Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is ending 2025 near all‑time highs, powered by AI‑driven chip demand, heavy institutional buying and a wave of bullish analyst calls — but also facing mounting questions about valuation and policy risk. Here’s a deep look at where the stock stands today, based on the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 10, 2025.
1. Applied Materials Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation Snapshot
As of the latest US session on December 10, 2025, Applied Materials stock trades around $273 per share, up about 2% on the day and very close to its record highs.
Recent performance metrics underscore just how powerful the 2025 rally has been:
- Year-to-date (2025) performance: roughly +63%, with 1‑, 3‑ and 5‑year gains of about +57.7%, +150.3% and +215%, respectively. [1]
- 1‑year performance vs sector: shares are up 56.1% over the past year, handily beating the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s ~24.8% gain. [2]
- 52‑week range: AMAT has recently traded between about $123.7 and $273.6, putting today’s price right near the top of its one‑year range. TechStock²
On valuation, multiple data sources show Applied Materials now trading at a trailing P/E around 30–32x, versus a 3‑ to 5‑year average closer to ~20x:
- Public and other market data put AMAT’s P/E at about 30–31x as of early December, roughly 40% above its 12‑month average and around 75% above its 10‑year average multiple. [3]
- Simply Wall St estimates a P/E of ~30.4x, slightly above their “fair” P/E of 29.6x, and notes a price‑to‑sales ratio of around 7.5x. [4]
- MarketBeat estimates a similar P/E around 31x, still below the very lofty Computer & Technology sector average but above AMAT’s own historical norms. [5]
In short: the market is valuing Applied less like a cyclical semiconductor equipment name and more like a structural AI infrastructure winner, with a premium multiple to match.
2. What’s New on December 10, 2025? Key Fresh Coverage
Several new pieces today and in the last few days frame the debate around AMAT’s run, valuation and AI-driven outlook.
2.1 Simply Wall St: “63% 2025 Rally” but DCF Says Overvalued
Simply Wall St published a detailed valuation note today, highlighting just how far AMAT has run in 2025: [6]
- Performance snapshot:
- Stock down a modest 0.6% over the last week,
- but up 13.6% over the past month,
- 63% year‑to‑date,
- 57.7% over one year, and
- 150.3% over three years.
- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) view:
- Their DCF model estimates intrinsic value around $157 per share.
- With the market price near the high‑$260s/$270s, the model implies the stock is about 70% above DCF-based fair value.
- Result: “Overvalued” on a pure DCF basis.
- Earnings multiple view:
- AMAT trades at about 30.4x earnings,
- below a semiconductor industry average near 38x and significantly below a peer group average around 43x.
- Their “Fair Ratio” framework puts a fair P/E at 29.6x, only slightly below today’s multiple — leading them to call valuation on this metric “about right.”
The takeaway: depending on whether you look at discounted cash flows or relative multiples, AMAT screens either significantly overvalued or roughly fairly valued.
2.2 FXEmpire: Big-Money Inflows and a 64% YTD Gain
FXEmpire’s December 10 feature emphasizes the role of institutional “Big Money” flows behind the rally: [7]
- AMAT shares are said to be up about 64% year‑to‑date.
- The stock has generated outlier inflow signals from institutional investors multiple times since the late 1990s, with shares up more than 3,500% since the first such signal in 1997.
- Key fundamental highlights in that piece:
- 3‑year EPS growth rate ~5.2%
- Profit margins around 24.7%
- EPS expected to grow ~19.2% this year, based on consensus estimates.
The article’s angle is that strong fundamentals + sustained institutional accumulation make AMAT a name “worth investigating” for investors tracking large‑volume buy signals.
2.3 Parameter.io: Momentum Cools, but AI and Institutions Still in Control
A new Parameter.io analysis describes AMAT as “catching its breath, not reversing”: [8]
- Price action:
- After a roughly 70% move in the last three months and more than 60% YTD, the stock is trading slightly below recent highs as the market pauses ahead of the Fed’s final 2025 policy decision.
- Pre‑market indications for December 10 had AMAT opening around $265, consistent with consolidation, not breakdown.
- Fundamental drivers:
- Fiscal 2025 closed with record revenue and earnings, powered by AI‑linked advanced-node tools, new DRAM capacity and high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) equipment. [9]
- Management expects fiscal 2026 to be back‑half weighted, as many fabs move from construction into heavy equipment‑loading later in the year.
