Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) has turned into one of 2025’s loudest AI infrastructure stories — and one of its most volatile. After the bell on December 9, 2025, the stock barely moved in extended trading, but beneath that quiet tape is a very loud set of fundamentals, leases, ratings and risks that will shape trading when the market reopens on December 10.
Below is what traders and longer-term investors should know before the bell.
APLD Stock Recap: Big Intraday Swings, Modest After-Hours Drift
During the regular session on December 9, Applied Digital shares climbed roughly 2.1%, with intraday trading taking the stock as high as about $34.86 before settling in the low $32–33 area by the close. MarketBeat notes the last regular trade at $32.77, up from the prior close of $32.11, on volume slightly below the already-hefty average of ~35 million shares. [1]
In after-hours trading for December 9, activity calmed down:
- Market close (Dec. 9): roughly $32.7
- After-hours (Dec. 9): about $32.68, a small ~0.2% dip versus the close, with trading contained in the high-$32 range. [2]
In other words: after a volatile regular session, extended trading did not produce a big gap — a useful starting point for anyone planning pre-market orders on December 10.
Context for that volatility:
- APLD’s 52-week range runs from around $3.31 to $40.20.
- The stock’s beta is near 7, meaning it routinely moves many times more than the broader market. [3]
So a quiet after-hours session does not mean a quiet open is guaranteed. This name can wake up fast.
Why APLD Has Exploded 272% in a Year
The reason Applied Digital dominates trading screens is simple: it has pivoted from a crypto-heavy data center story into an AI “factory” landlord with eye-watering long-term lease commitments.
A recent Zacks/Nasdaq piece highlighted that APLD shares are up roughly 272% over the last 12 months, crushing both the broader finance sector and peers like Riot Platforms and Equinix. [4]
The engine behind that move:
- Polaris Forge 1 (Ellendale, ND)
- Fully leased 400 MW campus for AI/HPC workloads, with tenant CoreWeave.
- Management cites about $11 billion in anticipated contracted lease revenue over ~15 years. [5]
- Polaris Forge 2 (near Harwood, ND)
- New 200 MW lease with a U.S. investment-grade hyperscaler, worth about $5 billion in contracted revenue over an estimated 15-year term.
- Tenant holds a right of first refusal on another 800 MW, giving Polaris Forge 2 potential to scale toward 1 GW of capacity. [6]
Taken together, the company now touts roughly $16 billion in contracted revenue across its North Dakota AI campuses, positioning itself as a high-growth landlord for power-dense, liquid-cooled AI infrastructure. [7]
That’s the bullish narrative many traders are riding into December 10: APLD as a high-beta way to play the AI data center build-out.
Earnings Backdrop: Huge Revenue Growth, Persistent Losses
Fundamentally, APLD’s fiscal Q1 2026 (quarter ended August 31, 2025) remains the key anchor for current valuations:
- Revenue: $64.2 million, up 84% year over year from $34.8 million.
- Growth was driven mainly by tenant fit-out services for high-performance computing hosting (HPC) plus incremental gains in the legacy data center hosting business. [8]
- Net loss attributable to common shareholders: about $27.8 million (-$0.11 per share), versus prior-year net income of $15.9 million.
- Adjusted net loss: around $7.6 million (-$0.03 per share), highlighting how stock-based comp and one-time items are masking operational progress. [9]
The headline story: top line is exploding, profits are not. Zacks’ 272%-gain piece notes that:
- Analysts expect a fiscal 2026 loss of $0.31 per share, narrower than the $0.80 loss in fiscal 2025.
- Revenue and earnings are likely to remain “lumpy” until the big leases shift from construction and fit-out to steady rent, especially as the first 100 MW at Polaris Forge 1 begins lease recognition by late 2025 and more capacity phases in during 2026–2027. [10]
For traders into the December 10 open, that means: the story is heavily forward-looking. Near-term numbers are still messy while the company spends aggressively to finish build-outs.
Fresh December 9 Headlines: Ratings, Targets and Volatility
Several news items dated December 9, 2025 help explain why APLD was so active during the day but relatively tame after hours.
1. Analyst Consensus: “Moderate Buy” – but Targets are All Over the Place
DefenseWorld, citing MarketBeat data, reports that Applied Digital now carries a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from 13 research firms:
- 1 analyst rates it Sell
- 11 rate it Buy
- 1 calls it Strong Buy
- The average 12-month price target is about $26.20 – notably below the current share price in the low $30s. [11]
That average hides some aggressive bulls:
- HC Wainwright recently lifted its target from $20 to $40 and reiterated a Buy. [12]
So, going into December 10, investors are staring at a classic tension:
- Consensus rating: positive
- Average target: below market price
- Aggressive outliers: targets closer to $40, implying more upside if execution goes well.
2. Intraday Note: Up 2.1% With High Beta and Heavy Insider Selling
MarketBeat’s intraday note on December 9 (the one with the “Trading 2.1% Higher – Time to Buy?” headline) highlighted a few stats worth remembering before the next open: [13]
- Market cap: about $9+ billion
- P/E ratio: negative (company still unprofitable)
- Beta: ~6.95
- Liquidity: current and quick ratios both at 0.65, indicating limited short-term cushion
- Insiders sold ~328,000 shares last quarter, worth roughly $11.4 million, though insiders still own about 9.5% of the company.
Insider selling doesn’t automatically equal “run away,” but it does feed into the risk-on, not sleep-well-at-night character of this stock.
