Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Stock Jumps on New Macquarie Loan Facility: Today’s News, Analyst Forecasts, and What to Watch Next

Applied Digital Corporation stock (NASDAQ: APLD) is snapping back on December 18, 2025, after a choppy week for “AI infrastructure” names. Shares were trading around $23.63 in midday U.S. trading, up roughly $1.63 (about 7.4%) from the prior close, with heavy volume as investors reacted to fresh financing news. ^[1]

That bounce matters because it arrives in the middle of a broader market argument: is the AI data-center boom still a gold rush—or are lenders and investors starting to ask harder questions about who pays for all this concrete, copper, power gear, and GPUs? Recent headlines around data-center financing (including high-profile uncertainty around big AI buildouts) have been pressuring the whole complex. ^[2]

What happened today: Applied Digital secures a development loan facility with Macquarie

Applied Digital announced it has entered into a loan facility with Macquarie Group’s Commodities and Global Markets business to fund pre-lease development costs for new data center projects. The facility was entered into on December 18, 2025 via APLD DevCo LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary, and is intended to support early-stage site work—sourcing, planning, development, and construction—before a lease is signed. ^[3]

The headline detail investors immediately locked onto: Applied Digital says it’s in advanced-stage negotiations with another investment‑grade hyperscaler for multiple campuses, and that the initial $100 million in draws from this facility is intended to support development activities tied to those negotiations. ^[4]

A few additional transaction specifics were also disclosed:

Northland Securities served as sole placement agent. ^[5]
Lowenstein Sandler acted as counsel to Applied Digital; Latham & Watkins represented the lender. ^[6]

In plain English: this is “get the land/power/permitting/design work moving now” capital, designed to help Applied Digital move faster without committing to full construction financing before customer commitments are firm. ^[7]

Why the market cared: pre-lease funding is about speed—and optionality

In AI-grade data centers, the bottleneck is rarely “do we have demand?” It’s usually execution constraints: power interconnects, transformer lead times, site readiness, cooling design, and construction sequencing.

That’s why a “pre‑lease development” facility can be strategically meaningful. It can let Applied Digital:

Advance multiple sites in parallel (so it’s not waiting on one site to clear each gate),
Align spending with customer demand (management’s stated intent),
And potentially shorten the timeline between “hyperscaler wants capacity” and “we can deliver it.” ^[8]

The flip side (and investors know it): pre‑lease work is still risk capital. If a negotiation stalls, the company could be left holding early-stage costs that don’t immediately convert into long-term contracted revenue.

The bigger APLD story in 2025: from “AI hype stock” to contracted AI factory buildout

Today’s Macquarie facility is best understood as one more brick in a year-long buildout narrative. Applied Digital has been stacking long-duration lease announcements, funding structures, and construction milestones—the stuff that turns an AI-infrastructure “story” into a real operating platform.

1) The $5 billion Polaris Forge 2 lease (200 MW) with an investment-grade hyperscaler

On October 22, 2025, Applied Digital announced a roughly $5 billion, ~15-year lease with a U.S.-based investment-grade hyperscaler for 200 MW of critical IT load at its Polaris Forge 2 campus in North Dakota. The same customer holds a right of first refusal for an additional 800 MW, reflecting the site’s stated 1 GW expansion potential. ^[9]

Applied Digital also described aggressive efficiency targets for Polaris Forge 2, including a projected PUE of 1.18 and near-zero water consumption, and stated that the initial 200 MW is expected to start coming online in 2026, reaching 200 MW in 2027. ^[10]

2) CoreWeave leases: the $7B headline that made APLD a household ticker (in finance circles)

Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported Applied Digital signed two 15‑year leases with CoreWeave expected to generate about $7 billion over the lease period. ^[11]

Later, Reuters reported Applied Digital finalized an additional 150 MW lease agreement with CoreWeave, bringing the company’s total anticipated contracted lease revenue (including the earlier CoreWeave leases) to about $11 billion. ^[12]

3) “Fully energized” milestone at Polaris Forge 1: the first 100 MW building hits full critical load

On November 24, 2025, Applied Digital announced it completed Phase II “ready for service” at Polaris Forge 1, bringing the first building to full 100 MW capacity. The company framed this as proof of execution reliability for high-density AI builds. ^[13]

In the same release, Applied Digital said the earlier hyperscaler lease helped bring total contracted revenue to approximately $16 billion across both North Dakota campuses (as stated by the company). ^[14]

4) Funding the build: the $2.35B senior secured notes and the Macquarie relationship

Applied Digital’s expansion is capital-intensive, and 2025 has been full of financing headlines.

Applied Digital disclosed a plan to issue $2.35 billion of senior secured notes due 2030 through a subsidiary. ^[15]
Investing.com later summarized that the notes were issued at an issue price of 97% and that proceeds were earmarked for construction and related expenses at the Ellendale campus plus debt repayment and transaction costs (per its reporting). ^[16]

Separately, Applied Digital has emphasized Macquarie Asset Management as a major infrastructure funding partner, including a facility described as up to $5.0 billion to support high‑performance computing growth (as characterized in Macquarie’s own materials and earlier reporting). ^[17]

Put together: today’s Macquarie development loan facility looks like an extension of an already-deep financing relationship—now aimed specifically at pre‑lease site development. ^[18]

Earnings snapshot: fast revenue growth, but investors still debate “quality” and cash burn

Applied Digital’s most recent widely covered quarterly catalyst came in October.

