December 24, 2025 — AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) is trading through a shortened Christmas Eve session, with U.S. equities scheduled to close early at 1:00 p.m. ET—a setup that can amplify intraday swings as liquidity thins. [1]
As of late morning trading, AppLovin shares are around $727, hovering inside a tight range after a volatile stretch that included multiple Wall Street price-target increases in mid-December. [2]
Meanwhile, the broader market tone is supportive for growth and AI-linked names: the S&P 500 touched a new intraday record high on Dec. 24, helped by renewed appetite for technology and expectations that interest-rate cuts could resume in 2026. [3]
Below is a full, publication-ready roundup of the latest APP stock news, forecasts, and analysis as of 24.12.2025, plus the key catalysts (and risks) heading into early 2026.
AppLovin stock price today: Christmas Eve session snapshot
AppLovin is trading near $727 per share on Wednesday, Dec. 24, with the session’s intraday high near $733.75 and low near $722.12 at the time of the latest update.
Two factors are shaping how investors interpret today’s tape:
- Holiday market structure: Christmas Eve is an early close, and these shortened sessions often produce lower volume and more “gappy” price action. [4]
- APP’s recent volatility: Over the last several trading days, APP has seen sharp moves around analyst notes and technical levels—typical behavior for high-momentum, high-expectation stocks.
For investors tracking APP into year-end, today is less about “one candle” and more about whether the stock can hold recent breakout levels into the first catalyst window of 2026 (earnings season).
Why AppLovin remains one of 2025’s most-watched “AI advertising” stocks
AppLovin’s core bull narrative hasn’t changed: the company has been positioning itself as an AI-driven performance advertising platform, increasingly discussed in the context of commerce-focused ad spend and self-serve onboarding.
The stock’s 2025 run also has a structural tailwind: AppLovin was added to the S&P 500, effective prior to the open on September 22, 2025, which typically increases passive ownership through index-tracking funds. [5]
From an SEO and investor-intent standpoint, the terms most associated with AppLovin stock right now are:
- “Axon” / AI optimization engine
- “self-serve ads” rollout
- “e-commerce / non-gaming ads” expansion
- “exceptional margins” in adtech
- “regulatory risk / data collection probe”
Those themes are central to both today’s price action and the market’s forward forecasts.
Latest earnings: Q3 2025 results showed explosive growth and profitability
The most recent official financial milestone still shaping forecasts is AppLovin’s third-quarter 2025 report (released Nov. 5, 2025).
Highlights from the company’s Q3 release include:
- Revenue:$1.405 billion (up 68% year over year)
- Net income:$836 million (up 92% year over year)
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.158 billion (up 79% year over year)
- Free cash flow:$1.05 billion for the quarter
- Share repurchases/withholding:1.3 million shares for $571 million in Q3 [6]
In a market where many “AI” beneficiaries are still proving their margins, AppLovin’s profitability profile is a major reason analysts keep revisiting their targets—especially as the company attempts to scale beyond its historical gaming roots.
Q4 2025 guidance: the company pointed to continued rapid growth and 80%+ margins
In its earnings materials, AppLovin also provided a Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Guidance Summary, calling for:
- Revenue:$1.57 billion to $1.60 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.29 billion to $1.32 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin:82% to 83% [7]
AppLovin also disclosed an aggressive capital-return stance. Its board increased share repurchase authorization by $3.2 billion, taking remaining authorization to $3.3 billion as of the end of October. [8]
Why this matters for APP stock forecasts:
When a company is simultaneously projecting high growth, maintaining unusually high operating profitability, and expanding buyback capacity, analysts often model a “dual engine” of EPS growth: fundamentals + fewer shares outstanding.
Analyst forecasts: price targets moved again in December 2025
Fresh price-target hikes (mid-December)
Several widely-circulated analyst updates have pushed the “APP stock forecast” conversation higher again heading into year-end:
- Benchmark reportedly raised its APP price target to $775 from $700 (Dec. 11, 2025), while reiterating a positive stance. [9]
- Jefferies reportedly raised its APP price target to $860 from $800 (Dec. 11, 2025). [10]
- BTIGlifted its price target to $771 from $705 (Dec. 17, 2025). [11]
These updates matter not just because of the targets—but because they arrived after a year in which AppLovin moved from a “trader’s momentum stock” to a widely-owned large-cap name, including via index inclusion.
