Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is closing out 2025 trading near record highs after a big post‑earnings rally, a wave of fresh analyst upgrades, and a busy day of new institutional and insider disclosures on December 1. At the same time, several valuation models now flag the stock as “expensive,” and short‑term technical gauges are flashing overbought signals.
Here’s a detailed, news‑driven look at ADI stock as of December 1, 2025, drawing on today’s coverage, the latest forecasts, and recent analysis.
ADI stock price today: near all‑time highs
At the December 1, 2025 close, Analog Devices shares finished at $266.51, up $1.17 (+0.44%) on the day. After‑hours trading saw a minor dip to about $266.23. [1]
Key snapshot metrics today:
- Market cap: ~$130.5 billion
- Trailing P/E: ~58.5
- Forward P/E: ~27.0
- Dividend: $3.96 per year (quarterly $0.99), ~1.5% yield
- Ex‑dividend date: December 8, 2025
- 52‑week range:$158.65 – $268.47, with today’s intraday high taking the stock close to its 52‑week peak
- Volume: ~7.0 million shares, in line with typical liquidity [2]
Performance has accelerated into year‑end. Simply Wall St notes that after strong Q4 results, ADI is up roughly 13% over the last month, about 26% year‑to‑date, with a ~24% one‑year total return and ~65% total return over three years. [3]
However, relative to the wider tech sector, ADI has lagged somewhat. A Barchart analysis from November 28 highlighted that:
- Over the past three months, ADI’s gain has been only marginal, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) has risen about 7.9%.
- Over the last 12 months, ADI is up about 17.7%, versus roughly 20.9% for XLK; over six months, ADI has gained ~22.5% vs ~25.1% for XLK. [4]
In other words, ADI is strong in absolute terms and now near its highs, but not the top performer in its peer group.
Earnings momentum: Q4 2025 beat and bullish 2026 guidance
The current rally is anchored in a very strong Q4 and fiscal 2025.
According to Analog Devices’ November 25 earnings release and supporting data: [5]
- Q4 FY25 revenue:$3.08 billion, up about 26% year‑over‑year, beating Wall Street expectations of around $3.01–$3.02 billion. [6]
- Adjusted EPS:$2.26, up ~35% YoY and slightly ahead of the ~$2.22 consensus. [7]
- Net income: ~$788 million, with net margin of roughly 25.6% in the quarter. [8]
- Full‑year FY25 revenue:$11.0 billion, up 17% versus 2024. [9]
- Cash generation: FY25 operating cash flow $4.8 billion (~44% of revenue) and free cash flow $4.3 billion (~39% of revenue). [10]
Management has aggressively returned cash to shareholders:
- ADI repurchased about $2.2 billion of stock and paid $1.9 billion in dividends in FY25 – roughly 96% of free cash flow. [11]
- The board declared a $0.99 quarterly dividend payable December 22, 2025 to shareholders of record on December 8, 2025. [12]
2026 outlook: guidance above expectations
For Q1 FY26, Analog Devices is guiding to: [13]
- Revenue: about $3.1 billion ± $100 million
- Reported operating margin: ~31% (±130 bps)
- Adjusted operating margin: ~43.5% (±100 bps)
- Reported EPS:$1.60 ± $0.10
- Adjusted EPS:$2.29 ± $0.10
A Reuters summary framed this guidance as above Street estimates, reflecting robust demand despite ongoing tariff and macro uncertainty. [14]
Segment commentary in recent coverage has emphasized that:
- Industrial (about 46% of revenue) grew ~34% YoY in Q4 to around $1.43 billion.
- Communications (about 13% of revenue) grew ~37% YoY to roughly $390 million. [15]
These numbers support the bullish narrative that ADI is benefiting from a cyclical upswing in industrial and communications capex, layered on top of secular drivers like automation, robotics and 5G/AI infrastructure.
December 1, 2025 news recap: valuations, quality scores and ownership shifts
Valuation views from Simply Wall St and GuruFocus
A fresh Simply Wall St article published today notes that ADI’s strong quarter has pushed the stock close to what its “fair value” narrative model suggests is intrinsic value – around $280 per share, implying roughly 5–6% upside from the prior close near $265. [16]
However, the same coverage points out that when they run a discounted cash flow (DCF)‑style model, ADI actually screens as slightly overvalued, underscoring how sensitive valuation is to assumptions about growth, margins and discount rates. [17]
GuruFocus, in a piece published today titled “Why Investors Are Eyeing Analog Devices Inc (ADI)”, highlights ADI’s exceptional GF Score of 94/100, which their back‑tests associate with a high probability of long‑term outperformance. Key quality metrics they note include: [18]
- Operating margin: ~27.3%
- Altman Z‑Score: ~6.3, signaling low financial distress risk
- Interest coverage: ~9.5x, well above the threshold often cited as conservative
- Debt‑to‑revenue: about 0.79, indicating a manageable leverage profile
At the same time, a separate GuruFocus alert on analyst targets points out that their proprietary “GF Value” estimate for ADI is $207.75, versus a recent market price around $259, implying ~20% downside to what they consider fair value. [19]
So, as of today:
- Quality signals (profitability, balance sheet strength, predictability) are very strong.
