Updated December 3, 2025
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is ending 2025 with its stock back in full spotlight. Shares are trading in the mid‑$280s after hitting a new all‑time intraday high around $287.40 this week, capping a seven‑day winning streak and pushing year‑to‑date gains into the mid‑teens. [1]
Behind the move: a powerful iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, record earnings, a nearly unprecedented pace of share buybacks — and, on today’s tape, a major EU court ruling that opens the door to a large App Store damages claim in the Netherlands. [2]
Below is a detailed look at today’s most important news, forecasts and analyses on Apple stock.
Apple stock today: price, momentum and valuation
As of Wednesday, AAPL is changing hands around the high‑$280s per share, just below its new intraday record near $287.40 set on December 2. [3]
Over the past several weeks:
- Since October 10, Apple shares have climbed roughly 16%, outpacing most of the “Magnificent Seven” peers aside from Alphabet and beating the broader market by about 12 percentage points. [4]
- The rally coincides with iPhone 17 strength and renewed enthusiasm for Apple’s earnings power, even as investors debate the longer‑term impact of its AI strategy. [5]
On valuation, multiple data providers now place Apple’s trailing P/E ratio near 38×, above both its own long‑term average and the broader market: [6]
- P/E (TTM): ~38
- Revenue FY 2025: about $416 billion
- Net income FY 2025: about $112 billion [7]
Apple also now sits in the $4+ trillion market‑cap club, having first crossed that threshold in late October amid strong iPhone demand. [8]
iPhone 17 super‑cycle: IDC sees record shipments in 2025
Today’s most bullish storyline for Apple is the iPhone 17 cycle.
Fresh data from IDC, highlighted in multiple reports this week, suggest: [9]
- Apple is on track to ship about 247.4 million iPhones in 2025,
- That’s roughly 6.1% year‑over‑year unit growth,
- With global smartphone revenue from Apple projected above $261 billion in 2025, up about 7.2% YoY,
- Driven largely by iPhone 17 adoption and especially strong demand in China, where IDC sees Q4 2025 iPhone sales up roughly 17% YoY.
This marks Apple’s best iPhone year ever in volume terms and a sharp break from several years of low‑single‑digit growth. Barron’s notes that analysts are now modeling double‑digit iPhone revenue growth in the holiday quarter, around +11%, thanks to the 17 lineup’s strength. [10]
However, IDC also warns that 2026 could see a mild hangover:
- The global smartphone market is expected to contract about 0.9% in 2026,
- Apple’s iOS shipments could dip roughly 4% next year, partly because the base‑model iPhone 18 launch may shift from fall 2026 into early 2027. [11]
In other words, 2025 looks like the peak of this particular super‑cycle, with 2026 potentially bringing a more muted backdrop unless new products or AI features re‑accelerate demand.
Earnings and fundamentals: record Q4, services and AI
Apple’s latest results are the backbone of the bull case.
Independent analyses of Apple’s fiscal Q4 2025 (the September quarter) show: [12]
- Revenue: about $102.5 billion, up ~7.9% YoY, a new Q4 record.
- Gross margin: roughly 47%, at the high end of guidance.
- Net income: around $27.5 billion, up more than 80% YoY (boosted by easy comps and margin expansion).
- Full‑year 2025 revenue: about $416 billion, +6–7% YoY.
- Full‑year 2025 net income: roughly $112 billion, almost 20% growth. [13]
Crucially, Services — including the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, TV+, and advertising — now contribute an outsized share of profits:
- One Q4 breakdown argues that Services overtook iPhone as Apple’s largest profit contributor for the first time, thanks to higher margins and rapid growth. [14]
- This matters because Services revenue tends to be more recurring and less cyclical than hardware.
Analysts also point to Apple’s AI and custom silicon strategy as a supporting pillar. A recent earnings‑focused note argued that Apple’s in‑house chips and new “Apple Intelligence” features across iPhone, Mac and Vision Pro “position it for sustained FY2026 growth,” even if the company’s AI marketing has lagged some rivals. [15]
New headline risk: Dutch App Store antitrust lawsuit
The biggest new risk story today is legal.
On December 2, the EU Court of Justice ruled that Dutch courts can hear antitrust claims against Apple over its App Store fees, rejecting Apple’s jurisdictional objections. [16]
Key points from today’s coverage: [17]
- Two Dutch non‑profit foundations — Stichting Right to Consumer Justice and Stichting App Stores — are suing Apple, alleging that App Store commissions of 15–30% constitute an abuse of dominance that harmed Dutch consumers.
