As of 12:47 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, Applied Digital Corporation (Nasdaq: APLD) is trading around $24.41, down roughly 5% on the session, after swinging between about $24.05 and $26.01 with holiday-thinned liquidity and active intraday volume.
That “thin liquidity” point matters today because the broader market setup is unusually quiet—but not necessarily calm. U.S. stocks are hovering near record levels in a “bridge” session between Christmas and the weekend, with many institutional desks effectively in end-of-year mode. Charles Schwab’s market update warned that light volume can exaggerate moves, even when headlines are sparse. [1] The Associated Press similarly described quiet, low-catalyst trading as investors return from the holiday. [2]
So why is APLD moving at all in a sleepy tape? Because Applied Digital sits at the intersection of two powerful 2025 narratives that investors can’t stop arguing about:
- AI infrastructure demand is real and urgent (power, cooling, capacity, speed-to-market).
- Funding that buildout is expensive and risky (leverage, dilution, execution timing).
Below is what’s driving the conversation around Applied Digital stock right now—plus the key dates and decision points that could shape the next leg.
Why Applied Digital (APLD) Is on the AI Infrastructure Radar
Applied Digital pitches itself as a builder and operator of next-generation digital infrastructure for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads, with a strategy centered on large “AI factory” campuses—especially in North Dakota—where power availability and climate can be favorable. [3]
The bull case is straightforward: if hyperscalers and “AI neoclouds” keep racing to secure capacity, developers that can deliver megawatts fast can lock in long-duration contracts.
The bear case is just as straightforward: building data centers at hyperscale requires huge capital outlays up front, and markets can punish any hint of slippage—especially when financing costs rise.
The Big Catalyst: Macquarie-Linked Financing to Keep Building
On December 18, 2025, Applied Digital announced it entered into a loan facility with Macquarie Group’s Commodities and Global Markets business to fund pre-lease development costs for new data center projects. The company said it is in advanced-stage negotiations with another investment-grade hyperscaler for multiple campuses, and that the initial $100 million in draws from this facility is intended to support those development activities. [4]
Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins framed the facility as a way to move faster on high-quality sites while preserving flexibility. [5]
This matters for APLD stock because pre-lease development is where capital can get “trapped” if demand doesn’t firm up—or if counterparties delay decisions. A dedicated development facility can reduce timing risk, but it also underscores the company’s dependence on external financing to keep scaling.
The Revenue Backbone: Long-Term Hyperscaler Leases (Including a $5B Deal)
Applied Digital’s most headline-grabbing contract in 2025 was announced on October 22, 2025: a ~15-year lease with a U.S.-based, investment-grade hyperscaler for 200 MW at its Polaris Forge 2 campus near Harwood, North Dakota—representing approximately $5 billion in total contracted revenue. The customer also holds a first right of refusal for an additional 800 MW, effectively the site’s full expansion potential up to 1 GW. [6]
Applied Digital says this deal brought its total leased capacity across Polaris Forge 1 and 2 (with two major hyperscalers) to 600 MW. [7]
From an operational standpoint, the company is leaning hard into efficiency claims—like a projected PUE (power usage effectiveness) of ~1.18 and near-zero water consumption for Polaris Forge 2. [8]
For investors, the key is simpler: multi-year leases can create visibility, but the timeline to deliver capacity (and convert it into recurring cash flow) is where the market will keep score.
CoreWeave and Polaris Forge 1: The Other Anchor Customer
Applied Digital has also built much of its 2025 narrative around CoreWeave, an AI-focused cloud provider.
In its fiscal Q1 2026 results (quarter ended Aug. 31, 2025), Applied Digital said it had signed an additional 150 MW lease with CoreWeave, bringing the Polaris Forge 1 campus to fully leased and lifting total anticipated contracted lease revenue for Polaris Forge 1 to approximately $11 billion (including earlier ~15-year leases). [9]
The company also reported progress milestones at Polaris Forge 1, including “ready for service” achievements that it positioned as proof of execution speed. CEO Wes Cummins and COO Laura Laltrello both emphasized delivery pace and operational precision in the company’s updates. [10]
Financial Snapshot: Rapid Revenue Growth, Losses, and a Balance Sheet Investors Scrutinize
In that same fiscal Q1 2026 report, Applied Digital posted:
- Revenue: $64.2 million, up 84% year-over-year
- Net loss attributable to common stockholders: $27.8 million (and -$0.11 per share)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $0.5 million
- Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash: $114.1 million and debt: $687.3 million as of Aug. 31, 2025 (with additional financings occurring after quarter end) [11]
The important nuance for readers: some of that quarter’s revenue was tied to tenant fit-out services—the kind of revenue that can be meaningful but may carry different margins and recurrence characteristics than stabilized lease income. [12]
In other words, the company is scaling, but investors are still waiting for the story to mature into durable, higher-margin recurring lease revenue at meaningful scale.
The Leverage Question: $2.35B of 9.25% Senior Secured Notes
Applied Digital’s financing moves have been a major source of APLD volatility.
On November 13, 2025, the company announced that its subsidiary APLD ComputeCo LLC priced a $2.35 billion offering of 9.250% senior secured notes due 2030 (issue price 97%). Proceeds were intended to help fund construction at Polaris Forge 1 (including 100 MW and 150 MW data centers), repay amounts under an earlier credit agreement, fund debt service reserves, and cover transaction expenses. [13]
For equity holders, this is a double-edged sword:
- It can provide the capital needed to build on schedule and meet lease obligations.
