Applied Digital (APLD) Stock on December 10, 2025: AI Data Center High‑Flier With Huge Backlog, Cash Burn and Short‑Squeeze Potential

Key takeaways

Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) trades around $31.76 today, down roughly 3% on the session but still up about +228% over the last 12 months. ^[1]
The company has signed ~$16 billion of long‑term AI data center leases with CoreWeave and a U.S. investment‑grade hyperscaler, anchored at its Polaris Forge campuses in North Dakota. ^[2]
Despite rapid growth, Applied Digital remains deeply unprofitable, with $173.6 million in trailing 12‑month revenue vs. a ~$247.9 million net loss and nearly $1 billion in negative free cash flow. ^[3]
Short interest is extreme at roughly 33% of the free float, and the stock’s 5‑year beta of about 7.1 makes it one of the market’s most volatile AI plays. ^[4]
Fresh analysis on December 10, 2025 paints a split picture: some commentators see a potential life‑changing AI infrastructure winner, while others focus on heavy leverage, tenant risk and insider selling. ^[5]

This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice.

APLD stock price snapshot on December 10, 2025

As of today’s trading session, Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) is changing hands at roughly $31.76 per share, down about $1.01 (~3%) on the day.

Over the last year, the stock has:

Climbed about +228% over the past 52 weeks
Traded in a 52‑week range of roughly $3.31 to $40.20
Reached a market capitalization around $9 billion ^[6]

According to StockAnalysis data:

52‑week price change: +227.94%
Beta (5Y): 7.10 – implying price swings far greater than the broader market
Average 20‑day volume: ~26.6 million shares ^[7]

This combination of huge upside, violent drawdowns and massive trading volume is a big part of why APLD continues to feature heavily in AI‑themed trading and options chatter.

From Bitcoin hosting to AI “Factory” landlord

Applied Digital started as a provider of energy‑hungry data center capacity for crypto mining, operating under the name Applied Blockchain before rebranding in 2022 to reflect a broader focus on high‑performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads. ^[8]

Today the company:

Designs, builds and operates “AI Factories”—large, GPU‑dense data centers optimized for AI and HPC
Runs two main segments:
- Data Center Hosting Business (legacy crypto infrastructure)
- HPC Hosting Business (AI and other high‑power compute workloads) ^[9]

The strategy centers on North Dakota AI campuses:

Polaris Forge 1 – Ellendale, ND (CoreWeave campus)

Fully leased 400 MW AI campus largely dedicated to CoreWeave, an AI‑focused cloud provider. ^[10]
Management and Zacks estimate about $11 billion of contracted lease revenue over approximately 15 years from CoreWeave’s 400 MW commitment. ^[11]
Lease revenue is expected to ramp in stages as capacity comes online:
- First 100 MW begins recognizing lease revenue toward the end of calendar 2025
- Additional 150 MW in mid‑2026
- Remaining 150 MW in 2027 ^[12]
The first 100 MW building hit “Ready‑for‑Service” milestones on schedule with 50 MW phases announced on Oct. 27 and Nov. 24, 2025. ^[13]

Polaris Forge 2 – Harwood, ND (hyperscaler campus)

Lease signed with a U.S. investment‑grade hyperscaler, covering 200 MW of capacity.
That contract is expected to generate around $5 billion in lease revenue over ~15 years, with a right of first refusal on another 800 MW, giving the campus 1 GW expansion potential. ^[14]
Initial capacity is expected to come online in 2026, with the full 300 MW of the initial phase targeted for 2027. ^[15]

Across the two sites, Motley Fool and Zacks coverage put Applied Digital’s contracted and prospective lease pipeline near $16 billion over 15 years, backed by multi‑year AI infrastructure demand. ^[16]

Latest company news going into December 10, 2025

1. Corintis investment and liquid‑cooling strategy (Dec. 2)

On December 2, 2025, Applied Digital announced it had led a $25 million funding round for Corintis, a Swiss company developing direct‑to‑chip microfluidic liquid‑cooling technology for high‑density AI chips. ^[17]

