Anglo American plc shares are heading into the Christmas break with three storylines colliding in the most “mining-sector” way possible: a copper price sprint to fresh records, a mega-merger sprinting through approvals, and a portfolio clean-up that’s steadily turning Anglo into a simpler, more copper-heavy business.
As of the last full London session before the holiday closures, Anglo American traded around 2,993p (GBX), up ~3% over five days and ~11.5% since the start of 2025, according to market data published late Dec. 23. [1]
Below is what mattered most for Anglo American stock as of 24.12.2025, what analysts are forecasting, and what investors are watching next.
Why Anglo American stock is in focus right now
The stock’s near-term narrative is being driven by:
- Copper at record highs (a direct earnings lever, and a sentiment lever for all diversified miners). [2]
- The proposed Anglo–Teck “merger of equals” moving through shareholder votes, court steps, and key regulatory approvals—while still facing more hurdles. [3]
- Ongoing disposals and restructurings tied to Anglo’s post-offer commitments and “simplify-to-re-rate” strategy (nickel, platinum, steelmaking coal, De Beers, and Woodsmith). [4]
- A fresh iron ore–adjacent commercial partnership (via Grangex) that signals Anglo’s marketing push into “green steel” feedstocks. [5]
None of these items alone fully explains the stock. Together, they form a coherent thesis investors keep returning to: Anglo is trying to become a cleaner, more transparent “copper + premium iron ore + crop nutrients” platform—while also bulking up in copper via Teck. [6]
Market check: copper is doing copper things again
In the holiday-shortened London session on Dec. 23, Reuters reported that Anglo American rose 2.6% alongside other miners as copper crossed $12,000/tonne for the first time on record. [7]
That matters because the sector’s current “multiple” (how generously investors value earnings) tends to expand and contract with copper’s direction. The market isn’t just pricing today’s metal price; it’s pricing a view about how durable tight supply and electrification demand might be.
Even outside copper, metals were loud this week: a live market blog on Dec. 24 flagged record prices in gold, silver, and platinum, powered by a weaker dollar, policy expectations, and geopolitical nerves. [8]
For Anglo specifically, higher broad metals prices can lift sentiment, but copper remains the headline act—especially given the company’s stated strategic focus. [9]
Anglo–Teck merger: what’s approved, what’s not, and why it matters
The deal in one paragraph
Anglo American and Teck Resources agreed in September 2025 to combine in a $53 billion all-stock “merger of equals,” targeting the creation of a top-tier copper heavyweight (often described as “Anglo-Teck” / “Anglo Teck”). Reuters summarized the industrial logic bluntly: copper demand is rising (including from energy-hungry AI infrastructure), supply is constrained, and scale matters. [10]
Approvals and milestones so far
Key steps that are already in the bag:
- Shareholder approval (Dec. 9, 2025): Reuters reported Teck shareholders approved the merger; Reuters also separately reported Anglo and Teck shareholder approvals more broadly, leaving regulatory approvals as the next hurdle. [11]
- Court approval (Dec. 12, 2025): Teck said it obtained a final order from the Supreme Court of British Columbia approving the plan of arrangement—while emphasizing the merger still needs other closing conditions and approvals in multiple jurisdictions. [12]
- Canadian Investment Canada Act approval (Dec. 16, 2025): Reuters reported Canada approved the deal in roughly three months, faster than typical for transactions of this size, and noted Anglo-Teck made concessions including a commitment to spend C$4.5 billion in Canada within five years. [13]
The strategic payoff (and the obvious risks)
Reuters’ reporting highlights two big “why now” angles:
- Copper scale: Reuters said the combined company would produce more than 1.2 million tonnes of copper annually, positioning it as the fifth-largest copper producer globally. [14]
- Operating synergies: Reuters pointed to the potential consolidation of operations at adjacent Chilean copper mines—Teck’s Quebrada Blanca and Anglo’s Collahuasi—though it also noted Quebrada Blanca has faced production setbacks linked to tailings disposal issues. [15]
That last clause is key. “Bigger” is not automatically “better” in mining: integration complexity, permitting realities, tailings and water constraints, and political risk can all convert “synergy” into “surprise invoice.”
