NEW YORK — Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 (4:32 p.m. ET). U.S. stocks just wrapped up a thin, post‑Christmas trading session with major indexes ending only slightly lower and still sitting near record territory. [1]
For Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), the day’s story is a familiar late‑year mix: low liquidity, headline‑driven swings, and investors trying to handicap 2026 catalysts—especially AI features, China demand signals, and legal/regulatory risks. In late after‑hours trading, Apple shares were around $273.40, down about 0.16% from the prior close, with the stock still carrying a market cap of roughly $3.0 trillion and a trailing P/E near 30.
Stock market backdrop: a quiet session near the highs
Wall Street closed Friday nearly unchanged in light post‑holiday trading. The Dow slipped about 0.04%, the S&P 500 about 0.03%, and the Nasdaq about 0.09%, snapping a short winning streak but leaving the market positioned for strong year‑end gains overall. [2]
Strategists widely framed the move as a pause after a strong run. Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick told Reuters the market was essentially “catching our breath” after a rally and noted the “Santa Claus rally” window still had time to play out. [3]
Other outlets echoed the “thin volume” theme, emphasizing that many institutional investors have already largely completed their year‑end positioning—often a setup for choppier, headline‑sensitive moves in mega‑cap stocks like Apple. [4]
Apple stock price today: where AAPL stands after the closing bell
As of late afternoon in New York (after the 4:00 p.m. ET close), Apple shares were trading around the $273 level. [5]
Key real‑time markers from today’s tape:
- Price: ~$273.40
- Day change: about ‑0.16%
- Intraday range: roughly $273.00 to $275.35
- Market cap: about $3.0T
- Trailing P/E: about 30
That price action fits the broader market mood: “holiday‑thin,” mostly drifting, and highly reactive to incremental news flow.
What moved Apple today: China iPhone shipment data + an Apple Watch legal boost
1) China demand signal: foreign‑branded phone shipments jumped 128% in November
One of the most market‑moving Apple data points this week came out of China: shipments of foreign‑branded phones (including iPhones) surged 128.4% year‑over‑year in November, according to CAICT data cited by Reuters. Total phone shipments in China rose a more modest 1.9% to 30.16 million units, while foreign‑branded devices accounted for 6.93 million units. [6]
Investors often treat this kind of readthrough as a directional signal for the iPhone cycle—particularly because China has been one of the most contested and sentiment‑sensitive regions for Apple over the last few years.
2) Apple Watch imports: judge denies bid that could have tightened supply
A second supportive headline: Barron’s reported Apple got a temporary legal win in its ongoing dispute involving Masimo and Apple Watch blood‑oxygen sensor technology, after a U.S. district court judge denied a request that would have blocked certain Apple Watch imports. [7]
Bloomberg Law’s reporting described a ruling where Judge Ana C. Reyes denied Masimo’s request (in the context of a lawsuit involving U.S. Customs and Border Protection) as part of the broader import‑ban saga. [8]
This Apple Watch thread matters because it has repeatedly created “supply headline risk” for wearables, even as Apple has tried redesigns and workarounds. Reuters has previously detailed Masimo’s litigation against U.S. Customs over approvals for Apple Watch imports. [9]
3) Perspective: Apple has lagged some mega‑cap peers in 2025
Even with today’s supportive headlines, Barron’s noted Apple shares have underperformed some mega‑cap peers in 2025, rising about 9% versus stronger gains in a Magnificent Seven ETF proxy. [10]
That relative lag is one reason “what’s next” (AI monetization, services durability, China momentum) is such a large part of the current AAPL narrative.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets are rising, but consensus isn’t uniformly bullish
In December, several major firms lifted Apple price targets, frequently tying their optimism to:
- a firmer upgrade cycle (including older iPhone cohorts replacing devices),
- Apple’s AI roadmap (often framed as “Siri 2.0” / next‑gen assistant capabilities),
- and resilient high‑margin services revenue.
Notable recent target changes cited in analyst notes:
- Wedbush (Dan Ives): raised target to $350 from $320, keeping an Outperform‑style stance, explicitly pitching 2026 as a key AI year for Apple. [11]
- Citi (Atif Malik): raised target to $330 from $315, maintaining a Buy rating. [12]
- Evercore ISI (Amit Daryanani): raised target to $325 from $300, keeping an Outperform rating, pointing to a spring 2026 Siri catalyst in its framework. [13]
- Loop Capital: raised target to $325 from $315, maintaining a Buy rating. [14]
- Morgan Stanley: raised target to $315 (from $305), per widely circulated summaries of the note. [15]
Consensus view: modest upside, wide dispersion
A key takeaway for investors reading across the Street: targets are scattered. One widely used compilation shows:
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average price target: about $288.62
- Range: roughly $200 (low) to $350 (high) [16]
In other words, some analysts are underwriting a meaningful “AI premium” and stronger upgrade dynamics, while others are more concerned about valuation, regulatory risk, and whether Apple can translate AI features into durable incremental revenue.
