Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock Hits New Highs as Wall Street Lifts Targets on AI Boom

Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) continues to ride the AI infrastructure wave, with the stock pushing to fresh 52‑week highs around $259–$261 on December 2, 2025. That’s roughly a 41% gain over the past year, with a new high near $261.71 and a 52‑week range of about $123.74–$261.71. ^[1]

At the same time, analysts are busily lifting price targets, new institutional money is flowing into the name, and the company is digesting export controls and layoffs that could shave hundreds of millions off 2026 revenue. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts, and expert analyses as of December 2, 2025 to give an up‑to‑date, Google‑News‑ready view of AMAT stock.

Key takeaways for AMAT stock on December 2, 2025

Stock near record highs: AMAT recently traded around $260, after touching an intraday high near $261.71, and is up about 41% over the past 12 months. ^[3]
Valuation stretched vs history: The trailing P/E is ~30x, roughly 60–70% above its 10‑year average, though still below many semiconductor equipment peers like KLAC and LRCX. ^[4]
Big new price targets today:
- KeyBanc raised its target to $285 and reiterated Overweight, calling AMAT attractively valued relative to peers and positioned for a multi‑year AI‑driven upcycle. ^[5]
- Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $273 (from $252), also at Overweight. ^[6]
UBS already went to $285 last week, arguing AMAT will be the biggest beneficiary of a DRAM spending “super‑cycle” and forecasting wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending to jump more than 20% in 2026 and keep growing in 2027. ^[7]
Record fiscal 2025 numbers: Revenue hit $28.37B (+4% YoY) with record non‑GAAP EPS of $9.42, even as Q4 revenue slipped ~3.5% year over year. Q4 EPS of $2.17 beat consensus. Finviz+3TS2 Tech+3StockAnalysis+3
Guidance and Street forecasts:
- Company guides Q1 FY2026 revenue to about $6.85B ± $0.5B and non‑GAAP EPS of $2.18 ± $0.20. TS2 Tech+1
- Zacks consensus sees FY2025 EPS ~$9.51 (+1% YoY) and FY2026 EPS ~$11.01 (+15.8%) on revenue rising to $31.71B. ^[8]
Restructuring and export‑control overhang: AMAT is cutting about 1,400 jobs (~4% of staff) and expects a $600M hit to fiscal 2026 revenue from tightened U.S. export rules on China. ^[9]
Valuation views split:
- Trefis (Dec 2) calls the stock “fairly priced” with strong profitability but high valuation and limited “downturn resilience.” ^[10]
- Several target‑price aggregators show average 12‑month targets below the current price, suggesting limited upside at today’s levels despite overwhelmingly positive ratings. ^[11]

How AMAT stock is trading now

Price & performance snapshot

Recent price: Around $259–$261 intraday on December 2, 2025, with real‑time quotes from Cboe BZX showing about $260.66 in morning trade. ^[12]
52‑week range: Approximately $123.74 – $261.71. ^[13]
1‑year performance: About +41% over the past 12 months. ^[14]

The rally has accelerated since mid‑November, when AMAT delivered record fiscal 2025 results and a wave of analyst upgrades began to hit the tape. Shares have climbed from the low‑$220s before earnings to the high‑$250s and now low‑$260s within just a few weeks. TS2 Tech+1

Valuation vs history and peers

Several data providers put AMAT’s trailing P/E around 30x:

FullRatio calculates a P/E of 30.18 based on a price of $254.75 and TTM EPS of $8.44, noting that this is 67% above the 10‑year average P/E of ~18 and at the high end of its historical range. ^[15]
CompaniesMarketCap similarly estimates a TTM P/E ~30.2 as of December 2025. ^[16]

Relative to peers:

AMAT trades cheaper than Lam Research and KLA on P/E (mid‑30s for both), but richer than Axcelis and some smaller equipment names. ^[17]
GuruFocus highlights a P/S ratio near 7.3, close to a 10‑year high, and flags both P/E and P/S as “premium” versus AMAT’s own history. ^[18]

The market is clearly willing to pay up for AMAT’s blend of AI exposure, high margins, and strong balance sheet, but the stock is no longer cheap on traditional metrics.