- The case is being brought under the Dutch Collective Damages Act (WAMCA), which allows foundations to pursue opt‑out style collective actions for large groups of consumers, subject to tight representativeness and funding rules.
- Reports put the potential damages claim around €637 million (about $690 million), though any figure will depend on future court findings. [18]
- The case will be heard by the Netherlands Commercial Court, and any eventual judgment could be enforceable across the EU under the Brussels I Recast rules — raising the stakes for Apple’s App Store model. [19]
This Dutch action lands on top of a broader European crackdown:
- In April 2025, the European Commission formally found that Apple violated the Digital Markets Act (DMA) by restricting developers’ ability to steer users to alternative payment options, opening the door to significant fines and mandated changes to App Store rules. [20]
- Germany’s competition authority has also moved against Apple’s App Tracking Transparency framework, arguing that it may give Apple an unfair advantage in ads by restricting rivals more than its own services. [21]
For shareholders, the takeaway is not an immediate hit to earnings, but a slow‑burn risk to Apple’s high‑margin Services revenue if regulators force lower fees or more open payment systems.
Record buybacks and modest dividend: how Apple returns cash
Apple remains the world champion of share buybacks, and this is a core part of many bullish valuation arguments.
Recent data show: [22]
- In May 2025, Apple’s board authorized a new $100 billion share‑repurchase program — the second‑largest in history.
- Apple has repurchased roughly $705 billion of its own stock over the past decade, more than the entire market value of almost any company outside the trillion‑dollar elite.
- In the last four reported quarters, Apple spent about $20–26 billion per quarter on buybacks, with $20.1 billion repurchased in the quarter ending September 30, 2025, and roughly $95 billion over full‑year 2024. [23]
These buybacks shrink the share count and amplify earnings per share, helping support the stock price even when revenue growth moderates.
On top of buybacks, Apple pays a modest dividend:
- Indicated yield: around 0.36%. [24]
- Annual payout: roughly $1.04 per share, typically split into quarterly payments (recently about $0.26 per share). [25]
- Apple has increased its dividend for 14 consecutive years, though growth has been slow compared with the scale of buybacks. [26]
For income‑focused investors, the dividend is more of a symbolic “sweetener.” The real capital return engine is the enormous, persistent repurchase program.
Big‑money moves: Berkshire trims, others rotate
One theme in recent Apple coverage is what large institutional investors are doing.
The most important player, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, has been steadily cutting its Apple stake:
- As of September 30, 2025, Berkshire had reduced its holding to about 238 million shares, down from roughly 280 million in the prior quarter and from a peak of over 900 million shares several years ago. [27]
- Despite selling ~$10–11 billion worth of Apple stock in that quarter alone, Apple still remains Berkshire’s largest single holding, valued around $60–61 billion in the latest filing. [28]
Buffett’s team has redeployed some capital into Alphabet (Google), building a new stake of roughly $4–5 billion, a sign that even traditionally conservative value investors are rotating exposures within mega‑cap tech. [29]
At the same time, smaller institutions and funds continue to add or trim around the edges — recent 13F updates show some mid‑sized advisory firms increasing Apple positions while others take profits after the run‑up, but these moves are minor compared with Berkshire’s. [30]
The market’s read: Buffett’s sales reinforce the “richly valued” narrative, but the fact that Apple is still his biggest holding signals he hasn’t lost fundamental faith in the business.
Street view: latest analyst ratings and price targets
Despite the strong rally and rich valuation, Wall Street remains broadly positive on Apple — but with limited upside implied from here.
Recent consensus snapshots:
- StockAnalysis: 26 covering analysts, Buy rating, average 12‑month target $275.87 (slight downside vs. current price), with a range from $160 to $325. [31]
- MarketBeat: 37 analysts, “Moderate Buy”, average target $278.53, high $345, low $170, implying about –2–3% downside from recent levels. [32]
- TipRanks: average target around $289.5, suggesting a very modest ~2% upside from today’s price. [33]
Individual calls around today’s newsflow include: [34]
- J.P. Morgan reiterating Overweight and a $305 target on December 1, citing strong iPhone 17 lead times into the holidays.
- Wedbush sticking with a $310 target, arguing that Apple is in the early stages of a multi‑year iPhone and AI‑driven cycle.
- Loop Capital lifting its target to $325 earlier in the rally, framing Apple’s march toward — and beyond — the $4T club as driven by sustained device and Services growth.
The message from the sell‑side:
Apple is still a high‑quality compounder, but after the recent surge, much of the near‑term good news appears priced in, and future gains will depend on whether earnings can keep compounding fast enough to justify a P/E around the high‑30s.
