Dec. 25, 2025 — With U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day, investors are using the pause to take stock of American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) after a strong 2025 run. The story heading into year-end is familiar—but still powerful: affluent cardmember spend is holding up, AmEx is leaning harder into premium fees and lifestyle benefits, and the company’s most recent credit snapshots show steady delinquencies even as charge-offs tick higher.
AXP last traded at $383.11 (as of Dec. 24), near the upper end of its recent range.
Below is a detailed roundup of the latest news, forecasts, and analysis shaping American Express as of Dec. 25, 2025, including what analysts are watching into the company’s next earnings report.
What’s new for American Express this week
Several developments from the past few weeks are framing the conversation around AXP going into 2026:
- Holiday-week spending data: AmEx said U.S. retail spending on its network rose 9% around Thanksgiving week, with Platinum retail spending up 13% in the same period, according to remarks by CEO Stephen Squeri at an investor conference. [1]
- Updated 2025 guidance: In October, AmEx raised the lower end of its 2025 outlook, pointing to resilient spending by higher-income customers. [2]
- Credit trends filing: A December SEC filing highlighted stable 30-day delinquency rates in U.S. consumer and small business card loans through November. [3]
- Shareholder payout: The board declared a $0.82 quarterly dividend, payable Feb. 10, 2026, to shareholders of record Jan. 2, 2026. [4]
- Next earnings date set: AmEx plans to host its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings call on Jan. 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with results and presentation materials typically posted around 7:00 a.m. ET ahead of the call. [5]
- Regulatory headline in Europe: France’s data protection regulator, the CNIL, said it fined AMERICAN EXPRESS CARTE FRANCE€1.5 million for cookie-related compliance failures. [6]
These aren’t isolated datapoints; together, they map neatly to AmEx’s investment debate: premium pricing power vs. premium valuation.
The 2025 holiday season: AmEx points to stronger-than-feared spending
For card networks and issuers, the year-end stretch matters. It’s when transaction volume rises across retail, travel, dining, and gifting—categories that flow through AmEx’s closed-loop network and help drive fee revenue.
In the clearest recent “read” on consumer behavior, Reuters reported that AmEx saw a 9% increase in U.S. retail consumer spending around Thanksgiving week, and a 13% increase among U.S. consumer Platinum retail spending in the period spanning the week before Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, based on CEO Stephen Squeri’s comments. [7]
That matters for two reasons:
- It supports the premium narrative. Platinum cardmembers outpacing the broader AmEx base is exactly what investors want to see as the company raises fees and refreshes benefits. [8]
- It reduces downside anxiety into earnings. Even if macro headlines stay noisy, a firm holiday season can soften fear about a rapid consumer slowdown hitting billed business, travel, and discretionary spend. [9]
The broader holiday picture also looked constructive across the payments ecosystem, with Visa and Mastercard both pointing to growth in seasonal spending in recent reports—useful context for the “rising tide” backdrop AmEx is operating within. [10]
Platinum is the centerpiece: $895 annual fee and $3,500+ in stated value
AmEx’s premium card strategy took a decisive step in 2025 with the long-awaited refresh of its U.S. Platinum Cards.
Reuters reported that American Express added perks worth more than $3,500 annually while hiking the annual fee by $200—a move designed to reinforce AmEx’s positioning at the high end of the market. [11]
The company’s investor relations release framed the refresh around expanded benefits across travel, dining, entertainment, shopping, wellness, and business categories, plus a mirror-design edition. [12]
What investors are watching with Platinum
The thesis isn’t just “charge more.” It’s:
- Can AmEx keep acquisition strong even with a higher headline fee?
- Do new benefits shift spending onto AmEx rails (dining, travel, rideshare, etc.)?
- Do card fees and billed business compound together, or do benefits become too expensive to fund?
