Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) is heading into the final week of 2025 with two things Wall Street loves (and fears): a giant AI narrative and a balance-sheet story that can flip sentiment in a single headline.
As of Friday, December 26, 2025, APLD traded around $25.72 with a market capitalization near $7.18 billion. That price sits in the middle of a month defined by sharp, headline-driven swings—exactly what tends to happen when a company is simultaneously building out massive AI data center capacity and raising capital to fund it.
Below is a full, up-to-date wrap of what’s moving Applied Digital stock right now, what analysts are forecasting, and what investors will be watching next.
APLD stock today: why investors are still arguing on Dec. 26, 2025
The short version: Applied Digital is trying to turn itself into a long-duration AI infrastructure landlord, where the endgame is recurring lease revenue. The market likes the destination, but it keeps scrutinizing the bridge: financing terms, customer concentration, and execution risk.
That tension was visible this week. StockStory reported that APLD fell sharply after investors digested the implications of new Macquarie-backed financing—less about whether AI demand is real, and more about what it costs to race into it. [1]
The biggest fresh catalyst: Macquarie-backed development financing (and the SEC details)
The company announcement (Dec. 18, 2025)
Applied Digital announced it entered into a loan facility with Macquarie intended to fund pre-lease development costs for new data center projects—site work, planning, early construction—before a full lease is locked in. [2]
Two details matter for the stock narrative:
- Applied Digital said it was in advanced-stage negotiations with an “investment-grade hyperscaler” for multiple campuses. [3]
- It said the initial $100 million in draws from this facility is intended to support those development activities. [4]
This is the classic AI data center playbook: secure a power-ready site, move fast, and try to be the option a hyperscaler can’t ignore when demand spikes and capacity is scarce.
The SEC filing (Dec. 22, 2025): what the loan actually looks like
A Current Report on Form 8‑K dated December 22, 2025 adds the “fine print” investors obsess over. The filing describes an ongoing credit arrangement involving Applied Digital’s subsidiary (APLD DevCo LLC) and Macquarie Equipment Capital, Inc. [5]
Key terms disclosed include:
- $45 million “First Draw” funded at closing, plus a $55 million “Second Draw” available later—but the second draw is discretionary/uncommitted. [6]
- 8.0% interest rate, with a default rate that adds 1.50% per month on top of 8% if an event of default occurs and continues. [7]
- A 12-month PIK period (interest paid-in-kind and capitalized to principal monthly), followed by cash interest. [8]
- Maturity structure tied to leasing progress: the loan matures earliest of acceleration, July 18, 2026 if an “Initial Lease Execution” hasn’t occurred by April 18, 2026, or December 18, 2027. [9]
- The filing also describes collateral and guarantees, including pledges over substantially all assets of certain entities (with exclusions) and parent-level covenants limiting certain transfers and liens. [10]
Why this matters for APLD stock: it’s not just “money in.” It’s money with a clock—and with conditions that effectively tell investors what the lender thinks the near-term milestones must be.
The next near-term catalyst: Applied Digital earnings and the Jan. 7, 2026 call
Applied Digital has scheduled its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings conference call for Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, with results issued after market close the same day. [11]
(Third-party earnings calendars also reflect January 7, 2026 as the report date, though they may present different “before open/after close” labels depending on how they ingest timing. [12])
For APLD shareholders, that call is likely to be less about one quarter’s EPS and more about:
- leasing progress and any new hyperscaler updates,
- construction timelines and campus ramp milestones,
- liquidity and the path to project-level financing,
- and how much dilution/debt the company may still need to reach “steady-state lease revenue.”
The demand story behind APLD: CoreWeave and hyperscalers want power—and long leases
Applied Digital’s bullish thesis has been supercharged by large, long-term leasing announcements.
CoreWeave leases: multi-year contracted revenue
Reuters reported that Applied Digital entered into two 15-year leases with AI cloud provider CoreWeave, expected to generate about $7 billion in revenue over the lease period. [13]
Another hyperscaler lease: $5 billion over ~15 years for 200 MW
In October, Reuters reported Applied Digital signed a ~15-year, $5 billion lease with a U.S.-based hyperscaler for 200 MW at its Polaris Forge 2 campus in North Dakota. Reuters also said that, with this deal, Applied Digital’s total leased capacity across Polaris Forge 1 and 2 rose to 600 MW. [14]
The combination is important: CoreWeave provides a “neocloud” anchor, while a separate investment-grade hyperscaler deal helps validate that APLD isn’t a one-tenant story forever—at least in principle.
Buildout scale: the pipeline is huge, and the market is pricing the “future landlord” version of APLD
A key part of the narrative is just how large Applied Digital’s ambitions are compared with its current reported revenue.
A Nasdaq-hosted Zacks analysis describes Applied Digital as a “pure-play” AI infrastructure developer focused on hyperscale data center campuses, noting:
- about $11 billion in contracted lease revenue with CoreWeave covering 400 MW at Polaris Forge 1,
- construction commencement and expansion plans for Polaris Forge 2 (initially 300 MW, with potential expansion toward 1 GW),
- 700 MW under construction across campuses and a 4‑GW active development pipeline, and
- a cooling design targeting PUE ~1.18 (Power Usage Effectiveness; lower is better), framed as an efficiency advantage. [15]
The same piece also references a $5 billion preferred equity facility with Macquarie Asset Management and suggests it could unlock substantial project financing capacity. [16]
This is why APLD trades like a “story stock” right now: investors are valuing future contracted cash flows more than present-day income statement comfort.
