Ares Management Corporation (NYSE: ARES) is suddenly one of Wall Street’s most-watched financial stocks. Here’s what’s driving ARES today, how the business is performing, and what analysts expect next.
ARES stock today: rally fueled by S&P 500 inclusion
Ares Management shares are jumping again on 10 December 2025, extending a powerful rally that began after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed that ARES will join the S&P 500 before the market opens on Thursday, 11 December 2025, replacing snack maker Kellanova, which is being acquired by Mars Inc. [1]
- In premarket trading on 10 December, ARES was up about 11% to roughly $183, according to Reuters’ market note on the inclusion. [2]
- Around midday, the stock is trading near $176 per share, up about 7% on the day and roughly flat to slightly positive for 2025 after having been down about 7% for the year before the news. [3]
- Over the past 12 months, ARES has traded between roughly $111 and $200, giving the company a market capitalization near $58 billion. [4]
The move into the S&P 500 matters because index-tracking funds now have to buy ARES, creating mechanical demand for the stock. Reuters and S&P Dow Jones Indices both highlight that Ares is joining a club that already includes alternative asset managers Blackstone, KKR and Apollo Global Management, all of which entered the S&P 500 in the last couple of years. [5]
The Daily Upside notes that Ares’ stock jumped about 7% on Tuesday, 9 December as investors digested the announcement, cutting the stock’s year‑to‑date loss to just under 2% and outperforming peers like KKR and Blackstone, which remain down closer to high-single digits for 2025. [6]
What Ares Management actually does
Ares Management is not a traditional bank or mutual fund company. It’s a global alternative investment manager that runs money across:
- Credit (direct lending, alternative credit, liquid credit, opportunistic and APAC credit)
- Real assets (real estate and infrastructure)
- Private equity
- Secondaries (buying stakes in existing private funds) [7]
According to the company’s own profile, as of 30 September 2025 Ares managed about $596 billion in assets under management (AUM), making it one of the largest players in alternatives globally. Credit is the core of the platform, at about $391.5 billion of AUM, with real assets at $132.4 billion, private equity at $25.1 billion, secondaries at $38.4 billion and other businesses at $8.4 billion. [8]
The firm employs roughly 4,200 people across more than 55 offices worldwide and maintains relationships with around 2,700 institutional investors, including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies. [9]
This scale – especially in private credit, where Ares makes loans outside traditional banks – is central to the bull case. Morgan Stanley estimates the global private credit market has already reached about $3 trillion and could hit $5 trillion by 2029, according to figures cited in recent coverage of Ares’ S&P 500 move. [10]
Q3 2025 results: record fundraising, rapidly growing fees
The latest numbers investors are trading on come from Ares’ third‑quarter 2025 results, released on 3 November 2025:
- GAAP net income attributable to Ares: $288.9 million
- GAAP EPS: $1.15 per Class A share
- After‑tax realized income: $425.8 million, or $1.19 per share
- Fee‑related earnings (FRE): $471.2 million for the quarter [11]
An analysis of the earnings by Investing.com highlights just how strong the growth has been:
- Total revenue for Q3 2025 was about $1.66 billion, up from $1.13 billion a year earlier (roughly 47% growth).
- Fee-related earnings grew around 39% year‑over‑year, with FRE margins north of 40%.
- Income before taxes nearly doubled, from about $327 million in Q3 2024 to roughly $652 million in Q3 2025. [12]
From a fundraising and deployment standpoint, Ares has been on a tear:
- In a company update, Ares said Q3 set new records with more than $30 billion in capital raised and over $41 billion deployed, both above previous peaks. [13]
- AUM, fee‑paying AUM and management fees all grew about 28% year‑over‑year in the quarter, with the firm holding roughly $150 billion in available capital (“dry powder”) at the end of Q3. [14]
The firm also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.12 per Class A share, payable on 31 December 2025 to shareholders of record on 17 December, and introduced a dividend reinvestment program for common stockholders. [15]
For shareholders, this combination of fast‑growing fees, recurring management income, and scaling AUM is the core fundamental driver behind the recent share price strength.
New initiatives and deals: logistics real estate, healthcare and government services
Beyond the index inclusion, Ares has announced a string of strategic moves in late 2025 that show where management is leaning for future growth.
1. Marq Logistics: unifying a 600M‑square‑foot logistics empire
On 1 December 2025, Ares launched Marq Logistics, a new global brand that unifies its logistics real estate platforms – including Ares Industrial Management in North America and Europe and the international GLP logistics business acquired in March 2025 – under a single umbrella. [16]
- Marq represents a vertically integrated logistics real estate platform managing more than 600 million square feet of properties across the Americas, Europe and Asia‑Pacific.