- But it can also raise the bar for execution, because debt service and covenant complexity don’t care about market mood swings.
Commentary in the market has repeatedly returned to this point—AI infrastructure can be a generational buildout, but it is also capital-intensive and highly sensitive to financing terms.
Analyst Forecasts: Price Targets Point Higher, but the Path Isn’t Straight
On the Street, the consensus tone remains bullish—but with wide dispersion typical of a high-volatility name.
- TipRanks shows an average 12-month price target around $42.78, with a high estimate up to $56 and a low estimate around $35 (based on recent analyst targets aggregated there). [14]
Against today’s ~$24 handle, that implies sizable upside—if execution goes smoothly and the AI data center cycle stays hot. - The next major scheduled catalyst is earnings: Applied Digital said it will report fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025) after the market closes on January 7, 2026, followed by a 5:00 p.m. ET conference call. [15]
Zacks likewise flags January 7, 2026 as the next earnings date and provides an earnings estimate expectation (subject to change). [16]
What typically moves APLD on earnings won’t just be EPS—it’s any update on:
- lease ramp timing and commissioning milestones,
- capital structure plans and cost of capital,
- and whether new hyperscaler discussions convert into signed contracts.
The Debate in Current Market Analysis: Valuation vs. Execution
Recent analysis pieces have split into two camps:
Camp 1: “AI picks-and-shovels” optimism
A recent Nasdaq-hosted analysis highlights how much investor enthusiasm has expanded APLD’s valuation and notes the stock’s dramatic 2025 run—while also warning that a rich valuation can be a headwind if growth expectations cool. [17]
Camp 2: “Debt and valuation risk” caution
Trefis, for example, characterized a sharp December pullback as reflecting concerns about high valuations and profit-taking after a big rally, framing resilience as a key question if broader markets wobble. [18]
Other commentary has similarly emphasized leverage and the sector’s debt appetite, though investors should treat opinion pieces as perspectives—not facts. [19]
A useful lens here is the broader market mood: Reuters notes investors are watching the Fed’s path closely, with the S&P 500 near key milestones and attention on upcoming Fed minutes—while thin year-end volumes can amplify volatility. [20]
That macro sensitivity can matter for APLD because high-multiple, capital-hungry growth stories often react strongly to shifting rate expectations.
One More Volatility Fuel: High Short Interest
Applied Digital also screens as a stock the market likes to fight over.
MarketBeat data shows that as of December 15, 2025, APLD had about 78.69 million shares sold short, representing roughly 31% of the public float, with a days-to-cover figure around 3.1. [21]
High short interest doesn’t tell you direction, but it does help explain why APLD can gap hard in both directions on news, financing updates, or broad AI sentiment shifts.
Is the Stock Market Open Right Now—and What to Know Before the Next Session
Yes. At 12:47 p.m. ET today, U.S. equities are trading during regular hours (typically 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). [22]
Two practical notes for investors trading APLD into year-end:
- Holiday liquidity is still in effect. Schwab explicitly cautioned that low volume can create sharper moves and lower conviction price action. [23]
- Know the calendar. The NYSE holiday calendar shows early closes around key holidays (for example, the Dec. 24 early close), and the post-holiday sessions can behave differently than normal weeks. [24]
If you’re thinking beyond today, the next regular session after Friday is Monday, Dec. 29, 2025, with the market still in a year-end flow where repositioning and thin participation can move prices faster than fundamentals might justify.
What Investors Are Watching Next for Applied Digital Stock (APLD)
Going into the final trading days of 2025 and early 2026, APLD’s “things that matter” list is unusually crisp:
- Contract conversion: Will management’s stated negotiations with another investment-grade hyperscaler translate into signed leases (and on what terms)? [25]
- Buildout timelines: Can Polaris Forge capacity come online on schedule (2026–2027 for key phases) and transition from buildout revenue to recurring lease income? [26]
- Cost of capital: How does the company balance preferred equity, loans, and secured debt—especially after issuing high-coupon notes? [27]
- Earnings on Jan. 7: Updates on commissioning, customer ramp, financing, and forward expectations may matter more than the quarter’s headline EPS. [28]
- Macro crosswinds: Fed communications and rate expectations can sway capital-intensive growth names—particularly during thin year-end volume. [29]
Applied Digital is a classic 2025 market creature: a company tied to a very real AI infrastructure land-grab, financed in a way that can supercharge growth or magnify mistakes. In a quiet tape like today’s, that tension can show up as outsized swings—even when the overall market barely budges. [30]
References
1. www.schwab.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. ir.applieddigital.com, 4. ir.applieddigital.com, 5. ir.applieddigital.com, 6. ir.applieddigital.com, 7. ir.applieddigital.com, 8. ir.applieddigital.com, 9. ir.applieddigital.com, 10. ir.applieddigital.com, 11. ir.applieddigital.com, 12. ir.applieddigital.com, 13. ir.applieddigital.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. ir.applieddigital.com, 16. www.zacks.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.trefis.com, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.schwab.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. ir.applieddigital.com, 26. ir.applieddigital.com, 27. ir.applieddigital.com, 28. ir.applieddigital.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. apnews.com
