ANZ Group Holdings Limited Stock (ASX: ANZ): $250m Federal Court Penalty, AGM Pay “Strike”, Dividend Paid

Updated 20 December 2025 (AEST).

ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX: ANZ) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with a rare mix of competing narratives: strong shareholder income (a final dividend just landed), a major strategic reset under new CEO Nuno Matos, and a heavy governance/regulatory overhang after a Federal Court-ordered A$250 million penalty tied to misconduct spanning both institutional markets activity and retail banking failures. ^[1]

For investors and would-be investors, the core question isn’t whether any one of these headlines matters — it’s which one matters most for ANZ stock from here: the earnings base and capital return story, or the operational, execution, and reputation risks that can change how the market values a bank.

ANZ share price on 20 December 2025: where the stock stands

As of 20 December 2025 (a Saturday, with markets closed), ANZ shares were around A$36.03 based on the most recent available pricing, following a marginal dip at the prior close. Trading ranges cited by market data providers put the recent day range around A$36.03–A$36.55, with a 52‑week range of A$26.22–A$38.93. ^[2]

That level matters because several widely-circulated valuation summaries (built from analyst consensus inputs) cluster fair value and target prices in the mid‑A$30s — implying the stock is neither screamingly cheap nor obviously expensive, depending on how much weight you put on near‑term risk versus multi‑year execution. ^[3]

The biggest headline: Federal Court orders A$250 million penalty against ANZ

On 19 December 2025, ASIC announced the Federal Court had ordered ANZ to pay A$250 million in combined penalties for “widespread misconduct and systemic risk failures,” calling it the largest combined penalties the regulator has secured against a single entity. ^[4]

What the penalty covered — and why investors care

ASIC said the outcome spans four separate court proceedings covering misconduct across ANZ’s institutional/markets operations and retail banking processes, with impacts on the Australian Government and “at least 65,000” retail customers. ^[5]

ASIC’s breakdown of the Court-ordered penalties was:

A$135 million for institutional and markets misconduct tied to management of a A$14 billion government bond deal and inaccurate reporting of secondary bond market turnover data (including a record A$80 million penalty for unconscionable conduct). ^[6]
A$40 million for failing to respond to customer hardship notices (in some cases for more than two years) and inadequate hardship processes. ^[7]
A$40 million for false/misleading statements about savings interest rates and failing to pay promised rates to tens of thousands of customers. ^[8]
A$35 million for failing to refund fees charged to deceased customers and failing to respond to estate-related requests within required timeframes. ^[9]

ASIC noted the judge increased the penalty for the bond turnover misreporting by A$10 million, taking that element to A$50 million. ^[10]

From an investing perspective, there are three immediate implications:

It’s financially manageable — but not “nothing.”
ANZ said the extra A$10 million (above the A$240 million it had agreed with ASIC) is “almost wholly covered” by existing provisions, including the A$240 million penalty provision already booked. ^[11]
The “non-financial risk” theme is now central to the valuation story.
Banks can recover from one-off costs; what markets struggle to tolerate is recurring remediation, repeat findings, and business constraints (for example, limits imposed by counterparties or regulators). ASIC explicitly pushed for an overhaul of ANZ’s non-financial risk management. ^[12]
Reputational damage can leak into growth and costs.
ASIC estimated the government bond trading misconduct could have cost up to A$26 million, and the court commentary (as relayed by ASIC) framed the behaviour as serious and deterrence-worthy — language that can linger in the market’s “trust discount” for years. ^[13]

ANZ’s response: remediation programs and independent review

ANZ’s post‑decision statement emphasised ongoing work to strengthen non‑financial risk management, including a “Root Cause Remediation Plan” and an “ASIC Matters Resolution Program” within Australia Retail. ^[14]

ABC also reported that ANZ indicated both programs would be reviewed by Promontory (an independent expert appointed to review and report on progress). ^[15]

For shareholders, the key practical issue is timeline: remediation is rarely a single quarter’s project. The market tends to re-rate banks upward only after a period of “quiet competence” — fewer nasty surprises, fewer negative findings, and more consistent execution.

