Strong Buy,” 9 “Buy,” 7 “Hold” and 2 “Sell.”
- Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy.”
- Consensus price target: about $16.65 per share.
Compared with today’s ~$13.54 trading level, that implies roughly 23% upside if the average analyst target proves accurate. [37]
From a valuation perspective (Finviz data):
- Market cap: around $8.9 billion.
- Trailing P/E: in the mid‑teens (~15–16).
- Forward P/E: under 8x expected earnings.
- Short interest: just over 10% of the float, which can amplify moves when sentiment swings. [38]
Those numbers underscore the market’s view of AAL as a high‑risk, high‑beta cyclical: inexpensive on forward estimates, but with enough leverage and volatility to justify a discount.
Today’s Negative Headline: Odor‑Related Diversion and Hospitalizations
Not all of today’s American Airlines news is bullish.
A Fox Business report this morning details how American Airlines Flight 2118, traveling from Orlando to Phoenix on Sunday, diverted to Houston after the crew reported fumes in the cockpit and cabin. Five people (four crew and one passenger) were taken to hospital for evaluation. [39]
Key points:
- The aircraft, an Airbus A321, landed safely at George Bush Intercontinental Airport around 7:10 p.m. local time.
- Passengers were re‑accommodated on another aircraft to continue to Phoenix.
- American apologized to customers and thanked crew for their professionalism. [40]
Operational incidents like this usually have limited direct financial impact on a carrier’s quarterly results, but they do matter for:
- Brand perception and customer trust, especially when widely reported.
- Regulatory oversight and compliance costs if patterns emerge over time.
For investors, it’s a reminder that airlines carry operational and reputational risk alongside macro and financial risks.
How Today Fits Into the Bigger AAL Picture
Putting it all together, today’s action in American Airlines stock reflects several overlapping themes:
- Near‑Term Demand vs. Shutdown Drag
- Rate‑Sensitive Balance Sheet
- AAL’s heavy debt load makes it unusually sensitive to interest‑rate expectations, so the market’s shift toward expecting a December rate cut is a meaningful catalyst. [43]
- Improving (But Not Risk‑Free) Fundamentals
- Institutional Money Still Engaged
- Tepper’s Q3 purchase suggests some high‑conviction investors see value at these levels.
- Creative Planning’s trim and the “Moderate Buy” consensus rating show others are more cautious. [46]
- Valuation and Risk Balance
- Trading below the consensus target and well under its 52‑week high, AAL looks inexpensive if earnings actually track management and analyst forecasts.
- But the stock’s cyclical nature, leverage, and operational risks (like the diversion incident) help explain why some investors remain on the sidelines.
What Investors Are Likely Watching Next
For traders and longer‑term investors following AAL, here are the next catalysts to monitor:
- December Fed meeting – Will the Fed actually deliver the rate cut that futures now price in? That decision could materially influence AAL’s financing costs and investor sentiment. [47]
- Realized Thanksgiving and Christmas results – Do actual passenger counts and yields match the bullish forecasts, especially after the shutdown?
- Fuel prices and labor costs – Two of the largest line items in any airline’s cost structure.
- Debt management – Any refinancing moves, liability management transactions, or updated leverage targets.
- Operational reliability and safety headlines – Incidents like Flight 2118’s diversion can accumulate reputational risk if they become frequent. [48]
References
1. www.benzinga.com, 2. www.benzinga.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. www.insidermonkey.com, 7. finviz.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.benzinga.com, 10. finviz.com, 11. finviz.com, 12. finviz.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. newsroom.aaa.com, 16. seekingalpha.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. www.benzinga.com, 23. www.benzinga.com, 24. www.benzinga.com, 25. www.insidermonkey.com, 26. www.insidermonkey.com, 27. www.insidermonkey.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. finviz.com, 39. www.foxbusiness.com, 40. www.foxbusiness.com, 41. www.nasdaq.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.benzinga.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.insidermonkey.com, 47. www.benzinga.com, 48. www.foxbusiness.com
