ANZ Group Holdings (ASX: ANZ) on 5 December 2025: Share Price, Dividend Yield, AGM Pay Revolt and 2026 Stock Outlook

ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) enters 5 December 2025 trading near multi‑year highs, offering an almost 5% dividend yield but facing one of the most contentious annual general meetings in the Australian banking sector in years. A record regulatory penalty, a formal risk‑culture crackdown and aggressive cost‑cutting under a new CEO are reshaping the investment case for Australia’s fourth‑largest bank. ^[1]

Below is a full rundown of ANZ’s latest share price, earnings, governance battles, and what brokers and models are currently forecasting for the stock.

ANZ share price today: trading around the mid‑A$30s

As of the close on 4 December 2025, ANZ Group Holdings shares were trading just above A$35 per share, with most real‑time quote providers clustering around A$35.2–35.4. Google Finance, Investing.com and TradingView each show recent closes or last trades at roughly A$35.3, with an intraday range near A$35.0–35.5. ^[2]

Key market metrics around that level include:

Market capitalisation: about A$105–107 billion ^[3]
52‑week trading range: roughly A$26.22–38.93 ^[4]
1‑year share price performance: up around 10–14% over the past 12 months, depending on the data provider ^[5]
Price‑to‑earnings (P/E): about 17–18x trailing earnings ^[6]

That leaves ANZ trading in the middle of the Australian major‑bank pack: more expensive than in the immediate post‑Royal‑Commission years, but still at a discount to Commonwealth Bank on standard valuation metrics. TechStock²+1

FY25 results: profit hit by charges, but underlying earnings steady

ANZ released its 2025 full‑year results (year ended 30 September 2025) on 10 November. Headline profit fell, but the underlying picture is more nuanced. ^[7]

Headline numbers:

Statutory profit: A$5,891 million, down 10% on FY24
Cash profit: A$5,787 million
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio:12.0% at group level
Cash return on equity:8.1%, or 9.6% excluding significant items
Total credit impairment charge: A$441 million, with credit quality described as “sound” ^[8]

Crucially, ANZ flagged A$1.109 billion in “significant items” – largely related to restructuring and regulatory penalties – that reduced reported cash profit. Excluding these items, management says cash profit was broadly flat year‑on‑year at about A$6.9 billion, with stronger institutional and New Zealand businesses offsetting weaker performance in Australian retail and business banking. ^[9]

CEO Nuno Matos, who took the top job in May 2025, framed the result as proof of a solid underlying franchise but acknowledged that “action is needed”, particularly in Australian retail and business banking, where intense competition and a falling interest‑rate environment have squeezed margins. ^[10]

Dividend: high yield, partially franked, buy‑back paused

Despite the profit hit, ANZ maintained a generous payout:

Final dividend FY25:83 cents per share
Full‑year dividend:166 cents per share, partially franked at 70% ^[11]

At a share price around A$35.3, that equates to a trailing cash dividend yield of roughly 4.7–4.8%, according to consensus data on Investing.com and other aggregators. ^[12]

Management has, however, taken a more conservative approach to capital management:

The board halted the remaining ~A$800 million on‑market share buy‑back, choosing instead to retain capital while it deals with regulatory issues and funds a major transformation program. ^[13]
ANZ will still return about A$1 billion of surplus capital from its non‑operating holding company to the bank, keeping its pro‑forma CET1 ratio around 12.2%. ^[14]

For income‑focused investors, ANZ continues to look like a classic high‑yield, big‑four dividend stock – but one now carrying additional regulatory and governance risk that could affect future payout decisions. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

Record ASIC penalty and APRA risk‑culture crackdown

Two overlapping regulatory sagas dominate ANZ’s risk profile heading into 2026.

A$240 million ASIC penalty for widespread misconduct

In September 2025, ANZ admitted widespread misconduct and agreed to pay A$240 million in penalties, the largest single penalty ever imposed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). ^[15]

ASIC and subsequent media reports point to a long list of failures, including:

Unconscionable conduct in a A$14 billion government bond deal, which may have cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars
Charging fees to deceased customers and mishandling deceased estates
Misleading statements about interest rates and failing to properly address hardship notices from vulnerable customers

The penalty still requires Federal Court approval. Recent hearings have seen Justice Jonathan Beach openly question whether the proposed A$240 million settlement is “on the light side” given the extent of ANZ’s failures, suggesting the final outcome – and public scrutiny – could yet intensify. ^[16]

APRA’s Court Enforceable Undertaking and extra capital buffer

Separately, the banking regulator APRA has forced ANZ into a long‑term risk‑culture remediation program:

In April 2025, APRA accepted a Court Enforceable Undertaking (CEU) from ANZ to overhaul its non‑financial risk management after an independent review found systemic weaknesses beyond the bond‑trading unit. ^[17]
APRA also lifted ANZ’s operational risk capital add‑on to A$1 billion, up from A$750 million and originally A$500 million in 2019, effectively tying up more equity until risk‑culture reforms are proven. ^[18]

