Published: November 16, 2025
Quick take: Apple (AAPL) heads into Monday’s U.S. session with fresh headlines on a smartwatch lawsuit, CEO succession chatter, a China iPhone sales pop, evolving App Store rules in the EU, and a clearer (if still cautious) AI roadmap. Add in a busy macro week and lingering big‑money positioning, and it’s a consequential open for the world’s most widely held stock.
1) Where AAPL stands after Friday’s close
Apple ended Friday, Nov. 14, at $272.41 (market cap about $3.01T, trailing P/E ~30.3). Those levels set the reference point for any pre‑market moves on Monday.
2) Legal overhang: $634M Masimo verdict + renewed watch import review
A federal jury said Apple must pay $634 million to Masimo in a patent fight tied to Apple Watch features. Apple plans to appeal. Separately, the U.S. International Trade Commission opened a new proceeding to decide whether Apple’s redesigned watches should face another import ban in the dispute. Both threads keep wearables risk on the table this week. 1
3) Succession watch: Report says CEO planning intensifies
Apple has stepped up succession planning for CEO Tim Cook, with hardware chief John Ternus widely viewed as a leading contender, according to the Financial Times as summarized by Reuters. Apple hasn’t commented, but leadership headlines can sway mega‑cap sentiment near the open. 2
4) Demand pulse: China iPhone 17 launch lifted sales
First‑month China iPhone sales rose 22% year over year after the iPhone 17 launch, per Counterpoint data reported by Reuters. That’s a supportive datapoint heading into the holiday quarter, even as broader China smartphone demand remains soft. 3
5) App Store and EU scrutiny: Policy tweaks keep coming
- Apple cut App Store commissions to 15% for “mini apps” embedded in larger hosts if developers adopt certain Apple technologies—changes that matter most in China’s WeChat‑style ecosystem. 4
- In Europe, Apple is contending with a fresh antitrust complaint under the DMA and says lower developer fees haven’t flowed through to end‑user prices—both issues the Commission is reviewing. Expect headlines around compliance and possible penalties. 5
6) AI roadmap: Gemini in the mix; some features slip to 2026
Apple is poised to use Google’s Gemini to power an upgraded Siri, per Bloomberg reporting echoed by Reuters—framing a near‑term bridge while Apple builds more in‑house capability. Meanwhile, some Apple Intelligence/Siri upgrades are targeted for 2026, so investors will parse execution vs. expectations. 6
7) Ownership flows: Berkshire trims Apple again
Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F showed it sold more Apple—down to ~238.2M shares from 280M—while initiating a $4.3B Alphabet stake. Apple remains Berkshire’s largest holding by value, but continued trimming is a notable institutional signal. 7
8) Results recap and cash returns: Record quarter, dividend paid
For fiscal Q4 (September quarter), Apple posted $102.5B revenue (+8% y/y) and $1.85 EPS (adjusted), with iPhone and Services at records. The $0.26 dividend was paid Nov. 13 (record date Nov. 10), so no near‑term dividend catalyst Monday. 8
9) Supply chain & silicon: 2nm timing, India ramp
Apple’s chip partner TSMC reiterated 2nm volume production in H2 2025—a key milestone for future iPhone/Mac performance and efficiency. In parallel, Apple’s manufacturing shift toward India continues to build capacity, a longer‑term margin and resilience lever. 9
10) Macro this week: Fed minutes and delayed data drip
With the U.S. government reopen and data releases catching up, Fed minutes on Wednesday loom large for rates and megacap duration trades like AAPL. Markets are debating whether the Fed pauses further cuts, and any shift in tone can sway risk appetite into year‑end. 10
What could move Apple at Monday’s open (Nov. 17)
- Follow‑through from the Masimo verdict/ITC review as investors handicap worst‑case watch scenarios. 1
- Leadership chatter and any weekend follow‑ups around succession. 2
- China read‑throughs: if new sell‑through checks echo the +22% first‑month data. 3
- Policy headlines: EU DMA compliance, App Store economics, and whether “mini app” commission moves signal further revenue‑share flexibility. 4
- AI expectations: Any confirmation or pushback around a Gemini‑powered Siri and 2026 timing for marquee features. 6
The bottom line
Apple enters the week with supportive China iPhone data, a solid fundamental base from record September‑quarter results, and a clearer—if externally assisted—AI story. Offsetting that, the Masimo verdict/ITC review and EU DMA oversight keep legal and regulatory risks front‑of‑mind. With AAPL near the $270s and macro tone in flux ahead of Fed minutes, expect headlines—not just fundamentals—to steer the pre‑market narrative on November 17, 2025. 1
