U.S. markets reopen Friday, December 26, 2025, after the Christmas Day closure—with a full trading session despite the federal government being closed. [1]
For Apple investors, that means the first “normal” read on Apple Inc. (AAPL) after a holiday-thinned stretch (early close on Dec. 24, closed Dec. 25) will arrive into a news cycle dominated by App Store regulation, fresh China iPhone shipment data, and Wall Street’s increasingly AI-driven 2026 narrative. [2]
Below is what matters most before the bell.
The 30-second read: what to know about Apple stock (AAPL) for Dec. 26
- AAPL last traded around $273.81 (latest quote timestamped Dec. 24). That puts Apple close to the middle of its most recent daily range and not far from recent highs, keeping valuation and expectations in focus. [3]
- Regulatory pressure on Apple’s Services “engine” is escalating globally, with new or newly emphasized developments in Brazil, Italy, Japan, and the EU all hitting within days. [4]
- China demand signals turned more supportive: November foreign-branded phone shipments in China more than doubled year over year, according to CAICT data reported Dec. 25—often read as constructive for iPhone momentum. [5]
- AI remains the swing narrative into 2026: Apple has acknowledged delays to some Siri AI upgrades until 2026, and Reuters has reported (via Bloomberg) that Apple plans to use a large Google AI model to help power a Siri revamp. [6]
- Analyst targets have been moving up into year-end: Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $315, Evercore to $325, and Wedbush has been among the most bullish at $350—while other houses remain more cautious. [7]
Where Apple stock stands heading into Friday’s open
As of the most recently available quote (timestamped Dec. 24), Apple traded around $273.81, up modestly versus the prior close, with an intraday band that recently sat roughly in the low-to-mid $270s.
Two context points matter for Friday:
- Holiday liquidity can distort moves. The post-Christmas session is often associated with lighter participation until the first full week of January, which can amplify reactions to headlines—especially for mega-cap names that anchor major indexes. [8]
- Dec. 26 has a “seasonal tailwind” reputation—but it’s not a rule. MarketWatch cited Bespoke data showing Dec. 26 has historically been one of the most reliably positive days on the calendar for the S&P 500, and it falls within the “Santa Claus rally” window. That can influence sentiment even if it doesn’t drive fundamentals. [9]
The biggest Apple headline bucket: App Store regulation is accelerating (Brazil, Italy, Japan, EU)
If you’re trying to understand what could move AAPL on Dec. 26, start with Apple’s Services narrative—and especially the App Store. In the past 10 days, Apple has faced multiple jurisdiction-specific shifts that investors will increasingly group into one theme: the “walled garden” is being legislated open. [10]
Brazil: Apple agrees to allow third‑party app stores and alternative payments (deadline: 105 days)
Reuters reported that Apple reached an agreement with Brazil’s antitrust regulator CADE to allow third-party app stores and alternative payment processing on iOS in Brazil, settling a three-year probe triggered by a 2022 complaint from MercadoLibre. Apple must implement changes within 105 days, and the agreement runs three years, with potential non-compliance fines up to 150 million reais (about $27 million). [11]
Why it matters for AAPL:
- Investors typically treat Services as a margin stabilizer. Any structural change that normalizes alternative stores, link-outs, or payment rails invites questions about take rates, compliance costs, and how “global” these carve-outs become over time. [12]
Italy: antitrust fine over App Tracking Transparency (ATT)
Reuters reported Italy’s competition authority (AGCM) fined Apple €98.6 million for alleged abuse of dominance tied to how ATT was implemented, arguing Apple applied stricter privacy conditions to third-party developers than to itself. Apple said it would appeal. [13]
Important nuance: ATT is privacy-branded, but regulators are increasingly framing implementation details as competitive conduct, not just product design—so this can remain a recurring headline risk. [14]
Japan: iOS opens to alternative app stores under the Mobile Software Competition Act