Intel manufacturing rumors: a hint of future supply‑chain shifts
Another storyline intersecting with Apple today isn’t about Apple directly but about Intel.
Several reports this week say Intel shares spiked more than 8% on rumors it may win a role manufacturing Apple’s lower‑end M‑series chips as early as 2027, based on commentary from well‑known supply‑chain analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo. [35]
Apple has not confirmed these talks, and any deal would be years away. But if it happens, it would:
- Give Apple a second foundry source beyond TSMC, reducing geopolitical and supply concentration risk;
- Potentially influence margin structure and bargaining power in its chip supply chain;
- Offer Intel a marquee customer as it builds out its contract foundry business.
For now, investors are treating this as an option on future flexibility, not a near‑term earnings driver.
Key opportunities and risks heading into 2026
Putting all of today’s news and recent analyses together, Apple’s setup going into 2026 looks like a mix of powerful tailwinds and very real risks.
Bullish drivers
- iPhone 17 super‑cycle
- IDC and others now see record iPhone shipments in 2025 and strong pricing power, especially in China, where Q4 growth is running well ahead of prior expectations. [36]
- High‑margin Services & ecosystem
- Services are growing faster than hardware and carry much higher margins, increasingly underpinning Apple’s earnings base. [37]
- AI & custom silicon
- Apple’s tight hardware–software integration, on‑device AI push and vertical chip strategy give it a defensible niche in the AI boom, even if it’s not leading with flashy cloud models. [38]
- Massive cash returns
- A combination of $90–100B+ in annual buybacks and a growing (if still modest) dividend continue to funnel Apple’s cash pile back to shareholders. [39]
- Index and ETF dominance
- With a market value well above $4 trillion, Apple’s weight in major indices and ETFs gives it structural support in bull markets — flows into passive funds naturally allocate large chunks into the stock. [40]
Risk factors to watch
- Valuation stretch
- A P/E near 38× puts Apple at a premium to both its own history and many peers. If growth disappoints, that multiple could compress, amplifying stock downside even if earnings remain solid. [41]
- Regulatory overhang in Europe and India
- The new Dutch class‑action case, DMA enforcement, and parallel disputes in markets like India all raise the risk that Apple’s App Store economics will face structural pressure. [42]
- Post‑super‑cycle slowdown
- IDC’s forecast for a flat‑to‑down smartphone market in 2026 and a possible dip in iOS unit shipments after the iPhone 17 peak suggests growth may moderate once today’s super‑cycle wanes. [43]
- Berkshire de‑risking
- Continued selling from Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t change Apple’s fundamentals, but it can weigh on sentiment and remove a long‑time “anchor buyer” from the market. [44]
- Macro and AI‑bubble risk
- Apple now sits at the center of a market heavily influenced by AI optimism and mega‑cap dominance. Any broad de‑rating of this “AI bubble” cohort could hit Apple even if its own execution is strong. [45]
What today’s news means for Apple investors
Taken together, December 3, 2025 finds Apple stock at a crossroads:
- The fundamental story — record iPhone volumes, expanding Services, powerful custom silicon and AI capabilities — looks stronger than it has in several years. [46]
- The valuation now assumes that strength continues, with the stock priced as a premium compounder rather than a bargain. [47]
- The legal and regulatory backdrop is getting more complicated, especially in Europe and India, and could nibble at the very Services profits that investors prize. [48]
For short‑term traders, that combination can mean higher volatility as each new data point about iPhone shipments, AI features, or court rulings moves a richly valued stock.
For long‑term holders, Apple still looks like a cash‑rich, ecosystem‑driven giant with powerful competitive advantages — but one where the market is no longer giving much of a discount for future execution risk.
Important: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Apple stock, like any equity, can be volatile and may not be appropriate for every investor. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.macrotrends.net, 7. leverageshares.com, 8. finance.yahoo.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. leverageshares.com, 13. leverageshares.com, 14. leverageshares.com, 15. leverageshares.com, 16. coincentral.com, 17. coincentral.com, 18. www.webpronews.com, 19. coincentral.com, 20. ec.europa.eu, 21. apple.gadgethacks.com, 22. www.apple.com, 23. www.financecharts.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. investor.apple.com, 26. investor.apple.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.tipranks.com, 34. finviz.com, 35. somoshermanos.mx, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. leverageshares.com, 38. leverageshares.com, 39. www.financecharts.com, 40. companiesmarketcap.com, 41. www.macrotrends.net, 42. coincentral.com, 43. www.investopedia.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. en.wikipedia.org, 46. leverageshares.com, 47. public.com, 48. coincentral.com
