Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) stock is hovering just below record highs after a powerful string of catalysts that started on November 21, 2025. Since flagging its appearance at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference and then delivering a beat-and-raise fiscal Q4 2025 report, the analog chip leader has attracted fresh attention from both Wall Street and quant screens.
As of the close on December 11, 2025, ADI trades around $280.50, less than 1% below its recent 52‑week high of $283.24 and far above its 52‑week low of $158.65. [1]
Below is a deep dive into all the key news, earnings, analyst calls and forecasts since November 21, 2025 that are shaping the Analog Devices stock story.
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
1. Timeline: Key ADI Stock Catalysts Since November 21, 2025
November 21, 2025 – UBS Global Technology Conference Announcement
On November 21, Analog Devices announced that its Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Richard Puccio, would speak at the UBS Global Technology Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona, on December 2, 2025. [2]
The presentation was framed as a discussion of business trends and strategy, signaling that management felt confident enough in its medium‑term outlook to appear at a high‑profile investor event just days before year‑end earnings.
November 25, 2025 – Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Earnings Beat
Four days later, ADI reported strong fourth‑quarter and full‑year fiscal 2025 results:
- Q4 FY25 revenue: $3.08 billion, with growth across all end markets, led by industrial and communications. [3]
- FY25 revenue: $11.0 billion, up about 17% vs. fiscal 2024. [4]
- Q4 EPS: Adjusted EPS of $2.26, ahead of analyst expectations of roughly $2.22. [5]
- Q4 growth: Revenue up about 26% year‑over‑year and ~7% sequentially, according to earnings summaries. [6]
On the call and in the release, management highlighted that:
- Industrial revenue – nearly half the business – climbed roughly 34% year‑over‑year to about $1.43 billion, helped by factory automation, defense, digital healthcare and energy infrastructure. [7]
- Communications revenue reached roughly $390 million, above expectations, driven by wireless infrastructure and optical solutions. [8]
The company also underscored its cash‑generative model:
- Operating cash flow: ~$4.8 billion in FY25
- Free cash flow: ~$4.3 billion (about 39% of revenue)
- Capital returns: ADI returned about 96% of free cash flow to shareholders in FY25, including ~$2.2 billion in buybacks and ~$1.9 billion in dividends. [9]
Shares jumped nearly 4% after the report as investors digested the beat-and-raise quarter and upbeat guidance into fiscal 2026. [10]
Fiscal Q1 2026 Outlook: Still Beating the Street
For Q1 FY26, management guided to: [11]
- Revenue: About $3.1 billion ± $100 million, above the roughly $2.96 billion consensus at the time
- Reported operating margin: ~31% (±130 bps)
- Adjusted operating margin: ~43.5% (±100 bps)
- Reported EPS: ~$1.60 (±$0.10)
- Adjusted EPS: ~$2.29 (±$0.10), above the ~$2.16 consensus estimate
This guidance reinforced the view that ADI is seeing a cyclical recovery in demand while benefiting from secular drivers like AI, data‑center power, advanced test equipment, and automotive content.
November 26, 2025 – Analyst Reactions and Target Hikes
The day after earnings, multiple firms raised price targets:
- Wells Fargo maintained an “Equal‑Weight” rating but lifted its ADI target from $250 to $265, citing strong execution and ongoing analyst interest across 2025. [12]
- Analyst compilations referenced prior hikes such as: Cantor Fitzgerald moving from $270 to $300, KeyBanc from $300 to $310, and Evercore ISI from $280 to $303 earlier in the year. [13]
According to MarketBeat, 33 Wall Street analysts now rate Analog Devices a “Moderate Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target around $283–284 and a range from roughly $240 to $320. [14]
December 2, 2025 – UBS Global Technology & AI Conference
On December 2, CFO Richard Puccio appeared at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference, reinforcing themes from earnings: a cyclical upturn layered on top of secular growth in autos, AI, aerospace & defense, and data center. [15]
Conference and call transcripts highlight:
- Data center revenue grew around 50% in FY25 to roughly a $1 billion run rate, while ATE (test equipment) grew about 40% to an ~$800 million run rate, both expected to continue double‑digit growth. [16]
- Aerospace & defense now generates well over $1 billion in annualized revenue, more than 10% of total sales, with potential to more than double by decade‑end. [17]
