AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) is trading lower after the closing bell on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, extending a down day for many growth and “AI-adjacent” names. As of 4:45 p.m. ET (after-hours), APP shares are around $657.13, down $19.81 (-2.93%) versus the prior close, after swinging between roughly $657.11 and $688.98 during the session.
That pullback comes on a day when U.S. equities broadly weakened—especially in tech and AI-linked stocks—setting up a potentially volatile Thursday as markets brace for a packed slate of inflation and macro data scheduled for release before the opening bell. [1]
Below is what matters tonight for APP investors—today’s fresh analyst actions and commentary, what the latest coverage suggests about AppLovin’s near-term setup, and the key “before-the-open” catalysts that could drive the next move on Thursday, December 18.
Where AppLovin stock stands after the bell
After-hours snapshot (as of 4:45 p.m. ET):
- Price: ~$657.13
- After-hours move vs. prior close: -$19.81 (-2.93%)
- Day range: ~$657.11 to ~$688.98
- Open: ~$684.79
- Volume: ~3.0M shares
Two immediate takeaways from this tape:
- Today’s weakness wasn’t driven by a new company press release. Instead, APP traded like a high-beta growth name in a risk-off session—meaning broader index direction and rate expectations likely mattered as much as any company-specific headlines.
- After-hours prices can change quickly. The after-hours session typically has thinner liquidity than the regular session, so swings can look bigger than they would intraday.
The biggest APP news from today: two bullish reads from Wall Street
Even with shares down after the bell, the tone of the most widely circulated research commentary today (Dec. 17) leaned constructive.
BTIG raises APP price target to $771, keeps Buy
In an analyst note reported today, BTIG lifted its price target on AppLovin to $771 from $705 and maintained a Buy rating. The firm framed the move around a more constructive setup heading into 2026 for the gaming and gambling end markets it covers, with the higher target reflecting expectations for healthier gaming user acquisition trends in Q4 and beyond. [2]
Why that matters:
- AppLovin’s near-term revenue/EBITDA narrative has been tightly tied to advertising efficiency and monetization trends in gaming.
- Any sign that UA (user acquisition) demand is stabilizing or improving tends to support the bull case that AppLovin’s platform is capturing an outsized share of performance ad budgets.
Wedbush reiterates Outperform and $800 target after an advisor call
Benzinga reported today that Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating with an $800 price target, highlighting takeaways from an advisor call focused on AppLovin. Key points cited included:
- “Strong acceleration” in mobile gaming eCPMs into the holiday period, attributed to AppLovin’s e-commerce initiative and increased game volume
- A “significant data moat” connected to the MAX product and the AXON algorithm, reinforcing a feedback loop of model improvement
- Optimism tied to an upcoming public rollout of Axon Ads, described as being supported by AI agents and generative AI for creatives
- A long-term growth view driven by advertiser density, international localization, and expansion into open web inventory [3]
Wedbush also referenced AppLovin’s most recent quarterly performance, noting the company posted $1.405B in revenue (above both Wedbush’s estimate and broader consensus cited in the coverage) and EPS of $2.45 vs. $2.41 consensus in that quarter. [4]
If the news was bullish, why did APP fall today?
A down day alongside positive analyst commentary often signals the market is discounting something bigger than a single research note. Today’s backdrop provided a few plausible pressures:
1) Growth stocks softened as the broader market fell—especially “AI trades”
Investors.com’s market coverage described a notable sell-off in AI-linked shares that helped pull the Nasdaq and S&P 500 below key technical levels during Wednesday’s session. [5]
In that kind of tape, even stocks with upbeat analyst coverage can trade down as:
- managers reduce exposure into macro risk,
- investors lock in gains after strong runs,
- and high-multiple names see valuation sensitivity increase.
2) Markets are bracing for Thursday’s inflation and macro prints
Thursday morning brings a cluster of market-moving releases at 8:30 a.m. ET, including CPI and Core CPI, plus jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data, according to an Investing.com roundup published today. [6]
That timing matters for APP because:
- Higher-than-expected inflation can push bond yields up, and higher yields tend to compress valuation multiples for high-growth stocks.
- Lower inflation can ease rate pressure and often supports “long-duration” equities—names where more of the value is tied to expected future growth.
3) High expectations are already in the price
AppLovin has been one of the market’s standout momentum stories in 2025, and recent coverage has emphasized both its strong performance and the intensity of investor attention. For example, Investopedia recently highlighted Jefferies’ bullish stance and the idea that APP’s strong rise has come despite controversy earlier in the year. [7]
When expectations are elevated, it doesn’t take much (a weak tape, a macro risk event, or simple profit-taking) to spark a pullback.