Reuters reported that for the quarter ended August 31, 2025 (fiscal Q1 2026), revenue rose 84% to $64.2 million, beating the analyst estimate of $50 million (LSEG data). Adjusted loss was $0.03 per share, smaller than analysts expected (Reuters cited $0.13 expected). ^[19]

That kind of top-line growth is exactly what momentum investors want in an AI infrastructure buildout. But it’s not the whole story—and the market has been increasingly sensitive to the “how is this funded?” question.

For example, Investing.com highlighted concerns including negative free cash flow and a current ratio around 0.65 (based on its InvestingPro data), while also noting the stock’s volatility. ^[20]

Analyst forecasts for APLD stock: bullish overall, but price targets are all over the map

Applied Digital is one of those stocks where “consensus” depends heavily on which consensus you’re looking at.

What Reuters/LSEG said (brokerage consensus)

In October, Reuters reported that all nine brokerages covering Applied Digital rated it “buy” or higher, with a median price target of $40 (LSEG data). ^[21]

What MarketBeat shows (platform aggregate)

MarketBeat currently lists:

Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
Average 12‑month price target:$26.20
Range:$7.00 (low) to $41.00 (high) ^[22]

What TradingView shows (another platform aggregate)

TradingView lists:

Price target:$42.90
Range:$37.00 to $56.00
And notes next-quarter revenue expected around $86.66 million (as displayed on its forecast page). ^[23]

Why the spread is so wide

This isn’t just “analysts disagreeing.” A lot of it is mechanical:

Different platforms include different analysts, different update windows, and sometimes stale targets.
Applied Digital’s own IR site lists the analysts/firms that follow it (useful for knowing who’s in the conversation), but does not publish a company-endorsed target. ^[24]

Bottom line: Wall Street sentiment has skewed positive, but investors should treat any single “average target” as a squishy estimate, not a destination sign.

Short interest and volatility: APLD remains a trader’s arena

Applied Digital’s stock action isn’t just “AI theme” volatility—it’s also structurally volatile.

MarketBeat reports that as of November 28, 2025, Applied Digital had short interest of about 80.34 million shares, roughly 31.87% of the public float, with a days-to-cover figure around 3.0 (based on its calculations). ^[25]

High short interest can mean:

There’s a meaningful cohort betting against the story (valuation, dilution risk, tenant risk, execution risk),
But it also increases the odds of sharp upside squeezes when news hits (like today’s financing headline).

Either way, it’s gasoline on the volatility fire.

The macro cloud over AI infrastructure stocks: financing anxiety is the new “rate hike”

Applied Digital didn’t trade in a vacuum this week. The broader AI complex has been rattled by a market fear that’s painfully simple: what if capital gets more expensive right when everyone needs more of it?

MarketWatch described a sharp pullback across multiple AI-related stocks amid growing concerns about data-center financing, tied in part to uncertainty around large projects and whether debt financing remains as available (and cheap) as the market previously assumed. ^[26]

One widely cited example this week: reporting around Oracle’s Michigan data center project, where Blue Owl was said to be stepping back from funding talks (with Oracle and partners disputing aspects of the narrative). The episode still added to investor nerves about the funding machinery behind huge AI buildouts. ^[27]

Why this matters specifically for Applied Digital

Reuters Breakingviews recently laid out a core risk in the AI data-center gold rush: tenant credit quality and the cost of capital. In its discussion of developers building for “neo-cloud” tenants (including Applied Digital’s relationship with CoreWeave), Breakingviews argued that financing terms can swing dramatically based on perceived tenant risk, and that small changes in interest rates or valuation assumptions can materially impact project returns. ^[28]

This doesn’t mean Applied Digital’s model is broken. It means the market is increasingly focused on:

Who the tenants are (hyperscaler vs neo-cloud),
What the lease terms look like,
And what the financing stack costs at each new campus.

What to watch next: near-term catalysts for Applied Digital (APLD) stock

With the Macquarie development loan facility now in place, the next set of catalysts looks fairly clear—even if the timing isn’t.

1) A new hyperscaler deal (or deals)

Applied Digital explicitly said it is in advanced negotiations with another investment‑grade hyperscaler for multiple campuses. Any signed lease(s) here would likely be a major stock-moving event, because it could convert “pre‑lease development” into long-duration contracted revenue. ^[29]

2) More “ready for service” and power-up milestones

The market has rewarded Applied Digital when it demonstrates execution—especially at Polaris Forge sites. Another batch of on-time delivery milestones would reinforce the “can they actually build at hyperscale speed?” narrative. ^[30]

3) Financing terms and dilution risk

In this sector, “great pipeline” and “great shareholder returns” are not automatically the same thing—because capital needs are so large. Investors are hypersensitive to:

New debt terms,
Equity raises,
Or any changes in partner funding structures.

4) Tenant risk and the credit cycle

The entire AI infrastructure trade is being forced to think like a credit analyst again. If the market’s view of data-center tenants deteriorates—or if lenders demand meaningfully higher spreads—expect volatility to remain the default state. ^[31]

Takeaway: APLD’s story got a boost today—but the market’s bar is higher now

Applied Digital’s December 18 loan facility with Macquarie gave investors something concrete: capital to move faster on new AI data center campuses, with management signaling active late-stage negotiations with an investment‑grade hyperscaler. ^[32]

But the broader environment has shifted. In late 2025, AI infrastructure stocks are being judged less on “AI excitement” and more on:

financing durability,
tenant quality,
execution pace, and
the ability to turn massive capex plans into contracted, financeable cash flows.

APLD stock can still run hard on good news (today is proof). It can also drop fast when the market starts asking uncomfortable questions about leverage, dilution, or the cost of capital. That’s the trade: the modern AI “picks-and-shovels” business is also a modern credit-and-execution business.

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