Sydney, Jan 13, 2026, 17:19 AEDT — The market has closed.
- ANZ Group Holdings closed 1.6% higher at A$36.48, with intraday moves ranging from A$35.76 to A$36.50.
- Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating on ANZ, setting a target of A$36, and warned that bank returns might diverge significantly again in 2026.
- Attention shifts to Australia’s CPI report due Jan. 28, with the RBA’s Feb. 2–3 meeting in the spotlight amid growing rate-hike speculation.
ANZ Group Holdings Limited shares ended Tuesday up 1.6%, closing at A$36.48. Investors reacted to a new Morgan Stanley report that singled out the bank as a contender for another year of strong returns among Australia’s big banks.
Why it matters now: bank stocks have shifted focus back to interest rates, as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate sits at 3.6% following three cuts last year. The buzz is now swirling around whether the next move will be an increase rather than another cut.
A Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey revealed a 1.7% drop in consumer sentiment this January. Westpac’s Matthew Hassan pointed to changing rate expectations as the key factor behind the decline.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.56% higher in Sydney. Among the major banks, NAB surged 1.85%, Westpac climbed 1.10%, and Commonwealth Bank edged up 0.48%, market data showed.
Morgan Stanley highlighted that the performance gap between the top and bottom major banks has exceeded 10% in 23 of the last 25 years and warned it could surpass 20% in 2026, citing that these lenders are at varying stages in their strategy cycles.
For ANZ, the broker highlighted a “comprehensive and credible” new strategy and noted its valuation comes at a discount to NAB and Westpac — reflected in a cheaper price-to-earnings multiple, which compares share price to profits. They also flagged ANZ’s lower exposure to a long pause in interest rates or additional RBA hikes. MarketScreener
Morgan Stanley maintained its equal-weight rating on ANZ, signaling a hold, and held firm on a A$36 target price, just under Tuesday’s closing level.
On Monday, ANZ broadened its tie with Tennis Australia, stepping up as the official bank of the Australian Open and introducing the “ANZ Arena” at Melbourne & Olympic Park. “Our partnership is about creating opportunities for Australians to celebrate sport at its best,” said ANZ group executive Mark Whelan. ANZ
The bank filed a change of director’s interest notice on Monday as part of its routine disclosures. On Tuesday, it issued NZX notices detailing a cessation of securities and updates to unquoted securities.
There is a clear risk here. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could push expectations toward a February rate hike by the RBA. That would raise the odds of tighter financial conditions and increased pressure on borrowers. Meanwhile, ANZ is still under the microscope over non-financial risk controls after a Federal Court slapped a A$250 million penalty on the bank last December.
Traders are eyeing the ABS CPI data set for Jan. 28, right before the RBA’s monetary policy meeting on Feb. 2–3. As for ANZ, the company’s half-year earnings report is lined up for May 7.
