Key takeaways
- AppLovin (APP) closed Friday, 28 November 2025 at $599.48, up about 78% over the past year and trading roughly 20% below its record high of $745.61. [1]
- Norges Bank and the New York State Common Retirement Fund have disclosed major APP positions, underscoring surging institutional interest even as insiders take profits. [2]
- Q3 2025 delivered 68% revenue growth, 82% adjusted EBITDA margins and over $1 billion in free cash flow, with management guiding to another strong quarter in Q4. [3]
- The new Axon Ads Manager self‑serve platform, launched on 1 October, is seeing advertiser spending grow at roughly 50% week over week from early cohorts, making it central to the 2026 growth story. [4]
- Wall Street remains broadly positive, with most 12‑month price targets clustered around $660–$720, implying moderate upside from current levels, even as some analysts downgrade the stock on valuation concerns. [5]
Where AppLovin stock stands this weekend
As of the close on Friday, 28 November 2025, AppLovin Corporation’s Class A shares (NASDAQ: APP) finished at $599.48, up 2.24% on the day. Over the last twelve months, the stock has climbed roughly 78%, with a 52‑week range of $200.50 to $745.61. [6]
On a relative basis, APP has massively outperformed the broader market. Over the past three months, the stock is up about 24.9%, versus roughly 5.1% for the S&P 500. Year‑to‑date, APP has gained 81.1%, compared with around 15.8% for the index, and is up 77.8% over the past 52 weeks. [7]
That rally has pushed AppLovin to a market capitalization of just over $200 billion, and a rich price‑to‑earnings ratio above 70 and EV/EBITDA above 50, metrics that sit at the heart of the current valuation debate. [8]
Today’s headlines: Norway’s wealth fund and New York’s pension giant load up on APP
The freshest news around APP this weekend comes from institutional ownership disclosures.
Norges Bank’s near‑$1 billion bet
On 29 November 2025, filings summarized by MarketBeat showed that Norges Bank, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, opened a new position of about 2.72 million APP shares, valued at roughly $951.5 million. That stake represents about 0.8% ownership of AppLovin. [9]
The same report highlighted that, even as large institutions are buying, company insiders have been selling into strength. Over the last quarter:
- CEO Adam Foroughi sold just over 30,000 shares for about $16.1 million.
- Other insiders in aggregate have sold around 367,927 shares, worth approximately $212.7 million.
- Despite those sales, insiders still hold about 13.7% of the company. [10]
New York State Common Retirement Fund boosts its stake
Also on 29 November, a separate filing showed the New York State Common Retirement Fund increased its APP holdings by 62.4% in Q2, bringing its position to 346,441 shares worth roughly $121.3 million, or about 0.1% of the company. [11]
That report also notes broad participation from other heavyweight asset managers, including Price T. Rowe Associates, Vanguard and Invesco, helping push overall institutional ownership toward 42% of shares outstanding. [12]
Takeaway: Heading into December, “big money” is still accumulating APP, even after a huge run‑up—while founders and executives are diversifying. That mix of institutional conviction and insider profit‑taking is classic late‑rally behavior in high‑growth names.
Analyst sentiment: still bullish, but more selective
A new piece from Insider Monkey, published 29 November, framed AppLovin as one of the “best performing AI stocks heading into 2026”, and highlighted a string of recent target raises: [13]
- Citi reiterated a Buy rating with a $820 target (21 November).
- Wells Fargo lifted its target from $633 to $721, keeping an Overweight rating, pointing specifically to the strength of mobile gaming and solid Q4 guidance. [14]
- Piper Sandler raised its target from $740 to $800 and maintained an Overweight rating after Q3 results topped expectations and management gave strong guidance. The firm emphasized that the Axon Ads Manager rollout is going “very well,” with spending up about 50% week‑over‑week since early October. [15]
MarketBeat’s institutional‑flow articles also point to: [16]
- Bank of America hiking its target from $580 to $860 (Buy).
