New York, Jan 27, 2026, 18:39 EST — After-hours
AppLovin Corp (APP.O) shares ended Tuesday 1.5% higher at $543.56, marking a second straight day of gains for the ad-tech firm. 1
Needham & Company bumped AppLovin up to “buy” from “hold” on Monday, tagging a $700 price target. The firm pointed to stronger-than-expected e-commerce ad growth in 2026, noting the stock remains well off last month’s highs. Analyst Bernie McTernan raised his 2026 e-commerce revenue forecast to $1.45 billion from $1.05 billion, writing, “We upgrade APP to Buy… following additional work on ecommerce giving us more confidence in the trajectory of ecommerce revenue growth in ’26E.” Needham also outlined a bull scenario where AppLovin’s ramp mirrors TikTok’s rise and highlighted broader tailwinds like richer ad formats and increased mobile spending. 2
The upgrade comes as AppLovin pushes to prove its Axon tools can expand beyond mobile gaming into web shopping ads, following a strong rally last year and a sluggish start to 2026. Needham’s survey of over 2,200 websites found 435 using AppLovin as of Jan. 21, highlighting new clients like Kalshi and Etsy. The Axon Pixel plug-in integrates via Shopify or Google’s campaign set-up tools. However, neither Etsy nor Kalshi confirmed the partnerships, and McTernan warned it’s “still early days” for the self-service push launched late last year. 3
AppLovin’s pitch is simple: it’s expanding from app-install ads into web commerce. That move promises bigger figures but also invites closer scrutiny.
Traders are now weighing if this broker upgrade signals a broader trend or just a brief rebound in a stock that’s been volatile with every new data point linked to its web advertising efforts.
Optimism in the latest notes hinges on execution: securing more advertisers, boosting their spend, and delivering consistent results so brands won’t see the platform as just a quick trial.
Talk of a TikTok-style surge raises expectations. Investors want clear proof the funnel is widening, not merely a few clients shifting their spend.
Still, plenty can derail the story. If initial brand tests flop or spending growth turns uneven, the forecast-driven thesis could unravel fast — particularly after a sharp rally that’s already tested investors’ tolerance for disappointment.
The company’s own update is the next major milestone.
AppLovin will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 11 after the U.S. market closes. The results will be accompanied by a webcast featuring CEO Adam Foroughi and CFO Matthew Stumpf. 4
