AppLovin (APP) Stock After Hours on December 8, 2025 – What to Know Before the December 9 Market Open

AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) heads into Tuesday’s session near record territory after a modest pullback and a flurry of fresh analyst, technical and valuation headlines on Monday, December 8, 2025. Here’s a deep dive into how APP traded after the bell and what investors should watch before the U.S. stock market opens on December 9.

Note: All figures are as of the close and extended session on Monday, December 8, 2025, unless otherwise stated. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.

1. How AppLovin Stock Traded on December 8, 2025

A small dip after a huge run

On Monday, AppLovin shares eased slightly, giving back a sliver of their recent explosive gains:

• Regular session close:$689.76, down about 0.3% on the day. ^[1]
• Intraday range: Opened near $697.68, traded as high as $706.69 and as low as $683.53. ^[2]
• Volume: Around 3.0 million shares, a bit lighter than the previous sessions, even as price dipped – often seen as a constructive sign after a strong run. ^[3]

Despite Monday’s mild pullback, the context matters:

• The stock has risen in 8 of the last 10 sessions and is up about 32.6% over the past two weeks, according to short‑term technical analysis. ^[4]
• Over the past month, APP is up about 11%, and roughly 72% over the last 12 months, with a YTD return around 113%. ^[5]
• APP now trades well above its 52‑week low of $200.50, but still a bit below its recent 52‑week high near $745.61. ^[6]

In other words, Monday looked more like a breather than a breakdown.

After-hours action: Flat to slightly positive

After the closing bell, APP traded essentially sideways:

• StockAnalysis.com showed AppLovin at about $690.94 in after‑hours trading as of 6:58 p.m. ET, up roughly 0.2% from the regular close. ^[7]
• MarketBeat similarly listed an extended-hours quote near $690.00 as of 7:08 p.m. ET. ^[8]

The takeaway: no major after‑hours shock. The stock went into the overnight session roughly flat, suggesting that Monday’s news and flows were digested without dramatic repricing.

2. The Fundamental Backdrop: Q3 2025 Was Huge

A big reason APP has been one of 2025’s standout AI and ad‑tech winners is the company’s blistering fundamental performance.

From AppLovin’s Q3 2025 earnings release published on November 5: ^[9]

• Q3 revenue:$1.405 billion, up 68% year over year.
• Nine‑month 2025 revenue:$3.823 billion, up 72% vs. the same period in 2024.
• Q3 net income:$836 million, up 92% YoY.
• Q3 Adjusted EBITDA:$1.158 billion, up 79% YoY, with a record 82% Adjusted EBITDA margin.
• Free cash flow (Q3): about $1.05 billion.
• The board boosted share‑repurchase authorization by an additional $3.2 billion, taking remaining authorization to about $3.3 billion as of the end of October.

For Q4 2025, management guided for: ^[10]

• Revenue:$1.57–$1.60 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA:$1.29–$1.32 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA margin:82–83%

That level of growth and profitability is the engine behind the stock’s enormous rally — but it also feeds a lively debate about valuation and sustainability (more on that below).

3. Fresh News from December 8: Analyst Calls, Technical “Buy Zone” & Big Money Flows

Monday brought a batch of new commentary and data points that help explain how the market is viewing APP heading into Tuesday’s open.

3.1 Piper Sandler reaffirms Overweight, $800 price target

Before the open on December 8, Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $800 price target on AppLovin following an investor meeting with CEO Adam Foroughi, CFO Matt Stumpf and IR head David Hsiao. ^[11]

Key points from that note:

• The $800 target implies roughly 15–16% upside from the recent price near $692 at the time of the report. ^[12]
• Piper highlighted AppLovin’s “remarkable business momentum”, noting ~98.5% revenue growth over the last 12 months and gross margins near 80%. ^[13]
• Management emphasized momentum in self‑serve ad tools and e‑commerce initiatives, which aim to extend AppLovin’s AI‑driven Axon platform beyond gaming into categories like retail, fintech and automotive. ^[14]
• The note also referenced a Fitch Ratings upgrade of AppLovin’s long‑term issuer rating to BBB (from BBB‑), reflecting stronger balance‑sheet quality and business performance. ^[15]

