Updated December 1, 2025
Amgen stock at a glance on December 1, 2025
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) closed today at $337.49, down about 2.3% on the session, according to real‑time quote data. [1]
Despite today’s pullback, the stock has had a powerful run: Zacks notes that Amgen shares are up almost 16% over the past month, significantly outpacing the broader healthcare sector. [2] Benzinga pegs Amgen’s 2025 year‑to‑date return at roughly 31% and 1‑year return at about 20%, with a market cap around $184–186 billion. [3]
Intraday, Amgen was one of the main drags on the Dow: MarketWatch highlighted that losses in Merck and Amgen were among the biggest contributors to the index’s nearly 350‑point decline, with AMGN off a bit more than 2% by mid‑afternoon. [4]
On the flow and sentiment side:
- QuiverQuant reports AMGN was down about 3% intraday, with roughly $384 million in trading volume and ranking as the 294th most‑searched ticker on its platform over the last day. [5]
- Short interest has risen 16.8% since the last report to 13.4 million shares, or about 2.5% of the float, equating to 7.1 days to cover – still below the 6.86% peer‑group average, but clearly trending upward. [6]
In short: Amgen just came off a strong earnings beat and a big multi‑week rally, but today’s session shows some profit‑taking and a modest pickup in bearish positioning.
What drove the recent rally? Q3 2025 earnings and guidance
The core fundamental driver of the recent run was Amgen’s third‑quarter 2025 report on November 4.
According to Reuters and company filings: [7]
- Revenue: $9.56 billion, up 12% year‑over‑year, beating consensus estimates of about $8.97 billion.
- Adjusted EPS: $5.64, roughly $0.60 above Wall Street expectations (~$5.01).
- Drivers:
- Cholesterol drug Repatha saw sales jump about 40% year‑over‑year to $794 million on higher demand. [8]
- Core osteoporosis drug Prolia and other growth drivers, including newer rare‑disease assets acquired via Horizon, also contributed strongly. [9]
- Older blockbuster Enbrel declined about 30% in sales as pricing headwinds and Medicare changes weighed on the franchise. [10]
Management also raised full‑year 2025 guidance, now expecting: [11]
- Revenue: $35.8–36.6 billion (up from $35–36 billion).
- Adjusted EPS: $20.60–21.40 (up from $20.20–21.30).
Analysts widely described the quarter as a “beat and raise,” with multiple products exceeding expectations even after accounting changes. [12]
Forecast data aggregated by StockAnalysis show Wall Street now modeling: [13]
- 2025 revenue: about $36.4 billion, +8.8% vs 2024.
- 2026 revenue: about $37.0 billion, implying slower ~1.8% growth.
- 2025 EPS: about $21.45 (a huge jump as Horizon acquisition costs roll off).
- 2026 EPS:$22.00, a more modest ~2.6% increase.
So the story is: big step‑up in earnings this year, followed by much slower growth in 2026 unless pipeline catalysts kick in.
Key growth engines: Repatha, biosimilars, and the MariTide obesity program
Repatha and cardiovascular momentum
Amgen is increasingly leaning on Repatha, its PCSK9 inhibitor, as a long‑term growth pillar.
- In Q3, Repatha’s 40% revenue growth was a standout. [14]
- In early November, a major outcomes trial showed that adding Repatha to standard therapy cut the risk of a first major cardiovascular event by 25% in high‑risk patients with no prior heart attack or stroke. [15]
This new data bolsters the argument that Repatha should move earlier in the treatment algorithm, which could support sustained double‑digit growth in the coming years if payers and guidelines follow the science.
Biosimilars and diversification
Zacks highlights that Amgen’s biosimilar portfolio is now generating around $2.2 billion in sales for the first nine months of 2025, annualizing near $3 billion. [16]
Key points from that analysis:
- Biosimilars to Stelara (Wezlana), Eylea (Pavblu) and Soliris (Bekemv) are ramping quickly.