- Management reiterated that Q2 is usually the seasonally strongest quarter, typically up mid‑single digits sequentially, but also stressed that visibility beyond “quarter plus one” remains limited due to short lead times. [18]
November–December 2025 – Momentum and Technical Breakouts
Technical services tracking ADI’s price behavior have turned increasingly positive:
- Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) reports ADI’s SmartSelect Composite Rating has risen to 96, meaning it is outperforming 96% of all stocks on a blend of earnings and technical factors. [19]
- ADI’s EPS Rating sits near 89, reflecting strong earnings growth, and IBD notes revenue growth of around 26% year‑over‑year in the latest quarter, the sixth straight quarter of acceleration. [20]
- The stock broke out of a flat base with a buy point around $258.13 and is now more than 5% above that level, indicating the original technical “buy zone” has passed and new entries may require either a tight consolidation or a pullback. [21]
On December 5, MarketWatch noted ADI hitting a new 52‑week high around $281–$283, and on December 10, the stock rose 1.93% to $281.57, outperforming peers and trading well above its 50‑day average volume, a sign of heightened investor interest. [22]
AI Angle: CodeFusion Studio™ 2.0 Launch (Nov 3, 2025)
Just ahead of this news cycle, Analog Devices launched CodeFusion Studio 2.0, a major upgrade to its open‑source embedded development platform, emphasizing end‑to‑end AI workflows at the edge. [23]
Key features include:
- “Bring‑your‑own‑model” AI capability, model compatibility checks and performance profiling
- A Zephyr‑based framework for profiling AI/ML workloads across ADI processors and microcontrollers
- Unified configuration and integrated debugging designed to simplify development on heterogeneous systems [24]
This product release is directly aligned with the AI‑and‑autos narrative now underpinning much of the bullish ADI stock thesis.
2. By the Numbers: ADI’s Q4 2025 and Full-Year Performance
Putting the recent quarter into one snapshot:
Revenue and Earnings
- Q4 2025 revenue: $3.08 billion, up ~26% vs. Q4 2024 and ~7% sequentially, beating consensus estimates of roughly $3.01 billion. [25]
- Q4 adjusted EPS: $2.26 vs. ~ $2.22 expected. [26]
- FY25 revenue: $11.0 billion, up ~17% year‑over‑year. [27]
- FY25 EPS: Earnings per share rose about 22% to roughly $7.79 according to earnings call summaries. [28]
Margins are a critical part of the ADI story:
- FY25 gross margin was around 69–70%, up more than 100 basis points year‑over‑year as mix shifted back toward higher‑value industrial and communications solutions. [29]
- Management has signaled that near‑term gross margin will remain roughly flat in Q1, with mix (especially industrial vs. auto and consumer) a key swing factor, but still expects full‑year margins in the low‑70% range over the medium term. [30]
Segment and End-Market Highlights
From the earnings call and follow‑up analysis: [31]
- Industrial (~50% of revenue):
- Q4 revenue ~$1.43 billion, up ~34% year‑over‑year
- Growth driven by factory automation, energy infrastructure, defense, digital healthcare and other high‑reliability applications
- Communications:
- Q4 revenue ~$390 million, above Street estimates, supported by wireless infrastructure, optical links and power for network equipment
- Data Center & ATE:
- Data center revenue grew ~50% in FY25 to roughly a $1B run rate
- ATE (test) revenue grew ~40% to an $800M run rate
- Both are expected to grow at double‑digit rates, powered by AI accelerators, high‑speed optics, power delivery and memory transitions like HBM4
- Automotive:
- Remains a strategic growth pillar with rising semiconductor content per vehicle, though near‑term trends show some lumpiness, including guidance for a mid‑single‑digit decline into Q1 before resuming growth. [32]
- Aerospace & Defense:
- Now over $1B in annual revenue and growing at double‑digit rates
- Management believes the business could more than double by decade‑end, fueled by RF/microwave, high‑performance converters and power solutions. [33]
Cash Flow and Capital Returns
ADI continues to behave like a cash‑flow machine:
- FY25 operating cash flow: ~$4.8B
- Free cash flow: ~$4.3B (about 39% of revenue)
- Shareholder returns: ~96% of free cash flow returned via buybacks and dividends. [34]
The board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.99 per share, payable on December 22, 2025 to shareholders of record as of December 8. At roughly $280 per share, that implies a forward dividend yield of about 1.4%. [35]
3. Wall Street View: Ratings, Targets and Growth Forecasts
Consensus Ratings and Price Targets
Multiple data providers paint a broadly constructive picture:
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 18 covering analysts rate ADI a “Buy”, with an average price target around $280.17 (range $240–$320), essentially in line with the current share price. [36]
- MarketBeat:
- 33 analysts give ADI a “Moderate Buy” consensus
- Average 12‑month price target ~$283–284, with the same $240–$320 range and a small single‑digit upside from recent levels. [37]
- GuruFocus:
- Compiles 32 analyst targets with an average around $275 and a wider range ($155–$330), implying that while most forecasts cluster modestly above the current price, there are both cautious and aggressive outliers. [38]
Recent individual target moves include: [39]
- UBS: $280 → $320 with a Strong Buy rating
- JPMorgan: $310 → $320 (Buy)
- Citic Securities: $280 → $295 (Add) [40]
- Truist: $249 → $258 (Hold)
- Baird: $250 → $275 (Buy)
- Wells Fargo: $250 → $265 (Equal‑Weight)
Street Growth Models
Consensus models aggregated by StockAnalysis point to continued growth: [41]
- FY26 revenue: ~$13.0B, up ~18% from FY25
- FY27 revenue: ~$14.1B, up ~9% from FY26
- FY26 EPS: ~$9.87 (more than doubling vs. depressed prior-year GAAP levels)
- FY27 EPS: ~$11.25, up ~14% from FY26
These numbers suggest Wall Street is modeling:
- A cyclical snapback from the 2024 downcycle
- Sustained double‑digit EPS growth as operating leverage, higher‑margin AI/industrial content and Maxim revenue synergies flow through the P&L [42]
The implied forward P/E on these forecasts is in the high‑20s range, placing ADI at a premium to many diversified semiconductor peers but broadly in line with other high‑quality analog and mixed‑signal franchises. [43]
Fair Value and Valuation Debates
Valuation is where opinions start to diverge:
- Simply Wall St’s AI‑driven “AnalystConsensusTarget” narrative lifted its fair‑value estimate slightly to about $282.03, just a hair above the recent share price, effectively calling the stock near fair value. [44]
- Their write‑up emphasizes autos and AI as dual growth engines and notes that some analysts worry a lot of the cyclical recovery is already priced in, making further upside more dependent on ADI exceeding 2026 expectations rather than simply meeting them. [45]
- GuruFocus’s proprietary GF Value model, by contrast, suggests ADI may be somewhat overvalued relative to long‑term historical multiples and projected fundamentals, reinforcing the idea that the stock is no longer “cheap” after its big run. [46]
4. Technical Picture: Momentum, Ratings and Buy Zones
From a chart‑reading perspective (even without showing the chart):
- ADI has broken out from a flat base with a pivot around $258.13, and is now trading more than 5% above that level, placing it outside the classical buy zone for breakout traders. [47]
- IBD’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating has climbed above 80 (recently around 82), which historically correlates with stocks capable of big runs, and the Composite Rating of 96 indicates ADI is among the top few percent of stocks on a combined fundamental/technical basis. [48]
- ADI now sits just below its 52‑week high of $283.24, with multiple MarketWatch notes highlighting days where it outperformed peers like Texas Instruments and Broadcom on above‑average volume – a hallmark of institutional accumulation. [49]
For technically oriented investors, this combo – strong RS/Composite scores, a recent breakout, and heavy volume near highs – is typically bullish, but it also means:
- Risk of near‑term pullbacks is higher if sentiment cools or if the broader market stumbles.
- Many classical growth frameworks would prefer new entries on pullbacks to key moving averages or on a tight consolidation rather than chasing extended levels. [50]
5. Strategic Drivers: Why Bulls Like ADI Here
Putting together management commentary and Street analysis, the bull case revolves around a few themes:
5.1 AI and Data Center Power/Connectivity
Analog Devices sits in several critical parts of the AI infrastructure stack:
- High‑speed converters and signal conditioning for 800G/1.6T optical interfaces
- Power delivery and protection for AI accelerators and high‑bandwidth memory
- Test and measurement (ATE) platforms needed to validate advanced chips [51]
The Q4/FY25 results show data center revenue growing ~50%, and test revenue about 40%, both at substantial run rates. Analysts generally expect these segments to maintain double‑digit growth into 2026 and beyond as AI capex cycles play out. [52]
5.2 Autos, Industrial and Aerospace & Defense – The “ADO” Stack
Management and analysts increasingly talk about ADI’s “ADO” exposure – Automotive, Defense, and Other industrial – as a structural advantage:
- Automotive: ADI benefits from rising semiconductor content in EVs, ADAS, and zonal architectures, even if unit volumes wobble.
