Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is back in focus on December 18, 2025, as the semiconductor equipment leader trades higher after a volatile week for chip-related names. A fresh price-target hike from B. Riley, an updated Mizuho target, and a new industry forecast for wafer-fab equipment spending are shaping the day’s narrative—while longer-running concerns about U.S. export restrictions and China demand continue to frame the debate.
As of 17:13 UTC on Thursday, AMAT traded at $254.13, up about 2.36% on the session, after opening near $259 and ranging between roughly $251.50 and $260.64.
AMAT stock price action: what investors are reacting to today
AMAT’s move on Thursday follows a sharp decline in the prior session. On Wednesday, Dec. 17, the stock fell 4.08% to $248.27, amid a broad market pullback, and finished about 10% below its recent 52-week high of $276.10 (set Dec. 10). MarketWatch
Thursday’s rebound looks tied less to a single company headline and more to a stack of “incremental positives”—analyst notes turning more constructive on semiconductor equipment into 2026–2027, plus continued investor focus on how AI-related capacity buildouts could lift spending across leading-edge logic, advanced memory (including HBM), and packaging.
Today’s AMAT headlines (Dec. 18, 2025)
Several pieces of coverage and data points are circulating on Dec. 18 that matter for AMAT stock watchers:
1) B. Riley raises AMAT price target to $305, keeps Buy
In the most direct “today” catalyst, B. Riley raised its price target on Applied Materials to $305 from $270 while maintaining a Buy rating (published the morning of Dec. 18). Streetinsider
At Thursday’s price near $254, that target implies roughly ~20% upside—a meaningful shift for traders who follow near-term analyst revisions.
2) Mizuho lifts target to $245, keeps Neutral
Mizuho increased its price target on AMAT to $245 from $205 while maintaining a Neutral rating, per market coverage distributed overnight into Dec. 18. Yahoo Finance
This is a useful counterweight to the B. Riley upgrade-like tone: Mizuho’s new target is still below where AMAT traded intraday Thursday, signaling a “good company, valuation already reflects a lot of optimism” perspective.
3) Short interest rises (bearish positioning edges up)
Short interest metrics also drew attention Thursday. One widely cited update shows short interest rising to about 18.98 million shares, roughly ~2.34% of float, with an estimated ~2.26 days to cover at recent volume. Benzinga
This is not an extreme “crowded short” by itself, but it does suggest some investors are leaning into downside hedges after the stock’s strong run and recent volatility.
4) Institutional ownership: Czech National Bank disclosed a larger stake
A separate filing-driven update highlights that Czech National Bank increased its AMAT stake by 2.6% in Q3, taking holdings to 203,818 shares valued around $41.73 million at the time of filing, after buying 5,229 shares. MarketBeat
These types of ownership moves rarely move the stock alone, but they contribute to the “who’s buying” narrative—especially when paired with buybacks.
Analyst “forecast stack”: price targets are rising, but consensus remains mixed
Stepping back from today’s two most-circulated notes (B. Riley and Mizuho), what stands out in December coverage is the breadth of target increases across the Street—often justified by the same theme: AI-driven semiconductor capex and rising process complexity that increases “equipment intensity” per wafer.
Here are several notable target moves that have hit wires in recent days:
- Wells Fargo raised its AMAT target to $290 from $255 and kept an Overweight rating, pointing to Applied’s positioning for 2026 WFE outperformance (and referencing the company’s 10-K timing). TipRanks
- Jefferies raised its target to $360 from $260 and maintained a Buy, explicitly linking the upgrade to AI lifting semiconductor capital spending across leading edge, DRAM, and packaging. TipRanks
- Cantor Fitzgerald has been associated with a $350 target and Overweight stance on AMAT in mid-December coverage and tracking. MarketBeat
But here’s the nuance that matters for an “AMAT stock forecast” story: even with multiple bullish raises, consensus targets are not unanimously aggressive.
MarketBeat’s tracked consensus (34 analysts) lists an average price target around $245.48, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus—an average that can sit below the stock at various moments, depending on the day’s price. MarketBeat
That divergence—very high top-end targets (e.g., $350–$360) versus a lower average—often happens when:
- the stock has already rallied substantially, and
- a meaningful block of analysts stays neutral until visibility improves (China demand, cycle timing, margins).