Highlights from that release:

Corintis’ cooling design can deliver up to 3x lower chip temperatures than standard cold plates, enabling higher power density and improved energy efficiency. ^[18]
Applied Digital explicitly framed the deal as part of its plan to remain on the leading edge of power, cooling and efficiency for AI‑optimized infrastructure. ^[19]

This dovetails with Zacks’ recent focus on liquid‑cooling and “water‑light” designs at APLD, where the company is targeting a power usage effectiveness (PUE) of 1.18, near‑zero water use, and leveraging 200+ days of natural cooling in the Dakotas. ^[20]

2. Macquarie funding facility and new capital draw (Nov. 12–13)

Applied Digital’s growth is heavily funded by external capital:

A long‑term perpetual preferred equity financing facility of up to $5.0 billion with Macquarie Asset Management backs its AI campus build‑out. ^[21]
On Nov. 12, 2025, the company announced it expects to receive an additional $787.5 million in preferred equity funding from Macquarie:
- $450 million earmarked for Polaris Forge 2’s build‑out
- $337.5 million for Polaris Forge 1 and platform‑level costs, contingent on closing a $2.35 billion senior secured notes offering. ^[22]

APLD also entered into a $65 million revolving credit facility with First National Bank of Omaha, at SOFR + 2.75%, secured by company assets. ^[23]

A separate Nov. 13 press release (which we can see referenced but not fully access) outlined the pricing of the $2.35 billion senior secured notes, further underscoring how dependent Applied Digital’s build‑out is on the debt and private‑credit markets. ^[24]

3. Polaris Forge 1: 100 MW now ready for service

Press releases in late October and November confirm that Applied Digital has:

Achieved “ready for service” at Polaris Forge 1, Building 1, initially at 50 MW and now at the full 100 MW IT load, on schedule. ^[25]
Tied these milestones directly to CoreWeave’s long‑term leases, meaning more capacity is now ready to transition from low‑margin installation revenue to higher‑margin recurring rent as GPU racks are filled and energized. ^[26]

These execution updates are central to bullish arguments that APLD is evolving from “speculative builder” to contracted‑revenue landlord in the AI era.

Fresh headlines & analysis on Applied Digital today (Dec. 10, 2025)

Parameter: “Huge leases, huge expectations — and big risks”

A detailed piece at Parameter published on December 10, 2025 frames today’s trading as a “pivotal day” for APLD. ^[27] Key points:

The article highlights APLD’s transformation into an AI data center landlord with billions in long‑term contracted revenue, but also notes:
- Persistent net losses despite 84% year‑over‑year revenue growth in the most recent quarter
- High leverage and significant financing needs, even after Macquarie’s backing
- A 272% one‑year share price rally that leaves the stock vulnerable to sentiment swings ^[28]
Wall Street’s view is described as “sharply divided”:
- Some analysts warn the valuation is running ahead of fundamentals
- Others see the long‑duration leases as underappreciated, with bullish price targets near or above $40 per share ^[29]
The article underscores heavy insider selling, beta near 7, and elevated options activity, portraying APLD as a high‑octane AI trade, not a low‑volatility compounder. ^[30]

Motley Fool: “Could buying Applied Digital today set you up for life?”

A brand‑new Motley Fool headline today asks whether buying APLD now could be “life‑changing” for long‑term investors. ^[31]

While the full article is gated, recent Fool coverage of APLD has consistently emphasized:

The multibillion‑dollar lease pipeline (~$16B) with CoreWeave and the hyperscaler
The potential for massive AI power demand to keep these campuses full for years
Scenarios where, if Polaris Forge 1 & 2 are executed well and further campuses follow, annual revenue could scale into the billions by 2030, implying substantial upside from today’s price. ^[32]

At the same time, Fools writers often flag serious risks around leverage, dilution, and tenant concentration, so the “set you up for life” framing comes with a large asterisk.

