ANZ Group Holdings (ASX: ANZ) Share Price Outlook Before the ASX Opens on 1 December 2025

Heading into the ASX open on Monday, 1 December 2025, ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) finds itself at a crossroads: the share price has pulled back from record highs, the dividend is locked in, and investors are weighing an ambitious cost‑cutting and cultural overhaul against mounting regulatory pressure.

Below is a rundown of the latest price action, news, forecasts and analysis dated 28–30 November 2025, plus the broader context that will matter before the bell.

ANZ share price snapshot heading into Monday’s open

ANZ shares last traded at A$34.64 at the close on Friday 28 November 2025. That session saw: ^[1]

Open: A$34.73
High / Low: A$35.00 / A$34.57
Close: A$34.64 (down ~0.3% for the day)
Volume: ~4.6 million shares

On a longer view: ^[2]

Year to date 2025: ANZ is up about 22%, with a 2025 trading range of roughly A$26.22–A$38.93.
FY26 to date (since 1 October): up almost 19%.
Market capitalisation: around A$103 billion as of 28 November 2025.

At Friday’s close, FNArena data and other market sources put ANZ on: ^[3]

Trailing P/E: ~14x
Forward P/E: ~13–14x
Price‑to‑book: about 1.4–1.5x
Trailing cash dividend yield: just under 4.8–5% (before franking credits)

So, going into 1 December, investors are looking at a big‑four bank on a mid‑teens earnings multiple, with a near‑5% yield after a strong run off April lows.

What moved ANZ shares on Friday, 28 November 2025?

Banks lagged a positive ASX session

The broader market ended the week on a positive note. The S&P/ASX 200 finished Friday almost flat on the day but up around 2.4% for the week, its first positive week in a month. Defensive and growth sectors – consumer staples, technology and materials – led gains. ^[4]

By contrast, the big four banks underperformed:

Coverage from news.com.au notes that Westpac fell about 0.8% and that ANZ, CBA and NAB all recorded slightly larger declines, dragging on the financials sector. ^[5]

So ANZ’s modest 0.3% drop on Friday fits a broader pattern: a solid week for the index, but a softer one for the banks.

Intraday tone: digestion, not panic

A detailed 28 November wrap from TS2Tech describes ANZ as trading “softer” on Friday as investors continued to digest: TS2 Tech+1

The November full‑year results,
The unchanged but generous dividend,
An aggressive cost‑cutting and restructuring plan, and
Ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

The article frames the move as part of a short‑term consolidation after the share price hit record highs near A$38.90 in mid‑November, not as the start of a new downtrend. That’s consistent with the price data, which show ANZ retreating from that high but still firmly above its April 2025 lows around A$26. ^[6]

Fresh research and forecasts (28–30 November 2025)

28 November: dividend, cost cuts and regulation in focus

The TS2Tech analysis of ANZ on 28 November 2025 lays out how the market is currently thinking about the stock: TS2 Tech+1

ANZ 2030 strategy:
- Targeting about A$800 million of pre‑tax cost savings in the current year, mainly via headcount reductions and simplification.
- Cancelling the remaining ~A$800 million of a A$2 billion share buyback, redirecting capital to restructuring, technology and Suncorp integration.
- Doubling expected synergies from the Suncorp Bank acquisition to around A$500 million per year once fully integrated.
- Ambition to lift return on tangible equity (ROTE) to ~12% by 2028 and 13% by 2030, from roughly 10% today.
Dividend profile:
- Final FY25 dividend of 83 cents per share, 70% franked, bringing the full‑year dividend to 166 cents, unchanged on FY24. ^[7]
- Ex‑dividend date: 13 November 2025; record date: 14 November 2025; payment date: 19 December 2025.
- At a price in the mid‑A$34s–A$35s, that equates to a trailing cash yield just under 5%, broadly in line with other big four banks. ^[8]
Valuation snapshot on 28 November:
- Trading around 13–14x forward earnings,
- ~1.4x book value, and
- Roughly 10–11% below its 52‑week high but well above its 2025 lows. TS2 Tech+1

The core message of that 28 November analysis: ANZ is no longer obviously cheap, but investors are still paying up for a high‑yield bank with strong capital and a credible (if risky) transformation plan.

30 November: Rask valuation deep‑dive

On 30 November 2025, Rask Media published a dedicated piece titled “Are ANZ shares good value? 2 ways to value them”. The article: ^[9]

Works with an ANZ share price “around A$35”.
Runs through two classic valuation lenses for the bank:
1. An earnings‑based multiple (price‑to‑earnings), and
2. A dividend/yield‑based assessment.
Emphasises that headline ratios alone aren’t enough – investors also need to think about earnings growth, payout sustainability, regulatory risk and capital needs.

While Rask doesn’t present ANZ as a screaming bargain, the tone suggests a roughly “fair value” stance: attractive yield and capital position on one side, offset by execution risk on cost cuts and cultural reform on the other.