- Value signals are mixed: Simply Wall St’s narrative valuation sees modest upside, while GuruFocus’s GF Value framework suggests ADI trades at a premium.
Institutional flows and insider intentions
Two MarketBeat 13F‑based notes dated December 1 detail small but notable institutional trims in prior quarters: [20]
- BLI Banque de Luxembourg Investments cut its ADI stake by 59.1% in Q2, to 7,833 shares (worth about $1.86 million at the time of the filing).
- Boston Family Office LLC reduced its holdings by 4.7% in Q2, to 21,109 shares (roughly $5.0 million).
Both articles emphasize that institutional and hedge‑fund investors collectively own about 86.8% of ADI shares, echoing a mid‑November Yahoo/Simply Wall St piece that put institutional ownership at around 89%. [21]
High institutional ownership can cut both ways: it signals professional confidence in the story, but it can also amplify volatility during risk‑off phases if big funds rebalance.
On the insider front, a Reuters note carried on TradingView today shows that Vice President Vivek Jain filed a Form 144 indicating an intention to sell 5,914 shares of ADI through Fidelity Brokerage Services. [22] Form 144s signal planned sales of restricted stock rather than completed transactions, and the proposed sale is tiny relative to ADI’s ~489.6 million shares outstanding, but it adds to a pattern of modest insider selling reported in recent weeks. [23]
Wall Street’s verdict: “Moderate/Outperform” with mid‑single‑digit upside
As of December 1, multiple aggregators show a broadly bullish but not euphoric sell‑side stance on ADI:
- StockAnalysis reports that 22 analysts rate ADI a “Buy”, with a 12‑month average price target of $277, about 3.9% above the latest price. [24]
- GuruFocus’ Wells Fargo recap cites 32 analysts with an average target of $275.20, high of $330 and low of $155, implying about 6% upside from a reference price of $259.44 and an average recommendation of “Outperform” (2.0 on a 1–5 scale). [25]
- A Barchart article pegs the mean Street target at $278, about 7.8% above current levels, with a Street‑high target of $310 (~20% upside) and a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” based on 33 analysts. [26]
Recent target changes clustered around the Q4 release include: [27]
- JPMorgan: raised target from $310 to $320, rating “Overweight” (implying roughly low‑20s% upside when announced).
- CFRA: raised target from $265 to $280, maintaining a “Buy” rating; its model assumes FY26 EPS of $9.58 and FY27 EPS of $11.10, valuing the stock at 25× an estimated 2027 EPS of $11.20.
- Wells Fargo: lifted its target from $250 to $265, with an “Equal Weight” stance.
- Cantor Fitzgerald, BNP Paribas, KeyBanc, Evercore, Benchmark, Bank of America and others now cluster in the roughly $280–$310 range with “Outperform”/“Buy” or similar ratings.
The important nuance: Wall Street mostly likes ADI, but with the stock already near all‑time highs, the average 12‑month upside implied by fundamental analysts is modest rather than explosive.
Algorithmic & long‑term price forecasts: from measured to extreme
Alongside traditional analyst targets, several platforms publish algorithmic or statistical forecasts for ADI. These aren’t the same as fundamental research, but they influence sentiment and SEO search interest around “ADI stock forecast”:
- Benzinga, summarizing CoinCodex models, shows an average forecast of about $260.9 for 2025, $233.1 for 2026, and $267.6 for 2027, with further out‑year averages rising to roughly $314 in 2028 and $341 around 2030. [28]
- StockScan projects an average ADI price of about $284.6 in 2027 (roughly 7% above today’s price) and $295.7 in 2028 (~11% above today), with monthly paths that include both pullbacks and rallies. [29]
- Hexn publishes much more aggressive figures, with algorithmic “crypto‑style” models that envision a 2029 average price of around $885 and 2030 near $1,171 – roughly 3–4× the current level. [30]
These projections are highly model‑dependent, and none are guarantees. They do, however, reinforce the broad narrative: near‑term expectations are for moderate gains at best, while long‑term, model‑driven scenarios can range from flat to extremely bullish depending on assumptions.
Technical and sentiment picture: strong momentum but overbought
A technical dashboard from Intellectia.ai as of late November shows a mixed but revealing setup: [31]
Bullish signals:
- Price trading above short‑term moving averages, with the 5‑day SMA above the 20‑day SMA.
