As of 7:43 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) was trading around $714 in late trading, down about 1.8% from the prior close after a quiet, post-Christmas session marked by thin liquidity across U.S. equities. [1]
The broader market backdrop matters for high-beta names like AppLovin: Wall Street finished Friday essentially flat and close to all-time highs, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each dipping slightly as investors paused after a multi-day run-up. Reuters quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, noting the market was “catching our breath” after a strong rally, while the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window continues into early January. [2]
Below is what investors should know about APP stock right now—covering the latest trading action, key company fundamentals, current analyst targets, and the main risks and catalysts heading into the next regular market session (Monday, Dec. 29).
APP stock price action: what happened Friday
AppLovin ended the day lower in light, post-holiday trading—a setup that can amplify moves in momentum stocks as fewer shares change hands.
Key datapoints from Friday’s session:
- Last price (late trading): about $714.23
- Day range: roughly $708–$731
- Move: about -1.8% on the day [3]
MarketBeat described the decline occurring on notably lighter-than-usual volume, estimating ~1.76 million shares traded—well below the stock’s typical pace—consistent with the low-conviction tape many investors see between Christmas and New Year’s. [4]
For context on size and liquidity, MarketWatch lists AppLovin’s market capitalization around $245.9 billion, placing it firmly among mega-cap growth leaders as 2025 ends. [5]
The bigger picture: U.S. markets near highs, “Santa Claus rally” in progress
Friday’s market action was less about new fundamentals and more about positioning and seasonality.
Reuters reported that U.S. stocks closed nominally lower in a light-volume session, snapping a five-day streak but still leaving the major indexes positioned for double-digit annual gains. The article also highlighted that the “Santa Claus rally” period—defined there as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the new year—runs through January 5. [6]
This environment often favors volatile, story-driven stocks—but it can cut both ways. With only a handful of trading days left in 2025, flows tied to year-end rebalancing, profit-taking, and window dressing can drive sharp moves without much company-specific news.
Why AppLovin remains a “must-watch” momentum stock
AppLovin’s core bull thesis has increasingly centered on its AI-driven advertising stack—including the company’s MAX mediation platform and its AXON machine-learning engine—rather than its legacy identity as a mobile-gaming-adjacent business.
A Nasdaq analysis described AppLovin’s strategic shift as a move toward becoming a more “pure” advertising technology platform after divesting its apps/gaming exposure, emphasizing the growing role of AI in optimizing ad placement and yield. [7]
That strategic focus was reinforced by the company’s dealmaking: Reuters reported in 2025 that game developer Tripledot Studios agreed to buy AppLovin’s mobile games studio portfolio for about $800 million in cash and stock, including a statement from CEO Adam Foroughi underscoring that AppLovin “never” viewed itself primarily as a game developer. [8]
The market’s takeaway: AppLovin is increasingly valued as a high-margin, AI-optimized advertising platform—and investors are pricing the stock accordingly.
Fundamentals check: AppLovin’s latest reported results and guidance
The most recent official quarterly results from the company remain the anchor for any valuation debate.
In its third-quarter 2025 release (reported Nov. 5, 2025), AppLovin posted:
- Revenue:$1.405 billion (Q3 2025)
- Net income:$836 million
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.158 billion (an exceptionally high margin profile)
- Free cash flow:about $1.05 billion for the quarter [9]
AppLovin also issued fourth-quarter 2025 guidance in the same release:
- Revenue:$1.57B to $1.60B
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.29B to $1.32B [10]
Capital returns have been a key part of the story, too. The company said it repurchased/withheld 1.3 million shares for $571 million in Q3 and that its board expanded share repurchase authorization, leaving $3.3 billion remaining as of the end of October. [11]
For investors, that combination—rapid growth + very high profitability + aggressive buybacks—is the core reason APP continues to trade like a premium momentum compounder.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is signaling
Consensus targets vary—here’s the range investors are watching
Depending on the data source and refresh date, AppLovin’s consensus price targets show meaningful dispersion:
- Investing.com shows an average 12‑month target around $739.96, with a high estimate near $860 and a low near $458. [12]
- MarketWatch similarly lists targets with a high at $860, a low at $458, and an average around the mid‑$700s. [13]
- MarketBeat’s dataset shows a lower consensus near $695.90, implying some analysts see limited upside after the massive run. [14]
The important signal isn’t the exact mean—it’s the width of outcomes. When a stock has run as hard as APP, targets can lag the price, reset sharply, or diverge widely depending on whether an analyst believes AppLovin’s margin structure and growth pace are sustainable.