What the newest analyst calls are saying

Fresh upgrades and target hikes (late November – December 2)

1. UBS: From Neutral to Buy, target to $285

On November 25, UBS upgraded AMAT from Neutral to Buy and raised its 12‑month price target to $285 from $250. The firm now expects a “significantly more bullish” WFE market in 2026–27, projecting WFE spending to rise more than 20% in 2026 to about $136.5B, with DRAM investment providing over half of the expected $25B jump. ^[19]

UBS argues that, within its coverage universe, AMAT stands out as the largest beneficiary of this DRAM spending surge, given its leading positions in deposition, etch, and advanced packaging tools used in AI‑centric memory and logic chips. ^[20]

2. KeyBanc: Target raised to $285, “valuation edge” vs peers (Dec 2)

KeyBanc today maintained an Overweight rating and lifted its target from $240 to $285, implying high‑single‑to‑low‑double‑digit upside from recent levels. ^[21]

In commentary summarized by Seeking Alpha, KeyBanc says AMAT “holds a superior valuation” within the semiconductor equipment group despite its elevated multiples, because it offers:

Broader exposure across leading‑edge logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging, and
A favorable risk/reward profile entering what the firm sees as a multi‑year demand cycle driven by AI uses and devices. ^[22]

3. Morgan Stanley: Target nudged to $273, still Overweight (Dec 2)

Morgan Stanley also moved today, raising its target from $252 to $273 and reiterating an Overweight rating. MarketScreener shows an average Street target of about $246.72 based on 38 analysts, with a mean consensus of “Outperform,” so Morgan Stanley’s $273 sits toward the bullish end of the range. ^[23]

4. Other major targets in the last two weeks

Recent target changes include:

UBS: $285 (Buy) – DRAM‑led WFE surge. ^[24]
TD Cowen: $260 (Buy). ^[25]
Bernstein, Argus, Berenberg, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Cantor Fitzgerald – a cluster of targets in the $250–$300 range, mostly with Buy/Outperform ratings. ^[26]

Where consensus sits vs the current price

Different aggregators show slightly different numbers, but they all share the same big picture: strong ratings, but average targets below today’s price.

MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy” with 20 Buys and 14 Holds and an average target around $229–$230, notably below the current ~$260. ^[27]
Barchart: Similar “Moderate Buy,” with a mean target near $220 and Street‑high around $265 (pre‑UBS/KeyBanc moves). ^[28]
Simply Wall St: 32 analysts, average $246.72 vs a last close of $254.75, describing the target as ~3% below the current share price. ^[29]
StockAnalysis: 27 analysts, average $226.67, implying ~12% downside from the latest price but still an overall “Buy” rating. ^[30]

Trefis (December 2) takes a more explicit stance: with AMAT at around $252–$255, it estimates fair value near $204, a roughly 19% downside, but still labels the stock “Fairly Priced” because of its very strong profitability, balance sheet, and operating performance. ^[31]

Zacks and GuruFocus: Strong business, premium price

Zacks currently rates AMAT a Rank #3 (Hold), noting that:
- FY2025 EPS estimate has ticked up to $9.51 (+1% YoY),
- FY2026 EPS is projected at $11.01 (+15.8%), and
- Revenue is forecast to climb to $31.71B (+9.7% YoY). ^[32]
But Zacks also gives AMAT a Value Style Score of “D”, indicating it screens as expensive relative to peers on traditional valuation metrics. ^[33]
GuruFocus describes financial health as excellent — revenue growth around 6% CAGR, operating margin ~30%, net margin ~25%, current ratio ~2.6, and debt‑to‑equity near 0.3 — but flags that the P/E and P/S are close to 3‑year or 10‑year highs, signaling a premium valuation. ^[34]

Earnings, AI demand, and the growth story

Record fiscal 2025 results

For fiscal 2025 (year ended October 26, 2025), AMAT reported: Finviz+3TS2 Tech+3StockAnalysis+3