30 November: model‑driven share price forecasts

Also dated 30 November 2025, forecasting site AUDToday updates its ANZ share price forecast for 2025–2027. Using ANZ’s most recent close of A$34.64, the site’s model projects that: ^[10]

Over the next couple of weeks in December, ANZ could trade mostly in the low‑to‑mid A$30s, with near‑term daily forecasts generally between roughly A$31.5 and A$37.
Further out, the model shows a gradual upward trend into the mid‑A$40s to mid‑A$50s by 2027, with plenty of volatility along the way.

These forecasts are mechanical and based on historical patterns, not on a detailed fundamental view, but they add to the picture that short‑term expectations are for consolidation rather than a sharp move in either direction.

Fundamentals: FY25 profit, dividend and ANZ 2030 strategy

ANZ released its FY25 results on 10 November 2025, covering the year to 30 September 2025: ^[11]

Statutory profit: A$5.89 billion, down about 10% on the prior year.
Cash profit: A$5.79 billion.
Cash ROE:8.1%; cash return on tangible equity around 8.8%.
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio: about 12.0–12.03%, up ~25 basis points in the second half; pro‑forma CET1 including capital actions around 12.26%.

The result was weighed down by A$1.11 billion in after‑tax charges related to restructuring, staff cuts and a major regulatory settlement, flagged in late October. ^[12]

Key pieces of that charge included:

Around A$414 million after tax for redundancies,
About A$264 million linked to ASIC settlements over markets and retail issues,
Approximately A$78 million from winding down the Cashrewards business, and
A roughly A$285 million post‑tax impairment on ANZ’s stake in PT Bank Pan Indonesia.

Despite these one‑offs, the board held the full‑year dividend flat at 166 cents, signaling confidence in the underlying earnings and capital position. ^[13]

CFO Farhan Faruqui’s briefing also underscored that: ^[14]

Provisioning remains conservative, with collective provisions of about A$4.38 billion (around 1.18% of credit risk‑weighted assets), and
Non‑performing loans are low and stable, helped by ANZ’s skew toward institutional and higher‑quality borrowers.

In short, underlying credit quality looks solid, but FY25 earnings were dented by the “clean‑up” costs of the new strategy and regulatory settlements.

Regulation, risk culture and ESG pressures

From a risk perspective, the most important news flow in November hasn’t been about quarterly numbers – it’s been about culture and regulation.

“Good news” culture and APRA enforceable undertaking

A McKinsey review published mid‑November found that ANZ has a so‑called “good news” culture that discourages staff from escalating bad news and noted that heavy bureaucracy can dilute accountability and delay decisions. The review was part of a broader remediation process required by regulators. ^[15]

Shortly afterwards, CEO Nuno Matos told lawmakers that the bank needs a cultural overhaul, acknowledging that ANZ is “too complex” with too much duplication. ^[16]

Reuters reporting also highlights that: ^[17]

ASIC has brought 11 civil penalty cases against ANZ since 2016, with total penalties exceeding A$310 million.
The latest regulatory settlements and restructuring have contributed to that A$1.11 billion after‑tax profit hit in the second half of FY25.

TS2Tech’s 28 November article notes that ANZ is also operating under a court‑enforceable undertaking with APRA to improve non‑financial risk management, and that these issues are a key factor in how investors are pricing the stock. TS2 Tech

AGM and ESG resolutions in December

Looking ahead:

ANZ’s 2025 AGM is scheduled for 18 December 2025, and coverage suggests that shareholder resolutions on climate, deforestation and governance will be a focal point. TS2 Tech+1
Investor groups are likely to scrutinise lending to fossil‑fuel and deforestation‑linked industries, as well as progress on the bank’s ANZ 2030 targets. ^[18]

While these resolutions may not pass, strong support could influence ANZ’s future lending mix and brand perception, adding a qualitative layer to the investment thesis.

Analyst views and the dividend appeal

Broker and consensus signals

FNArena’s consolidated data (updated for 28 November) show: ^[19]

A consensus target price around A$33.52, implying roughly 3% downside from Friday’s A$34.64 close.
Forecast DPS of ~166 cents in FY25 and ~167 cents in FY26, implying essentially flat dividends year‑on‑year.
A forecast FY26 dividend yield of around 4.8%, based on current prices.

Among individual brokers, UBS stands out with a Sell rating and a A$30 target, roughly 13% below current levels, arguing that the FY25 result is a “reset” with elevated risks around restructuring and regulation. ^[20]

Other houses (e.g. Morgans, Macquarie, Citi) appear more neutral, but most recent broker commentary – as summarised in FNArena and other outlets – suggests that: ^[21]

Upside from here looks modest on consensus numbers, and
A lot now hinges on successful execution of ANZ 2030 and cost‑out plans.

Yield and passive‑income angle

Income‑focused coverage has leaned heavily into ANZ’s dividend story:

A 24 November article on The Motley Fool Australia notes that a hypothetical A$20,000 allocation to ANZ shares could generate roughly A$1,200 in annual cash dividends, assuming the 166c per‑share payout is maintained – before factoring in franking credits. ^[22]
FNArena’s yield statistics show a current yield just under 5% and a three‑year “yield on cost” for long‑term investors of around 6–7%, reflecting the impact of buying at lower prices earlier in the decade. ^[23]

In other words, the market does not see huge capital upside in the near term, but ANZ remains firmly on the radar of dividend investors.

