Ares Management Corporation (NYSE: ARES) just delivered one of its biggest single‑day moves of 2025 — and the story isn’t over yet.
On Tuesday, December 9, 2025, ARES stock jumped 7.27% to close at $176.20, with heavy volume as traders and institutions rushed to position ahead of its upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500. In the after‑hours session, the stock ticked higher again, trading around $177–177.20, adding roughly another 0.3–0.6% as fresh M&A news crossed the wires. [1]
With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and an important Goldman Sachs conference appearance on deck for Wednesday, December 10, Ares is firmly on the short‑term watchlist for both traders and long‑term investors. [2]
Key Takeaways for ARES Before the December 10 Open
- Big move, big volume: ARES closed at $176.20, up 7.27% on the day, with over 15 million shares changing hands — well above typical daily volume. [3]
- After‑hours follow‑through: In post‑market trading, shares traded around $177.20, up about 0.57% from the close. [4]
- Major catalyst: Ares will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500 before the open on Thursday, December 11, driving index‑tracking demand and speculative buying. [5]
- Fresh deal news after the bell: Ares agreed to acquire a majority stake in Redback Boot Company in a deal valued around AUD 100 million (~$66 million), expected to close in Q1 2026. [6]
- Structural growth story: The firm has just launched Marq Logistics, a global logistics real estate platform overseeing more than 600 million square feet of industrial space worldwide, following the integration of GLP’s international logistics business. [7]
- Street view: ARES carries a consensus “Buy” rating from around 14 analysts, with a 12‑month target near $189, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels after today’s spike. [8]
- Goldman Sachs conviction pick: Goldman has added Ares to its U.S. Conviction List, projecting 20%+ annual earnings growth over the next two years and highlighting the stock as attractive versus peers. [9]
- Macro wild card: Markets are pricing in a high probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday afternoon, a key macro event for rate‑sensitive alternative asset managers like Ares. [10]
How Ares Management Stock Traded on December 9, 2025
Regular session: breakout day for ARES
According to Investing.com data, ARES: [11]
- Opened: $178.81
- Day’s range: $173.53 – $179.71
- Closed: $176.20
- Daily gain: +$11.94 (+7.27%)
- Volume: ~15.4 million shares, far above recent averages
This move came on a day when the broader S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Dow fell 0.4% ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision — highlighting just how idiosyncratic the Ares rally was compared to the overall market. [12]
After the bell: gains extend on deal headlines
MarketScreener’s extended‑hours data show that once the regular session ended at 4:00 p.m. ET, ARES continued to attract buyers: by about 5:42 p.m. ET, the stock was quoted around $177.20, up roughly 0.57% in after‑hours trading. [13]
The after‑bell uptick coincided with news that Ares had agreed to acquire a majority stake in Australian footwear maker Redback Boot Company Pty. Limited in a transaction valued around AUD 100 million, based on industry estimates. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, pending customary conditions. [14]
For Wednesday’s open, that puts ARES in the classic “strong close plus positive after‑hours” setup that momentum traders often watch.
Why Ares Management Stock Is Surging: The S&P 500 Effect
Joining the S&P 500 on December 11
The main driver of Tuesday’s rally is clear: index inclusion.
On December 8, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Ares Management will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500, effective prior to the open on Thursday, December 11, as Mars completes its acquisition of Kellanova. [15]
Index inclusion has several important implications:
- Forced buying from index funds
Passive strategies and ETFs that track the S&P 500 will need to add ARES and remove Kellanova, typically around the effective date. That can create a surge in demand and trading volume concentrated around December 10–11. - Higher visibility and liquidity
Joining the S&P 500 often brings more analyst coverage, more institutional ownership and tighter spreads, which can support the valuation over time. - Re‑rating potential
As Barron’s and other outlets have noted in recent days, Ares was one of the larger U.S. companies not yet in the index; the move is being seen as a recognition of its scale and importance in the fast‑growing private credit and alternative asset management sector. [16]
Tuesday’s price action suggests that traders are aggressively pricing in these technical tailwinds ahead of the final S&P 500 rebalance.
Beyond the Index: Strategic Moves Fueling the Bull Case
The S&P 500 story sits on top of a broader fundamental narrative that’s been building over the past few weeks.
1. Marq Logistics: a 600‑million‑square‑foot logistics giant
On December 1, Ares announced Marq Logistics, a unified brand for its global logistics real estate platform.
- Marq combines Ares’ North American and European logistics platforms with the GLP logistics business outside China, which Ares acquired earlier this year. [17]
- The platform now manages more than 600 million square feet of logistics facilities across the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific. [18]
For investors, Marq matters because:
- It scales up a high‑demand asset class — logistics and warehouses — that benefits from e‑commerce, near‑shoring and supply‑chain resilience trends.