- UBS moving from $810 to $840 (Buy).
- Scotiabank raising from $575 to $750 (Outperform).
Across brokers tracked by MarketBeat, APP currently carries a “Moderate Buy” to “Strong Buy” skew, with 21 Buy ratings, 4 Holds and 1 Sell, and a consensus price target around $658. [17]
Other aggregators peg the consensus even higher:
- Barchart cites a mean target near $697, roughly 19% above current levels. [18]
- A 24/7 Wall St. deep dive notes a Wall Street consensus of $718.71, with its own house forecast of $680 for year‑end 2025 and $910.70 by 2030. [19]
- Investing.com’s analyst page lists a price target around $719.74, implying about 20% upside. [20]
In short, most analysts still see upside, but the distribution of targets is widening as some houses lean harder into the bull case while others turn cautious.
Q3 2025: an ad‑tech cash machine
AppLovin’s latest quarter is the foundation of both the optimism and the valuation worries.
In its official Q3 2025 results, the company reported: [21]
- Revenue: $1.405 billion, up 68% year‑on‑year, beating consensus of about $1.34 billion.
- GAAP diluted EPS:$2.45, up 96% YoY and above analyst estimates.
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.16 billion, up roughly 79%, with 82% EBITDA margins.
- Free cash flow: just over $1.05 billion, up in the 90%+ range YoY.
The company has also become aggressively shareholder‑friendly:
- It repurchased around $571 million of stock in Q3, and
- Expanded its buyback authorization by another $3.2 billion, leaving about $3.3 billion in capacity heading into Q4. [22]
For Q4 2025, management guided to: [23]
- Revenue of $1.57–$1.60 billion,
- Adjusted EBITDA of $1.29–$1.32 billion,
- EBITDA margins of 82–83%, implying sustained ultra‑high profitability.
Zacks’ post‑earnings assessment—“AppLovin Crushes Earnings: Time to Buy the Stock?”—framed the company as “one of the most profitable and efficiently run” names in its universe, pointing to the combination of explosive growth, rising margins and huge buybacks as key differentiators versus peers like Palantir and Robinhood. [24]
Axon Ads Manager: self‑serve AI advertising at the center of the story
If Q3 proved AppLovin can print cash, Axon Ads Manager is the reason bulls think that cash engine can scale much further.
From gaming specialist to AI ad platform
AppLovin’s ad stack is built around Axon, its AI engine originally honed on mobile gaming inventory. Recent company communications and independent coverage describe a deliberate pivot toward: [25]
- E‑commerce, fintech and broader performance advertising,
- A self‑serve, card‑on‑file onboarding flow,
- Deep integrations with Shopify and third‑party attribution tools,
- And AI‑generated creatives and automated campaign optimization.
On 1 October 2025, AppLovin rebranded its customer‑facing advertising platform as Axon and formally launched Axon Ads Manager, a self‑service dashboard that lets advertisers design, fund and optimize campaigns directly. [26]
Early data from management and several analyst notes converges on a striking stat:
Initial self‑serve advertisers are seeing spend grow around 50% week‑over‑week as they ramp on the platform—even though total volumes are still modest. [27]
Outside gaming, AppLovin had previously limited its pilot to roughly 600–700 advertisers with high manual touch and annual spend in the $1.5–2 million range; Axon Ads Manager is designed to remove that bottleneck and “multiply the customer base” over time, including international advertisers. [28]
Industry observers see this as a direct challenge to Meta and Google’s performance ad ecosystems. One recent piece described Axon as an “ROI‑first alternative” that leans heavily on AI‑driven bidding and audience targeting. [29]
Performance vs. valuation: bulls and skeptics split
With the Axon flywheel spinning and Q3 results smashing expectations, it’s no surprise that many analysts and commentators have called AppLovin one of the top AI growth stories of the decade. [30]
But the valuation is increasingly controversial.