- Industrial: From factory automation to energy infrastructure, ADI’s catalog of high‑reliability components sits in long design cycles with sticky customers.
- Aerospace & Defense: This business has remained strong even during downturns and offers high ASPs and long lifecycles. [53]
Several Wall Street notes cited by Simply Wall St and GuruFocus emphasize this balanced cyclical exposure plus secular drivers as a reason ADI can support a premium valuation. [54]
5.3 Maxim Integration and Shareholder Returns
Analysts also continue to highlight the Maxim Integrated acquisition as a key earnings lever:
- Management indicates Maxim revenue synergies have ramped from “tens of millions” in 2024 to hundreds of millions in 2025, with a target of roughly $1 billion in synergies by 2027, perhaps sooner. [55]
- Combined with high‑70s gross margins in some segments and disciplined R&D, that synergy stream supports strong free cash flow, which ADI has been returning to shareholders via aggressive buybacks and dividends. [56]
This blend of structural growth + M&A synergies + capital return is a big reason ADI shows up on many “compounder” and “quality growth” screens.
6. Risks, Caveats and Bearish Talking Points
Even the bullish research notes flag several risks and points of caution:
- Macro and Tariff Uncertainty
- Reuters and the company itself stress that while demand has recovered, tariffs and broader macro uncertainty could distort order patterns or pressure margins if costs rise faster than pricing. [57]
- Cyclical Exposure and Limited Visibility
- Management repeatedly notes that lead times are mostly under 13 weeks, which limits visibility beyond one or two quarters and could make earnings more volatile if customers suddenly tighten or loosen spending. [58]
- Industrial and Auto Volatility
- Q&A from the earnings call reveals some tension between strong recent industrial growth and questions about how long it can run above end‑market consumption.
- Automotive guidance, including expectations for a mid‑single‑digit decline in Q1, underscores that even strategic segments can have choppy short‑term trajectories. [59]
- Margin Debate
- Analysts have pressed management on why gross margins may remain near ~70% instead of stepping higher as utilization improves. CFO commentary suggests mix (industrial vs. auto/consumer) and investment in growth areas will keep margins within, but not necessarily above, the current band. [60]
- Valuation Risk
- With ADI trading near all‑time highs and around high‑20s forward P/E, some models (such as GuruFocus’s GF Value) indicate the shares may be priced above their “fair value” unless growth and margins surpass current forecasts. [61]
None of these are unusual for a high‑quality, cyclical growth name, but they matter more when the stock is priced for perfection near its 52‑week high than when it was trading in the $150s–$200s.
7. So… Is Analog Devices (ADI) Stock a Buy Now?
Whether ADI is a buy, hold or trim depends heavily on individual risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio context, but the current picture looks roughly like this:
What’s going right:
- Earnings and revenue are growing solidly with broad‑based strength across industrial, data center, ATE and aerospace & defense. [62]
- Cash flow and shareholder returns are robust, with nearly all free cash flow pushed back to investors. [63]
- Wall Street remains broadly bullish, with many targets nudging higher after Q4 and a “Moderate Buy” / “Buy” consensus. [64]
- Technical indicators – RS and Composite ratings, volume patterns and 52‑week highs – point to strong momentum and institutional buying. [65]
What gives bulls (and cautious investors) pause:
- The stock is no longer cheap; most fair‑value models and price targets cluster just a few percentage points above the current price. [66]
- Macro uncertainty, tariffs and short lead times mean earnings visibility is limited, and any disappointment on industrial or auto demand could hit a richly valued stock harder. [67]
- Near‑term gross margin upside looks constrained, with mix and investment requirements likely capping margins around the low‑70s rather than driving a big step higher. [68]
For long‑term investors who:
- Believe in multi‑year AI and industrial automation tailwinds
- Want exposure to high‑margin analog/edge‑AI infrastructure
- Can tolerate normal semiconductor cyclicality
…ADI continues to look like a high‑quality core holding, though today’s price implies more of a steady compounder than a deep‑value opportunity.
For shorter‑term or more valuation‑sensitive traders, ADI may be in the “watch list” bucket:
- Strong story, strong chart – but perhaps better bought on pullbacks toward prior support levels or after a sideways consolidation that digests the post‑earnings run, rather than chased at fresh highs.
Again, none of this is personal advice, just a synthesis of the current news, forecasts and analysis around Analog Devices stock since November 21, 2025.
References
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