- Risks:
- U.S. export controls, particularly those tied to China’s advanced semiconductor ambitions, remain a “persistent overhang.”
- Nonetheless, the market currently assumes robust AI infrastructure spending can offset regional/regulatory headwinds.
Overall message: short-term momentum is cooling, but institutional flows and AI demand still support the bullish long-term story.
2.4 Zacks / Nasdaq: “Rises 56% in a Year – Buy, Sell or Hold?”
A widely circulated Zacks analysis syndicated via Nasdaq notes that: [10]
- AMAT shares gained 56.1% in the past year,
- compared with 24.8% growth for the broader tech sector,
- and discusses whether investors should buy, hold or take profits after such a run.
The piece highlights traction across logic, DRAM and advanced packaging as key growth pillars, while acknowledging that valuation and export constraints complicate the near‑term risk/reward profile.
2.5 GuruFocus: High Quality Score, Strong Margins and Balance Sheet
A December 1 GuruFocus article assigns AMAT an impressive GF Score of 94 out of 100, indicating high long‑term outperformance potential in their framework. [11]
Key metrics they highlight:
- Financial strength rank: 8/10
- Profitability rank: 10/10
- Growth rank: 10/10
- Operating margin: ~29.9%
- Gross margin: ~48.7%, improving steadily over the last five years
- Altman Z‑Score: 9.67, suggesting very low financial‑distress risk
Their conclusion: Applied Materials combines robust balance sheet, high profitability and respectable growth in a way that justifies its position as a high‑quality compounder — even if the stock no longer looks cheap.
3. Earnings and Fundamentals: What Q4 FY 2025 Told Investors
Applied Materials reported its fourth-quarter and full‑year fiscal 2025 results on November 13, 2025, giving investors a detailed view of how the AI wave is reshaping its business. [12]
3.1 Headline Numbers
From the company’s official release:
- Q4 FY 2025 (quarter ended Oct. 26, 2025)
- Net revenue: $6.80 billion, down 3% YoY
- GAAP EPS: $2.38, up 14% YoY
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $2.17, down 6% YoY
- Non‑GAAP operating margin: 28.6%
- Full FY 2025
- Record annual revenue: $28.37 billion, up 4% YoY
- Record GAAP EPS: $8.66 (up 1% YoY)
- Record non‑GAAP EPS: $9.42 (up 9% YoY) [13]
Segment details show where the growth is coming from:
- Semiconductor Systems
- Q4 revenue: $4.76 billion (down 8% YoY)
- DRAM made up 29% of the segment vs 23% a year ago, while foundry/logic & other accounted for 65%. [14]
- Applied Global Services (AGS)
- Q4 revenue: $1.63 billion, down 1% YoY
- Operating margin: ~28%
3.2 Management Commentary: AI-Led Mix and 2026 Back-Half Acceleration
CEO Gary Dickerson framed 2025 as the company’s sixth consecutive year of growth, driven by AI‑linked advanced semiconductors and wafer‑fab equipment spending. [15]
CFO Brice Hill emphasized that:
- Customer conversations point to higher demand beginning in the second half of calendar 2026.
- The company is investing in R&D and capacity to support next‑generation transistors, DRAM and advanced packaging, which underpin AI accelerators and high‑bandwidth memory. [16]
Independent analysis from The Futurum Group reinforces that story:
- Q4 revenue of $6.8 billion slightly beat consensus of $6.7 billion.
- Non‑GAAP net income was about $1.7 billion, with EPS of $2.17.
- The results highlighted an AI‑focused wafer-fab equipment (WFE) mix, especially in leading‑edge foundry/logic and DRAM/HBM, where AMAT has strong process‑of‑record positions. [17]
China‑related revenue, once a bigger concern, has eased to about 25–29% of quarterly revenue, with management expecting 2026 WFE mix to shift further toward regions and nodes where AMAT’s portfolio is strongest. [18]
3.3 Near-Term Guidance
For Q1 FY 2026, Applied Materials guided to: [19]
- Revenue: about $6.85 billion ± $500 million
- Non‑GAAP EPS: about $2.18 ± $0.20
That outlook implies steady but not explosive growth in the near term, with management clearly signaling that the real acceleration is expected later in 2026 as AI‑related fab capacity ramps.
