Sydney, January 26, 2026, 17:19 AEDT — Market closed
- Ampol shares closed down on Friday and will resume trading Tuesday following the Australia Day holiday
- The Lytton refinery margin will get a quarterly update on Wednesday, just before full-year results drop next month
- Oil prices held steady following last week’s rally, as the EG Australia deal faces a more extensive competition review
Ampol Ltd ALD.AX kicks off the week with investors focused on a scheduled update to its Lytton refinery margin, set for Wednesday after the Australian market reopens. The stock last traded at A$30.30 on Jan. 23, down 1.0%.
The margin print is crucial—it offers one of the fastest insights into how the Brisbane refinery is performing and can quickly shift earnings forecasts. Plus, it arrives just weeks ahead of Ampol’s full-year results, tightening the spotlight on dividend choices.
Deal risk remains in the background. The competition regulator has escalated Ampol’s planned acquisition of EG Australia to a more intensive review, setting new key dates to monitor in the process.
The ASX was closed Monday for the Australia Day public holiday. Normal trading will restart Tuesday, Jan. 27.
Ampol closed Friday at A$30.30, slipping 31 cents from the previous session. The stock fluctuated between A$30.24 and A$30.79 during the day.
Ampol’s financial calendar shows a 4Q 2025 Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM) update set for Jan. 28, with full-year results due Feb. 23. The company also intends to announce a dividend on that date.
LRM serves as Ampol’s stand-in measure for refinery profitability, calculated per barrel. This number can swing sharply due to shifts in regional product spreads, shipping expenses, and unexpected outages.
Oil prices edged little changed in Asia Monday after climbing over 2% the day before, with Brent hovering around $65.81 a barrel and U.S. crude close to $61.01. “Oil prices are being tickled this week,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, citing disruption risks and geopolitical tensions amid a surplus expected in 2026. Reuters
Last week, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission flagged 115 EG sites where the proposed deal could significantly reduce competition. Ampol’s plan to sell off 19 sites fell short of easing those worries. “The acquisition would combine two major fuel retailers in Australia,” said ACCC Commissioner Dr Philip Williams. The regulator is accepting submissions until Feb. 4 and pointed out that a Phase 2 review may last up to 90 business days. ACCC
Ampol struck a deal in August to acquire EG Australia for $1.1 billion, bringing in about 500 sites across the country. The company expects to wrap up the purchase by mid-2026, pending regulatory approvals. CEO Matt Halliday remarked then, “The proposed EG Australia acquisition makes sense for Ampol.” Ampol
However, upcoming catalysts pose risks on both ends. A weaker margin figure would weigh on short-term earnings forecasts, while a stricter ACCC approach might force additional divestments, delay the timeline, or potentially trigger both outcomes.
Wednesday’s LRM update will grab investors’ attention before the Feb. 4 submission deadline in the ACCC process. Ampol’s full-year results on Feb. 23 will follow closely behind.
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