- MACD > 0, positive 10‑day momentum, and a strongly positive Awesome Oscillator – all consistent with an ongoing uptrend.
Bearish/overbought signals:
- RSI (14‑day) above 70,
- Stochastic oscillator and Stochastic RSI both in overbought territory,
- CCI above +100, and
- Williams %R above –20, plus an elevated “Ultimate Oscillator.”
Intellectia also flags a short‑sale ratio of about 26% on November 28 (short sales as a share of daily volume), rising as the stock moved from roughly $257.92 to $265.34 – a sign that some traders are betting on a short‑term pullback even as the price trends higher. [32]
Taken together, the technicals and short‑term sentiment suggest:
- Trend: firmly bullish since the earnings breakout.
- Condition: increasingly overbought, with growing tactical bearish positioning, which can make the stock more sensitive to negative headlines or broader market shakiness.
Strategic story: AI, industrial automation and communications
Beyond the numbers, today’s coverage continues to frame Analog Devices as one of the highest‑quality analog and mixed‑signal chipmakers in the market:
- GuruFocus notes ADI’s “significant market share lead” in converter chips that translate analog signals to digital and back – critical for sensors, RF, power and mixed‑signal applications. More than half of chip sales go to industrial and automotive customers, with additional exposure to wireless infrastructure. [33]
- ADI’s own FY25 release emphasizes its role in “automation and robotics, mobility, energy and data centers, and healthcare,” and highlights a “fast‑growing design pipeline” that management sees as a foundation for “sustained, long‑term value.” [34]
- Recent press releases showcase CodeFusion Studio™ 2.0, an end‑to‑end embedded AI development environment that simplifies bringing machine‑learning models onto ADI hardware, and ADI Power Studio™ for power‑management design – both aimed at making ADI’s chips stickier in AI, edge and power‑sensitive workloads. [35]
A separate Seeking Alpha piece (November 26) characterizes Analog Devices as an “AI infrastructure enabler” and “silent giant,” arguing that its analog, mixed‑signal and power solutions are essential to data centers, robotics and industrial AI systems – even if ADI doesn’t grab headlines like NVIDIA. [36]
In short, secular growth drivers—AI at the edge, industrial automation, EVs, and high‑performance communications—remain central to the bull case.
Key risks highlighted in recent analysis
Any news‑grade stock article should also flag the risks today’s coverage is focusing on:
- Valuation risk
- Macro and policy uncertainty
- ADI’s own guidance cautions that fiscal 2026 will still be shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, including tariffs and trade restrictions that can affect both demand and supply chains. [39]
- Competition and industry cycles
- Analog and mixed‑signal markets remain highly competitive, with Texas Instruments and others responding aggressively to AI and industrial opportunities. [40]
- Semiconductor demand is historically cyclical; a normalization after the current upswing could pressure margins and multiples.
- Short‑term positioning and insider sales
- Elevated short‑sale activity and overbought technical indicators increase the odds of short‑term pullbacks. [41]
- Recent insider sales (CEO, SVP and now VP Vivek Jain’s planned sale) may not be large in dollar terms relative to ADI’s market cap but can reinforce perceptions that insiders are using strength to take profits. [42]
Bottom line: how ADI looks on December 1, 2025
Putting today’s news, forecasts and analyses together, the Analog Devices stock story on December 1, 2025 looks like this:
- Fundamentals: Q4 2025 capped a year of double‑digit revenue and EPS growth, strong margins and excellent free‑cash‑flow conversion. Guidance for early 2026 is above consensus, and secular growth drivers in AI, industrial automation and communications remain intact. [43]
- Quality: Third‑party services rate ADI as a top‑tier quality compounder with robust profitability, balance sheet strength and a long history of dividends and buybacks. [44]
- Valuation: On most fundamental and quant models, ADI now trades close to or above estimated fair value, with mainstream sell‑side price targets implying low‑ to mid‑single‑digit upside over 12 months, even as some long‑term algorithmic models project large gains. [45]
- Technical/sentiment: The stock is in a strong uptrend but looks overbought on many momentum indicators, and short‑term traders are increasingly betting against further near‑term upside. [46]
- Ownership: Institutions control the vast majority of shares, and insider selling has ticked up—but so have buybacks and fundamental upgrades, suggesting a dynamic but not one‑sided sentiment backdrop. [47]
For long‑term investors focused on high‑quality, cash‑generative semiconductor names tied to AI and industrial automation, ADI continues to appear prominently in today’s research and remains widely rated as a Buy/Outperform. For more valuation‑sensitive or tactical traders, the combination of rich multiples, overbought technicals and heavy institutional ownership argues for caution and careful timing.
As always, this article is informational only, not personalized investment advice. Anyone considering Analog Devices stock should weigh these factors against their own time horizon, risk tolerance and portfolio needs.
References
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