Piper did flag valuation: APP trades on a lofty P/E around the mid‑80s, but a PEG ratio under 1 (around 0.56 in their analysis) suggests the multiple could still be justified relative to growth. ^[16]

3.2 Investor’s Business Daily: APP in a technical “buy zone”

Later in the day, Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) published a detailed technical piece titled “AppLovin Stock In A Buy Zone With Profit Set To Rise.” ^[17]

Highlights from IBD’s coverage:

• APP broke out of a double‑bottom base last week and is trading in a buy zone, with Monday marking its eighth straight day of gains before the small pullback. ^[18]
• The stock has more than doubled in 2025 and now outperforms about 95% of all stocks tracked by IBD. It’s featured on the IBD 50, IBD MarketSurge Growth 250 and IBD Tech Leaders lists. ^[19]
• IBD notes that Q3 earnings jumped 98% to $2.45 per share on 68% revenue growth, and highlights the $571 million of stock repurchases in Q3. ^[20]
• Wall Street forecasts full‑year 2025 earnings to rise about 108% to $9.41 per share, with Q4 revenue expected to reach the upper end of management’s $1.57–$1.60 billion range. ^[21]

In separate recent coverage, IBD also pointed out that:

• Top mutual funds have poured roughly $20+ billion into APP,
• Fund ownership has increased for eight consecutive quarters, and
• The stock sports a Composite Rating of 98 and Accumulation/Distribution Rating of A‑, reflecting strong institutional demand. ^[22]

The net message from IBD: APP remains technically actionable, but it’s also extended and increasingly dependent on continued execution.

3.3 Options market: Whales active, sentiment mixed

Around midday Monday, Benzinga published an options‑flow piece, “AppLovin’s Options: A Look at What the Big Money is Thinking.” ^[23]

Key takeaways:

• Over the last month, analysts detected 86 large options trades in APP.
• Roughly 39% of those trades were bullish, 40% bearish, with the rest neutral — suggesting balanced but active speculation around the name. ^[24]
• Big players spent about $5.24 million on calls vs. $1.29 million on puts, focused mostly on strikes between $300 and $850. ^[25]
• Notable trades included a bullish July 2026 $620 call sweep worth about $658,000, alongside sizeable bearish call and neutral put sweeps at higher strikes. ^[26]
• At the time, APP was trading near $697 with an RSI “approaching overbought,” and Benzinga notes that one recent analyst rating (from Citi) pegs a target around $820. ^[27]

On top of that, Fintel data shows an open‑interest put/call ratio of about 0.81, meaning there are more calls than puts outstanding — generally a moderately bullish options positioning backdrop. ^[28]

3.4 Institutional trimming & insider selling

Two MarketBeat pieces released on December 8 focused on prior‑quarter institutional moves: ^[29]

• L2 Asset Management LLC cut its APP position by 52.2% in Q2, selling 11,102 shares and leaving 10,178 shares worth about $3.56 million.
• Natixis reduced its stake by 60.8%, selling 290,651 shares and ending the quarter with 187,445 shares worth about $65.6 million (around 0.06% of the company).

MarketBeat also highlighted insider activity:

• Management and insiders have sold roughly 332,577 shares over the last quarter, worth about $195 million, including transactions by the CTO, CFO and CEO. ^[30]
• Even so, insiders still control about 13.7% of shares, and institutional investors about 42%. ^[31]

From a metrics standpoint, MarketBeat and other data providers now show: ^[32]

• Market cap: ~$230–235 billion
• P/E ratio: about 84x
• PEG ratio: around 3.7 on some long‑term growth estimates
• Debt-to-equity: around 2.4, with strong liquidity (current and quick ratios above 3)

These figures underscore that APP is no longer a “cheap” AI play – it’s a high‑multiple, high‑growth leader that institutions have already discovered.