- Since 2018, Amgen’s biosimilars have generated nearly $13 billion in cumulative sales, helping offset looming losses of exclusivity (LOE) for legacy brands like Prolia and Xgeva. [17]
However, the same article notes that Prolia/Xgeva patents expired in the US in early 2025 and in parts of Europe later in the year, with several competing biosimilars already launched. That means Erosion in this >10% revenue contributor is now a real near‑term headwind. [18]
MariTide: the obesity wildcard
The biggest swing factor for Amgen’s long‑term multiple is MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), its GLP‑1/GIP pathway obesity candidate:
- Phase 2 data published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed substantial weight loss with once‑monthly injections in people with obesity, with or without type 2 diabetes. [19]
- Full Phase 2 results presented in June, however, disappointed Wall Street: average weight loss of up to 16% looked less dramatic once drop‑outs were included, and gastrointestinal side effects like vomiting led to treatment discontinuations. [20]
BioPharma Dive notes that MariTide’s efficacy profile looks a bit weaker than Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and only slightly better than Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy in cross‑trial comparisons, while the side‑effect profile forced changes to Amgen’s dosing strategy. [21]
On the positive side:
- Amgen is targeting monthly or less‑frequent dosing, which would be a huge convenience advantage if sustained efficacy holds up. [22]
- Phase 3 MARITIME trials now incorporate slower dose escalation to improve tolerability.
On the risk side:
- The need for more complex dosing narrows the convenience advantage versus competitors. [23]
- Expectations, which initially added billions to Amgen’s market cap when early MariTide data appeared, have already been tempered.
Bottom line on the pipeline: MariTide remains a potentially transformative obesity asset, but the data so far suggest a balanced risk‑reward, not an obvious category killer. Investors are now more focused on execution in Phase 3 than on blue‑sky scenarios.
Oncology and Imdelltra: a quiet but important upside driver
Amgen’s oncology franchise also has meaningful catalysts, notably Imdelltra (tarlatamab), its bispecific antibody for extensive‑stage small cell lung cancer (ES‑SCLC).
- A large Phase 3 trial (DeLLphi‑304) showed Imdelltra cut the risk of death by about 40% vs standard chemotherapy, extending median overall survival to 13.6 months vs 8.3 months for chemo. [24]
- Serious adverse events were less frequent than with chemotherapy, which supports a favorable benefit‑risk profile.
These results support the drug’s earlier accelerated approval and strengthen the case that Imdelltra can become a multi‑billion‑dollar oncology franchise if earlier‑line and broader indications pan out.
Today’s big question: is Amgen overvalued after the rally?
Several fresh pieces of research published on December 1, 2025 highlight the valuation debate.
Valuation snapshot
DirectorsTalk’s new analysis points out that: [25]
- Amgen’s revenue grew about 12.4% and return on equity is above 80% – both very strong metrics.
- Free cash flow is over $11 billion, providing plenty of room for R&D, acquisitions and buybacks.
- The dividend yield is around 2.7–2.8%, with a payout ratio in the low‑70s%.
- Yet the average analyst target price of ~$322.9 implies roughly 6–7% downside from recent trading levels, and consensus ratings are split: 14 Buy, 15 Hold, 3 Sell.
Zacks, meanwhile, notes that Amgen trades at around 16× forward earnings, slightly below the industry’s ~17× multiple but above its own 5‑year average (~14×), and still assigns the stock a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) despite its strong momentum. [26]
TickerNerd aggregates 41 Wall Street analysts and arrives at a median 12‑month price target of $318, with the same 14 Buy / 15 Hold / 3 Sell split and a wide range from $180 to $400. [27]
Consensus price targets vs current price
Different sources line up surprisingly closely on price:
- StockAnalysis: 13 covering analysts, average target $313.31, range $272–381, consensus rating “Hold”, implying about 7% downside over the next year. [28]
- Benzinga: 31 analysts, average target $324.50, high $405, low $200; consensus rating “Hold”. [29]
- QuiverQuant / TickerNerd: median target around $316–318, implying high‑single‑digit downside from recent highs near $345. [30]
Against a current price in the upper‑$330s, these targets suggest that Wall Street, as of today, largely views Amgen as fairly valued to slightly overvalued on a 12‑month horizon, even after factoring in pipeline upside.