Portfolio transformation: what Anglo says it has done (and what’s still unfinished)
Anglo’s Dec. 19, 2025 regulatory statement updating its post-offer intention commitments (under the UK takeover code) is one of the most useful “single documents” for understanding the company’s transformation status as of this week. [16]
Here are the core moving pieces.
1) Nickel sale to MMG: agreed, but still waiting on the last approvals
Anglo reiterated it is finalizing the last outstanding regulatory approval with the European Commission to complete the sale of its nickel business to MMG (announced earlier in 2025). [17]
From Anglo’s February press release: the nickel deal is for up to $500 million, comprising $350 million upfront, up to $100 million in a price-linked earnout, and $50 million contingent on a final investment decision for development projects; the assets include Brazil-based ferronickel operations and growth projects. [18]
Regulatory scrutiny remains real. Reuters reported in late November that EU antitrust regulators paused (“stopped the clock”) their investigation because MMG did not provide requested information in time, amid concerns about ferronickel supply to Europe. [19]
2) Platinum demerger: executed, and the remaining stake sold
Anglo said it completed the demerger of ~51% of its interest in Anglo American Platinum (renamed Valterra Platinum) in June 2025, and later sold the remaining 19.9% stake in September 2025, raising ZAR 44.1 billion (~$2.5 billion). [20]
This is a big “simplification” milestone: fewer major business lines, less conglomerate discount, and fewer moving parts for analysts to model.
3) Steelmaking coal: partial progress, but a major asset sale remains unresolved
Anglo confirmed it completed the sale of its 33.3% interest in Jellinbah Group in January 2025. [21]
But the bigger chapter—selling the remainder of its steelmaking coal business—remains unsettled. Anglo noted it had entered agreements to sell the steelmaking coal business to Peabody in 2024, but in August 2025 Peabody made a statement “purporting to terminate” the agreements; Anglo says it has now re-initiated a formal sale process. [22]
Translation: there’s still execution risk (pricing, buyer appetite, regulatory issues, and time).
4) De Beers: divestment or demerger is in motion, not finished
Anglo said its Q3 Production Report described “good progress” on a dual-track separation and structured sale process for De Beers. [23]
Investors generally treat De Beers as both a brand jewel and a cyclicality headache—so the market impact of any separation will hinge on valuation, structure, and timing.
5) Woodsmith (crop nutrients): slowed pace, tighter capital discipline
On its crop nutrients project in the UK (Woodsmith), Anglo said it has slowed development to focus on critical work and to confirm schedule and capital assumptions, while keeping 2025 capex around $0.3 billion and working toward conditions required before full sanction (feasibility work, a syndication pathway, and balance sheet capacity). [24]
This is one of those “quietly enormous” projects that can either become a future growth engine—or a long-running capital sink—depending on execution and financing.
New Dec. 24 headline: Anglo American links up with Grangex on Norway’s Sydvaranger restart
One of the clearest date-specific Anglo-related items hitting the wires around Dec. 24, 2025 is a Grangex announcement describing a strategic commercial partnership with Anglo American tied to restarting the Sydvaranger mine in Northern Norway. [25]
According to Grangex’s release (dated Dec. 23, 2025):
- Anglo American will relinquish a $37 million royalty in exchange for exclusive 100% life-of-mine offtake of “direct reduction, ultra-high-grade magnetite concentrate.” [26]
- Anglo will provide $5 million of non-dilutive bridge financing (two tranches), and receives an option to participate in the project’s debt financing. [27]
- The target is to produce roughly 3.5 million tonnes per year of ~70% magnetite concentrate and begin operations in late 2026 (ambition unchanged). [28]
- Grangex also described an ESG advisory committee focused on evaluating alternatives to fjord tailings disposal. [29]
For Anglo, this reads less like “bet the company” capex and more like a marketing-and-supply-chain play: secure future high-grade iron units that help steel producers lower emissions, and broaden product optionality beyond existing premium iron ore streams.
Dividend calendar: Anglo publishes 2026 timetable (but not a promise)
Anglo issued a regulatory update laying out provisional dividend timetables for payments that could become payable in 2026—explicitly noting that confirmation of any actual dividend would come in results announcements. [30]
Notable dates in that timetable include (for the provisional final dividend schedule):
- Announcement date: Friday, 20 February 2026
- LSE ex-dividend date: Thursday, 12 March 2026
- Record date: Friday, 13 March 2026 [31]
This is mostly an administrative “heads-up,” but it also signals Anglo’s intent to keep dividend machinery ready even amid restructuring and deal execution.