3. Options, Volatility and Mixed Sentiment
TipRanks flagged APLD on December 9 for unusual options activity and elevated implied volatility, noting that:
- Heavy options trading and high implied vol suggest traders expect big price swings.
- The platform’s data still show optimistic analyst sentiment and a robust price-target profile, but it also points to recent insider sales and a share-sale filing that have created more cautious, hedged positioning among some investors. [14]
That combination explains the “rocket during the day, flat after the bell” pattern: a lot of speculative energy, but also traders hedging overnight and into the next session.
Strategic & Balance Sheet Picture Going Into December 10
For anyone thinking beyond a single trading day (or at least beyond a single opening print), a couple of structural realities matter.
AI Factory Execution and Contracted Revenue
- Polaris Forge 1
- First 100 MW building is now fully energized after Phase II was delivered on time in late November. [15]
- Campus is tied to CoreWeave on a multi-building 400 MW footprint with long-term leases.
- Polaris Forge 2
- The $5 billion, 200 MW lease with a top-tier hyperscaler formally moved the company to 600 MW of total leased capacity across its North Dakota campuses.
- Hyperscaler has right of first refusal on an additional 800 MW, giving APLD the potential to expand Polaris Forge 2 over the coming years. [16]
These contracts are the core of the bull case: if APLD completes the campuses on time and on budget, and tenants ramp as planned, that contracted revenue can convert into relatively predictable cash flow.
Leverage and Credit View
On the other side of the ledger:
- As of August 31, 2025, APLD carried about $114 million in cash and cash equivalents and roughly $687 million in debt, not including several hundred million dollars of additional financing drawn after quarter-end. [17]
- S&P Global recently assigned the company a B+ credit rating with a positive outlook, with certain debt instruments rated BB-, reflecting both elevated leverage and the potential upside if the AI build-out performs as planned. [18]
So the balance sheet is aggressively geared toward growth. That can magnify upside and downside if projects slip or capital markets tighten.
Key Things to Watch Before the December 10, 2025 Open
Putting all this together, here’s what’s most relevant as you head into the next trading day:
- Pre-Market Price Action & Liquidity
- After-hours on December 9 showed only a slight dip from the close, suggesting no sudden negative catalyst or panic selling overnight. [19]
- But with beta near 7 and options activity elevated, pre-market moves can accelerate quickly on relatively modest order flow.
- Follow-Through on the “272% Gain” Narrative
- The widely-read Zacks/Nasdaq piece emphasizing APLD’s 272% 12-month gain and steep valuation (more than 20x forward sales) will be on a lot of screens. [20]
- Traders may use that as either a justification to chase or a trigger to take profits at the open.
- Valuation vs. Targets
- With an average analyst target around $26.20 but bullish houses sitting near $40, the stock is currently trading above the average but below the top of the range. [21]
- Price action near the open will tell you which camp is winning: the cautious “this is ahead of itself” crowd or the believers in further AI-driven upside.
- Headline Risk Around Financing and Dilution
- Recent press releases show the company leaning heavily on Macquarie-backed funding and senior secured notes to finance its campuses. [22]
- TipRanks’ reference to an additional share-sale filing illustrates that equity dilution remains part of the playbook. Watch for any new filings or bond-market headlines that might hit overnight or early in the session. [23]
- Macro & Sector Moves
- APLD trades like a levered AI infrastructure proxy, so moves in big AI names (NVIDIA, hyperscalers), in rates, or in crypto-related names (given its hosting roots) can all spill into the tape, even without company-specific news.
Risk Checklist for APLD Going Into the Next Session
Before leaning too hard in either direction at the December 10 open, it’s worth keeping a simple mental checklist:
- Customer Concentration
- CoreWeave is effectively the sole tenant for the fully leased 400 MW at Polaris Forge 1, and the new hyperscaler lease dominates Polaris Forge 2. That’s great when relationships are smooth; brutal if something goes wrong. [24]
- Execution Risk
- The whole long-term thesis rests on completing complex, high-density AI campuses on time and on budget. Delays or cost overruns can compress the valuation multiple very quickly. [25]
- Leverage & Refinancing
- High debt plus aggressive build-out means APLD depends on continuing access to capital markets and structured financing deals.
- Volatility
- With a beta near 7 and elevated options activity, shareholders are signing up for large intraday swings, not sleepy blue-chip behavior.
Bottom Line: What December 10 Traders Should Take Away
- Near term, APLD is a high-beta trading vehicle pinned between hype (AI leases, $16B contracted revenue, 272% stock gain) and genuine risks (execution, leverage, customer concentration, insider selling).
- After the bell on December 9, there were no new bombshells; extended trading showed only a small drift lower, suggesting the next move will be driven by positioning, sentiment and any fresh macro data rather than a surprise corporate announcement.
- Into the December 10 open, the most important variables are:
- How traders digest the stretched valuation narrative,
- Whether options-driven flows push the stock toward the bullish ($40) or cautious ($26) side of analyst targets, and
- Whether any new financing or sector headlines land before the bell.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. public.com, 3. www.defenseworld.net, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. ir.applieddigital.com, 7. ir.applieddigital.com, 8. www.stocktitan.net, 9. www.stocktitan.net, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.defenseworld.net, 12. www.defenseworld.net, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. ir.applieddigital.com, 16. ir.applieddigital.com, 17. www.stocktitan.net, 18. www.spglobal.com, 19. public.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.defenseworld.net, 22. ir.applieddigital.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. ir.applieddigital.com