MarketBeat / Investing.com: High‑short‑interest AI play

A MarketBeat piece syndicated on Investing.com today highlights APLD as one of several “high short‑interest stocks to buy before Q1 2026.” ^[33] It notes that:

Recent results from APLD and Nvidia suggest AI capacity is effectively “sold out”, reinforcing demand for its campuses. ^[34]
Short interest in APLD was over 30% of float in late November, with signs that a short‑covering rally may already be underway. ^[35]
The article cites 13 analysts, a “Moderate Buy” rating and a rapidly rising consensus price target, with the upper end of targets implying roughly 30% upside and the possibility of new all‑time highs if things go right. ^[36]

This fits the narrative of APLD as a potential short‑squeeze candidate – but one that is already trading at rich multiples.

Reuters Breakingviews: “Shaky data centre tenants could choke off AI boom”

In a Breakingviews column published December 10, Reuters uses Applied Digital’s partnership with CoreWeave as a case study in AI data‑center risk. ^[37]

Key takeaways:

CoreWeave and other “neo‑clouds” lease facilities from developers like APLD, load them with GPUs and then sell AI compute to customers.
Applied Digital is constructing a 100 MW flagship facility in North Dakota that Breakingviews estimates will cost about $1.2 billion, financed largely with debt and preferred equity. ^[38]
At an assumed $135/kW/month lease rate across 400 MW of CoreWeave capacity, Reuters calculates net operating income that would support a healthy 16% internal rate of return under benign assumptions – but notes that higher borrowing costs or lower terminal values could quickly compress returns below the 12.75% preferred equity yield Macquarie earns on the project. ^[39]
The column warns that if credit markets grow wary of these structures, funding for new AI data centers could dry up, not for lack of demand but because financing costs overwhelm returns. ^[40]

In plain English: the physical AI boom could be throttled by credit risk, and APLD sits squarely in that cross‑fire.

24/7 Wall St: “CoreWeave hits profitability while Applied Digital burns cash”

A December 6 piece from 24/7 Wall St, widely syndicated via Yahoo and Finviz, contrasts CoreWeave’s march to profitability with Applied Digital’s heavy cash burn. ^[41]

It points out that:

CoreWeave reported roughly $1.36 billion in Q3 revenue and has turned profitable, while
Applied Digital’s latest Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $64.2 million (up 84%) still comes with sizeable losses and negative operating cash flow. ^[42]

The message to investors: owning the landlord is currently much more cash‑intensive than owning the tenant, at least in the near term.

How Applied Digital is performing financially

Q1 fiscal 2026: fast growth, but still in the red

For its fiscal first quarter 2026, reported on October 10, 2025, Applied Digital announced: ^[43]

Revenue: $64.2 million, up 84% year‑over‑year
Adjusted loss per share:$0.03, in line with estimates
Results beat analyst revenue expectations by about $9.6 million, driven by demand for AI data center services and new leasing agreements with CoreWeave and the hyperscaler. ^[44]

However, even with that growth:

Cash flow from operations remains negative, as the company spends heavily on fit‑outs and campus construction. ^[45]
Lease revenue from the big North Dakota deals is only just starting to trickle in as capacity goes “ready for service,” meaning low‑margin installation revenue still dominates the mix for now. ^[46]

Trailing 12‑month snapshot

StockAnalysis aggregates the last 12 months of reported results as: ^[47]

Revenue: $173.56 million
Net income:–$247.89 million (loss)
Free cash flow: about –$997.76 million, reflecting extreme construction capex
Cash and equivalents: $73.91 million
Total debt: $700.21 million
Net cash: about –$626 million

Margins are deeply negative:

Gross margin: 22.6%
Operating margin: –35.7%
Net profit margin: –141.3% ^[48]

Financial health metrics paint a stressed balance sheet:

Current ratio: 0.65
Quick ratio: 0.10
Debt / EBITDA: ~87x
Altman Z‑Score:0.42 – a level that historically signals elevated bankruptcy risk if conditions deteriorate. ^[49]

All of this underpins the “burns cash building data centers” framing in recent commentary.