ANZ has responded with a detailed Root Cause Remediation Plan that APRA has now approved, but the capital add‑on and CEU will remain in place until the regulator is satisfied that the bank’s “good news” culture and risk failings have been genuinely fixed. TechStock²+2ANZ+2

For shareholders, that adds a regulatory overhang to the stock – limiting capital flexibility and arguably justifying some valuation discount versus peers until ANZ demonstrates a sustained clean‑up. TechStock²+1

CEO Nuno Matos’ reset: job cuts, cost savings and Suncorp integration

New CEO Nuno Matos, formerly a senior executive at HSBC, has moved quickly to reshape ANZ since taking over in May 2025. ^[19]

Key elements of his strategy include:

Large‑scale cost‑cutting:
- Around 3,500 permanent jobs and 1,000 contractor roles are slated to be cut by late 2026. ^[20]
- FY25 results included a A$414 million after‑tax charge for redundancies. ^[21]
- Management is targeting roughly A$800 million in pre‑tax cost savings from restructuring and exiting non‑core businesses. TechStock²+1
Capital reallocation and simplification:
- Pausing the A$800 million share buy‑back to preserve capital for transformation and regulatory obligations. ^[22]
- Accelerating the integration of Suncorp Bank, with expected annual cost and revenue synergies lifted to around A$500 million in some recent commentary. TechStock²+1
Return targets and strategy horizon:
- Under the “ANZ 2030” strategy, management is aiming to lift return on tangible equity into the low‑teens (around 12–13%) by the end of the decade, compared with high single digits today. ^[23]

The Finance Sector Union has challenged the job cuts in the Fair Work Commission, highlighting worker unrest and reputational risk around the restructuring program. ^[24]

Execution of this cost‑out and integration agenda – without triggering fresh customer or compliance blow‑ups – is central to the medium‑term ANZ equity story. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

AGM pay revolt: second strike risk and board spill threat

Governance has become the hottest near‑term catalyst for ANZ shares.

Proxy advisers line up against the pay report

In the week leading up to 5 December 2025:

Influential proxy advisers CGI Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) have both recommended that investors vote against ANZ’s executive remuneration report at the 18 December AGM. ^[25]
Their criticism focuses on A$32 million of bonus cuts for former executives – including A$13.5 million docked from former CEO Shayne Elliott – which they argue still leave too much long‑term incentive value on the table given the scale of ANZ’s misconduct and regulatory failures. ^[26]

This comes after ANZ recorded a “first strike” on its pay report in 2024, when more than 25% of shareholders voted against it. A second strike in 2025 would trigger a board spill resolution, forcing a separate vote on whether to put all directors up for re‑election. ^[27]

While ISS and Glass Lewis are not recommending a spill, the symbolic impact of a second strike would be significant and could keep ANZ under intense governance scrutiny well into 2026.

Investors and governance groups divided

The broader investor community is split:

Some groups, including Ownership Matters and institutional investor body ACSI, are reported to support the board’s recommendations, arguing that the bonus cuts represent a serious accountability step and that further clawbacks remain possible. ^[28]
The Australian Shareholders’ Association has indicated support for the pay report but signalled opposition to the re‑election of chair Paul O’Sullivan over leadership and oversight concerns. ^[29]

For the share price, the AGM outcome matters less for immediate earnings and more for perceived governance risk: a second strike or a messy board debate could extend the valuation overhang already created by ASIC and APRA actions. TechStock²+1

How the market values ANZ: analyst ratings and price targets

Across major data aggregators, the message on ANZ is remarkably consistent: solid bank, strong dividend, limited near‑term upside, material execution and governance risk.

Sell‑side consensus

Investing.com’s consolidated analyst data (14 analysts) shows: ^[30]

Consensus rating: Neutral
Recommendations: 4 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:A$35.24
Target range:A$30 (low) to A$40.40 (high)

TipRanks, which tracks 11 analysts over the past three months, reports a similar picture, with an average target in the A$34–35 range and a high estimate a little above A$40. ^[31]

Since ANZ is already trading around A$35.3, these targets imply very limited upside – roughly flat to a couple of percent – over the next year on average. ^[32]

Broker colour and relative positioning

Recent broker commentary collated in market wrap‑ups paints ANZ as:

Equal‑weight / Neutral for firms like Morgan Stanley, with target prices around A$34 and a view that cost‑saving potential is largely in the price. TechStock²+1
Overweight for some houses such as Jarden, which see upside if the ANZ 2030 plan and Suncorp synergies are delivered cleanly, with targets near A$35. TechStock²+1
Underweight / Sell among more cautious brokers concerned about higher regulatory costs, risk‑culture issues and the paused buy‑back limiting capital returns and capping the multiple. TechStock²+1

