Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) heads into Monday’s U.S. stock market open with shares hovering near recent highs after a strong fiscal Q4 report, upbeat guidance, and a steady stream of analyst updates. At the same time, investors are weighing how much of the good news is already priced in—especially with the stock sitting close to its 52‑week peak.
Here’s what to know before the opening bell on 15/12/2025, including the latest headlines, Wall Street forecasts, and the key catalysts that could drive ADI stock next.
ADI stock price check: where shares closed and the Monday setup
Analog Devices shares last closed at $279.32, down 1.44% in the most recent regular session (Friday, Dec. 12). [1]
Despite Friday’s pullback, ADI remained close to its recent high-water mark—about 1.6% below its 52‑week high of $283.81 (set the day before). Trading volume on Friday was also slightly above its 50‑day average, suggesting elevated attention going into the new week. [2]
One important context point for Monday: ADI’s move on Friday occurred during a broad risk-off session (major indices were down), and ADI fell less than some semiconductor peers called out in the same market wrap. [3]
The big driver: ADI’s “strong” fiscal Q4 and FY2025 results
The main reason ADI has been on investors’ radar into mid‑December is still the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 print and outlook (reported Nov. 25).
From ADI’s official release and accompanying earnings materials:
- Q4 FY2025 revenue: about $3.08 billion, up year over year
- FY2025 revenue: about $11.02 billion, up year over year
- FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS:$4.56
- FY2025 non-GAAP diluted EPS:$7.79 [4]
ADI also highlighted profitability and cash generation, reporting FY2025 operating cash flow of about $4.77 billion and free cash flow of about $4.28 billion. [5]
Why that matters for Monday’s trade: for many long-only investors, ADI’s cash conversion and margin profile are as important as near-term revenue swings, because analog semiconductors tend to be cyclical—and durable free cash flow can support dividends and buybacks through downturns.
Guidance: the numbers Wall Street will keep trading against
If you’re watching ADI stock before the open, the single most important forward-looking data point is what management said about the next quarter.
For fiscal Q1 2026, ADI forecast:
- Revenue:$3.1 billion ± $100 million
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS:$2.29 ± $0.10 [6]
Reuters noted that both the revenue and adjusted profit outlook were ahead of analysts’ expectations at the time, even as management acknowledged macro uncertainty (including tariff-related concerns). [7]
This is the balancing act investors are trading now:
- Bull case: cyclical recovery + secular tailwinds (data center/AI, electrification, automation) can keep estimates moving up.
- Caution case: with shares near highs, any sign the recovery is slowing—or that customers are pulling forward orders ahead of cost changes—can pressure the multiple.
End-market demand: industrial strength and a communications rebound
ADI’s business is heavily tied to industrial and infrastructure demand (a plus when spending is strong, a headwind when capex freezes). Reuters described industrial as nearly half of ADI’s revenue and highlighted that industrial segment revenue rose 34% year over year in Q4 to $1.43 billion. [8]
Reuters also called out communications as another area of strength, with Q4 communications revenue of about $389.8 million, above expectations cited in its report. [9]
A separate market profile snapshot published in recent weeks lists ADI’s end-market mix (approximate) as industrial ~44.7%, automotive ~29.8%, consumer ~13%, communications ~12.5%. [10]
Why it matters into Monday: ADI’s biggest upside (and biggest risk) usually comes from industrial ordering trends—because it’s the largest slice of the pie.
AI and data center: smaller revenue share, outsized narrative
A recurring theme in recent analyst notes is that ADI’s “AI story” is less about GPUs and more about the power, conversion, and signal-chain content that surrounds modern compute.
In an earnings call transcript recap, ADI leadership pointed to strong momentum in data center, and the transcript notes referenced data center growth (and ATE growth) as meaningful contributors over the prior year. [11]
That framing matters because it supports a higher valuation narrative: even if industrial cycles wobble, investors may award ADI a premium for exposure to longer-duration infrastructure buildouts tied to AI.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: consensus clusters near current levels, but the range is wide
Going into the Dec. 15 open, “forecast” coverage is broadly positive—but not uniformly aggressive.
Two widely cited compilations show how close the consensus target sits to the current price:
- MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average 12‑month price target around $283.61 (roughly low-single-digit upside from ~$279). [12]
- Stock Analysis shows an average price target around $280.17, with targets ranging from $240 to $320. [13]
In other words: while many analysts are constructive on the business, the median “math” implies ADI is trading close to what many models already consider fair value—unless estimates rise again.
