Antofagasta plc (LSE: ANTO) has spent December doing what copper-linked miners do best: whiplash with a purpose. After sprinting to a fresh 52‑week high (3,095p on 5 December), the FTSE 100 copper miner ended last week in consolidation mode, with the spotlight firmly on copper’s record-setting run and what comes next for rates, the dollar, and China-linked demand. [1]
As of 14 December 2025, Antofagasta is shown at 2,932p (previous close 2,963p), with a 52‑week range of 1,279.5p to 3,095p. That puts the shares roughly 5% below the December high, after a year in which the stock’s one‑year change is shown at +73.70% on Investing.com’s data. [2]
Below is what’s been moving Antofagasta in the last several days, what analysts are projecting, and the catalysts to watch in the week ahead.
Where Antofagasta shares stand after last week’s pullback
The week of 8–12 December was choppy rather than directional. Investing.com’s historical pricing shows:
- Mon (Dec 8): 2,958p (‑1.73%)
- Tue (Dec 9): 2,921p (‑1.25%)
- Wed (Dec 10): 2,920p (‑0.03%)
- Thu (Dec 11): 2,963p (+1.47%)
- Fri (Dec 12): 2,932p (‑1.05%) [3]
Net-net, the shares slipped less than 1% across the week—more “pause that refreshes” than “trend break”—while the bigger macro narrative stayed bullish for copper.
The big driver: copper’s surge is no longer a niche story
Copper has been trading like a protagonist.
Reuters reported on 12 December that copper prices were nearing $12,000 per metric ton, citing tightening supply and demand growth linked to AI-powered data centers, grid investment, and renewable infrastructure. Reuters also noted copper is up about 35% in 2025, with forecasts pointing to deficits of 124,000 tons in 2025 and 150,000 tons in 2026. [4]
That matters for Antofagasta because it is—at its core—an increasingly straightforward “copper torque” equity: higher copper expectations typically lift revenue assumptions and cashflow potential, while lower copper expectations compress them.
A second Reuters piece (5 December) added an important nuance: copper’s “bull surge” has coincided with tight exchange inventories and soaring physical premiums, but the global manufacturing pulse has looked less uniformly excited—suggesting part of the move has been about supply chain tightness and tariff-driven flows, not just classic demand exuberance. [5]
In other words: copper is behaving like a metal with both fundamentals and market plumbing in the driver’s seat. Antofagasta’s share price is reacting accordingly.
Antofagasta-specific news in recent days: an ESG-adjacent headline investors may notice
The most notable company-linked headline in the last few days wasn’t a production update—it was governance and industry positioning.
On 11 December 2025, ICMM (the International Council on Mining and Metals) announced it had elected Iván Arriagada, Antofagasta’s CEO, as Chair, effective immediately for a two‑year term. [6]
Mining.com also highlighted the development, framing it as a return to the role for Arriagada. [7]
Why this can matter (without overhyping it): ICMM is one of the key global mining bodies shaping best practices and expectations around responsible mining. For investors—especially large institutions—this kind of leadership role can be a modest signal about credibility in sustainability frameworks, which increasingly affects access to capital, permitting narratives, and reputational risk. It’s not a “tomorrow morning earnings” catalyst, but it’s not nothing either.
Fundamentals investors keep coming back to: production guidance, capex and growth execution
Antofagasta’s operational story this quarter hasn’t been about surprise upgrades; it’s been about delivery against guidance in a market that’s suddenly paying a premium for reliable copper supply.
In its 23 October 2025 update, Reuters reported Antofagasta expected annual copper output to be at the lower end of its 660,000–700,000 ton guidance range, and that it lowered 2025 capex guidance to $3.6 billion (from $3.9 billion), citing the depreciation of the Chilean peso and a deferral of some spending into 2026. Reuters also reported Antofagasta’s 2026 production view as 650,000–700,000 tons, with higher output expected from Los Pelambres. [8]
With copper prices screaming “supply matters,” the market tends to reward miners perceived as:
- operationally steady,
- politically and socially de-risked,
- and capable of executing expansions without “surprise capex gravity.”
Antofagasta’s challenge (and opportunity) is to keep fitting that description.
For context, Reuters’ company profile describes Antofagasta as focused on copper and by-products, operating Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, and Zaldívar in Chile, alongside a transport division (FCAB) serving mining activity in the Antofagasta region. [9]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: why “copper up” doesn’t automatically mean “ANTO up”
After a year like this, analysts tend to split into two camps:
- “Copper supercycle → structural upside.”
- “Great story, but the valuation already ate the story.”