Forecasts and targets: what today’s coverage implies for APP’s “base case” into 2026
Today’s new price target change (BTIG to $771) and Wedbush’s reiterated $800 target sit in a broader context: multiple research updates have been clustering in the mid-to-high $700s and above during December.
TheFly’s APP headline feed shows:
- BTIG target hike today (12/17)
- Jefferies and Benchmark target hikes earlier this month (12/11) [8]
And broader media coverage this week has referenced Jefferies’ $860 target and a thesis that APP could expand its platform access further in the first half of 2026. [9]
A few things to keep in mind when reading these targets:
- Price targets are not short-term forecasts; they often reflect 12-month views and can change rapidly with macro conditions.
- Analyst models can diverge depending on how they treat gaming cycles, e-commerce ramp timelines, and incremental margins.
- The spread in targets and forecasts across data vendors can be wide, reflecting differences in included analysts and refresh cadence. [10]
Key risks investors still watch closely with AppLovin
Even bulls acknowledge that APP tends to trade with a higher “headline sensitivity” than many software peers. Here are the main overhangs that still matter to sentiment:
Regulatory and data-practices scrutiny
Reuters previously reported that the U.S. SEC has been probing AppLovin’s data-collection practices, including allegations related to partner service agreements. While that report dates back to October, it remains a factor investors routinely cite when explaining volatility in the name. [11]
Ongoing volatility around insider and institutional selling headlines
While not necessarily market-moving by itself, investors also monitor periodic filings and alerts about share sales. For example, MarketBeat posted an item today tied to selling activity it attributes to filings and related disclosures. [12]
Concentration and cyclicality in performance advertising
Even with the e-commerce narrative gaining traction, AppLovin’s near-term results can still be highly sensitive to:
- mobile gaming budget cycles,
- user acquisition economics,
- and holiday-period ad pricing dynamics—especially if macro data shifts advertiser confidence.
What to watch before the market opens tomorrow (Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025)
Here are the highest-impact items that could move APP—directly or indirectly—before and right after the open.
1) CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET (and why this one may be “noisier” than usual)
BLS has confirmed that it will publish the November 2025 CPI news release on December 18, 2025, and noted that the release and database update will not include some 1-month percent changes because October CPI survey data could not be collected during the 2025 lapse in appropriations. [13]
Translation for traders:
- Markets may react strongly, but the interpretation could be trickier than a typical CPI print.
- Expect fast repricing in yields and “rate-sensitive” growth stocks if the number surprises.
2) Jobless claims and Philly Fed—also at 8:30 a.m. ET
Investing.com’s calendar roundup lists initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index alongside CPI at the same time, creating a “stacked” data moment that can amplify pre-market volatility. [14]
3) Watch for follow-on analyst notes and fast-moving headlines
Because APP is actively covered and frequently discussed in “street research” feeds, a second upgrade/downgrade or a new channel-check note can have an outsized effect—especially on a macro-heavy morning.
4) Pre-market positioning in high-beta tech
If futures move sharply after CPI, APP could gap simply because:
- systematic strategies rebalance,
- hedge funds adjust gross exposure,
- or momentum baskets rotate.
On days like that, the first 30–60 minutes after the open can matter more than the after-hours tape.
The setup going into Thursday: a practical read
Going into Thursday, APP is effectively caught between two forces:
- Supportive company narrative (today’s notes): BTIG raising to $771 and Wedbush reiterating $800 underscores that some analysts still see a strong setup tied to mobile gaming trends, e-commerce expansion, and AXON platform momentum. [15]
- Macro-driven valuation risk (tomorrow morning): CPI and related releases will likely dictate the direction of yields—and for a stock like APP, that can quickly become the dominant driver regardless of company execution in the near term. [16]
In plain terms: Thursday may trade more like a “macro day” than an “APP day.” But if CPI volatility is extreme, APP could be among the names that react more sharply than the market due to its beta and recent run.
Bottom line for APP stock tonight
AppLovin stock is down after hours on December 17, even as fresh coverage today highlighted bullish analyst actions—notably BTIG’s target hike to $771 and Wedbush’s reiterated $800 view tied to eCPM strength, data advantages, and Axon Ads platform momentum. [17]
For the next session, however, the most important near-term variable may be tomorrow’s 8:30 a.m. ET inflation and macro data bundle, including a CPI release that the BLS has flagged as unusual due to missing October observations after the 2025 lapse in appropriations. [18]
References
1. www.investors.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.benzinga.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. apim.thefly.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.bls.gov, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.bls.gov