The most market-moving recent target changes
Several named calls in the last few weeks have helped shape sentiment:
- UBS lifted its price target to $320 from $280 and maintained a bullish stance (per aggregated analyst updates). [14]
- Morgan Stanley raised its target to $293 from $288 and reiterated Overweight, citing tailwinds tied to data center/AI and content gains. [15]
- Wolfe Research raised its target to $300 (from $280), arguing ADI’s “balanced growth” drivers are improving and pointing to continued strength in areas linked to AI/data center infrastructure. [16]
Takeaway for Monday: the Street isn’t “calling the top,” but it also isn’t uniformly pounding the table at current prices. The debate is increasingly about how much upside is left without another leg up in forward estimates.
Dividend watch: dates matter this month
ADI declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.99 per share, payable December 22, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 8, 2025. [17]
Practical implication for anyone trading around the Dec. 15 open: the record date has already passed, so buying shares now would generally be aimed at price exposure rather than capturing the upcoming dividend.
Buybacks: ADI’s capital return policy remains a pillar of the bull case
ADI’s capital return strategy is not just a talking point—it’s a key part of the investment thesis. In the fiscal 2025 results release, ADI said it returned roughly $4.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in FY2025 and described returning 96% of FY2025 free cash flow to shareholders. [18]
In its FY2025 Form 10‑K, ADI disclosed that $9.7 billion remained available under its authorized share repurchase program as of November 1, 2025, and it also provided detail on shares repurchased in late FY2025. [19]
Why this matters heading into Monday: in many market regimes, a large, ongoing buyback authorization can act as a stabilizer—especially during pullbacks that aren’t tied to deteriorating fundamentals.
Insider activity: what the latest filings show
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean something bearish—many sales are scheduled, diversified, or related to options. Still, it’s often a headline risk for stocks near highs.
Two items have circulated recently:
- A Refinitiv/TradingView item reports that Chairman Vincent Roche filed to sell 10,000 shares, with the filing noting it was under a prearranged 10b5‑1 plan. [20]
- MarketScreener also highlighted a Form 4-related sale by a senior finance executive (Chief Accounting Officer) tied to a December transaction, based on an SEC filing recap. [21]
For Monday’s session, the market impact usually depends on scale and context. A relatively small planned sale is often treated as noise—unless it coincides with other warning signs (weaker guidance, a sudden estimate reset, or a sharp sector drawdown).
Corporate and operational headlines in the background: manufacturing and partnerships
Not every ADI headline is about quarterly numbers. In late 2025, ADI also announced a strategic collaboration with ASE tied to its Penang operations, stating that definitive agreements were expected in Q4 2025 and the transaction was expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to conditions and approvals. [22]
Investors typically view these kinds of updates through the lens of:
- supply chain resiliency,
- manufacturing flexibility,
- and longer-term cost structure.
These stories generally don’t move the stock day-to-day, but they can influence how investors think about ADI’s ability to defend margins through cycles.
One more headline category: legal news that likely won’t move the stock—but could show up in feeds
A legal brief published in the last couple of days reported that the First Circuit affirmed a trade secrets conviction involving a former Analog Devices employee. [23]
This type of item is usually not considered financially material for ADI’s near-term fundamentals unless it signals broader operational risk or large liabilities. Still, it may appear in news aggregations and can create momentary attention.
What could move ADI stock next after the opening bell?
With earnings and guidance already out, ADI’s next near-term price drivers are likely to be macro + semis sentiment + incremental estimate revisions, rather than a single scheduled company event.
Here are the most important variables to watch on Monday and into the week:
- Semiconductor risk appetite: ADI has been trading near highs; momentum can amplify moves in either direction when the sector turns.
- Industrial read-throughs: any new datapoints about factory automation, defense-related electronics, energy infrastructure, or broader capex confidence matter disproportionately for ADI. [24]
- Analyst follow-through: after a cluster of target raises (UBS, Morgan Stanley, Wolfe), the next catalyst could be whether estimates rise again—or whether ratings begin to lag the price. [25]
- Capital return execution: investors will keep an eye on continued repurchases, especially given ADI’s disclosed remaining authorization. [26]
Bottom line before the Dec. 15 open
Analog Devices is entering Monday’s session with three things working in its favor: strong recent results, guidance above prior expectations, and a broadly supportive analyst backdrop. [27]
But the stock is also trading close to recent highs, and multiple forecast compilers show the average price target clustering near the current price, meaning ADI may need another round of estimate upgrades—or a clear acceleration in end-market demand—to sustain a strong breakout from here. [28]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.analog.com, 5. www.analog.com, 6. www.analog.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.marketscreener.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.analog.com, 18. www.analog.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.analog.com, 23. news.bloomberglaw.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com