- The company describes its Real Estate platform as holding roughly $110 billion of AUM within one of its “highest conviction” sectors. [17]
Logistics real estate is a long‑term bet on e‑commerce, supply‑chain resilience and global trade. With Marq, Ares is positioning itself as a top‑three global player in this niche, according to its own statements. [18]
2. Aledade: $500 million credit facility in healthcare
Also on 1 December 2025, primary‑care network Aledade announced a $500 million senior secured credit facility led by Ares Credit funds, with the ability to expand to $650 million. [19]
Aledade says the financing doubles its committed capacity and will support the expansion of value‑based care programs across the U.S., where the company already works with over 20,000 clinicians in 2,400 practices. [20]
For Ares, the deal underscores its role as a major lender in healthcare services, a sector that tends to show more resilience through economic cycles.
3. MGT: creating a “unicorn” in SLED services
On 3 December 2025, Ares Credit funds closed a $350 million strategic investment in MGT, a technology and advisory firm serving state, local and education (SLED) government clients. The transaction values MGT at $1.25 billion, giving it self‑described “unicorn” status and bringing Ares alongside existing investors Vistria, J.P. Morgan and WhiteHorse Capital. [21]
The deal highlights Ares’ appetite for mission‑critical government and education services, where recurring budgets and long‑term contracts can support steady returns.
4. Ansley Park Capital: record $400 million ABS deal
Ares‑affiliated Ansley Park Capital, an equipment finance platform within Ares’ Alternative Credit business, recently closed its first asset‑backed securitisation (ABS) of more than $400 million, described as the largest first‑time issuance in the large‑ticket equipment finance market. [22]
The transaction was oversubscribed across all tranches and is being cited as evidence of the strength of Ares’ structured‑credit capabilities and investor demand for its deals.
Taken together, these moves paint Ares as a multi‑engine growth story: scaling global logistics real estate, deepening its footprint in healthcare lending, backing fast‑growing tech‑enabled services and building securitization platforms.
Big money moves: CalPERS trims, Amundi adds, insiders sell
Fresh 13F and ownership reports show that large institutions and insiders have been actively repositioning around ARES in 2025.
- The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) reduced its position by about 15.5% in the second quarter, ending with 269,561 shares worth roughly $46.7 million, representing about 0.08% of the company. [23]
- In contrast, Amundi increased its stake by about 82% in the same period, to 291,171 shares valued at approximately $51.8 million, or about 0.09% of Ares’ equity. [24]
MarketBeat’s compilation of holdings suggests that more than half of Ares’ shares are owned by institutional investors and hedge funds, underlining how heavily the name is held in professional portfolios. [25]
On the insider side, CEO Michael Arougheti and others have been taking profits:
- One recent filing shows Arougheti selling over 180,000 shares at an average price in the low‑$150s, a transaction worth around $28 million. [26]
- Across the past 90 days, insiders have reportedly sold around 590,000 shares with proceeds exceeding $90 million, leaving insiders with about 0.5% of the stock. [27]
Insider selling after a big run‑up isn’t uncommon in asset managers where executives are heavily stock‑compensated, but it does add a note of caution for momentum‑oriented investors.
Analyst ratings and ARES stock forecast for 2026
Wall Street remains broadly positive on Ares Management stock, although expectations are now tempered by the recent rally and rich valuation.
Consensus ratings: mostly “Buy”
- MarketBeat aggregates 17 analyst ratings and classifies ARES as a “Moderate Buy”, with 13 Buy and 4 Hold recommendations and no Sell ratings. [28]
- StockAnalysis, using a subset of 13 covering analysts, labels the stock a straight “Buy”. [29]
- A Reuters‑compiled snapshot distributed via TradingView notes that 12 of 18 brokerages rate Ares a Buy or better, with the rest at Hold. [30]
Taken together, the sell‑side view is clearly bullish, but not unanimously aggressive.
12‑month price targets: mid‑$180s to high‑$180s on average
Different data providers arrive at slightly different numbers, but they’re clustered in a tight band:
- MarketBeat’s 17‑analyst set shows an average 12‑month price target of about $187.46, with a low of $156 and a high of $215 – implying roughly 6% upside from the mid‑$170s. [31]
- StockAnalysis reports an average target of about $189.15, again with a range of $156 to $215 and suggesting around 7% upside over the next year. [32]
- A Reuters median estimate cited in premarket coverage pegs the median target near $188.5. [33]
Another forecast hub, TradingView’s ARES forecast page, shows a consensus target around $185–185+, with a similar low‑to‑high range of $156–$205. [34]
In short, most traditional analysts now see mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels over the next 12 months, after the S&P 500‑driven pop.