The bigger forecast: AI-driven chip expansion lifts equipment spending through 2027
AMAT is a bellwether for wafer fab equipment (WFE), so investors also track industry-level spending projections. This week, SEMI forecast a strong multi-year runway for wafer fab equipment:
- Reuters reporting on SEMI’s outlook points to global sales of wafer-manufacturing equipment rising ~9% to $126B in 2026, and ~7.3% to $135B in 2027, driven by logic and memory demand tied to AI. Reuters
- SEMI also projects total semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales reaching $145B in 2026 and $156B in 2027, with wafer fab equipment remaining the dominant category. SEMI
For Applied Materials specifically, this matters because the company has major exposure to:
- leading-edge logic transitions (new transistor architectures),
- advanced DRAM and HBM ramps,
- and the services “attach rate” that expands as fabs run hotter for longer.
Fundamentals: Applied’s FY2025 results, margins, and Q1 FY2026 guidance
While today’s tape is dominated by analyst notes, AMAT’s latest official financial baseline still anchors most valuation debates.
In its fiscal Q4 and full-year FY2025 results release (fiscal year ended Oct. 26, 2025), Applied reported:
- Record annual revenue of $28.37B (up 4% year-over-year)
- Record annual GAAP EPS of $8.66 and record annual non-GAAP EPS of $9.42
- Q4 revenue of $6.80B (down 3% YoY)
- FY2025 gross margin 48.7% GAAP and 48.8% non-GAAP (with detailed segment breakouts, including Applied Global Services revenue of $6.385B for FY2025) GlobeNewswire
For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Applied guided to:
- Revenue of $6.85B ± $500M
- Non-GAAP EPS of $2.18 ± $0.20 GlobeNewswire
Management also signaled it was preparing operations to support higher demand beginning in the second half of calendar 2026, a timeline that aligns with many Street models calling for a stronger back half as new nodes and AI infrastructure spending broaden. GlobeNewswire
Dividend and buybacks: capital returns remain part of the AMAT story
Applied is also being treated increasingly as a “growth + shareholder return” name—especially when cycle timing is debated.
The company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.46 per share, payable March 12, 2026 to shareholders of record Feb. 19, 2026. In FY2025, Applied returned nearly $6.3B via dividends and repurchases and ended the year with roughly $14B remaining on its buyback authorization, according to the company’s dividend release. GlobeNewswire
For AMAT stock, this matters because buybacks can cushion EPS growth during “digestion” periods—when revenue growth temporarily slows but margins and capital returns remain solid.
The risk backdrop that hasn’t gone away: China and export restrictions
Even as AI optimism lifts spending forecasts, geopolitics remain a persistent valuation overhang for U.S. chip-equipment leaders.
A Reuters report earlier in the cycle highlighted that Applied forecast reduced China spending next year due to tighter U.S. export curbs, noting estimates that China exposure had already come down from prior peaks. Reuters also referenced Applied’s previously discussed revenue impact tied to export restrictions (including discussion around an “affiliate rule” suspension that could re-enable some sales), plus operational changes such as workforce reductions. Reuters
Investors are watching two related questions into 2026:
- How quickly does non-China demand (U.S., Taiwan, Korea, Europe) scale to offset restrictions?
- Does the company gain share elsewhere (leading-edge logic, advanced memory, packaging) fast enough to maintain premium multiples?
What the “Dec. 18, 2025” coverage suggests about AMAT stock from here
Putting today’s updates together, the market’s current posture on Applied Materials looks like this:
- The bull case is strengthening around a multi-year AI capex runway, supported by SEMI’s WFE growth projections through 2027 and a wave of higher analyst targets (Jefferies, B. Riley, Wells Fargo, others). TradingView
- The cautious case is increasingly about timing and valuation: even after some target hikes, at least one major firm remains Neutral (Mizuho), consensus targets can lag the market price, and short interest has ticked higher. Yahoo Finance
- The “real-world constraint” case remains export policy and China demand uncertainty—an issue Reuters coverage has repeatedly linked to equipment suppliers’ near-term visibility. Reuters
For Google News readers, the key takeaway is that AMAT is being priced not just on the next quarter, but on how strongly the 2026–2027 build cycle materializes—and whether Applied can convert that cycle into share gains, resilient margins, and ongoing capital returns.
