ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) Stock: Latest News, Share Price Drivers, Analyst Forecasts and Outlook (12 December 2025)

ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) is back in the headlines on 12 December 2025, with investors weighing a fresh legal dispute involving its former chief executive against the bank’s broader turnaround narrative: cost cuts, cultural remediation, and a tougher fight for mortgage market share in a lower-rate environment.

In afternoon trade, ANZ shares were around A$35.73, up about 1% on the day, after moving between A$35.36 and A$35.91. ^[1]

What’s happening with ANZ stock today: former CEO sues over bonus cut

The market-moving story on 12 December is that former ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott has commenced legal action in the NSW Supreme Court, arguing ANZ breached the contract governing his departure after the bank stripped him of A$13.5 million in bonuses. Reuters reported Elliott said he had a “clear, unambiguous” agreement with the bank and wants the matter heard quickly. ^[2]

ANZ has responded publicly and bluntly: it says it will defend the matter vigorously. ^[3]

The bank’s official ASX statement: CPS 511 front and centre

In its stock-exchange announcement dated 12 December, ANZ tied the remuneration decision to APRA’s Prudential Standard CPS 511, which requires banks to design pay in ways that encourage prudent risk management and link executive pay to performance and risk outcomes.

ANZ said the board determined that no Australian-based Group Executive would receive short-term variable remuneration (excluding executives in acting roles) and that some long-term variable remuneration due to vest to Elliott was adjusted down to zero for 2025 and 2026. ^[4]

This matters for shareholders because the lawsuit isn’t just tabloid-grade corporate drama—it cuts into the themes investors have been debating for months: governance, accountability, and how aggressively the board is willing to enforce consequences after a run of regulatory and conduct failings.

Governance pressure is building into the AGM and pay vote

The legal dispute lands right near ANZ’s annual meeting window, where executive pay is already a live wire.

On 4 December, Reuters reported Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommended shareholders vote against ANZ’s remuneration report, following Glass Lewis making a similar call earlier in the week. ^[5]

The criticism is essentially: yes, ANZ cut executive pay—big numbers were involved—but proxy advisers questioned whether the reductions were tough enough given the bank’s list of scandals and penalties. Reuters noted Elliott still retained about A$7.9 million of long-term incentive pay after the cuts. ^[6]

In Australia, a “strike” against the remuneration report can become a serious governance event if repeated, so the optics around the Elliott dispute and the board’s pay decisions are likely to remain a key near-term sentiment driver. ^[7]

The bigger backdrop: ANZ’s remediation era after record penalties

The Elliott lawsuit doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The reason ANZ’s board moved so hard on remuneration is the bank’s wider regulatory fallout.

In September, Reuters reported ANZ agreed to pay A$240 million—described as the corporate regulator’s largest-ever penalties against a single entity—over systemic failures that ranged from conduct around a government bond deal to charging fees to deceased customers. ^[8]

Reuters also reported ANZ said it expected to spend A$150 million in the financial year ending September 2026 implementing reforms, and that ASIC had brought 11 civil penalty proceedings against ANZ since 2016 with total penalties exceeding A$310 million. ^[9]

The market implication: ANZ investors aren’t just analysing the next quarter’s margin—they’re also pricing the risk of continued compliance costs, remediation spend, and reputation damage.

Earnings snapshot: profit down, margin pressure up, costs under the microscope

ANZ’s most recent full-year results (for the year ended 30 September 2025) set the financial tone heading into December.

Reuters reported ANZ posted cash profit of A$5.79 billion, down 14%, and flagged margin pressure while outlining plans to cut costs. ^[10]

A central issue is the tug-of-war between rates and competition:

Reuters reported ANZ’s net interest margin declined to 1.55%, with competition in home lending squeezing returns. ^[11]
The bank signalled a targeted 3% reduction in total costs for FY2026. ^[12]

ANZ also highlighted large one-off and restructuring-related impacts. Reuters reported a post-tax profit hit including costs tied to redundancies and penalties. ^[13]

The turnaround plan: simplify, cut costs, and integrate Suncorp Bank

Under CEO Nuno Matos (who took over in May 2025), ANZ has been positioning itself as a bank that can fix its own plumbing—fast.

Reuters reporting over the past two months has repeatedly emphasised three strategic levers:

Simplification and duplication removal
Matos has described ANZ as too complex with too much duplication, and said cultural change will take time. ^[14]
Workforce reduction and restructuring
ANZ has announced plans to cut 3,500 jobs. ^[15]
Suncorp Bank integration
Integration costs have been a recurring theme. Reuters reported ANZ took an after-tax charge tied to accelerating Suncorp Bank integration, alongside other technology modernisation and restructuring expenses. ^[16]

Separately, Reuters has also reported that ANZ paused its share buyback and tied future capital returns to capital ratios and the integration/efficiency agenda—including ambitions to materially lift cost savings related to the Suncorp deal. ^[17]

Culture and conduct: “good news” culture and ongoing regulator scrutiny

ANZ’s investment case in late 2025 is as much about non-financial risk as it is about credit growth.

