Sydney, January 26, 2026, 16:49 AEDT — Markets have closed.
- ANZ finished Friday at A$36.21, slipping 0.5% from its previous close.
- No trading took place in ASX cash equities on Monday due to the Australia Day public holiday.
- Wednesday’s inflation figures and the RBA’s early-February meeting are next up for investors to watch.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd shares ended Friday at A$36.21, slipping 19 cents or roughly 0.5% from Thursday’s finish, on volume near 3.9 million shares. The ASX was closed Monday for Australia Day, leaving the stock down about 3.5% over the week. 1
This is crucial since the next major move for Australia’s big banks will hinge on interest rates, not corporate news. When trading resumes Tuesday, the key question remains: will inflation and employment data keep the Reserve Bank of Australia cautious, or will they ease enough to hold policy steady?
For ANZ and its rivals — Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and National Australia Bank — earnings take a hit via net interest margin, the difference between what they earn on loans and pay out on deposits. The concept is straightforward, but the reality gets complicated, especially as mortgage competition intensifies and deposit costs soar.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the December 2025 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. A stronger-than-expected reading could push bond yields and rate forecasts higher, while a weaker figure might pull them down. Bank stocks often move in step with these shifts. 2
The RBA has set its next monetary policy meeting for Feb. 2–3, with the decision due at 2:30 p.m. on the final day, the central bank confirmed. Changes in their stance on inflation or the labour market could influence bank funding costs and loan pricing. 3
Investors are focusing on ANZ’s longer-term plan. In its October strategy update, the bank announced it will halt the final roughly A$800 million of its share buyback. It also plans to implement a 1.5% discount on the next two dividend reinvestment plans. Meanwhile, ANZ is speeding up the integration of Suncorp Bank and expanding the rollout of ANZ Plus. 4
The stock remains far from its peak. Over the last 52 weeks, ANZ has fluctuated between A$26.22 and A$38.93, holding a market cap near A$109 billion, per Investing.com. 5
The set-up runs both ways. Higher rates may boost margins but also tighten the screws on borrowers, raising bad-debt risk if unemployment climbs. At the same time, a sharp fall in rate expectations can hit bank earnings, despite potentially improving credit quality.
Economists are zeroing in on “trimmed mean” inflation — the RBA’s favored core measure that removes extreme price swings — as a key signal. Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia, told Reuters last week that “the magic number for trimmed mean inflation is 3.2%. Anything above that will warrant a hike when the RBA board next meets in early February.” 6
ANZ shareholders have Tuesday marked on their calendars, but the real focus is Wednesday’s CPI data drop at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. Then eyes shift to the RBA’s Feb. 3 policy decision.