Wall Street forecasts and valuation for APLD stock

Zacks/TradingView: strong growth ahead, but still a “Hold”

Recent research from Zacks, distributed via TradingView and Nasdaq, lays out a detailed near‑term forecast: ^[50]

Fiscal 2026 revenue is expected to reach $280.9 million, implying roughly 27% growth from fiscal 2025. ^[51]
The consensus loss per share for fiscal 2026 is –$0.31, an improvement from a reported –$0.80 loss in fiscal 2025. ^[52]
For Q2 fiscal 2026, consensus revenue sits near $75.95 million, up about 19% year‑over‑year, with a projected loss of $0.10 per share. ^[53]
Zacks currently rates APLD as Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a balanced view of risk and reward. ^[54]

Consensus price targets and ratings

According to StockAnalysis’ compilation of Wall Street estimates: ^[55]

Average price target:$29.36 – about 8% below the current share price
Consensus rating:“Strong Buy”
Analyst count: 11

This mismatch—“Strong Buy” rating with a below‑market price target—mirrors the divided tone seen in today’s Parameter article:

Some firms warn that valuation has outrun fundamentals, especially given negative earnings, huge capex and reliance on high‑yield, structured financing. ^[56]
Others focus on the visibility of long‑term lease revenue and see underappreciated upside if APLD executes its North Dakota build‑out on time and on budget, with price targets clustered in the mid‑$30s to around $40 per share. ^[57]

On the more aggressive side, recent Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool pieces have floated scenarios where:

Annual revenue could reach ~$3 billion by 2030,
And the stock could eventually trade near $100 per share, assuming continued AI data‑center scarcity, additional campus wins and strong execution. ^[58]

These are optimistic scenario analyses, not consensus forecasts, but they show how wide the outcome range looks to bullish investors.

Short interest, volatility and technical backdrop

Applied Digital has become a classic battleground stock.

From StockAnalysis’ latest statistics: ^[59]

Short interest: 78.75 million shares
Short interest as % of shares outstanding: ~27.6%
Short interest as % of free float: ~32.8%
Days to cover: 2.57

Combine that with:

5‑year beta of 7.10
A roughly +228% 52‑week price gain
And near‑daily double‑digit intraday moves during heavy news flow ^[60]

…and you get exactly the kind of profile highlighted in MarketBeat’s “High Short‑Interest Stocks to Buy Before Q1 2026” list: a name where improved fundamentals, momentum or surprise news could force shorts to cover and amplify upside, but where negative surprises can also lead to rapid, outsized declines. ^[61]

This is not the kind of stock typically suited to conservative, low‑volatility portfolios.

Key risk factors investors are watching

1. Heavy leverage and funding dependence

The combination of $700+ million in debt, nearly $1 billion in negative free cash flow over the last year and hundreds of megawatts still under construction makes Applied Digital extremely dependent on: ^[62]

Continued access to debt and preferred equity markets
Supportive partners like Macquarie Asset Management
And favorable interest‑rate and credit conditions

Reuters’ Breakingviews analysis shows that relatively modest shifts in interest rates or capitalization rates can reduce project IRRs to levels barely above, or even below, the yields demanded by preferred equity investors, which could undermine the economic case for future builds. ^[63]

2. Tenant concentration and “neo‑cloud” risk

APLD’s anchor tenants include:

CoreWeave, a fast‑growing AI infrastructure provider, and
A unnamed investment‑grade hyperscaler at Polaris Forge 2. ^[64]

While hyperscalers like Microsoft or Amazon are seen as relatively low‑risk from a credit standpoint, neo‑cloud players such as CoreWeave rely on their own mix of debt, customer contracts and equity financing. ^[65]

Reuters notes that:

CoreWeave has taken on substantial obligations, with 15‑year leases for 400 MW of APLD capacity, while many of its own customer contracts run closer to four to five years.
Credit markets have already pushed CoreWeave’s credit default swap spreads higher after modest guidance changes, signaling growing concern over the mismatch between long leases and shorter‑term revenues. ^[66]

If a key tenant struggles to pay—or seeks to renegotiate terms—Applied Digital’s revenue visibility could be sharply reduced.

