Sydney, Jan 17, 2026, 17:16 (AEDT) — The market has closed.
- ANZ shares climbed Friday as traders focused on next week’s Australia jobs report.
- Big banks have been shifting their stance amid changing rate forecasts and mixed signals on consumer demand.
- Thursday’s labour force report stands out as the next clear catalyst, coming just before the RBA’s early-February meeting.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd shares closed Friday 0.5% higher at A$37.52, wrapping up the week on a positive note. Trading picks back up Monday on the Australian Securities Exchange. 1
This shift is significant as bank stocks are once again heavily influenced by interest-rate expectations. Changes in investor sentiment about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next steps usually hit the majors fast, affecting both bank margins and loan demand.
ANZ offers a clear view of the domestic economy. If data shows households are still spending, bulls highlight credit growth. But when confidence dips, traders shift focus to signs of rising arrears and bad debts.
The broader market wrapped up the week higher, with the S&P/ASX 200 gaining 0.5%. Financials stood out as one of the stronger sectors. Commonwealth Bank edged up 0.7% in afternoon trade, while the banking sector rebounded 1.3% for the week after a 2.5% drop the week prior. Investors remain cautious on stretched valuations amid shifting policy expectations. ANZ economists highlighted solid household spending in November but noted weak confidence. Adam Boyton, ANZ’s head of Australian economics, said: “We expect to see a 20k increase in employment and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%.” 2
For ANZ, the short-term tug of war isn’t new. Rising rates boost bank earnings by widening the net interest margin—the difference between loan income and deposit costs—but they also risk dampening borrowing and putting pressure on households.
Next week’s labour market data will be crucial for more than just the top-line figures. A tight job market tends to push wages and prices higher, which directly influences how long policymakers maintain restrictive measures.
There’s a downside risk as well. Should the jobs report exceed expectations, traders could delay hopes for rate cuts, weighing on bank stocks due to valuation worries—even if the economy appears solid on the surface.
ANZ investors will be keeping an eye on global market moves. Strong bank earnings abroad can boost sentiment in the sector, but a swift shift in U.S. interest rate expectations often tightens financial conditions fast, impacting Australia as well.
The next key data drop is the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Labour Force, Australia (December 2025), due Jan. 22 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. This unemployment rate and participation report often shakes up bank stocks — sometimes hurting, sometimes helping. 3
Next up is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board meeting on Feb. 2–3, a key date for rate-sensitive stocks like ANZ. 4