AGM fallout: second strike on remuneration and a very loud message from shareholders

Only days before the Federal Court penalty headline, ANZ’s 2025 AGM delivered a governance warning flare.

Reuters reported that more than 32% of shareholders voted against ANZ’s executive pay report, marking a second consecutive strike under Australia’s “two strikes” rule. In response, CEO Nuno Matos said he would voluntarily give up his short‑term bonus for the year. ^[16]

A second strike triggers a “spill” resolution vote — effectively a vote on whether the board must stand for re-election. Multiple reports indicated the spill motion did not pass, meaning the board was not forced into re-election. ^[17]

Why the pay vote matters for ANZ stock

A remuneration strike isn’t just about pay quantum. It’s often a shorthand protest vote about:

accountability for regulatory failures,
leadership credibility during restructures, and
whether the board is moving fast enough to change culture and controls.

Reuters noted proxy advisers (including Glass Lewis and ISS) had urged shareholders to vote against the remuneration report, citing the run of scandals and perceived inadequacy of executive accountability. ^[18]

The Shayne Elliott lawsuit: a governance subplot that could keep running

Adding another layer to the AGM story, Reuters reported that former CEO Shayne Elliott initiated legal action against ANZ in the NSW Supreme Court over bonuses worth A$13.5 million that the board stripped as part of broader bonus reductions tied to the bank’s non‑financial risk issues. ANZ said it would defend the case. ^[19]

This doesn’t usually move bank earnings forecasts by itself, but it can keep governance concerns in the headlines — and headline risk is a real (if hard-to-model) input into how the market prices financial stocks.

Dividend watch: ANZ just paid its 2025 final dividend

For income-focused investors, ANZ’s dividend remains a major part of the “why own this” thesis.

ANZ paid a 2025 final dividend of 83 cents per share, partially franked at 70%, on 19 December 2025, with a 1.5% discount applied to the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) and Bonus Option Plan (BOP). ^[20]

In ANZ’s FY2025 results release (10 November 2025), the bank proposed that final dividend and stated the total full‑year dividend was 166 cents per share, partially franked at 70%. ^[21]

Dividend sustainability always comes back to two bank variables:

capital strength (how big the buffer is), and
earnings quality (how repeatable earnings are after adjusting for “significant items”).

On capital, ANZ reported a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of about 12.0% at FY2025, and also referenced a pro‑forma CET1 of 12.26% inclusive of a capital return from the non‑operating holding company to the bank. ^[22]

Fundamentals check: what ANZ’s FY2025 results said about earnings power

ANZ’s 2025 full‑year results (year ended 30 September 2025) showed headline profit pressure, but also a “cleaner” underlying picture once significant items were stripped out.

Key figures from ANZ’s FY2025 results release included:

Statutory profit:A$5,891 million (down 10% vs FY24). ^[23]
Cash profit:A$5,787 million (down 14% vs FY24). ^[24]
Cash profit excluding significant items:A$6,896 million (flat on prior year). ^[25]
Credit impairment charge:A$441 million for the full year. ^[26]

The bank explicitly linked margin pressure to “intense competition” and “a falling interest rate environment” in parts of the business — a reminder that even big banks can’t fully escape the physics of rate cycles and price wars. ^[27]

Strategy reset: ANZ 2030, simplification, and the Suncorp integration bet

Investors aren’t just buying ANZ’s next quarter — they’re buying (or selling) the idea that management can lift returns over a multi‑year window.

ANZ has been pushing its “ANZ 2030” strategy, framed around four pillars: Customer First, Simplicity, Resilience, and Delivering Value, plus cultural/people/technology “enablers.” ^[28]

Immediate priorities highlighted by ANZ include:

integrating Suncorp Bank faster,
accelerating ANZ Plus (digital front‑end) rollout,
reducing duplication and stopping non‑aligned initiatives, and
improving non‑financial risk management and accountability. ^[29]

In October, Reuters reported ANZ stopped the remaining A$800 million of a share buyback to conserve capital for the strategy overhaul, while maintaining the dividend and targeting A$800 million in pre‑tax cost savings in the financial year, as well as targeting a 12% return on tangible equity by 2028. ^[30]

This is the “bull case” in plain English: simplify the bank, fix controls, cut costs, integrate Suncorp, improve customer outcomes, and get paid (via dividends) while you wait.