Forecasts and analyst targets: Wall Street is bullish… but the spread is telling
TipRanks: bullish targets clustered well above the current price
TipRanks shows an average price target of $42.78 based on 10 analysts issuing 12-month targets in the past 3 months, with a high of $56 and low of $35. [17]
MarketBeat: much lower average target, very wide range
MarketBeat shows a consensus price target of $26.20 (about 1.87% upside from $25.72), with a high of $41 and a low of $7, and a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating based on its methodology. [18]
How can both be “right”?
These aren’t small differences. They signal the same underlying reality: APLD is hard to model because outcomes hinge on execution checkpoints (leases, power, construction timelines, project financing) rather than steady-state operations.
Also, different platforms often:
- include different analysts,
- weight recency differently,
- and may lag on updates.
For readers, the practical takeaway is not “pick the higher number.” It’s that the market is paying for a best-case lease ramp, while some analysts/data providers remain anchored to a more conservative view of financing risk and timing.
The bull case for Applied Digital stock: scarcity economics, long leases, and an AI infrastructure land-grab
Here’s what the bullish coverage generally leans on:
- AI capacity demand is outrunning supply, and power-ready, buildable sites are scarce.
- Long-term leases convert that scarcity into durable revenue visibility. Reuters’ reporting on multi-year, multi‑billion-dollar lease structures captures the magnitude of the opportunity if execution holds. [19]
- Big “deal wins” re-rate the stock quickly. The Nasdaq/Zacks note argues that, once facilities are operational, the lease model can resemble annuity-style cash flows, and it highlights the company’s pipeline scale. [20]
In that frame, the Macquarie development facility is viewed as a strategic accelerator: it helps APLD move early on sites and meet hyperscaler timelines—because in AI infrastructure, speed is a product.
The bear case: valuation, capital intensity, and the “high-wire act” of funding a pipeline
If the bull case is “AI landlords print money,” the bear case is “they have to survive the buildout first.”
Valuation is the loudest alarm bell
On Dec. 26, The Motley Fool highlighted that APLD’s share price has outrun even its fast-growing revenue and argued the stock’s valuation—described as nearly 30 times sales—should give investors pause. [21]
A separate Nasdaq/Zacks analysis earlier this month also characterized valuation as stretched, citing ~21.4x forward sales and warning that execution or timeline slippage could compress multiples toward sector norms. [22]
Balance sheet and concentration risks don’t vanish just because AI is popular
That same Nasdaq/Zacks piece flags that results may remain “lumpy” until lease revenue scales and points to risks including customer concentration (CoreWeave as a major tenant) and the heavy cash demands of ramping campuses. [23]
Seeking Alpha’s Dec. 19 analysis struck a similar tone—arguing that many rerating catalysts had been digested and that the next phase is about fundamentals and execution, with financing costs and capital structure shaping equity upside. [24]
And more skeptical commentary has emphasized exactly the risk investors keep circling back to: if AI demand cools or buildouts slip, debt becomes a lot less romantic—a theme echoed in recent cautionary takes. [25]
What happened this week in APLD headlines: up on funding, down on debt anxiety
Applied Digital’s stock action over the past week has mirrored the push-pull:
- Funding news helped fuel rallies in the stock (multiple market summaries tie jumps to the Macquarie facility headline). [26]
- Then the market questioned the other side of the trade: higher leverage and the cost of capital, especially for a company still transitioning to higher-margin recurring lease income. [27]
This is why APLD behaves the way it does: it’s not trading like a mature REIT or a mature tech company. It’s trading like a financed buildout plan.
What to watch next: the specific milestones that can move APLD stock in 2026
With APLD, the next leg is rarely about “beating EPS by a penny.” It’s about whether the company keeps converting its pipeline into financeable, leased assets.
Key milestones flagged in recent analysis and filings include:
- January 7, 2026 earnings and guidance tone (and any update on hyperscaler negotiations). [28]
- Lease execution timing, especially given the development facility’s structure and the importance of an “Initial Lease Execution” milestone described in the SEC filing. [29]
- Asset-level/project financing progress (often a de-risking inflection point for data center developers). [30]
- Tenant diversification beyond CoreWeave over time (important for valuation durability). [31]
- Buildout execution against aggressive timelines and ramping toward full campus capacity. [32]
Bottom line on Applied Digital stock on Dec. 26, 2025
Applied Digital (APLD) sits at the intersection of three powerful forces:
- AI infrastructure demand that’s still expanding,
- physical constraints (power, land, cooling, timelines) that reward developers who can move fast,
- capital structure reality, where speed is purchased with financing complexity.
Right now, APLD is priced like a company that successfully becomes a scaled AI infrastructure landlord. The path to that outcome is visible in leases and pipeline talk—but the market is still voting day-to-day on whether the financing terms, execution pace, and tenant concentration justify that premium.
This is informational reporting, not investment advice; APLD is volatile, and readers should review filings and consider risk tolerance before acting on any stock-related decision. [33]
References
1. stockstory.org, 2. ir.applieddigital.com, 3. ir.applieddigital.com, 4. ir.applieddigital.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. ir.applieddigital.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.fool.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. seekingalpha.com, 25. 247wallst.com, 26. www.fool.com, 27. stockstory.org, 28. ir.applieddigital.com, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.sec.gov