3.5 Valuation tug-of-war: Overvalued or still cheap to growth?

Monday also saw valuation‑focused research get more attention:

• Morningstar listed AppLovin among “newly overvalued stocks”, saying shares trade about 38% above its $500 fair value estimate, with a “Very High” uncertainty rating, even after raising its intrinsic value estimate on the back of strong AI‑driven growth. ^[33]
• A recent Simply Wall St valuation check put the consensus analyst price target near $499, with a wide range from $250 to $650, and cautioned that the stock looks expensive relative to those long‑term assumptions. ^[34]
• In contrast, 24/7 Wall St’s December 5 deep‑dive on APP noted that Wall Street’s one‑year consensus target has climbed to about $728.25, with most of the 27 covering analysts rating the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. Their own base‑case forecast pegs year‑end 2025 at around $680 (basically flat from current levels) but projects $910.70 by 2030, implying ~33% upside over the rest of the decade. ^[35]

Aggregators like StockAnalysis.com currently classify APP as a “Strong Buy”, with 19 analysts in December split roughly as: 8 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. ^[36]

Put simply, AppLovin is a battleground on valuation, not on business quality:

• Bulls point to massive growth, dominant margins, AI leadership and index inclusion (APP joined the S&P 500 this year). ^[37]
• Bears worry that any slowdown from these extraordinary numbers could compress the multiple sharply, especially with high leverage and a beta above 2.5. ^[38]

4. Short-Term Technical & Risk Picture Before the December 9 Open

Overbought but still in an uptrend

Short‑term technical research from StockInvest.us paints APP as both high‑risk and technically strong: ^[39]

• The stock fell 0.32% on Monday (from $691.94 to $689.76) but has risen in 8 of the last 10 days, up 32.6% in two weeks.
• Daily volatility has been steep, with an average 4.46% intraday move over the past week.
• Both short‑ and long‑term moving averages are rising and aligned bullishly, and the 3‑month MACD remains on a buy signal.
• However, the RSI(14) is in overbought territory, and the stock is in the upper part of its trend channel, increasing the risk of a near‑term shakeout.

For Tuesday, December 9, StockInvest’s model projects: ^[40]

• A theoretical open around $693.33,
• An expected trading interval between roughly $672.89 and $706.63, implying potential moves of ±5% intraday,
• Key support from accumulated volume around $649.59 and then $631.85 – levels where a break could trigger stronger selling pressure.

Given the high beta, recent run‑up and elevated RSI, traders should be prepared for large swings in either direction if sentiment or macro conditions shift.

5. Key Catalysts to Watch on December 9, 2025

5.1 Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference fireside chat

AppLovin will participate in a fireside chat at the Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference (with Morgan Stanley) in London on Tuesday, December 9, at 10:35 a.m. GMT (mid‑morning U.S. pre‑market/early session overlap for some investors). ^[41]

The event will be webcast on the company’s IR site and may provide incremental color on:

• Progress of Axon AI and self‑serve advertising tools,
• Traction in e‑commerce and non‑gaming verticals,
• Any hints about Q4 performance relative to guidance or updated capital‑return plans. ^[42]

While this is not an earnings event, conference remarks sometimes spark volatility if management’s tone or comments differ from market expectations.

5.2 Macro & sector backdrop

At the company level:

• APP’s next earnings report is still weeks out (Benzinga estimates about 65 days until the next release). ^[43]
• There are no new company‑specific financial releases scheduled for December 9 beyond the conference appearance. ^[44]

That means overall market sentiment — especially toward high‑multiple AI, software, ad‑tech and S&P 500 growth names — can have an outsized impact on APP’s trading on any given day.

Investors should keep an eye on:

• Broader Nasdaq and AI‑stock moves,
• Any macro data releases affecting growth, rates or risk appetite,
• Headlines around digital advertising spend or AI regulation that could influence the group.

6. APP Stock Forecast: Short-Term vs Long-Term Views

Putting everything together, here’s how different time horizons roughly stack up heading into the December 9 open.