AmEx has argued early demand has been strong. An AP report on AmEx’s Q3 results noted management said customers didn’t appear deterred by the higher fee and increased competition, and highlighted significant interest in the new mirrored card finish soon after launch. [13]
For fee timing, the AmEx disclosures indicate the $895 annual fee applies immediately for new cardmembers, while existing cardmembers transition at renewal timelines depending on product. [14]
This premium push is playing out in a competitive arena, with other major issuers also upgrading high-end products to win affluent spend. [15]
Credit quality check: stable delinquencies, write-offs inching higher
One of the most important “under-the-hood” reads on a consumer finance business is credit performance—especially late in a cycle.
In a December SEC filing summarizing updated credit statistics for September through November 2025, AmEx reported:
- Total U.S. card loans held for investment:$129.1 billion in November (vs. $126.4B in October; $124.8B in September)
- U.S. consumer card loans:$97.7B in November, with 30-day delinquent loans at 1.4% and a net write-off rate (principal) of 2.1%
- U.S. small business card loans:$31.4B in November, with 30-day delinquencies at 1.6% and a net write-off rate (principal) of 2.7% [16]
The headline: delinquencies were steady across the three reported months, while small business write-offs showed a modest upward drift. [17]
For AXP, that’s a key support pillar. AmEx’s brand is strongly associated with higher-income cardmembers, and investors tend to underwrite the stock on the assumption that its customer base is comparatively resilient in downturns. [18]
Dividend and shareholder returns: $0.82 quarterly payout
American Express declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.82 per share, payable Feb. 10, 2026 to shareholders of record on Jan. 2, 2026, according to the company’s announcement distributed via Business Wire. [19]
For long-term holders, the dividend is less about yield and more about a steady signal: management believes earnings power can support ongoing capital return while still funding marketing, benefits, and investment. (AmEx also historically uses buybacks as a major return lever, though the dividend release itself focuses on the payout.) [20]
Regulation: France’s CNIL cookie fine adds a compliance headline
In Europe, privacy enforcement remains an active risk area for consumer-facing financial brands.
France’s CNIL said it sanctioned AMERICAN EXPRESS CARTE FRANCE with a €1.5 million fine related to cookie compliance, citing practices such as placing cookies without consent, placing cookies despite refusal, and continuing to read cookies after consent withdrawal. [21]
While this is not a core earnings driver for a company of AmEx’s size, regulatory actions matter for two reasons:
- They can trigger remediation costs and oversight burdens.
- They keep attention on digital consent design, a growing issue as financial services increasingly operate through apps and personalized marketing. [22]
Business momentum beyond consumer cards: small business and corporate spend tech
AmEx continues to position itself as more than “a card”—a theme spanning small business engagement, dining, and commercial expense automation.
Shop Small and small business support
In a Business Wire release, AmEx announced a new $5 million Shop Small grants program, with initial grants described as 250 awards of $20,000 each, aimed at helping eligible U.S. small businesses grow and innovate. [23]
The same release cited survey findings that 86% of consumers said they are likely to “Shop Small” this holiday season, and that small business owners, on average, expect nearly 20% of annual revenue to come from Small Business Saturday sales. [24]
Resy and premium dining
AmEx-owned reservation platform Resy published a 2025 retrospective pointing to dining trends and the growing role of restaurant technology integration—part of AmEx’s broader strategy to embed itself in lifestyle “experiences,” not just payments. [25]
Expense management automation
On the commercial side, an industry report described AmEx expanding an existing partnership with Emburse to support virtual card issuance and real-time transaction data within expense management workflows—capabilities aimed at improving controls and reducing friction for enterprise spend programs. [26]
That matters because commercial spend tends to be “stickier” once integrated into workflows—and it can help diversify growth away from purely consumer revolving credit economics. [27]
AXP stock on Dec. 25: strong performance, but valuation debate is heating up
AXP’s stock has been strong in 2025, though the exact performance snapshot depends on the measurement window.
- MarketWatch noted that on Dec. 22, AXP closed at $380.85, and remained 1.71% below its 52-week high of $387.49 reached Dec. 12. [28]
- A third-party valuation commentary published Dec. 25 described AXP as up 28.4% year-to-date (at the time of publication), while also flagging valuation concerns under its framework. [29]
That tension—great business, expensive stock—is showing up in analyst target dispersion.