4. Analyst Ratings, Targets and Forecasts
4.1 Street Consensus: “Moderate Buy” with Targets Below the Current Price
Despite the big rally, Wall Street remains broadly positive on AMAT:
- MarketBeat reports that 34 analysts cover the stock, with an average recommendation of “Moderate Buy”:
- 20 Buy ratings,
- 14 Hold ratings,
- 0 Sell ratings. [20]
- The average 12‑month price target on MarketBeat sits around $234–$235, implying low‑to‑mid teens downside from the current ~$273 share price. [21]
- StockAnalysis, which aggregates 27 analysts, shows a “Buy” consensus with an average target of $226.67, also suggesting ~15–17% downside from current levels. [22]
In other words, most Street models have not yet caught up with the latest price action, and average targets still lag the stock’s new highs.
4.2 Recent Upgrades and High-Profile Targets
More recent notes tell a more bullish micro‑story:
- TD Cowen recently raised its price target from $260 to $315 and named Applied Materials its “Top 2026 Idea.” [23]
- Their thesis: AMAT is structurally leveraged to DRAM and leading‑edge foundry, which they expect to see high‑teens WFE growth in 2026, driven by AI server and HBM demand. TechStock²
- A series of early‑December calls from major banks, summarized by TechStock² (TS2), highlight: TechStock²
- UBS upgrading AMAT from Neutral to Buy, lifting its target from $250 to $285, calling it a key winner of a DRAM “super‑cycle.”
- KeyBanc maintaining Overweight and raising its target from $240 to $285, citing attractive valuation versus peers and broad exposure to AI‑aligned nodes.
- Morgan Stanley nudging its target from $252 to $273, also with an Overweight rating.
- Several other firms (JPMorgan, Bank of America, B. Riley, among others) moving their targets into the $250–270+ zone over recent weeks.
Put together, these moves show a clear upward drift in fresh price targets toward the high‑200s and low‑300s, even though the simple average of all targets still sits well below the current price due to older, lower estimates.
5. Institutional Ownership, Flows and Sentiment
Institutional positioning around AMAT is unusually heavy:
- TechStock², summarizing MarketBeat data, notes that about 80.5% of shares are held by institutional investors, with major asset managers like Vanguard and State Street among the top holders. Short interest is modest at around 1.9% of float, and trending lower. TechStock²
- Recent 13F‑related headlines show some large firms increasing their stakes (e.g., Cerity Partners, Ossiam) while others trim around the edges, but net institutional demand remains positive. TechStock²
- FXEmpire’s MoneyFlows analysis highlights ongoing “outlier inflows” and frames AMAT as a long‑standing favorite in their institutional‑buying model, with a multi‑decade record of strong performance following such signals. [24]
Parameter.io’s note reinforces this picture: the latest pullback is viewed as consolidation within a strongly accumulated, institutionally crowded name, not a broad reversal in sentiment. [25]
6. Key Growth Drivers Into 2026: Why Bulls Still Like AMAT
Across earnings calls, sell‑side research and independent analysis, several recurring themes underpin the bullish narrative.
6.1 AI Infrastructure, DRAM and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM)
- Applied Materials provides core tools for deposition, etch, metrology and advanced packaging — all essential for manufacturing the advanced logic and HBM chips that power AI accelerators and high‑performance data centers. [26]
- Futurum Research and multiple brokerage notes expect leading‑edge foundry/logic, DRAM and HBM to be the fastest-growing WFE segments in 2026, with AMAT holding strong process-of-record positions in many of the critical steps. [27]
- TD Cowen, UBS and others see mid‑teens to 20%+ WFE growth in 2026 tied to AI server demand and memory upgrades, with AMAT one of the key “picks and shovels” players in that build‑out. TechStock²+1
6.2 Multi-Year Visibility and Product Roadmap
- Management now has more than one year — in some cases two years — of customer visibility into advanced fab ramps, according to Futurum’s analysis of the Q4 call. [28]
- New tools in epitaxy, hybrid bonding, and e‑beam metrology are closely aligned with upcoming transistor and packaging transitions, supporting both share gains and margin resilience. [29]
- The company’s updated operating model makes AGS a more clearly recurring revenue stream and clarifies segment accountability, which analysts see as a positive for transparency and valuation. [30]
6.3 Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Returns
- With strong free cash flow and a high GF Score, AMAT continues to return capital through dividends and buybacks:
- A quarterly dividend of about $0.46 per share, with at least eight consecutive years of dividend growth.