Consensus targets: still positive, but not uniform
Consensus numbers vary by aggregator and methodology, but the current “street view” broadly clusters in the mid-$700s, with meaningful dispersion:
- StockAnalysis lists an average price target of ~$761.94 with a “Strong Buy” consensus (as compiled on its platform). [12]
- MarketBeat lists an average price target of ~$695.90, with targets ranging widely (including a high of $860). [13]
How to interpret the gap:
Different platforms may pull from different subsets of analysts, update at different intervals, or weight targets differently. For investors, the bigger takeaway is that APP has become a stock where small changes in growth assumptions can create large changes in valuation math—and therefore larger target spreads than you’d see in slower-growing software.
Technical analysis and options activity: breakout levels are in focus
Some market commentary today is centered on chart structure and derivatives positioning.
Breakout level being watched
Investor-focused technical coverage notes AppLovin has recently broken out of a double-bottom pattern and highlighted a buy point around $726.83. [14]
Regardless of whether you follow that specific methodology, it’s notable because the stock is currently trading right around that zone—a psychological area where short-term supply/demand can shift quickly.
Options traders are positioning for support
Options commentary published today described a bull put spread structure premised on APP holding above a specified support area into January expiration, reflecting that some traders are expressing bullish views with defined risk rather than outright share purchases. [15]
This does not guarantee direction, but it supports the broader point: APP is actively traded, and its near-term price can be influenced by options hedging flows, especially around major technical levels in lower-liquidity holiday sessions.
The biggest risk factor still hanging over APP: regulatory scrutiny
No “AppLovin stock analysis” in late 2025 is complete without addressing the regulatory headline risk.
Reuters reported in October that the U.S. SEC is investigating AppLovin over data-collection practices, citing a Bloomberg News report. Reuters said the probe stems from a whistleblower complaint and short-seller allegations, and that the investigation is being handled by the SEC’s cyber and emerging technologies enforcement team (per the report). [16]
AppLovin has stated (as quoted in coverage at the time) that it regularly engages with regulators and would disclose material developments through appropriate channels. [17]
Why this remains material on Dec. 24, 2025:
Even if quarterly results stay strong, uncertainty around regulatory outcomes can pressure valuation multiples, slow partner adoption, and create headline-driven volatility—especially for a stock that has already priced in substantial growth.
What investors are watching next: 5 catalysts for AppLovin stock in early 2026
Here are the most “tradable” and forecast-relevant catalysts as APP heads into the new year:
1) Q4 2025 earnings (timing still estimated)
Several earnings calendars currently estimate AppLovin’s next report around February 11, 2026 (the company may confirm a date later). [18]
2) Proof points on self-serve scaling
Guidance and management commentary have highlighted the self-serve rollout as a key growth vector; markets will be looking for concrete indicators that onboarding and spend expansion are scaling without sacrificing performance.
3) Follow-through on buybacks
With remaining authorization cited at $3.3 billion as of end of October, capital return will remain a high-visibility lever—particularly if management continues deploying free cash flow aggressively. [19]
4) Any update on the SEC inquiry
Investors will watch for disclosures, reporting, or official updates related to the probe described in October coverage. [20]
5) Macro tailwinds (or headwinds) for high-multiple growth
Today’s market backdrop is supportive, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record on rate-cut optimism and renewed AI enthusiasm. If rates fall in 2026 as some investors expect, that can be constructive for longer-duration growth equities—though reversals in macro sentiment can hit momentum names quickly. [21]
Bottom line: AppLovin stock enters 2026 with powerful momentum—and equally powerful expectations
On Dec. 24, 2025, AppLovin stock is trading near $727 in a shortened holiday session, sitting at the intersection of three forces:
- Fundamental strength (outsized growth and profitability in Q3; ambitious Q4 outlook) [22]
- Rising Street targets (multiple December price-target hikes) [23]
- Persistent headline risk (ongoing regulatory scrutiny narratives) [24]
That combination is exactly why APP remains one of the most talked-about stocks in adtech and “AI advertising” going into 2026: the upside case is still being written, but the bar is high—and the stock has shown it can move sharply on both positive and negative catalysts.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.kiplinger.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.kiplinger.com, 5. press.spglobal.com, 6. investors.applovin.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. investors.applovin.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. finance.yahoo.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.investors.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. investors.applovin.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.reuters.com