- Investing.com data puts APP at a P/E above 72, EV/EBITDA above 50, and a price‑to‑book ratio above 130, levels that require continued near‑flawless execution and sustained high growth to justify. [31]
- A widely‑circulated Barchart column noted that APP has soared more than 80% YTD and nearly 78% over the past year, handily beating both the S&P 500 and key ad‑tech peers like The Trade Desk, and showed consensus targets only modestly above the current price. [32]
More cautious voices have emerged:
- A Seeking Alpha analyst recently downgraded the stock to Hold, arguing that “explosive ad growth” and global expansion are now largely reflected in the share price, while valuation has become “pricey.” [33]
- A Business Insider feature earlier in the rally noted industry skepticism around AppLovin’s meteoric rise to a $100 billion+ valuation, questioning the opacity of certain ad placements and whether performance gains are truly incremental versus existing Meta and Google budgets. [34]
At the same time, long‑term forecasts like the 24/7 Wall St. model projecting $910+ per share by 2030 show how powerful the bull narrative remains if Axon can meaningfully challenge the larger ad platforms while maintaining >80% margins. [35]
Risk check: what could go wrong?
Even with today’s positive headlines, several risks sit in the background:
- Regulatory and headline risk
- AppLovin has already faced periods of negative press and regulatory attention around its role in mobile advertising and data. Recent coverage of Q3 on AdExchanger noted that management briefly acknowledged the latest regulatory chatter on its earnings call. [36]
- Execution risk on Axon Ads Manager
- Self‑serve rollouts are notoriously bumpy. While 50% weekly spend growth is impressive, it’s off a small base; traders will be watching for evidence that Axon Ads Manager can scale beyond a curated cohort of high‑spend advertisers and into a broader long‑tail base without losing return on ad spend. [37]
- Competition from giants
- Meta, Google and other ad platforms are leaning into AI‑driven performance ads as well. AppLovin’s advantage may narrow if rivals improve targeting and automation faster than expected.
- Insider selling and high leverage
- Insider sales totaling more than $200 million over the past quarter, combined with a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 2.3, mean investors should monitor whether management keeps leaning on buybacks versus de‑leveraging. [38]
- Multiple compression
- If growth slows from today’s 60–70% revenue pace to something closer to industry norms, APP’s premium multiples could compress sharply—even if the business itself remains fundamentally healthy.
What today’s news means for APP stock
Putting everything together as of 30 November 2025:
- Price action: APP is consolidating just under $600, roughly 20% below its all‑time high, after one of the most dramatic multi‑year runs in large‑cap tech. [39]
- Fundamentals: Q3 showcased extraordinary profitability and cash generation, with guidance pointing to continued >80% margins. [40]
- Growth engine:Axon Ads Manager is the clear strategic bet, with early self‑serve spending trends validating management’s claim that AppLovin can expand far beyond gaming and tap a global base of performance advertisers. [41]
- Flows and sentiment: New filings from Norges Bank and the New York State Common Retirement Fund confirm that some of the world’s largest pools of capital are still adding APP exposure even at current valuations, while Wall Street remains broadly bullish but increasingly nuanced. [42]
For investors and traders tracking AI and advertising, today’s batch of news reinforces a simple picture: AppLovin is executing almost flawlessly on the business side, and the market is wrestling with how much that execution is worth.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. investors.applovin.com, 4. 247wallst.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.barchart.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.insidermonkey.com, 14. www.insidermonkey.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.barchart.com, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. investors.applovin.com, 22. 247wallst.com, 23. 247wallst.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. 247wallst.com, 26. finance.yahoo.com, 27. 247wallst.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.emarketer.com, 30. 247wallst.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.barchart.com, 33. seekingalpha.com, 34. www.businessinsider.com, 35. 247wallst.com, 36. www.adexchanger.com, 37. 247wallst.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.investing.com, 40. investors.applovin.com, 41. 247wallst.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com