In November, Reuters reported ANZ published a McKinsey review finding a “‘good news’ culture” that discouraged staff from speaking up, with bureaucracy hampering processes and accountability. ^[18]

A few days later, Reuters reported Matos told lawmakers ANZ needs a cultural overhaul, noting ongoing pressure from regulators and referencing repeated penalty proceedings over the years. ^[19]

For investors, these stories matter because cultural problems often show up later as operational losses, customer remediation costs, technology rework, and regulatory constraints—exactly the kind of “slow burn” expense that can quietly compress bank valuations.

The industry reality: a mortgage war under tighter regulatory watch

ANZ doesn’t operate in a calm pond; it operates in Australia’s very crowded mortgage market.

Reuters reported Australia’s banking regulator warned banks not to reduce lending standards to win market share, pointing to high household debt as a key vulnerability and highlighting faster growth in investor lending. ^[20]

Meanwhile, Reuters also reported Australia’s major banks have been pushing to shift more home lending into proprietary channels (and reduce reliance on brokers) to defend margins—important because brokers are estimated to write a very large share of new loans. ^[21]

Translation for ANZ shareholders: even if rates fall and credit growth improves, the regulator and competitive dynamics can cap how much of that upside turns into earnings.

Analyst forecasts and price targets: “near fair value” is the consensus vibe

So what do forecasts and broker-style consensus indicators suggest as of 12 December 2025?

The broad message across multiple market-data providers is that ANZ is trading close to consensus fair value, with a wide disagreement band around that midpoint:

Investing.com shows an average 12‑month price target around A$35.24, with a high estimate near A$40.40 and a low estimate around A$30, and an overall “Neutral” stance across the analysts it tracks. ^[22]
Stockopedia lists a consensus target price of A$35.34 and a forward EPS forecast of A$2.45 for the next financial year. ^[23]
MarketScreener similarly shows an average target around A$35.24 based on 14 analysts (as displayed on its platform). ^[24]
Simply Wall St noted analysts increased their price target to A$35.17 from A$34.24, citing improved margins and operational efficiency expectations, while also flagging ongoing sector challenges. ^[25]

The takeaway: the “middle-of-the-road” forecast is basically that ANZ is priced for competent execution—but not yet priced for a clean victory lap.

ANZ dividend and income outlook: still a major part of the thesis

For many investors, ANZ is an income stock first and a turnaround story second.

ANZ declared a final dividend of 83 cents per share, 70% franked, unchanged from the prior year, taking the full-year dividend to 166 cents. ^[26]

Dividend calendars published by market-data providers show the final dividend’s ex-date as 13 November 2025, with a payment date of 19 December 2025. ^[27]

Dividend yield estimates vary slightly by provider and timing, but several place the current yield around 4.7% based on prevailing prices. ^[28]

Leadership and sector positioning: Matos takes ABA chair role

One of the subtler “confidence signals” ANZ points to is sector leadership and agenda-setting.

Reuters reported on 3 December that Nuno Matos was named chair of the Australian Banking Association council, highlighting priorities including maintaining access to core banking services and strengthening safeguards against scams. ^[29]

This doesn’t change ANZ’s earnings tomorrow morning—but it does matter in a year where regulation, scams, consumer protection, and operational resilience remain front-page banking issues.

What investors are watching next

For ANZ share price watchers, the near-term catalysts after 12 December 2025 are unusually clear:

The Elliott lawsuit pathway
Whether the matter moves quickly, becomes a prolonged dispute, or settles will shape ongoing headlines and governance perceptions. ^[30]
AGM outcomes, especially the pay vote
With proxy advisers already urging a vote against the remuneration report, the AGM could become a sentiment event. ^[31]
Margin and mortgage competition trends
Investors will watch whether ANZ’s pricing discipline and channel strategy can stabilise margins while competition remains intense. ^[32]
Regulatory remediation and culture reforms
Progress here is hard to model—but markets punish negative surprises quickly when a bank is already under a microscope. ^[33]
Capital management and buyback optionality
ANZ’s stance on buybacks has been closely tied to capital ratios and strategic execution, so any change in tone can move the stock. ^[34]

Bottom line: ANZ is priced like a “prove it” turnaround

On 12 December 2025, ANZ stock sits in a classic “prove it” zone: dividend support and a credible cost-out narrative on one side; litigation headlines, governance pressure, and margin competition on the other.

Consensus targets clustering around the current share price suggest analysts want evidence—cleaner execution, fewer conduct surprises, and visible margin defence—before they’ll pay up for the next leg higher. ^[35]