The 2026 Apple narrative: AI execution, services resilience, and China sensitivity
AI and Siri: leadership changes are now part of the thesis
One of the most widely shared Apple stories of December has been the leadership reshuffle around Siri/AI. The Verge reported Apple’s AI chief John Giannandrea stepping down from his role amid Siri setbacks, with Amar Subramanya taking over AI model development and reporting up through software chief Craig Federighi. [17]
Analyst coverage has increasingly treated “Siri 2.0” not just as a product update, but as a potential valuation and revenue catalyst—if Apple can convince users (and developers) that its assistant is meaningfully more capable, personalized, and privacy‑aligned than prior iterations.
Services: still a pillar, but growth scrutiny remains intense
Services—App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV+, warranties, payments—remain central to the “quality” argument for Apple’s earnings profile. But even modest shifts in App Store growth can move sentiment.
For example, an Investing.com note citing Sensor Tower data said Apple’s App Store revenue grew about 6% year‑over‑year in November (reported basis), slower than some prior months, and tied that to a more neutral stance from UBS. [18]
China: every data point still matters
The Reuters‑reported CAICT shipment data (foreign‑branded devices up 128.4% YoY) is the kind of signal that can quickly swing the “China narrative” on Apple—especially during a period when investors are trying to determine whether recent iPhone cycles are merely stabilizing or truly re‑accelerating. [19]
Risks investors are watching: regulation and litigation remain “live wires”
Even on an otherwise quiet trading day, Apple’s risk calendar stays busy:
- Italy antitrust fine related to App Tracking Transparency (ATT): AP reported Italy’s antitrust authority fined Apple €98.6 million and Apple said it would appeal. [20]
- UK App Store commissions litigation: The Guardian reported Apple is seeking to appeal a £1.5 billion ruling related to alleged overcharging through App Store commissions, part of a broader wave of legal challenges to platform fees. [21]
- Apple Watch / Masimo: Beyond this week’s court headlines, the dispute has included ITC actions and significant damages. Reuters previously reported a U.S. jury ordered Apple to pay $634 million to Masimo in a smartwatch patent case (Apple has said it plans to appeal). [22]
For AAPL shareholders, these issues usually don’t change Apple’s long‑term cash generation story overnight—but they can influence:
- headline volatility,
- services margin sentiment,
- and, importantly, what valuation multiple investors are willing to pay.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Apple trimming: a steady overhang, but Apple remains #1
Another recurring factor in Apple stock discussions is Berkshire’s position. Reuters reported Berkshire disclosed additional Apple selling in its latest filing, even as Apple remained its largest holding by value. [23]
Markets tend to treat this as flow risk (incremental selling pressure) rather than a direct comment on Apple’s fundamentals—though the “Buffett factor” still carries psychological weight for many investors.
Market is closed now: what investors should know before the next session
Because it’s 4:32 p.m. ET in New York, the regular U.S. stock market session has ended.
Here’s what matters heading into the next session:
1) After-hours trading can exaggerate moves
Apple often trades actively after the bell, but liquidity is still typically thinner than during regular hours—especially in a holiday week. That means:
- single headlines can push price more than usual,
- spreads can widen,
- and after-hours moves sometimes reverse the next day.
2) The next regular session is Monday, Dec. 29
With Friday’s close in the books, the next full regular session is Monday (Dec. 29), part of the year‑end window sometimes associated with seasonal “Santa Claus rally” narratives. [24]
Seasonality isn’t a strategy by itself, but it does shape positioning and short‑term sentiment into year‑end.
3) Know the holiday schedule ahead
For U.S. equities, Nasdaq’s holiday schedule confirms:
- Christmas Day (Dec. 25): closed (already passed)
- New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026): closed (upcoming) [25]
The NYSE calendar also highlights Dec. 24 as an early close (already passed), which helps explain why liquidity can feel “odd” during the final stretch of December. [26]
4) What to watch before Monday’s open
Going into the next session, Apple investors typically focus on four buckets:
- China demand readthroughs (any follow‑up data, channel checks, or supplier commentary) [27]
- AI/Siri roadmap headlines (product timing, leadership execution, or partner chatter) [28]
- Regulatory/legal updates (App Store economics, ATT scrutiny, Watch litigation) [29]
- Macro tone (rates and broader AI trade sentiment), especially after a year in which AI-linked equities have played an outsized role in index performance [30]
Bottom line: Apple enters year-end with “headline tailwinds,” but 2026 is about execution
Apple stock is closing out 2025 with supportive incremental news—stronger‑looking China shipment data and a helpful Apple Watch court development—while the broader market holds near highs in low‑volume holiday trade. [31]
But the bigger AAPL debate going into 2026 remains unchanged: Can Apple translate AI upgrades and ecosystem strength into durable growth without losing margin leverage to regulation, litigation, and competitive pressure? Analyst targets suggest optimism is building—yet the dispersion between the low and high targets shows the market is far from consensus. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. news.bloomberglaw.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.theverge.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. apnews.com, 21. www.theguardian.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.nyse.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.theverge.com, 29. apnews.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. stockanalysis.com
