Antofagasta plc shares are hovering near 52-week highs as copper prices surge. Here’s the latest ANTO share price action, company updates, dividends, production guidance, and what analyst forecasts imply for 2026.
Published: December 13, 2025
Antofagasta plc (LSE: ANTO) is having the kind of year copper bulls daydream about: a strong share-price run, a commodity tailwind that just refuses to quit, and a steady drumbeat of project updates aimed at boosting production over the medium term. But as of December 13, 2025, the stock also sits in that classic “great story, expensive expectations” zone—where the copper narrative is hot, yet many analyst targets cluster below the current share price.
Below is a detailed roundup of the most current information available as of today: the latest ANTO share price and momentum, the copper-market backdrop, Antofagasta’s most recent production and financial updates, and where broker forecasts and targets sit heading into 2026.
ANTO share price today: near the highs, but choppy in the short term
Because December 13, 2025 is a Saturday, UK markets are closed; the most recent trading data reflects Friday, December 12 pricing.
Antofagasta shares were around 2,932p (GBX), down about 1.05% on the day, with the prior close at 2,963p and an intraday range that reached just over 3,031p at the high end. [1]
What stands out is how close the stock has been to its recent peak. MarketWatch reported the shares set a 52‑week high of £30.95 on December 5, and the following sessions saw a series of modest up/down moves rather than a clean breakout. [2]
Financial Times market data (sourced from LSEG) shows Antofagasta up roughly +72% over one year, reinforcing the big-picture trend: ANTO has been a primary beneficiary of 2025’s copper surge. [3]
The big driver: copper’s 2025 rally (and the “AI + electrification” demand story)
Antofagasta is, at its core, a geared play on copper. So when copper gets a narrative upgrade, miners with credible growth pipelines tend to re-rate.
A Reuters market analysis published December 12, 2025 described copper pushing toward $12,000 per metric ton, fueled by tightening supply and rising demand tied to power grids, renewables, and AI data centers—with copper up around 35% in 2025, its strongest annual gain since 2009. [4]
Reuters also highlighted forecasts for a refined copper supply deficit, citing expectations of a shortfall of roughly 124,000 tons in 2025 and 150,000 tons in 2026—exactly the kind of “structural tightness” math that tends to keep long-cycle miners in the spotlight. [5]
For Antofagasta shareholders, that macro picture matters because it can do two things at once:
- Support realized copper prices (directly lifting revenue and cash flow).
- Justify growth capex (if the market believes higher prices are durable, investors tolerate big build programs more readily).
Chile’s mining backdrop: investment is rising, but supply takes time
Antofagasta’s operations are in Chile, which remains central to global copper supply. On December 11, 2025, Reuters reported that Chile’s state agency Cochilco raised its mining investment forecast through 2034 to around $104.5 billion, up about 26% versus the prior projection—underscoring the scale of capital being mobilized in the country’s mining sector. [6]
That sounds like “more supply eventually,” but the key word is eventually. New pits, concentrators, water infrastructure, permitting, community engagement, and grid capacity don’t move at internet speed. For a producer like Antofagasta, this environment can be a double-edged sword: supportive long-term demand and investment interest, but persistent execution and cost challenges across the industry.
Antofagasta’s latest company news: production guidance, costs, and capex adjustments
The most recent major operational update from Antofagasta is its Q3 2025 Production Report (October 23, 2025).
Production: on track, but toward the lower end for 2025
In that report, Antofagasta said:
- Q3 2025 copper production:161.8 kt
- 9M 2025 copper production:476.6 kt (up year-on-year)
- FY 2025 guidance: still 660–700 kt, but now expected at the lower end of the range [7]
For investors, “lower end of guidance” is not automatically bearish—it depends on whether costs fall enough (and copper prices rise enough) to keep margins fat.
Costs: by-products are doing real work
A key bullish detail in the same report: Antofagasta pointed to a record by-product credit of $1.35/lb, driven by higher gold production and favorable pricing, helping push net cash costs lower. [8]
The company lowered its 2025 net cash cost guidance to $1.20–$1.30/lb. [9]
That matters because Antofagasta doesn’t just “sell copper.” It also produces by-products (like gold and molybdenum), and when those by-products are strong, they effectively subsidize the copper cost base—making the business more resilient if copper pulls back.
Capex: trimmed, but still a heavy investment phase
Antofagasta also reduced its 2025 capex guidance to $3.6 billion, citing the depreciation of the Chilean peso as a driver. [10]
The message: the growth program is still on, but the spending profile is being actively managed.
2026 copper production guidance: 650–700 kt
The Q3 report included an early view of next year:
- FY 2026 copper production expected:650–700 kt, with incremental gains expected at Los Pelambres. [11]
The company also flagged that it would provide 2026 guidance for costs and capex in the Q4 2025 Production Report, due in January 2026—a near-term catalyst for investors tracking the next spending and margin profile. [12]
Financial performance and dividends: strong H1 2025, shareholder returns continue
Antofagasta’s Half Year 2025 Results (six months ended June 30, 2025) showed a sharp improvement in profitability:
- Revenue:$3,799.4m
- EBITDA:$2,234.2m (up 60% year-on-year)
- EBITDA margin:58.8%
- Underlying EPS:47.4 cents
- Net debt / EBITDA:0.54x
- Interim dividend:16.6 cents per share [13]
Reuters also covered the half-year performance, similarly highlighting the jump in core earnings tied to higher production and prices. [14]
For income-focused investors, the dividend mechanics matter. Antofagasta later confirmed the sterling equivalent of the 16.6 US cents interim dividend as 12.2636p per share, with payment scheduled for September 30, 2025. [15]
Zooming out to the prior full-year cycle, Reuters reported earlier in 2025 that Antofagasta proposed a final dividend of 23.5 cents per share for 2024 results, consistent with its policy of returning at least a portion of earnings to shareholders. [16]
Growth projects: why investors keep talking about Centinela and Los Pelambres
Antofagasta’s investment case isn’t just “copper price go up.” It’s also “build now, produce more later”—with two flagship growth efforts.