Recent notable analyst moves
Several widely followed notes and press coverage point to continued optimism from key firms:
- Wedbush: Benzinga reported that Alicia Reese maintained an Outperform rating and raised her price target to $800 after upbeat results. [15]
- Jefferies: Investopedia reported Jefferies named AppLovin a top internet pick heading into 2026 and cited a Street-high target of $860, tied to expected platform changes in the first half of 2026 that could broaden access to AppLovin’s referral-based advertising product. [16]
- BTIG: Benzinga also noted BTIG raised its price target to $705 while maintaining a Buy stance. [17]
One interpretation: analysts are still largely constructive, but targets increasingly reflect a market that has already priced in a lot of good news.
Valuation: the premium multiple is part of the debate
With APP near the mid‑$700s and a mega-cap valuation, investors are no longer asking whether AppLovin is “working”—they’re asking how long the current economics can persist.
- MarketBeat lists APP at a high P/E multiple (mid‑80s in its figures) and a beta above 2.5, underscoring the stock’s tendency to move more than the broader market. [18]
- A Nasdaq/Zacks-style analysis framed APP as trading at a very elevated forward earnings multiple relative to broader industry norms—typical of a market pricing durable growth and strong operating leverage. [19]
In practical terms, that means APP can still rise—especially in risk-on tapes—but expectations are high, and any growth scare can reprice the stock quickly.
Key risks investors should keep on the radar
Even bulls generally acknowledge that AppLovin carries headline and regulatory sensitivity. Here are the main risk buckets that continue to surface in reputable reporting:
1) Regulatory scrutiny and data practices
Reuters reported in October 2025 that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had been probing AppLovin’s data-collection practices, following a whistleblower complaint and short-seller reports—while also noting the regulator had not publicly accused the company of wrongdoing at that time. [20]
2) Short-seller allegations
AppLovin has faced repeated short-seller criticism. Investopedia reported in March 2025 that Muddy Waters alleged “scammy” practices and accused the company of data misappropriation and terms-of-service violations, following other critical reports from short sellers earlier that year. [21]
3) The “high expectations” problem
When a stock becomes a market darling, the bar rises each quarter. Even a strong report can trigger selling if guidance, KPIs, or qualitative commentary fail to exceed elevated expectations—especially heading into a new year when many funds reset risk budgets.
Trading and technical chatter: what the market is watching
While fundamentals matter most for long-horizon investors, shorter-term flows can dominate in late December.
Investor’s Business Daily highlighted AppLovin as a stock in or near buy zones in late December and also discussed bullish options structures tied to the idea that APP could hold key levels into January expiration. [22]
You don’t have to trade options to use this information: it can be a clue to where market participants see support and resistance and how sentiment is leaning into year-end.
If you’re holding APP: what to know before the next market session
Because it is after the closing bell right now, investors should frame Monday’s open around three themes: liquidity, headlines, and catalysts.
1) Expect continued holiday liquidity effects
Reuters emphasized Friday’s session was light and conviction was limited. That dynamic often persists into the final trading days of the year, and it can make opening moves on Monday feel exaggerated. [23]
Practical takeaway: consider limit orders rather than market orders if you plan to trade around the open, especially in a volatile, high-dollar stock.
2) Watch for headline risk over the weekend
For APP specifically, investors tend to react strongly to:
- regulatory or compliance headlines
- short-seller follow-ups
- large analyst upgrades/downgrades
- major partner/platform policy changes
Given the history of scrutiny reported by Reuters and Investopedia, APP can gap on news. [24]
3) Keep earnings timing on your calendar—but confirm the date
Many market calendars currently cluster AppLovin’s next report in mid-February 2026, but published estimates differ across platforms:
Because AppLovin’s investor relations events page doesn’t yet clearly show a Q4 2025 earnings date, treat these as estimates until the company posts an official announcement. [27]
Bottom line for AppLovin stock as 2025 ends
AppLovin enters the final sessions of 2025 as one of the market’s most closely watched growth momentum names—supported by exceptionally strong profitability, aggressive buybacks, and a strategy centered on AI-driven advertising scale. [28]
At the same time, the stock’s premium valuation and history of regulatory and short-seller headlines make it prone to sharp moves—especially in thin year-end markets. [29]
For Monday, the setup is straightforward: watch whether broader markets stay risk-on as the Santa Claus rally window continues, and monitor whether APP holds recent support levels with normalizing volume as traders return from the holiday lull. [30]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. investors.applovin.com, 10. investors.applovin.com, 11. investors.applovin.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.benzinga.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.benzinga.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.investors.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.zacks.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. investors.applovin.com, 28. investors.applovin.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