That tension shows up in the published targets:
- Financial Times (FT Markets) shows a median 12‑month target equivalent to about 2,524.67 versus the last price near 2,932—implying downside on the median view, even while the high estimate is far above and the low estimate far below. [10]
- Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target of about 2,684p, with a high estimate ~3,505p and low estimate ~1,897p, and an overall rating shown as Neutral (with both buy and sell recommendations in the mix). [11]
- MarketBeat (which aggregates a smaller set on its page) shows a Moderate Buy consensus and an average target around 2,694p, again implying modest downside from ~2,932p. [12]
Takeaway: targets are not uniformly bullish at current levels, largely because the shares have already priced in a lot of good copper news. The disagreement isn’t really about whether copper is important—it’s about how much of the copper bull case is already in the share price, and whether costs/capex and cyclical risks should command a bigger discount.
Copper outlook: forecasts are rising, but so is the probability of violent pullbacks
If you’re trying to understand Antofagasta’s “week ahead,” you’re really trying to understand copper’s.
A key copper forecast update came via Reuters on 24 November 2025: UBS raised its copper price outlook and deficit expectations, citing deepening mine disruptions. Reuters reported UBS forecasts copper at $11,500/t by March 2026, $12,000/t by June, $12,500/t by September, and $13,000/t by December 2026, alongside larger deficit estimates. [13]
ING also argued in early December that supply disruptions have tightened balances and it sees deficits in both 2025 and 2026 (with ING’s deficit numbers differing from other forecasters—one reason this market remains… spicy). [14]
At the same time, Reuters’ “Doctor Copper” commentary (5 December) emphasized the oddity of record-high copper excitement alongside a less-than-booming global manufacturing backdrop, and highlighted tariff uncertainty as a key part of the current copper “euphoria.” [15]
So the bull case remains plausible—but the path may be more “staircase up, elevator down” than a smooth climb.
The week ahead: catalysts to watch (week of 15–19 December 2025)
1) Bank of England decision (major UK macro trigger for FTSE 100 sentiment)
The Bank of England lists the next Monetary Policy Committee publication as Thursday 18 December 2025. [16]
Why ANTO investors should care: UK rate expectations can move GBP, and GBP moves can influence FTSE miners’ translated earnings perception and broad risk appetite. Even if copper is the main event, local macro can still nudge the tape.
2) Markets digest the Fed’s early‑December decision (already happened—but still moving prices)
The Federal Reserve’s calendar shows the December FOMC meeting occurred on 9–10 December 2025, with the statement released on 10 December. [17]
The Fed’s implementation note states the fed funds target range is 3.5% to 3.75% effective 11 December 2025. [18]
Why it matters for ANTO: the Fed influences the US dollar, and the dollar influences dollar-priced copper, global liquidity, and risk appetite. Copper’s recent strength has been occurring in a macro environment that has also been shifting around rates—so it remains part of the story even after the announcement.
3) Copper “plumbing”: inventories, premiums, and US tariff-driven flows
Reuters reported that US markets have been absorbing a major share of global copper stocks, with Comex holding a large portion of exchange‑traded copper, partly linked to tariff uncertainty and price differentials. [19]
For the coming week, watch for any fresh signals that:
- inventory tightness is easing (bearish copper impulse), or
- premiums/inventories stay strained (supports the “tight supply” narrative).
4) China sentiment and stimulus expectations (the demand anchor)
Reuters’ Morning Bid (12 December) pointed to copper enthusiasm alongside expectations of further China stimulus. [20]
For Antofagasta, China doesn’t need to be “perfect”—it just needs to be “not collapsing” while electrification and grid spend keep grinding forward. The market, however, will react quickly to surprises either way.
5) Company calendar: the next big Antofagasta catalyst is not imminent
Investing.com lists Antofagasta’s next earnings report date as 24 February 2026. [21]
That means macro + copper are likely to dominate the next week’s price action unless an unexpected company update lands.
Key risks investors are pricing (and should keep in view)
Even in a bullish copper tape, Antofagasta faces the usual miner reality checks:
- Copper reversals: When copper sells off, miners often amplify the move.
- Policy risk: Tariffs and trade rules can distort flows and pricing. [22]
- Execution risk on capex-heavy growth: The market is unforgiving of delays and overruns, especially after a big run-up. [23]
- Chile-specific operating complexities: water, permitting, community relations, and labor are perennial variables for any major Chilean operator (even well-run ones).
- Valuation compression: As analyst target medians suggest, the stock can be “good” while the price is “ahead of itself.” [24]
Bottom line for the week ahead
Antofagasta enters the new week looking like a stock in consolidation after a strong breakout, with the share price still near the top of its 52‑week range. [25]
The near-term direction likely hinges less on company-specific surprises (none are scheduled) and more on:
- copper’s ability to hold its “tight supply + AI/grid demand” narrative, [26]
- how markets interpret rates and FX after the Fed meeting, [27]
- and the BoE decision on 18 December, which may sway UK risk sentiment and sterling. [28]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.icmm.com, 7. www.mining.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. markets.ft.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. think.ing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 17. www.federalreserve.gov, 18. www.federalreserve.gov, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. markets.ft.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.federalreserve.gov, 28. www.bankofengland.co.uk