Revenue: $28.37B, +4% YoY
GAAP EPS: $8.66, +1% YoY
Non‑GAAP EPS: $9.42, +9% YoY
Q4 revenue: $6.80B, –3.5% YoY
Q4 non‑GAAP EPS: $2.17 (down from $2.32 a year ago but above consensus of roughly $2.11)
Net margin: ~24%
Return on equity: ~41%

Gross and operating margins remain among the best in large‑cap semicap: full‑year non‑GAAP gross margin hovered near 49%, with operating margins close to 29–30%. TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2

Guidance and Street models

Management’s Q1 FY2026 guidance calls for: TS2 Tech+2SiliconANGLE+2

Revenue: about $6.85B ± $0.5B
Non‑GAAP EPS:$2.18 ± $0.20

Zacks consensus is broadly aligned, looking for Q1 EPS of ~$2.21 (–7.1% YoY) and sales of $6.86B (–4.3% YoY) as the industry works through a mixed capex environment before the expected DRAM‑heavy upcycle in 2026–27. ^[35]

Over a longer horizon, the Street is modeling low‑single‑digit growth in FY2025 and a re‑acceleration to high‑single‑digit revenue and mid‑teens EPS growth in FY2026, driven by:

AI data‑center demand for advanced logic and HBM (high‑bandwidth memory),
A rebound in DRAM and NAND capital spending, and
Continued adoption of advanced packaging and specialty processes (e.g., backside power, 2.5D/3D integration). ^[36]

The AI super‑cycle narrative

Across UBS, KeyBanc, and other bullish notes, the core thesis is that AMAT is levered to the “AI build‑out” at multiple layers:

Leading positions in deposition and etch for advanced logic nodes used in AI accelerators. ^[37]
Strong exposure to DRAM equipment, which UBS and others see entering a multi‑year spending super‑cycle as AI servers pack in more memory per GPU. ^[38]
A growing role in advanced packaging, which is critical for chiplet‑based AI architectures. TS2 Tech+1

Zacks’ “Margins Expand” piece highlights that AMAT’s high‑margin chip tools plus tight cost control have let it expand margins even while continuing to invest heavily in R&D — an encouraging sign for AI‑driven operating leverage. ^[39]

Export controls, layoffs, and China risk

The bullish AI story exists alongside serious policy and cycle risks, most of them tied to China and U.S. export rules.

New export rules and 2026 revenue hit

In late October, Reuters reported that Applied Materials expects about a $600M hit to fiscal 2026 revenue from expanded U.S. restrictions on shipping advanced chipmaking gear to China and certain foreign subsidiaries. ^[40]

Those curbs are designed to prevent companies (especially Chinese fabs) from routing restricted tools through overseas affiliates. For AMAT, which historically generated well over a third of sales from China, this is a real drag on near‑term growth even as demand elsewhere is rising. ^[41]

Layoffs and restructuring

At almost the same time, AMAT announced that it would: ^[42]

Cut about 4% of its global workforce — roughly 1,400–1,444 jobs —
Take $160–$180M in restructuring charges, mostly in Q4 FY2025, and
Rebalance its workforce as automation and digitalization reshape its operations.

Local reporting around Silicon Valley shows that the layoffs are broad, hitting engineers, technicians, finance and legal staff, and even a double‑digit number of vice presidents, with about 350 roles cut in the Bay Area alone. ^[43]

TechCrunch lists Applied Materials among 2025 tech companies trimming headcount, noting that the cuts are directly linked to tighter export controls and the need to streamline operations. ^[44]

Investor takeaway: The restructuring should help keep margins elevated and offset some of the China drag, but it underscores how dependent AMAT’s short‑term numbers are on the policy landscape — and how management is having to move aggressively to stay ahead of it.

Who is buying and selling AMAT?