Technical and sentiment picture: strong uptrend, but richer risk/reward
From a purely technical standpoint, Amgen still looks healthy:
- StockInvest.us’ AI‑based technical analysis lists AMGN as a “Strong Buy candidate”, noting that the shares have risen about 18–19% since a late‑October pivot low, are trading above both short‑ and long‑term moving averages, and remain in a positive trend, albeit with medium risk. [31]
- The same analysis sees support around $320 and then $298, with a recommended stop loss near $332 and a possible short‑term swing range of roughly ±2% per day. [32]
Zacks and other momentum‑focused services also flag Amgen as a strong momentum stock, citing high Style Scores and sustained outperformance vs the S&P 500. [33]
On the other hand, short‑interest and insider activity send a more cautious signal:
- Benzinga’s short‑interest update shows short interest up 16.8% since the prior report, to 2.5% of float – still below peers, but moving in a more bearish direction. [34]
- MarketBeat notes that corporate insiders have sold about 10,900 shares (~$3.7 million) over the past 90 days, including sizable sales by EVP Murdo Gordon and SVP Rachna Khosla near recent highs. [35]
Net‑net, technicals say uptrend intact, but flows and positioning suggest some investors are locking in gains and hedging downside after a big move.
Institutional and hedge fund positioning
Several new filings today underscore how important Amgen is to large funds:
- Round Hill Asset Management slightly trimmed its stake in Q2 but still holds over 42,000 shares, worth around $11.8 million, making Amgen its second‑largest holding (about 8% of its portfolio). [36]
- Icon Advisers cut its position by 43.8%, selling 3,500 shares and ending the quarter with about 4,500 shares. [37]
- Distillate Capital Partners disclosed a new position worth approximately $25 million, signalling fresh institutional interest. [38]
QuiverQuant’s institutional‑holdings data show over 1,200 institutions adding shares vs ~1,400 reducing in the most recent quarter, with big buys from UBS Asset Management, Capital World Investors and others, but also large reductions from certain funds. [39]
So far, the message is not “stampede for the exits,” but rather normal profit‑taking and portfolio rebalancing after a strong run.
Long‑term forecasts: what analysts see for 2026–2030
Street‑level 12–24 month view
Combining the major forecast sources:
- Revenue growth is expected to slow sharply from high‑single‑digit/low‑double‑digit this year to low‑single‑digit in 2026, as LOE and pricing pressure offset growth from Repatha, biosimilars, Imdelltra and Horizon assets. [40]
- EPS growth is modeled in the low‑single‑digit range after the 2025 step‑change, reflecting higher R&D spend (MariTide, Imdelltra expansion) and ongoing price pressure. [41]
- Across data providers, the consensus rating hovers between “Hold” and “Moderate Buy”, with targets typically clustering in the low‑$300s.
Benzinga’s and CoinCodex’s long‑range projections
Benzinga’s deep‑dive on Amgen’s price trajectory, which incorporates algorithmic CoinCodex projections, sketches out a much more optimistic long‑term path (these are purely model‑driven, not traditional analyst targets): [42]
- Average 2025 projection: ~$373 (bull case ~$391, bear ~$345).
- Average 2026 projection: ~$424 (bull ~$502, bear ~$374).
- Average 2030 projection: ~$693 (bull ~$787, bear ~$632).
Those numbers imply that if Amgen can keep launching new biologics and manage LOE headwinds, algorithms see room for significant compounding over the rest of the decade.
It’s crucial to remember these aren’t guarantees – they’re based on historical volatility and trend extrapolation, not a detailed fundamental view of MariTide, Imdelltra, Repatha, or health‑policy changes.