How ANZ compares to other big four banks

Relative valuation is another theme in recent commentary:

A Firstlinks article comparing CBA with global banks notes that CBA trades at about 25.7x earnings, versus ~18.3x for ANZ, with NAB and Westpac in between. ^[24]
ETF holdings data (e.g. from Franklin’s FTSE Australia ETF and Vanguard high‑dividend funds) show ANZ as a core component of Australian financial sector exposure, alongside CBA, NAB, Westpac, Macquarie and the major insurers. ^[25]

This reinforces the idea that ANZ is cheaper than CBA on most metrics, but not dramatically cheaper than its other domestic peers.

Technical picture: still an uptrend, but off the highs

Technical analysis from MarketIndex’s ChartWatch ASX Scans earlier in November placed ANZ firmly in the “uptrend” list, with the stock trading around A$38.85, up about 21% over 12 months and more than 8% over the prior month at that time. ^[26]

Since then:

The share price has pulled back to the mid‑A$34s,
Volume has remained healthy, and
There’s no obvious breakdown below medium‑term support levels in the recent price history.

That aligns with the 28 November narrative: a consolidation within a longer‑term uptrend, rather than a confirmed reversal – but, as always, trend followers will be watching Monday’s open and early week price action closely.

Macro backdrop: New Zealand strength, rate‑cut hopes and bank regulation

A couple of macro threads matter for ANZ:

New Zealand economic pulse
ANZ’s own November 2025 ANZ Business Outlook survey shows: ^[27]
- The “own‑activity” outlook index at its highest level since 2014,
- Particularly strong readings for manufacturing and construction, and
- Improved export intentions, even if investment intentions lag somewhat.
That’s supportive for ANZ’s sizeable New Zealand franchise, suggesting a reasonably healthy operating backdrop across the Tasman.
Rates and housing
Markets have increasingly priced in global and local rate cuts for 2026, while Australia faces still‑sticky inflation and high household leverage. Recent APRA announcements tightening some macroprudential home‑loan settings from February 2026 have contributed to modest bank share volatility, with ANZ down slightly on the day of the announcement. ^[28]
Sector performance
Over the final week of November, banks lagged the broader ASX 200, which was driven instead by tech, consumer and materials stocks. ^[29]

For ANZ specifically, the takeaway is that macro conditions are not hostile, but regulatory and housing‑market cross‑currents keep the risk premium elevated.

Key things for investors to watch before the bell on 1 December

Putting the 28–30 November news and analysis together, here’s what’s likely to guide sentiment when trading resumes:

Dividend countdown
- The 83c final dividend is locked in for payment on 19 December. Yield‑oriented investors may continue to accumulate on dips, while others might take profits after the recent ex‑dividend volatility. ^[30]
Perception of ANZ 2030 execution risk
- The market has already priced in substantial cost savings and higher returns by 2030. Any new commentary – formal or via media leaks – on job cuts, Suncorp integration milestones or IT transformation could move the share price quickly. TS2 Tech+1
Regulatory drip‑feed
- Investors are highly sensitive to further APRA or ASIC announcements, or to political pressure following November’s parliamentary hearings into ANZ’s culture and misconduct history. ^[31]
AGM and ESG noise
- With the 18 December AGM approaching – and likely to feature climate, deforestation and governance resolutions – any pre‑AGM briefing materials or activist campaigns could shape how ESG‑aware investors position into year‑end. TS2 Tech+1
Short‑term trading ranges and algorithmic forecasts
- Quant‑style sites currently envisage ANZ oscillating in the low‑to‑mid A$30s in December, with no clear directional bias. That fits the recent consolidation around A$34–35. ^[32]

Bottom line on ANZ shares right now

As of the close on Friday 28 November 2025, and based on the news, forecasts and analysis published 28–30 November 2025, ANZ shares sit at an interesting balance point:

Pros for the bulls
- Solid capital position with CET1 around 12% and robust provisioning. ^[33]
- A fully maintained 166c dividend, giving a near‑5% cash yield (higher on a grossed‑up basis for many investors). ^[34]
- A credible plan to simplify the bank, integrate Suncorp, and lift returns via A$800m of cost cuts and synergy capture. TS2 Tech+1
- Share price still well above 2025 lows but below recent record highs, offering some valuation breathing room versus mid‑November.
Cons for the bears
- FY25 statutory profit is down 10% year‑on‑year, and earnings are still heavily affected by restructuring and regulatory costs. ^[35]
- A “good news” culture and complex bureaucracy have drawn criticism from regulators and reviewers, and fixing them will take time and money. ^[36]
- Consensus target prices cluster slightly below the current share price, and at least one major broker (UBS) has a Sell with a A$30 target. ^[37]
- Algorithmic forecasts and market commentators alike see limited near‑term upside, pointing instead to a period of consolidation.

For investors watching the open on 1 December 2025, ANZ looks like:

A high‑yield, systemically important bank in the middle of a deep transformation – priced roughly for “show me” execution rather than disaster or perfection.

Whether that’s attractive depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs. As always, this article is general information only, not personal financial advice. It’s worth considering your own circumstances or speaking to a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.