Short term (days to weeks)

Bullish forces:

• Strong price and volume trend, recent technical breakout and “buy zone” labels from IBD. ^[45]
• Continued analyst support, including Piper Sandler’s Overweight/$800 target and Citi’s Buy/$820. ^[46]
• Options activity and an OI put/call ratio below 1.0 suggest active and slightly call‑skewed positioning. ^[47]

Risks:

• Overbought RSI and very steep recent gains, leaving the stock vulnerable to profit‑taking or sharp shakeouts. ^[48]
• Elevated volatility (5% daily trading bands) and high beta. ^[49]
• Valuation concerns raised by Morningstar and Simply Wall St could limit upside if momentum cools. ^[50]

Medium term (months)

• Consensus Wall Street one‑year price targets cluster between roughly $500 and $800, with a “Strong Buy” average rating. ^[51]
• Q4 guidance implies continued revenue and EBITDA growth at very high margins, and Street estimates call for triple‑digit EPS growth in 2025. ^[52]
• The planned divestiture of its mobile gaming unit, turning APP into a pure ad‑tech platform, could simplify the story and potentially justify premium multiples — if executed smoothly. ^[53]

Here, expectations are already high. The stock likely needs ongoing beats, raised guidance, or major new growth milestones (e.g., self‑serve at scale, e‑commerce ramp) to re‑rate meaningfully higher from today’s rich levels.

Long term (to 2030)

• 24/7 Wall St’s base‑case sees APP at about $910.70 by 2030, roughly 33% above today’s price, assuming slower (sub‑10%) revenue growth later in the decade but sustained high margins and capital returns. ^[54]
• The AI‑powered performance advertising niche remains in high secular growth mode; AppLovin’s Axon engine and data advantage could keep it a key competitor to giants like Google and Meta in certain performance‑ad segments. ^[55]

That said, long‑term forecasts are inherently uncertain, and the stock’s current valuation already bakes in a large portion of the optimistic scenario.

7. What Investors Should Know Before the December 9, 2025 Open

Heading into Tuesday’s session, here are the practical takeaways:

1. Price action is strong but stretched.
   APP is just off recent highs after a massive two‑week run, with Monday’s modest decline and flat after‑hours trading suggesting consolidation rather than capitulation. ^[56]
2. Fundamentals are exceptional.
   Q3 showed 68% revenue growth, 92% net‑income growth and 82% EBITDA margins, with Q4 guidance pointing to more of the same and billions in authorization for buybacks. ^[57]
3. Wall Street remains broadly bullish.
   APP enjoys Overweight/Buy ratings from multiple firms (Piper Sandler, Citi and others), a “Strong Buy” consensus, and high‑profile technical endorsements from IBD. ^[58]
4. Valuation is hotly debated.
   Morningstar and Simply Wall St argue APP is significantly overvalued relative to their fair‑value models, while 24/7 Wall St and many Street analysts still see mid‑ to long‑term upside. ^[59]
5. Risk is elevated.
   Overbought technicals, heavy recent gains, high P/E and significant insider/institutional selling all suggest short‑term downside risk if sentiment turns — especially around key support levels near $650. ^[60]
6. Today’s conference appearance is a key soft catalyst.
   Any new commentary from management at the Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference could influence the stock’s path during and after Tuesday’s session, particularly around Axon AI, non‑gaming growth and capital allocation. ^[61]

Final word

For traders and investors looking at AppLovin before the December 9, 2025 open, the picture is clear but nuanced:

• Business momentum and AI‑driven growth are firing on all cylinders.
• The stock is priced for excellence, not mediocrity.
• Short‑term swings could be violent, in either direction, as the market digests rich valuations and rapid gains.

If you’re following APP, today’s game plan likely includes:

• Watching pre‑market and early‑session price action around Monday’s close,
• Listening for any surprises from the London fireside chat, and
• Keeping a close eye on those technical support levels and the broader risk‑on/risk‑off tone in AI and software names.

Again, none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell AppLovin stock — but it should give you a well‑rounded view of where APP stands after Monday’s close and what might move it next.

References

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