Analyst forecasts for Anglo American stock: what the range looks like in late December 2025
Analyst views on Anglo American are… spirited. That’s normal for miners, where models are basically “engineering + geopolitics + commodity prices + vibes,” stitched together with spreadsheets.
Here’s what major forecast aggregators are showing around Dec. 24:
- Investing.com consensus: “Buy” overall, with an average 12‑month price target around 2,940.9p, and a range from roughly 2,014.8p (low) to 3,464.1p (high), based on 14 analysts. [32]
- MarketBeat consensus: average target about 2,603p (based on a smaller analyst set), implying downside versus ~2,993p. [33]
- Berenberg (reported via The Fly / TipRanks): price target raised to 3,400p from 3,100p, maintaining a Buy rating. [34]
Why the spread? Two reasons dominate:
- Different platforms track different broker universes and update schedules. [35]
- Small changes in long-term copper assumptions can swing net asset value (NAV) meaningfully.
Commodity outlook: the 2026 setup still matters more than the 2025 tape
The temptation is to anchor everything to today’s price spikes—record copper, record gold, record platinum. But miners get valued on how durable the cycle looks.
Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs expects copper to consolidate around $11,400/ton in 2026 due to tariff uncertainty, while still calling copper its favored industrial metal longer term because of electrification demand and constrained supply. [36]
That’s relevant to Anglo American’s story because the company is explicitly trying to emerge from restructuring as a business where copper (and copper growth) is easier for the market to see and price. [37]
Key risks and catalysts to watch after the holidays
Here’s what can plausibly move Anglo American stock from here—without resorting to crystal-ball cosplay:
- Merger completion timing and remaining regulatory approvals: Court approval is done, Canada has cleared a major hurdle, but Teck itself stresses additional approvals and customary closing conditions still apply. [38]
- Execution at Quebrada Blanca / Collahuasi and “synergy realism”: Reuters has already flagged operational constraints and tailings-linked setbacks as part of the merger backdrop. [39]
- Nickel sale clearance: Anglo says only one key approval remains, while Reuters notes the EU process has involved stop-the-clock events—meaning timelines can slip. [40]
- Steelmaking coal sale outcome: restarting a formal sale process can mean value recovery… or a slower, messier exit. [41]
- De Beers separation terms: structure and valuation will matter at least as much as “progress.” [42]
- Woodsmith capital discipline: a slower pace reduces near-term burn, but the market will want clarity on long-term economics and financing pathways. [43]
- Commodity volatility: copper can be heroic one quarter and humbling the next—especially when macro policy, tariffs, and China/US demand expectations shift. [44]
Bottom line for Dec. 24, 2025
Anglo American stock is being pulled forward by a bullish copper tape and pushed forward by merger progress—while simultaneously being “de-risked” (in theory) by a continuing exit from non-core assets and a clearer strategic focus.
The bull case is clean: a bigger, simpler, copper-heavy Anglo + strong copper demand + fewer conglomerate discounts. [45]
The bear case is also clean: regulatory delays, integration friction, commodity mean reversion, and asset-sale execution risk. [46]
Holiday markets are thin, but Anglo’s 2026 is not. It’s stacked with “event risk”—the kind that can reshape a stock’s valuation faster than any quarterly EPS print.
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investegate.co.uk, 5. attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com, 6. www.investegate.co.uk, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.theguardian.com, 9. www.investegate.co.uk, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.teck.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investegate.co.uk, 17. www.investegate.co.uk, 18. www.angloamerican.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.investegate.co.uk, 21. www.investegate.co.uk, 22. www.investegate.co.uk, 23. www.investegate.co.uk, 24. www.investegate.co.uk, 25. www.marketscreener.com, 26. attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com, 27. attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com, 28. attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com, 29. attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com, 30. www.moneyweb.co.za, 31. www.moneyweb.co.za, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.investegate.co.uk, 38. www.teck.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.investegate.co.uk, 41. www.investegate.co.uk, 42. www.investegate.co.uk, 43. www.investegate.co.uk, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.teck.com
