NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 5:05 a.m. ET — Market Closed
Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) stock is heading into the final trading stretch of 2025 with investors weighing two forces that don’t always play nicely together: the booming demand narrative around AI data centers—and the brutally impatient reality of market volatility.
With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, APLD’s next real price discovery moment will come when trading resumes Monday. That sets up a familiar weekend dynamic for high-beta, high-short-interest names: headlines marinate, sentiment hardens, and Monday’s open can gap hard in either direction.
APLD stock recap: Friday slide into the weekend
Applied Digital shares last closed at $24.05 on Friday, Dec. 26, after falling roughly 6.5% on the day. The stock traded as low as $23.96 intraday, with about 15.26 million shares changing hands—well below its recent average, which can matter in thin, late-December trading. [1]
The broader market backdrop wasn’t exactly screaming “risk-on fireworks,” either. Wall Street ended that session close to record levels but nearly unchanged in light, post-holiday trading, snapping a short rally while still logging weekly gains. [2]
A key point for context: Applied Digital is the kind of stock that can move like it drank three energy drinks and then heard a rumor. MarketBeat lists APLD with a notably high beta (a rough measure of volatility versus the market). [3]
Why this week matters: “Santa Claus rally” season meets year-end positioning
The market is also in the window traders like to mythologize as the “Santa Claus rally” period—late-year sessions that sometimes show an upward bias. Reuters quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, describing the late-week pause as a post-holiday breather after a strong run. [4]
Whether or not you believe in seasonal market magic, year-end positioning can amplify moves in smaller, more volatile stocks—especially those tied to the AI infrastructure narrative.
The biggest near-term catalyst: Applied Digital earnings on Jan. 7
The most immediate item on the calendar is Applied Digital’s fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report and conference call, scheduled for Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026, with results released after the market closes and a 5:00 p.m. ET call time. The quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025. [5]
Recent coverage in the last 24 hours has centered on that date for a reason: earnings is where companies either validate the “AI buildout” story with numbers—or feed the bears with fresh doubts. Motley Fool’s latest APLD note highlighted the Jan. 7 event and pointed to consensus expectations including revenue growth and a still-negative earnings profile. [6]
What investors typically watch for in APLD’s report:
- Revenue trajectory (especially as new capacity comes online and contracts begin flowing through reported results)
- Cash usage and financing needs (data-center buildouts are capital-hungry by nature)
- Updates on leasing momentum (who’s signing, for how much capacity, and on what terms)
Financing and buildout: the Macquarie facility and what it signals
Applied Digital has been actively building out data-center capacity aimed at high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads. In mid-December, the company announced a $100 million development loan facility with Macquarie Equipment Capital to help fund pre-lease development costs for new data center projects. In the same announcement, CEO Wes Cummins pointed to “advanced-stage negotiations” with another investment-grade hyperscaler for multiple AI-focused campuses. [7]
The company’s Form 8-K provides additional detail on the financing mechanics. It describes an arrangement including a $45 million first draw funded at closing and a $55 million second draw that is discretionary/uncommitted, with interest terms that include an 8% rate and a period where interest can be paid in kind before shifting to cash payments. [8]
For investors, this matters because it frames the next phase of the story: not just “AI demand exists,” but “how efficiently can APLD finance and deliver capacity into that demand without crushing shareholders with dilution or expensive debt?”
Analyst outlook: moderate buy consensus, but targets vary widely
Wall Street’s stance—at least as aggregated by MarketBeat—leans constructive. MarketBeat reports:
- A consensus rating of “Moderate Buy”
- A consensus price target of $26.20
- A spread of analyst opinions skewed heavily toward Buy ratings [9]
The same MarketBeat roundup notes several firms maintaining Buy/Outperform-style ratings and mentions targets as high as $40 from firms including Northland Securities and H.C. Wainwright (per the report’s summary of analyst actions). [10]
On the more data-aggregator side, TradingView’s analyst compilation (sourced via FactSet/ICE data references on the page) lists an APLD price target of $42.90, with a range of $37 to $56, and characterizes the overall analyst rating as “Strong buy.” [11]
The takeaway isn’t “pick the highest target and party.” It’s that APLD sits in a high-uncertainty lane where analysts disagree—often because small changes in assumptions (lease timing, cost of capital, buildout pace) can dramatically alter valuation.
The volatility accelerant: APLD’s high short interest
If you’re wondering why APLD can whipsaw so violently, here’s a big mechanical reason: short interest.
MarketBeat reports that as of Dec. 15, 2025, Applied Digital had about 78.69 million shares sold short, representing roughly 31% of the public float, with about 3.1 days to cover based on average volume. [12]
High short interest doesn’t automatically mean a “short squeeze” is coming. It does mean the stock can react more aggressively to surprises—especially around earnings, major contract updates, or financing news—because positioning is crowded and liquidity can get weird fast.
What the company last reported: strong revenue growth, still unprofitable
Applied Digital’s most recently reported quarter (fiscal Q1 2026) showed 84% year-over-year revenue growth to $64.2 million, versus $34.8 million in the prior-year period, according to the company’s October results release. [13]
That’s the “AI infrastructure demand” narrative in numeric form. The flip side is that rapid expansion tends to come with heavy costs—construction, power, equipment, staffing, and financing—so profitability (and cash flow) remains a central investor debate.
Market status: what investors should know before the next session
Because U.S. markets are closed on weekends, the next session is Monday, with the regular trading day running 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET (with premarket and after-hours sessions depending on venue/broker rules). [14]
Before Monday’s open, investors focused on Applied Digital stock (APLD) will typically want to keep an eye on:
1) Any weekend news or filings
APLD has been active on the financing and development front recently, so unexpected updates—especially involving leasing, funding, or construction timelines—can move the stock quickly once liquidity returns.
2) Broader risk appetite
Reuters’ post-holiday wrap underscores how thin liquidity can be late in December, even as indexes hover near highs. That backdrop can magnify single-stock moves. [15]
3) Positioning risk into Jan. 7 earnings
With the earnings date close, traders often “pre-position” via shares and options. In a stock with high short interest, that can create sharp, reflexive moves on relatively small catalysts. [16]
4) Analyst target dispersion
When consensus targets range from the mid-$20s (MarketBeat) to the $40s-plus (TradingView’s compilation), it’s a signal that expectations are not neatly anchored. That can raise volatility around new datapoints. [17]
Bottom line for APLD stock heading into Monday
Applied Digital enters the new week as a classic “AI infrastructure” momentum-and-mechanics stock: a big narrative, big capital needs, and big swings.
The key near-term question isn’t philosophical—it’s operational: Can APLD keep converting its data-center buildout into durable, financeable lease revenue while managing dilution and debt risk? Investors will be looking for progress markers ahead of (and then inside) the Jan. 7 earnings report. [18]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. ir.applieddigital.com, 6. www.fool.com, 7. ir.applieddigital.com, 8. ir.applieddigital.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. ir.applieddigital.com, 14. www.fidelity.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. ir.applieddigital.com
