New York, January 14, 2026, 14:26 EST — Regular session
American Express shares were down 0.6% at $356.00 in afternoon trading on Wednesday, as investors kept a policy discount on credit-card lenders even as some payments peers steadied. Visa edged up 0.1% and Mastercard gained 0.1%, while the S&P 500 ETF fell about 0.9% and the financial sector ETF was down roughly 0.5%.
The drag is a proposal backed by U.S. President Donald Trump for a one-year cap that would limit credit-card interest rates to 10% starting Jan. 20, a direct hit to interest income in the sector. American Express fell 3.8% on Monday when the idea landed, and analysts questioned whether the plan can be implemented without Congress; UBS Global wrote it “would take an Act of Congress.” J.P. Morgan analyst Vivek Juneja warned the cap “could push consumers towards more expensive debt.” 1
Banks and industry groups have moved quickly to frame the cap as a credit-access problem, not a pricing fix. The Electronic Payments Coalition said nearly every credit card account tied to a credit score below 740 — 82% to 88% of open accounts — would be closed or severely restricted under a 10% cap, and its executive chairman Richard Hunt said a “one-size-fits-all” cap “wouldn’t help Americans.” Morningstar analyst Michael Miller said Trump’s statement was “mostly a call to action,” while Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator’s Brian Shearer countered: “The profit margins are absolutely massive.” 2
The politics already showed up in tape action this week. On Tuesday, financial shares led Wall Street lower, with Visa down 4.5% and Mastercard off 3.8%; “Financials are getting hit by Trump’s credit-card proposal,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder. 3
The fight is over APR — annual percentage rate — the interest charged when consumers carry balances month to month. That’s where a 10% ceiling bites, because higher rates are used to cover defaults and to price riskier borrowers, and it helps fund the economics of reward-heavy cards.
The mechanics are ugly if the cap turns into law. Truist Securities said it would swing the business into the red, and Barclays said a cap would be “material headwinds to card profitability” and likely force card issuers to tighten who qualifies for credit. Credit-card rates can run as high as 30%, compared with just above 6% on a 30-year fixed mortgage, Bankrate data show. 4
Still, none of this is settled. Traders are trying to handicap whether the White House can turn a post into enforceable policy, and whether Congress has any appetite to do the heavy lifting.
The risk case for American Express holders is simple: if a rate cap gains momentum, lenders may respond by shrinking credit lines, tweaking annual fees, or trimming rewards — steps that can protect margins but also slow spending and growth. The bull case is just as plain: if the plan stalls, the policy cloud lifts and the stock trades back to company basics.
Those basics come back into view at the end of the month. American Express is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year results on Friday, Jan. 30, at 8:30 a.m. ET. 5
Between now and then, AXP is likely to trade on headlines and positioning as much as fundamentals. The next hard markers for investors are any concrete steps ahead of Jan. 20 — and what AmEx says on Jan. 30 about lending, rewards and credit trends under a fresh Washington spotlight.