3. Execution risk on 12–14‑month build timelines

Zacks emphasizes that Applied Digital is compressing data center build timelines to 12–14 months, versus roughly two years for traditional builds, while trying to develop multiple campuses in parallel. ^[67]

That speed is a competitive advantage only if:

Power interconnects arrive on schedule
Supply chains for GPUs, transformers and cooling gear hold up
And APLD continues hitting Ready‑for‑Service milestones on or ahead of schedule

Delays can ripple through:

Lease revenue recognition
Cash flow timing
And ultimately funding costs, especially in a high‑rate environment where lenders and preferred equity investors are watching milestones closely. ^[68]

4. Valuation, insider selling and potential dilution

With a price‑to‑sales ratio above 40x and an EV/sales multiple north of 55x, APLD trades at valuations normally reserved for high‑margin software or hyper‑profitable cloud names—not for a capital‑intensive, loss‑making data center developer. ^[69]

Recent analysis (including today’s Parameter piece) flags:

Significant insider share sales during the stock’s big 2025 run
A history of equity issuance and structured financing
And the likelihood that additional capital raises could become necessary if project economics shift or costs overrun. ^[70]

For skeptics, this mix of high valuation, heavy leverage and insider selling is a red flag. For bulls, the question is whether lease‑driven cash flows can catch up fast enough to justify the premium.

What to watch next for Applied Digital stock

Going forward from December 10, 2025, investors and traders following APLD are likely focused on a few key catalysts:

Ramp of Polaris Forge 1 lease revenue
- Confirmation that the first 100 MW CoreWeave building is fully online and billing at expected rates. ^[71]
Construction progress at Polaris Forge 2 and future campuses
- Evidence that APLD can replicate its 12–14‑month build model at scale while keeping capex on budget. ^[72]
Funding milestones and debt market reception
- The final terms and market reception of the $2.35 billion senior secured notes, as well as any future preferred‑equity draws or bank facilities. ^[73]
Short interest trends and options activity
- Whether the >30% float short interest starts to decline, signaling a short‑covering phase, or whether new shorts step in if fundamentals disappoint. ^[74]
Tenant health and AI demand signals
- Earnings from CoreWeave, Nvidia and other AI ecosystem players that indicate whether AI compute demand is still outpacing supply, or whether growth is slowing. ^[75]

Bottom line: A high‑risk AI infrastructure bet priced for perfection

On December 10, 2025, Applied Digital sits at the heart of the AI infrastructure boom:

It has enviable long‑term leases with leading AI partners and a multi‑billion‑dollar contracted backlog.
Its data centers are designed around liquid‑cooled, power‑dense, water‑light architectures that align with where AI compute is heading. ^[76]
Yet the business is currently loss‑making, highly leveraged and heavily dependent on smooth project execution and accommodating credit markets. ^[77]

Recent coverage—from Motley Fool’s “could set you up for life” angle to Reuters’ warnings about fragile financing—captures the essence of APLD:

It’s a speculative, high‑beta AI landlord where both spectacular upside and severe downside are credible scenarios.

Anyone considering APLD needs to be comfortable with:

Extreme volatility
The possibility of future dilution or restructuring if conditions sour
And a long‑term horizon that can withstand sharp swings driven by short‑selling, funding headlines and tenant news.

As always, thorough independent research, clear risk limits and, ideally, consultation with a qualified financial professional are essential before making any investment decisions in a stock as volatile and leveraged as Applied Digital.

References