Big money flows

Quiver Quantitative’s aggregated 13F data shows over 1,000 institutions increasing their AMAT positions and a similar number trimming them in the most recent quarter, with particularly large additions from major asset managers like UBS Asset Management, Capital Research Global Investors, Ameriprise, and Coatue. ^[45]

MarketBeat’s Dec 2 filings highlight several notable moves: ^[46]

Isthmus Partners LLC boosted its stake by 20.2% to nearly 74,000 shares.
Westerkirk Capital Inc. opened a new 23,300‑share position worth about $4.27M.
Fisher Asset Management trimmed its holding by 31.3%, selling 132,220 shares but still owning nearly 290,000 shares valued above $53M.

Across datasets, institutional ownership hovers around 80–81%, signaling that AMAT remains a core holding for many funds even as some rotate profits. ^[47]

Insider activity

GuruFocus and MarketBeat both flag modest insider selling in recent months — including a senior vice president selling 4,000 shares and a controller selling several hundred shares — but the total amounts are small relative to overall insider holdings and market cap. ^[48]

What forecasts say about AMAT from here

Putting together company guidance, Street models, and valuation work:

Revenue growth: Low‑single‑digit in FY2025 with a pickup to roughly 10% growth in FY2026 as DRAM and AI‑related capex ramps. ^[49]
EPS growth: Around 1% this year and mid‑teens next year, per Zacks consensus. ^[50]
Price targets:
- Average Street targets mostly in the mid‑$220s to mid‑$240s,
- Bullish houses (UBS, KeyBanc, some others) clustered at $273–$300,
- A few valuation‑sensitive models (e.g., Trefis, some Barchart‑style fair‑value screens) pointing to meaningful downside from current prices. ^[51]

Zacks’ bottom line: AMAT is a trending stock with upward earnings revisions and best‑in‑class margins, but with a Hold rating and a valuation grade of D, Zacks expects it to perform roughly in line with the market in the near term rather than dramatically outperform. ^[52]

Trefis’ bottom line: High valuation, very strong profitability, and solid balance sheet net out to a “fairly priced” stock after a 16% jump in just the last week. ^[53]

Key risks to watch

Beyond the usual macro and market risks, investors in AMAT should keep an eye on:

Cyclicality of semiconductor equipment
Even with AI tailwinds, WFE remains cyclical. Bitget’s longer‑form analysis earlier this year points out that many AI chips are being produced on re‑used capacity, meaning fabs don’t always need to buy as much new equipment as AI headlines might suggest. ^[54]
China and export controls
China is still a huge end market for AMAT. New U.S. controls and potential future rounds could further hit revenue beyond the currently estimated $600M in 2026. ^[55]
Valuation risk
With the P/E around 30x, notably above its 3‑, 5‑, and 10‑year averages, there is limited room for multiple expansion. Any wobble in AI spending or WFE forecasts could compress both earnings and multiples at the same time. ^[56]
Restructuring execution
The company is juggling large layoffs, export‑control compliance, and a major AI investment wave simultaneously. Poor execution could impact innovation, culture, or customer support, offsetting some of the expected margin benefits. ^[57]

Bottom line: How attractive is AMAT after the latest rally?

As of December 2, 2025, Applied Materials looks like:

A high‑quality, cash‑rich leader in semiconductor equipment,
Directly leveraged to the AI server and memory upcycle,
Generating record earnings and elite margins, with a modest dividend (about 0.7% yield on a $0.46 quarterly payout) and ongoing buybacks. ^[58]

But it also looks:

Expensive vs its own history,
Priced above most average analyst targets, and
Exposed to policy risk and classic semicap cyclicality even as AI demand booms. ^[59]

For long‑term investors who:

Believe in a sustained AI infrastructure build‑out,
Are comfortable with cyclical swings, and
Prefer dominant, system‑level suppliers over niche plays,

AMAT still looks like a core AI‑hardware infrastructure holding — just no longer at “bargain” prices.

For more valuation‑sensitive investors, today’s levels may warrant patience or phased entries, especially given that many fair‑value models now show little or no margin of safety.

Either way, AMAT is a stock where position sizing, time horizon, and risk tolerance matter as much as the AI story itself.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

References

Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock Hits New Highs as Wall Street Lifts Targets on AI Boom – December 2, 2025 Outlook