Reuters reported Apple opened iPhones in Japan to alternative app stores to comply with new rules aimed at boosting smartphone competition—under Apple’s new approach, Japanese developers can launch their own marketplaces and pay Apple commissions that can be as low as 5% on sales through those marketplaces. [15]
Apple’s own newsroom announcement confirms changes in Japan to comply with the Mobile Software Competition Act (MSCA), including options for alternative marketplaces and payment processing outside Apple In‑App Purchase (with Apple emphasizing security controls). [16]
Why it matters for AAPL:
- Japan adds another major economy to the list of regions where Apple is operating “special regimes.” Investors will debate whether these remain isolated compliance zones—or become templates elsewhere. [17]
EU: developers push regulators, arguing Apple’s revised fee structure still violates the DMA
Reuters reported app developers urged the EU to act on Apple’s fee practices, arguing Apple’s revised terms still violate the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Reuters described fee ranges Apple introduced in response to EU decisions—13% for smaller businesses up to 20%, plus additional penalties on external transactions in some cases. [18]
Why it matters for AAPL:
- The EU remains the world’s most aggressive large-market App Store regulator. Persistent disputes increase the risk of additional enforcement, remedies, or business model concessions that investors may begin to discount into Services growth assumptions. [19]
China demand watch: fresh shipment data and iPhone 17 momentum
While regulation is the headline risk, demand is the earnings driver—and the newest China datapoint broke in Apple’s favor.
November China data: foreign-branded shipments more than doubled year over year
Reuters reported that foreign-branded phone shipments in China jumped 128.4% year over year in November, citing data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT). [20]
Markets usually interpret that as constructive for Apple because iPhone is the dominant “foreign brand” in the China premium tier, even though the data itself is category-level. [21]
October momentum: Apple hit 25% share in China on iPhone 17 demand
Reuters previously reported Apple captured 25% of China’s smartphone market in October 2025, citing Counterpoint Research and pointing to strong demand for iPhone 17 variants. [22]
And Reuters also reported earlier that iPhone 17 sales outperformed the prior series in early U.S. and China sales comparisons, with demand skewing toward higher-margin Pro models, which is particularly relevant to gross margin narratives. [23]
Why this matters for the Dec. 26 trade:
- Apple’s next earnings report will cover the holiday quarter (Apple’s fiscal Q1), where China + iPhone mix + Services attach often define the tone. Stronger China signals can counterbalance regulatory anxiety—at least temporarily. [24]
The 2026 swing factor: Siri, Apple Intelligence, and the AI execution question
Apple stock’s multiple in late 2025 has increasingly been debated through an AI lens: not just “does Apple have AI,” but can Apple monetize AI without undermining margins or privacy positioning.
Key, verified milestones investors keep referencing:
- Apple said some AI improvements to Siri were delayed to 2026 (reported by Reuters in March). [25]
- Reuters also reported (via Bloomberg) that Apple plans to use a 1.2 trillion‑parameter AI model from Google to help power a Siri revamp, with a reported payment framework under discussion. [26]
- Reuters reported Apple named Amar Subramanya as the new VP of AI, replacing long-time AI leader John Giannandrea, who is expected to advise until retirement in spring. [27]
What to watch here before the open:
- Any incremental reporting on timelines (March/April 2026 is frequently cited by market commentary) can move sentiment—even if it doesn’t change near-term earnings. [28]
- AI headlines can also interact with regulation: Apple often positions platform control as a privacy and safety feature; regulators often frame it as market power. The tension between those narratives is becoming a core part of the 2026 setup. [29]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is modeling now
AAPL’s late-December conversation is not just “news”—it’s expectations. Several banks and research shops updated targets this month, reflecting either iPhone/Services momentum or a belief that AI becomes a catalyst in 2026.