- A $10 billion share repurchase authorization announced in 2025, representing roughly ~8% of shares outstanding at announcement. TechStock²+2GlobeNewswire+2
These factors combine to make the bull case: a high‑quality, cash‑generative leader at the center of a multi‑year AI infrastructure cycle.
7. Risks and Bear Arguments: What Could Go Wrong?
Despite the optimism, today’s commentaries also stress material risks.
7.1 Valuation Stretch and “Priced for Perfection” Concerns
- AMAT’s current P/E near 31x is well above its historical average and significantly above its 12‑month average multiple, even if it’s still below some AI‑heavy peers. [31]
- Simply Wall St’s DCF model implies the stock trades roughly 70% above its estimated intrinsic value, suggesting limited margin for error if growth slows. [32]
- Several aggregated target-price datasets (MarketBeat, StockAnalysis) still show average 12‑month targets below the current share price, indicating that valuation has outrun many existing models. [33]
Put bluntly: AMAT is no longer a bargain; it’s a quality name priced for strong execution.
7.2 Cyclicality and AI Spending Risk
- While AI infrastructure is the key growth driver, semiconductor and memory spending remain cyclical. A slowdown in AI server orders, delays in fab build‑outs, or a broader macro slowdown could easily compress WFE spending — and with it, AMAT’s earnings and multiple. [34]
- Several analyses — including TS2’s December 3 rundown — note that revenue growth is currently in the low single digits and EPS in the high single digits, while the share price has surged over 60% this year. TechStock²+1
7.3 Export Controls and China Exposure
- U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductor tools to China remain an ongoing policy risk, with rules evolving as governments try to balance national security concerns and global supply chains. [35]
- While AMAT has diversified and reduced its restricted China revenue exposure to roughly a quarter of sales, further tightening of rules or delays in license approvals could still impact growth and investor sentiment. [36]
7.4 Crowded Institutional Ownership
- With around 80% of shares held by institutions, positioning is already very crowded. If sentiment turns — whether due to macro factors, policy changes or an AI spending pause — institutional de‑risking could amplify volatility to the downside. TechStock²+1
8. What Does All of This Mean for Investors as of December 10, 2025?
Putting the latest data together:
- The bull case rests on:
- AMAT’s dominant position in AI‑focused wafer‑fab equipment,
- strong, recurring services revenue,
- a clean balance sheet and high profitability, and
- multi‑year visibility into advanced fab ramps and DRAM/HBM up‑cycles. [37]
- The bear (or cautious) case emphasizes:
- Rich valuation metrics versus history,
- DCF models showing potential overvaluation,
- policy and cyclicality risks around China and memory spending, and
- the fact that average analyst targets still sit below the current price even after recent upgrades. [38]
For short‑term traders, AMAT today looks like a high‑momentum, institutionally crowded stock hovering near all‑time highs, where surprises — positive or negative — around AI capex, export rules or Fed policy could trigger violent moves in either direction.
For longer‑term investors, the picture is of a best‑in‑class semiconductor equipment leader priced for a strong AI‑driven upcycle, not for a deep cyclical downturn. Whether that setup is attractive depends heavily on your risk tolerance, time horizon and confidence in the durability of the AI infrastructure boom.
Nothing in this article is personalized investment advice, but as of December 10, 2025, the consensus message from the latest news and analysis is clear:
Applied Materials remains a high‑quality AI infrastructure play — just no longer a cheap one.
Quick FAQs (SEO Friendly)
Is Applied Materials (AMAT) stock a buy right now?
Analysts as a group rate AMAT a “Moderate Buy” or “Buy”, with the majority of firms positive on its AI‑driven growth prospects. However, average price targets still sit below the current share price, and several valuation models suggest the stock is priced for high expectations. [39]
What is the latest price target for AMAT?
Recent high‑profile calls have lifted individual targets into the $285–$315 range (UBS, KeyBanc, TD Cowen), but the average Street target still clusters in the low‑to‑mid $230s. [40]
How dependent is AMAT on AI?
Q4 and FY 2025 results, along with independent analysis, show a growing mix of revenue from leading‑edge foundry/logic, DRAM and high‑bandwidth memory, all of which are key to AI servers and accelerators. Management and analysts expect these AI‑linked areas to be the fastest-growing parts of AMAT’s business through 2026. [41]
References
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