- It provides fee‑rich, long‑duration real estate income, smoothing Ares’ earnings profile across cycles.
Recent coverage from Reuters, Business Wire and industry outlets has framed Marq as a major step in building Ares into a global logistics heavyweight within its real estate business. [19]
2. New deal: majority stake in Redback Boot Company
The after‑hours announcement that Ares will acquire a majority stake in Redback Boot Company, an Australian work‑boot manufacturer, adds another small but telling piece to the puzzle. [20]
Key points:
- Deal size: Estimated around AUD 100 million (~$66 million), based on industry speculation cited in S&P Capital IQ reporting.
- Timing: Signed on December 9, 2025, with expected closing in Q1 2026, subject to customary conditions. [21]
While modest relative to Ares’ nearly $600 billion in assets under management, the transaction underscores the firm’s ongoing appetite for control‑oriented private equity deals in consumer and industrial brands. [22]
3. Ares as a private‑markets “system player”
Ares is also increasingly at the center of regulatory and market‑structure conversations:
- The Bank of England has launched a system‑wide stress test of private markets, and Ares is among the alternative asset managers participating, alongside names like Blackstone, Apollo and KKR. [23]
Participation in the exercise highlights two things:
- Regulators are more focused than ever on the risks and importance of private credit.
- Ares is positioning itself as a cooperative, systemically important player, which may reassure some institutional investors wary of opaque private-credit risk.
What Wall Street Is Saying: Valuation, Targets and Growth
Consensus ratings and price targets
StockAnalysis data show that: [24]
- Around 14 analysts currently cover ARES.
- The average rating is “Buy.”
- The 12‑month consensus price target is about $189.15, roughly 7% above Tuesday’s close after the rally.
From a valuation perspective:
- ARES trades at roughly 74x trailing earnings and around 29x forward earnings, with a dividend yield near 2.5%. [25]
Those are premium multiples versus many traditional asset managers, but bulls argue they reflect:
- Ares’ faster expected earnings growth,
- The recurring, fee‑driven nature of much of its revenue, and
- Its position at the center of the expanding private credit ecosystem.
Goldman Sachs: Conviction List & 20%+ growth call
Goldman Sachs recently added Ares to its U.S. Conviction List, signaling high confidence in the stock’s risk‑reward profile.
According to a Gurufocus summary of Goldman’s note: [26]
- Goldman expects more than 20% annual earnings growth at Ares over the next two years,
- Views ARES as undervalued vs. peers, despite the sector’s high multiples, and
- Maintains a Buy‑type stance as alternative asset managers recover from a rough stretch earlier in 2025.
Recent Barron’s coverage likewise argued that Ares’ earlier sell‑off — amid worries about private‑credit defaults — may have been overdone, especially given expectations for strong 2026 earnings growth. [27]
The Macro Backdrop: Fed Day and Private Credit Jitters
Wednesday, December 10, is not just about Ares — it’s a major macro event.
Fed decision: rate cut odds high
Investopedia’s live markets coverage notes that U.S. markets are pricing roughly an 87% chance the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at Wednesday’s meeting, taking the target range to 3.5–3.75%. [28]
For Ares and its peers, lower rates can be a mixed bag:
- Positive: A gentler rate path supports risk assets, lowers funding costs and may stimulate deal activity and demand for private credit.
- Negative: Easing can compress yields and spread income over time, though many private‑credit deals are floating‑rate and can be repriced.
Credit fears and regulatory scrutiny
Goldman Sachs and others have been vocal about credit‑risk fears in the private‑credit market, but have also argued those fears may be creating long‑term buying opportunities in alternative asset managers such as Ares. [29]
At the same time, the Bank of England’s private‑markets stress test, which Ares has joined, underlines that regulators are watching closely. [30]
For investors, the message is:
- The reward is exposure to a high‑growth segment of global finance.
- The risk is that a deeper‑than‑expected credit downturn or regulatory clampdown could hit earnings and multiples.
Near‑Term Catalysts: What to Watch Before and During the December 10 Session
Here’s what should be on your radar for ARES on Wednesday:
1. Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference (8:40 a.m. ET)
Ares has confirmed that CEO Michael Arougheti will present at the 2025 Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Wednesday, December 10 at 8:40 a.m. ET, with a live webcast available via Ares’ investor relations site. [31]
Potential watchpoints from that appearance:
- Any updated commentary on fundraising, deployment and fee‑related earnings,
- Management’s view on private credit risk, defaults and the BoE stress‑test,
- Color on integration of the Marq Logistics platform and new deals like Redback Boot,
- Guidance or tone about the impact of S&P 500 inclusion on shareholder base and liquidity.