Centinela Second Concentrator: bigger, lower-cost district ambition
On the company’s Growth Projects overview, Antofagasta describes the Centinela Second Concentrator as a two-phase project. For Phase 1:
- Expected capacity: 95,000 tonnes of ore per day
- Expected output (first 10 years average): ~170,000 tonnes of copper equivalent per year (copper + by-products like gold and molybdenum)
- Phase 1 capital cost:$4.4 billion (including a new water supply system)
- Strategic goal: move Centinela toward the first cost quartile of global producers [17]
Antofagasta also hosted an investor and analyst site tour (Nov 5–6, 2025) for the project, reiterating it remains “on track and on budget.” [18]
Los Pelambres: water and throughput resilience
The same Growth Projects material describes a desalination expansion strategy designed to support resilience and throughput, with a project expected to be completed in 2027 (per the company’s description of construction timing). [19]
In Chile, where water security can constrain mining output and expansion, desalination and related infrastructure are not “nice-to-haves.” They’re the practical plumbing behind long-term production.
Analyst forecasts for Antofagasta stock: upside targets exist, but consensus implies downside
Here’s where the story gets intriguingly… human.
Consensus targets: median below the current share price
Financial Times market data (LSEG-sourced) shows 18 analysts providing 12‑month price targets, with:
- Median target:~2,524.67
- High estimate:~3,502.84
- Low estimate:~1,481.45
That median implies roughly -13.9% versus the referenced last price around 2,932p. [20]
In other words: ANTO’s 2025 run has been strong enough that the “average analyst” now looks at the stock and says, cool company, but a lot is priced in.
Recommendations: more “Hold” than “Buy”
FT’s snapshot of recommendations (dated Dec 11, 2025 on the page) shows a spread that leans cautious:
- Buy: 2
- Outperform: 4
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 3
- Strong Sell: 1 [21]
That distribution is consistent with a mature bull-market setup: analysts may still like the fundamentals, but valuation and cycle risk keep ratings from clustering in “Buy.”
Broker targets: wide dispersion (1,900p to 3,500p)
Broker updates compiled on the London South East broker ratings page show how split professional opinion is. Recent notable entries include:
- JP Morgan Cazenove: Overweight; target raised to 3,500p (Dec 3, 2025)
- Deutsche: Hold; target raised to 2,400p (Nov 26, 2025)
- RBC Capital Markets: Sector Perform; target 1,900p (Nov 11, 2025)
- Canaccord Genuity: Buy; target raised to 3,165p (Nov 11, 2025)
- Berenberg: Buy; target 2,900p (Nov 7 / Oct 8 updates shown) [22]
That range tells you something important: analysts are not just forecasting Antofagasta—they’re forecasting copper, project execution, cost inflation, and Chile operating conditions, all at once. Change any of those inputs and the valuation can swing dramatically.
What could move ANTO stock next: the near-term catalyst checklist
As of December 13, 2025, the next major drivers to watch are fairly clear:
- Copper price direction into early 2026
Copper is doing the heavy lifting for the whole sector narrative right now. Reuters’ December 12 report frames the market as tight, with demand boosted by AI and electrification themes. [23] - Q4 2025 Production Report (expected January 2026)
Antofagasta has explicitly pointed investors to this update for 2026 cost and capex guidance. [24] - Execution updates on Centinela and Los Pelambres
Projects “on track and on budget” are great words. The market still wants proof—especially during a heavy capex phase. [25] - Dividend expectations and capital allocation discipline
The company’s 2025 interim dividend and earlier final dividend proposal reinforce shareholder returns as a core part of the story. [26]
The risks investors keep circling (because the universe loves plot twists)
Even in a copper bull market, miners are never “set and forget.” The main risk buckets for Antofagasta as of now:
- Commodity risk: if copper cools meaningfully after a 2025 run, valuations can compress quickly (even if operations remain solid). [27]
- Execution risk: multi‑billion-dollar projects have schedule, cost, and ramp-up risk—especially when the broader mining supply chain is tight. [28]
- Cost and currency dynamics: Antofagasta explicitly cited Chilean peso depreciation affecting capex guidance—currency can help or hurt depending on direction and timing. [29]
- Expectation risk: with the stock near 52‑week highs, “good” news sometimes isn’t enough; the market may demand “great” news. [30]
Bottom line: Antofagasta looks like a copper winner, but analysts are divided at today’s price
As of December 13, 2025, Antofagasta sits at the intersection of three powerful forces:
- A copper market with bullish supply/demand framing (AI + electrification + tight supply) [31]
- A company reporting strong 2025 financial momentum and actively investing for a step-up in output [32]
- A stock price that has already moved a long way, fast—leaving consensus analyst targets and recommendations more cautious than the headline copper excitement might suggest [33]
For readers tracking ANTO into 2026, the cleanest “next update” is the January 2026 Q4 production report, because it should clarify cost and capex expectations at precisely the moment the market is debating whether copper’s late‑2025 strength is a peak—or merely the opening act. [34]
References
1. www.lse.co.uk, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. markets.ft.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 8. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 9. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 10. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 11. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 12. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 13. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 18. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 19. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 20. markets.ft.com, 21. markets.ft.com, 22. www.lse.co.uk, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 25. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 26. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 29. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 33. markets.ft.com, 34. www.antofagasta.co.uk