Quant and algorithmic forecasts: very bullish, but high‑risk
Outside the mainstream analyst community, algorithmic‑forecast sites are more aggressive:
- StockScan projects an average ARES price of roughly $331 in 2026, implying potential upside approaching 90% from around $176 today, with scenarios ranging between the high‑$200s and high‑$300s. [35]
- Intellectia’s month‑by‑month 2026 model sketches paths where ARES could trade between the mid‑$170s and mid‑$270s depending on the month, implying potential returns of 40% or more in some scenarios. [36]
These tools can be useful for what‑if modeling, but they are not based on fundamental research and can change rapidly with price momentum. They should be treated as speculative rather than as firm predictions.
Valuation check: premium multiples and private‑credit risks
With ARES now trading in the mid‑$170s, valuation has become the main sticking point for skeptics.
According to recent MarketBeat data:
- Ares trades at a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio near 76x based on trailing earnings.
- Its price‑to‑earnings‑to‑growth (PEG) ratio sits around 1.3, meaning the P/E is high but somewhat supported by expected earnings growth.
- The stock carries a beta of about 1.5, indicating higher volatility than the broader market. [37]
Some quantitative valuation models are downright harsh. One “Excess Returns” framework highlighted on Yahoo Finance argues that Ares may be overvalued by more than 400% versus its estimate of fair value, underscoring how sensitive some models are to assumptions about future cash flows and discount rates. [38]
On the other hand, bullish analysts argue that:
- Ares has high‑visibility fee income supported by large pools of permanent or long‑dated capital (perpetual capital rose more than 50% year‑over‑year to about $190 billion in Q3). [39]
- The firm sits at the center of a secular shift toward private credit, which is growing faster than traditional bank lending and public bond markets. [40]
Still, investors have to balance those positives against key risks:
- Credit cycle risk
Ares is heavily exposed to leveraged borrowers via private credit and alternative credit strategies. A sharp economic downturn or spike in defaults would pressure performance fees and potentially capital values. - Liquidity and transparency
The private markets where Ares operates can be illiquid and opaque, a concern regulators and commentators have emphasized as private credit grows. [41] - Regulatory scrutiny
As non‑bank lenders become systemically more important, regulators in the U.S., U.K. and EU are signalling a desire to better monitor risk in private markets. That could lead to additional reporting requirements or capital constraints over time. - Execution risk in new platforms
Scaling complex platforms like Marq Logistics and Ansley Park’s ABS engine requires strong underwriting and integration. Missteps in sectors like logistics real estate or big‑ticket equipment finance could dent returns. [42] - Post‑inclusion digestion
Stocks often rally into S&P 500 additions and then consolidate or pull back once passive flows are satisfied. With ARES now priced for strong execution, any earnings hiccup could trigger a sharp reaction.
Ares Management outlook: what to watch after the S&P 500 debut
From a news and fundamentals perspective as of 10 December 2025, Ares Management presents a mixed but compelling picture:
Positives for the ARES bull case
- Index tailwind: S&P 500 inclusion forces incremental buying from passive funds and raises the firm’s profile with global allocators. [43]
- Strong recent execution: Q3 2025 delivered record fundraising, robust earnings growth and expanding fee income, with AUM up 28% year‑over‑year and substantial dry powder still to deploy. [44]
- Growth platforms in place: Marq Logistics, the Aledade credit facility, MGT investment and Ansley Park’s ABS deal all reinforce Ares’ ability to find and scale high‑conviction opportunities across real estate, healthcare and government services. [45]
- Supportive analyst backdrop: The majority of covering analysts rate ARES a Buy or Moderate Buy, with consensus price targets a little above today’s levels. [46]
Key questions for cautious investors
- Is a mid‑70s P/E multiple sustainable for an alternative asset manager in a credit‑heavy business? [47]
- How resilient will private credit portfolios be if default rates rise from historically low levels?
- Will regulatory efforts to increase transparency in private markets meaningfully affect margins or capital requirements for firms like Ares?
For now, the market is signalling that it’s willing to pay a premium for Ares’ growth, diversification and scale. The S&P 500 inclusion acts as both a validation and a liquidity catalyst, but it also raises the bar: from here, investors will expect continued double‑digit earnings growth, healthy fundraising and disciplined credit performance to justify the valuation.
Bottom line
As of 10 December 2025, Ares Management stock sits at the intersection of three powerful themes:
- The rise of private credit and alternatives in global portfolios
- The mechanical demand created by S&P 500 index inclusion
- A fundamental story of rapid AUM growth, fee expansion and new strategic platforms
Whether ARES stock is a buy at these levels depends on your view of private‑credit risk, interest‑rate trajectories and the durability of Ares’ growth engine. What is clear from today’s news flow and recent filings is that Wall Street, major institutions and the index committees are all paying close attention.
References
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