The “bear case” is also plain: execution risk + ongoing remediation + margin pressure = a bank that stays stuck in the mid‑return zone, with periodic reputation hits.

Analyst forecasts and valuation: where expectations cluster right now

Consensus targets: mid‑A$30s, with a wide range

One snapshot of ANZ’s analyst consensus published this month showed:

12‑month price target average:A$35.24
High:A$40.00
Low:A$30.00
Consensus rating: Neutral, with a split across buys/holds/sells (4 buy, 7 hold, 3 sell in that compilation). ^[31]

Simply Wall St’s 20 December 2025 valuation note similarly referenced a narrative “fair value” around A$35.24 versus a last close of A$36.03, describing the stock as modestly above that fair value estimate and highlighting Suncorp integration and platform overhaul as key drivers — while flagging regulatory costs and execution risk as potential disruptors. ^[32]

A reminder: some services show outlier calls

TipRanks’ auto‑generated note on an ASX quotation application for new shares (issued under a distribution plan) cited a “Sell” rating with an A$32.57 price target from its “most recent analyst rating” listing. ^[33]

The takeaway isn’t that any single number is “the truth.” It’s that ANZ’s valuation debate is active — and the market is still pricing meaningful uncertainty around governance, margin trajectory, and delivery of the Matos-era reset.

The macro backdrop: rates are steady — but the next move is debated

Australian bank earnings are deeply sensitive to interest rates, funding costs, and competition for deposits and mortgages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 3.60% at its 9 December 2025 meeting. The RBA said inflation has fallen from its 2022 peak but had “picked up more recently,” and it highlighted uncertainty around the monthly CPI signal and upside risks to inflation. ^[34]

That matters for ANZ investors because:

a prolonged “hold” can keep margins under competitive pressure,
renewed hikes can raise funding and credit stress risks, and
cuts can compress margins unless loan growth and deposits offset the squeeze.

Market economists are divided on 2026, with at least one report noting major banks split between “on hold” and modest hikes scenarios — including ANZ economists expecting rates to remain at 3.6% over their forecast horizon (per that report). ^[35]

What to watch next for ANZ stock in early 2026

ANZ’s story into 2026 is likely to be decided less by one-off headlines and more by measurable progress. Investors will be watching:

Remediation progress and “quiet months.” Fewer negative findings, clear milestones, and credible independent oversight can reduce the “risk discount” that often attaches to banks with repeated issues. ^[36]
Execution on simplification and cost-out. ANZ has talked about simplification and cost savings; the market will look for evidence in cost lines and operational KPIs. ^[37]
Suncorp integration outcomes. Integration benefits can be real — but delays and tech complexity can also erase the “synergy” narrative fast. ^[38]
Dividend resilience and capital flexibility. With a full‑year dividend of 166c for FY2025 and CET1 around 12%, income investors will watch whether capital stays comfortably above regulatory needs while remediation and investment continue. ^[39]
Governance temperature. The second strike didn’t spill the board, but it signalled low tolerance for missteps — and the Elliott lawsuit keeps the pay/accountability theme alive. ^[40]

Bottom line: ANZ is priced like a bank with both a yield story and unfinished work

As of 20 December 2025, ANZ Group Holdings Limited stock sits at the intersection of “banking as usual” (dividends, capital, mortgage scale) and “banking as a trust business” (controls, culture, remediation, and governance).

The Federal Court’s A$250 million penalty is large in absolute terms, but it looks financially absorbable and largely provisioned. The bigger market question is whether the bank can translate its ANZ 2030 strategy into sustained improvement without fresh operational surprises. ^[41]

With consensus-style valuations clustering in the mid‑A$30s and the share price around A$36, ANZ is currently trading in a zone where execution matters more than narrative — and where each quarter of clean delivery can be worth more than another slide deck full of ambition. ^[42]