Wall Street targets and ratings: mixed-to-cautious at current prices
One Nasdaq-hosted note (sourced to Fintel data) stated that as of Dec. 21, the average one-year price target for American Express was $369.05, ranging from $275.64 to $485.10, implying modest downside from a then-recent close. [30]
Meanwhile, MarketBeat’s rolling compilation showed a “Hold” consensus rating, with an average 12-month price target materially below the mid-$380s area (based on its methodology and included analysts). [31]
The takeaway: the bull case still exists (premium spend, pricing power, strong brand), but many analysts appear to be saying, “We like the company—just not necessarily the price after the rally.” [32]
Quant-style forecasts circulating today
As of Dec. 25, algorithmic forecast pages also circulated near-term and long-dated projections, though these are model-driven and can vary widely by assumptions and inputs. [33]
Dec. 25 “tape”: institutional rebalancing and insider trading headlines
Some of the most visible AmEx items dated Dec. 25 are not product launches or earnings updates—they’re market-structure headlines pulled from filings and compiled by market sites.
For example:
- MarketBeat flagged SEC filing-driven updates showing certain investment advisers reduced positions in AXP during the third quarter. [34]
- A Reuters/Refinitiv-style insider item circulated via TradingView said an AmEx officer filed a Form 4 disclosing a sale of 1,400 shares (and a separate gift transaction) tied to Dec. 12 activity. [35]
By themselves, these items typically don’t change fundamentals. But in a richly valued stock, investors often monitor insider and institutional activity for sentiment clues—especially into year-end positioning.
The next big catalyst: AmEx Q4 2025 earnings on Jan. 30, 2026
American Express plans to discuss Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, per its announced webcast schedule. [36]
What to watch in the results
Based on AmEx’s recent commentary and the themes driving the stock, here are the key items likely to dominate Q4 questions:
- Billed business growth and mix
Are retail and travel still accelerating? Does Platinum growth continue to outpace the base? [37] - Card fees vs. benefits expense
Platinum refresh economics are crucial. Fee revenue growth is great—unless offsets (credits, perks, marketing) rise even faster. [38] - Credit costs
Investors will scrutinize provisions and charge-offs, especially with small business write-off rates edging up in recent monthly data. [39] - 2026 outlook
AmEx already raised the lower end of 2025 guidance, projecting 2025 EPS of $15.20–$15.50 and revenue growth of 9%–10%. The market will want to see whether that momentum extends into 2026. [40]
The “Buffett factor”: Berkshire’s big stake keeps AmEx in the spotlight
AXP also benefits from an unusual kind of investor attention: it remains a major holding of Berkshire Hathaway.
Kiplinger’s summary of Berkshire’s U.S. equity portfolio (as of Q3 2025 13F data) listed Berkshire as holding 151,610,700 shares of American Express, valued at about $50.36 billion, representing 18.84% of Berkshire’s U.S. equity portfolio at that time. [41]
That doesn’t directly change AmEx’s operations, but it does keep AXP regularly in the financial media conversation—especially when Berkshire-related narratives trend. [42]
Bottom line for Dec. 25, 2025: AmEx enters 2026 with momentum—at a demanding valuation
American Express heads into the new year with:
- Holiday spending indicators that look healthy, especially at the premium end. [43]
- Stable delinquency rates in recent monthly credit snapshots. [44]
- A clear near-term calendar: dividend (Feb. 10) and earnings (Jan. 30). [45]
- A market debate that’s shifting from “Is the business strong?” to “How much of that strength is already priced in?” [46]
For investors and readers tracking AXP stock into 2026, the most decisive test is likely the same one that has driven AmEx’s edge for years: whether the company can keep converting affluent engagement into sustained spending, higher fee revenue, and controlled credit costs—without letting the premium strategy become a premium expense problem. [47]
References
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