Overall, analysts appear to be pricing ANZ as a mature, income‑oriented bank rather than a deep‑value turnaround or high‑growth story. TechStock²+2Investing.com+2

Quant models and technical outlook

Quantitative and technical services add some colour but do not radically change the story:

StockInvest recently upgraded ANZ (ANZ.AX) from “Sell” to “Hold/Accumulate”, noting oversold technical indicators but classifying it as a hold candidate rather than a strong buy. Its three‑month model currently suggests potential upside of around 11–12%, with a 90% probability band that stretches into the high‑A$30s to low‑A$40s. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
Support and resistance levels cited by technical analysts cluster around A$33–34 on the downside and A$36–37 on the upside, consistent with a stock in consolidation mode after a strong run earlier in 2025. TechStock²+1
TradingView’s blended indicator dashboard rates ANZ “Neutral”, with volatility slightly above the broader market (beta around 1.3). TechStock²+1

These tools largely echo the fundamental consensus: decent upside if execution goes well, but no clear technical signal that the market is mispricing the stock dramatically in either direction. TechStock²+1

Macro backdrop: RBA cuts, household caution and housing resilience

ANZ’s 2025 story is playing out against a shifting interest‑rate landscape and a cautious consumer backdrop.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate three times in 2025, from 4.35% to 3.60% by August, before pausing at its September and November meetings. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
ANZ’s economics team now expects the cash rate to stay at 3.60% for an extended period, with inflation around 3.8% and unemployment a little above 4%. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

Lower rates tend to compress net interest margins, especially in fiercely competitive mortgage markets, which ANZ singled out as a pressure point in its FY25 commentary. ^[33]

At the same time, early data suggest households are becoming more cautious, with ANZ economists noting that Australians are saving a higher share of their income despite the rate cuts. ^[34]

Housing markets remain relatively resilient, with some forecasts for further price gains into 2026 thanks to constrained supply and earlier rate cuts – a dynamic that generally supports banks’ mortgage books but raises affordability and political risks. TechStock²+1

For ANZ, this macro mix means:

Margins under structural pressure, especially while it tries to regain share in Australian mortgages
Credit quality risk moderated, so long as the RBA avoids a sharp tightening cycle and unemployment does not spike
A premium on cost control and fee income growth to sustain returns while net interest margins grind lower

Key risks and catalysts for ANZ shares into 2026

Looking beyond 5 December 2025, several events and themes are likely to drive ANZ’s share price over the next 12 months: Reuters+4TechStock²+4TechStock²+4

2025 AGM – 18 December
- Outcome of the remuneration report vote and the possibility of a second strike.
- Any moves on board refresh or further accountability for past misconduct.
Dividend payment and DRP participation
- Investor appetite for the final FY25 dividend and the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) at a 1.5% discount will give clues about how supportive existing shareholders remain at current valuations. ^[35]
Regulatory follow‑through
- Court approval (or adjustment) of the A$240 million ASIC penalty.
- APRA’s evolving stance on the A$1 billion capital add‑on and the effectiveness of ANZ’s risk‑culture remediation. ^[36]
Execution of cost cuts and Suncorp synergies
- Evidence that the promised A$800 million in cost savings and enhanced Suncorp Bank synergies are flowing through to the FY26 numbers without major operational or reputational damage. TechStock²+2Reuters+2
Interest‑rate path and economic data
- Any surprise shift in RBA policy – either renewed hikes if inflation re‑accelerates or deeper‑than‑expected cuts if growth falters – would directly hit ANZ’s margins, loan growth and impairments. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
Rebuilding trust and culture
- Tangible signs that ANZ has moved beyond its long‑criticised “good news” culture and embedded tougher non‑financial risk management will be critical to reducing the regulatory risk premium investors currently demand. ^[37]

Bottom line: how ANZ stock looks on 5 December 2025

Pulling all of this together, ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) currently looks like:

A well‑capitalised, systemically important bank with CET1 around 12% and an extra A$1 billion capital add‑on tied to risk‑culture concerns ^[38]
A high‑yield dividend stock, offering roughly 4.7–4.8% cash yield with partially franked payouts and a long history of twice‑yearly dividends ^[39]
A franchise with modest expected earnings growth, where consensus forecasts and price targets cluster very close to the current share price
A “prove‑it” governance and culture turnaround, under intense scrutiny from regulators, courts and proxy advisers in the wake of a record ASIC penalty and a looming AGM pay revolt ^[40]

For investors and traders scanning Google News or Discover on 5 December 2025, ANZ is not a classic deep bargain or a speculative rocket. It is a large, income‑oriented bank part‑way through a complex reset, where dividend sustainability, regulatory outcomes and execution on cost cuts and culture will matter at least as much as the next quarter’s profit headline.