Unexpectedly bullish or cautious remarks could easily move the stock pre‑market.
2. Pre‑market and early trading flows
Given the huge move on Tuesday and the technical flows around S&P 500 inclusion:
- Watch for profit‑taking vs. momentum chasing in the first hour of trading.
- Keep an eye on pre‑market volume — heavy trading before the bell could signal additional institutional positioning, either to build stakes or to trim into strength.
Some index‑tracking and “closet index” managers may begin staging into positions early, though many will likely wait until after Wednesday’s close to minimize tracking error.
3. Fed decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and press conference
The Fed’s 2 p.m. ET statement, followed by the press conference, will likely move:
- Treasuries and credit spreads,
- Equity indexes, and
- Sentiment toward financials and alternative asset managers.
If the Fed:
- Cuts as expected and signals comfort with the outlook, high‑beta financials like Ares could benefit from a risk‑on reaction.
- Sounds more hawkish than expected, markets may re‑price rate‑cut expectations, which could pressure ARES along with broader risk assets.
4. S&P 500 rebalance positioning
Although Ares’ actual index inclusion is effective Thursday, December 11, Wednesday is the last full session before the change takes effect.
Historically, much of the index‑fund trading happens:
- Near the close on the day before inclusion, or
- At the open on the effective date, depending on strategy.
For ARES, that means late‑day order imbalances on Wednesday could be significant, potentially causing price swings into the close.
Bigger Picture: Is ARES Now a Momentum Trade or a Long‑Term Story?
Whether Ares Management looks attractive at these levels depends heavily on your timeframe and risk tolerance.
Bullish arguments
Supporters of ARES will point to:
- Scale and diversification: Around $595 billion in assets under management across private credit, private equity, real assets and secondaries, giving Ares a diversified fee base and global footprint. [32]
- Secular growth in private credit: Corporates increasingly turn to private lenders rather than traditional banks, feeding Ares’ core credit franchise.
- Marq Logistics and real‑estate scale: 600M+ square feet of logistics space provides a durable, global platform aligned with long‑term e‑commerce trends. [33]
- Strong growth forecasts: Consensus expectations for earnings growth, plus Goldman’s >20% annual growth call, support a premium valuation. [34]
- S&P 500 inclusion: Adds structural demand, visibility and potential multiple support over time.
Bearish and risk considerations
Skeptics highlight:
- Valuation risk: Even after earlier 2025 weakness, ARES still trades at a rich multiple of earnings and book value compared to many financials. [35]
- Credit‑cycle sensitivity: A sharp deterioration in credit quality or a cluster of high‑profile defaults could hit both performance fees and sentiment toward private credit managers. [36]
- Regulatory overhang: The Bank of England’s stress test and growing global scrutiny of private credit indicate a regulatory regime that is tightening, not loosening. [37]
- Short‑term technical risk: After a double‑digit percentage jump in two sessions (counting the pre‑announcement rally), ARES is vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if index inflows or news flow underwhelm.
How Traders and Investors Might Approach ARES (General Considerations Only)
This is not investment advice, just a framework you can adapt to your own research.
- Short‑term traders may focus on:
- Pre‑market reaction to the Goldman Sachs conference,
- Intraday liquidity and volatility near Wednesday’s close, and
- The potential “S&P 500 inclusion spike” around Thursday’s open and close.
- Longer‑term investors might:
- Revisit Ares’ fundamentals, including fee‑related earnings, fundraising trends and balance‑sheet leverage,
- Stress‑test their own views on credit risk and regulation in private markets,
- Decide whether the post‑announcement move has simply brought the stock closer to fair value or whether the growth story still justifies upside from here.
Bottom Line
After the bell on December 9, 2025, Ares Management looks like a stock at the intersection of powerful technical forces and a complex macro story:
- It’s rallying hard into S&P 500 inclusion.
- It’s adding new deals and scaling up logistics real estate through Marq.
- It’s been singled out by Goldman Sachs as a conviction growth name.
- And it operates in a private‑credit universe that central banks and regulators are now actively stress‑testing.
Heading into the December 10 open, ARES is likely to remain highly sensitive to:
- Management’s tone at the Goldman Sachs conference,
- The Fed’s rate decision and guidance, and
- Ongoing positioning ahead of Thursday’s S&P 500 rebalance.
As always, anyone considering trading or investing in ARES should combine this news flow with their own research, risk management and, where appropriate, professional financial advice.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.marketscreener.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. www.marketscreener.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.gurufocus.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.marketscreener.com, 14. www.marketscreener.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. eu.glp.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. www.gurufocus.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. eu.glp.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.barrons.com, 37. www.bankofengland.co.uk