Recent notable price-target moves
- Morgan Stanley raised its Apple price target to $315 from $305 while maintaining an Overweight rating, with commentary that includes offsetting margin pressure from memory input costs with higher revenue expectations and pricing power. [30]
- Evercore ISI raised its target to $325 from $300 and reiterated an Outperform rating, explicitly framing upcoming AI/Siri developments as a potential catalyst. [31]
- Wedbush (Dan Ives) has been among the most bullish, pointing to a $350 target and tying the upside case to iPhone demand and a stronger AI monetization narrative. [32]
Where “consensus” sits (and why it varies by source)
Consensus targets differ depending on how many analysts a dataset includes and how frequently it refreshes. One widely followed compilation shows:
- average price target around the high $280s, with a wide range from roughly $200 to $350 and a general “Buy” consensus. [33]
The takeaway: even after a strong run into year-end, many analysts still model modest upside from current levels—while the bull case concentrates around AI + iPhone cycle strength, and the bear case concentrates around regulatory take-rate pressure + premium valuation. [34]
The next major catalyst date: Apple earnings (late January)
If you’re positioning around near-term catalysts, the next “hard event” on the calendar is earnings.
- Nasdaq shows Apple is estimated to report earnings on Jan. 29, 2026 (noting the date is algorithm-derived when not officially confirmed). [35]
- Multiple market calendars also point to Jan. 29, 2026 as the expected date, and Zacks’ preview data references an EPS expectation around $2.65 for the next report. [36]
Between now and then, investors tend to trade Apple on:
- iPhone demand indicators (especially China),
- Services and App Store trajectory,
- margin signals (components like memory),
- and any credible AI timeline updates. [37]
What could move AAPL the most on Friday, Dec. 26
Because no major U.S. economic data is expected on Dec. 26 (per Kiplinger’s week-ahead calendar coverage), Apple may trade more directly off headlines and market positioning than macro prints. [38]
Here are the most plausible move-drivers into the open:
- Follow-through (or reversal) from the App Store regulation cluster
Investors may re-price the probability that Brazil/Japan-style openings become more common—and whether those openings pressure commissions or simply re-route them. [39] - China demand interpretation
The CAICT shipment surge headline broke on Dec. 25, when U.S. markets were closed. Dec. 26 is the first chance for broad price discovery on that specific datapoint. [40] - AI positioning into 2026 (sentiment trade)
Any incremental reporting around Siri’s revamp, partners, or leadership execution can move the stock even without new financials—because the bull case increasingly relies on a credible AI contribution to upgrades or Services. [41] - Year-end flows and the “Santa Claus rally” narrative
Dec. 26’s seasonal reputation can impact broad risk appetite, which matters for index-heavy, mega-cap names like Apple. [42]
Risks investors are debating right now
Even with supportive demand indicators, Apple heads into 2026 with real cross-currents:
Regulation risk isn’t a one-off anymore
Italy’s fine over ATT, Japan’s MSCA-driven openings, Brazil’s CADE settlement, and ongoing EU disputes collectively suggest Apple’s platform rules will remain under active scrutiny across multiple regions. [43]
2026 smartphone unit growth could soften, even if revenue holds up
Reuters reported IDC expects global smartphone shipments to dip in 2026 as memory costs rise, and also highlighted risks tied to product timing decisions (including expectations around entry-level model timing) that could affect iOS shipment volumes. [44]
Margin sensitivity (memory costs) is back in the conversation
Morgan Stanley’s target hike came alongside discussion that higher memory input costs could pressure gross margin—partly offset by higher revenue expectations and pricing power. That balance will matter heading into earnings. [45]
Bottom line: the setup for Apple stock before the Dec. 26 open
Going into Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, Apple stock is set up at the intersection of three narratives:
- Near-term demand confidence, especially in China, supported by fresh shipment data and earlier reports of strong iPhone 17 momentum. [46]
- Rising global regulatory pressure on the App Store and platform rules, now spanning the Americas, Europe, and Japan in rapid succession. [47]
- A high-stakes AI execution story heading into 2026, where Siri timelines, leadership changes, and potential partnerships are increasingly central to how analysts justify upside targets. [48]
With no major U.S. economic releases expected Friday, the market open is more likely to be driven by headline digestion, holiday-thinned liquidity, and positioning than by macro surprises—making the first hour after the bell especially important for direction-setting. [49]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
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