Key risks investors are watching
Today’s research and commentary repeatedly flag the same core risks:
- Patent expiries & pricing pressure
- Prolia/Xgeva LOE and upcoming price negotiations on Enbrel and Otezla under Medicare’s drug‑pricing framework could pressure revenue and margins. [43]
- Obesity competition
- MariTide’s Phase 2 results look incrementally positive but not clearly superior to Lilly or Novo’s GLP‑1 portfolio, and dosing complexity may blunt its convenience edge. [44]
- Valuation vs growth
- With the stock near its 52‑week high and trading at a premium to its historical P/E, several analyses argue that much of the near‑term good news is already priced in. [45]
- Regulatory and policy shifts
- Recent drug‑pricing agreements between big pharma companies and the U.S. administration signal a more activist pricing environment, which could both help (via tariff relief) and hurt (via price caps) large pharma names like Amgen over time. [46]
So… is Amgen stock a buy, sell, or hold now?
Nothing here is personal investment advice, but we can summarize how the current research landscape frames the decision.
The bullish case
- Quality franchise: 14+ products annualizing over $1 billion in sales, diversified across oncology, cardiovascular, immunology and rare diseases. [47]
- Strong execution: Q3 showed double‑digit revenue growth, a solid earnings beat and higher guidance. [48]
- Pipeline optionality: MariTide and Imdelltra offer meaningful upside if later‑stage data and label expansions go well. [49]
- Shareholder returns: A ~2.8% dividend yield plus buybacks, funded by >$11 billion in annual free cash flow, make Amgen attractive to income‑oriented investors. [50]
The cautious / bearish case
- Limited near‑term upside vs Street targets: Most 12‑month price targets sit below the current quote, implying a potential mid‑single‑digit downside in the base case. [51]
- Growth deceleration: Consensus sees growth slowing sharply after 2025, making it harder to justify a premium multiple without blockbuster‑level wins from MariTide or Imdelltra. [52]
- Rising short interest and insider selling: Short interest is climbing, and insiders have been net sellers into strength, which can signal expectations for consolidation or volatility ahead. [53]
How many analysts would say “buy” today?
If you aggregate today’s datapoints:
- Roughly one‑third of analysts rate Amgen a Buy, about half say Hold, and a minority recommend Sell or Underperform. [54]
That mix, paired with valuation, suggests that Amgen is widely seen as a high‑quality, cash‑rich blue chip best suited for patient, income‑oriented investors, rather than a high‑beta growth play at current prices.
What to watch next
For anyone tracking AMGN over the next 6–12 months, the key catalysts are:
- Further MariTide updates from ongoing mid‑stage and Phase 3 programs.
- Adoption of Repatha after the new cardiovascular outcomes data. [55]
- Imdelltra label expansions and uptake in earlier‑line small‑cell lung cancer. [56]
- Policy moves around drug pricing and tariffs, which now explicitly affect pharma strategy. [57]
- Next earnings release (currently expected February 3, 2026) and any update to 2026 guidance. [58]
If you’re considering Amgen stock, it’s wise to match these moving pieces against your own time horizon, risk tolerance, and income needs, and, ideally, to discuss them with a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.quiverquant.com, 6. www.benzinga.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov, 20. www.biopharmadive.com, 21. www.biopharmadive.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.biopharmadive.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. tickernerd.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.benzinga.com, 30. www.quiverquant.com, 31. stockinvest.us, 32. stockinvest.us, 33. tickernerd.com, 34. www.benzinga.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.quiverquant.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. stockanalysis.com, 42. www.benzinga.com, 43. www.tradingview.com, 44. www.biopharmadive.com, 45. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 46. www.tradingview.com, 47. www.tradingview.com, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.marketbeat.com, 51. stockanalysis.com, 52. stockanalysis.com, 53. www.benzinga.com, 54. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 55. www.reuters.com, 56. www.reuters.com, 57. www.tradingview.com, 58. stockinvest.us
